Mademoiselle Posted May 21, 2008 #1 Share Posted May 21, 2008 http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080521/pl_nm/...oll_politics_dc "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the U.S. presidential rivals turn their focus to a general election race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. Obama, who was tied with McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup last month, moved to a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over the Arizona senator in May as he took command of his grueling Democratic presidential duel with rival Hillary Clinton. The Illinois senator has not yet secured the Democratic presidential nomination to run against McCain in November. The poll also found Obama expanded his lead over Clinton in the Democratic race to 26 percentage points, doubling his advantage from mid-April as Democrats begin to coalesce around Obama and prepare for the general election battle with McCain. "Obama has been very resilient, bouncing back from rough periods and doing very well with independent voters," pollster John Zogby said. "The race with McCain is going to be very competitive." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztec Warrior Posted May 21, 2008 #2 Share Posted May 21, 2008 Wednesday, May 21, 2008 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 44%. link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AROCES Posted May 21, 2008 #3 Share Posted May 21, 2008 Polls are polls, they been wrong the last 2 Presidential election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mademoiselle Posted May 21, 2008 Author #4 Share Posted May 21, 2008 Polls are polls, they been wrong the last 2 Presidential election. this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted May 29, 2008 #5 Share Posted May 29, 2008 The pre-election polls are merely opinion polls, asking potential voters who they would vote for, or who's positions on the issues they agree with at the time. Exit polls asks voters who they did vote for. The biggest problem with opinion polls is that many of the polled don't take the time to actually vote. One of the discrepancies between the exit polls and the actual voter tallies from the last two presidential elections is due in part because in some places(remember Florida?)exit poll results were made public before the actual polling was closed, which has an influence on the remainder who had yet to vote. Another possible factor was whether or not one side(democrat) actually participates in the exit poll more than the other side(republican). In the end, the winner is the one who wins at least 270 electoral votes. If anyone remembers the 1992 election, Bill Clinton won with 43% of the popular vote to Bush's 37.4%, but carried almost twice as many states as Bush and more than doubled the electoral vote as Bush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithisco Posted May 30, 2008 #6 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Polls are polls, they been wrong the last 2 Presidential election. Yes.... but if the polls were in favour of your candidate McCain you would be starting a dozen threads saying it was all over for Barack!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AROCES Posted May 30, 2008 #7 Share Posted May 30, 2008 Yes.... but if the polls were in favour of your candidate McCain you would be starting a dozen threads saying it was all over for Barack!!!!! Nope, like I said Polls are Polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zitro1987 Posted May 30, 2008 #8 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I disagree with Aroces 99% of the time, but he's right. These polls are pointless and make hurricane forecasting look flawless in comparison. Despite the huge margin of error (high variance), you just gotta also think about bias: people who say they're voting Obama, but aren't ... because either they are racist, or they try to say they're not racist (and aren't) but just don't like Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bella-Angelique Posted May 30, 2008 #9 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I think we all know that the winner is going to be who can promise and show proof that they will get oil and energy prices down quickly during the debates, no matter what any polls now say, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AROCES Posted May 30, 2008 #10 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I disagree with Aroces 99% of the time, but he's right. These polls are pointless and make hurricane forecasting look flawless in comparison. Despite the huge margin of error (high variance), you just gotta also think about bias: people who say they're voting Obama, but aren't ... because either they are racist, or they try to say they're not racist (and aren't) but just don't like Obama. 99% of the time??? If numerous polls a month away from Election gives any candidate a 10 point lead then I would say that is a good indicator of who the winner will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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