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Outbreak in Mexico...


Plainbob13

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What do you mean by "systemic"?

It appears that most of the deaths in Mexico that are suspected to be caused by the swine flu are from people aged between 20 and 40 years old (at least that's what the media is reporting, however I can't find any clear cut figures anywhere), not the usual age groups. The explanation that I keep coming across for that is the 'cytokine storm' associated with the influenza virus, are there any other obvious reasons you can think of?

While it may mean nothing more than a few days of mild symptoms for us, we've already seen a number of deaths in Mexico; god help those living in third world countries if the flu makes an appearance.

By systemic I mean how the virus reproduces. Flu viruses replicate and bud via the apical surface of the respiratory cells. In the case of the 1918 flu, and very virulent strains, they are able to bud from the basolateral surface of the cells thus infiltrating the systemic circulatory system. Where as the flu normally only inhabits that of the pulmonary system.

This strain of the flu doesn't possess the necessary antigens to bud from the basolateral surface and the virulence doesn't seem any more potent than the regular sweeps of seasonal flu, which kills around 40,000 people a year in the US.

Cytokines and interferons are released by our own immune system and are responsible for something like 90% of symptoms you associate with being sick. Headache? Nausea, fever, chills, fatigue, dizzy, sore muscles, sore joints? You can thank your own immune system.

A cytokine storm is just an over response from your body to a potential or real pathogen. Most pathogenic viruses (especially those of the Orthomyxoviridae) and bacteria are capable of provoking such a response under the right conditions. However, this response is rare in most people infected with the flu and even this swine flu (hence of the hundreds of thousands of people exposed, the mortality rate remains low).

However, a cytokine storm from a systemic response is dangerous, very dangerous and what lead to the multiple organ failures and extreme mortality of the 1918 flu.

In mexico, every death was between 20 and 40. From what I read anyway. I agree though, this is no time to panic. In a week or so we will know alot more.

You'll have to forgive me for not trusting the word of the Mexican News agencies or health department. None of the deaths are confirmed nor age groups given any kind of statistical context. Are these people sick already? Immunocompromised? What conditions do they live under? Etc.

Which all need answered to accurately assess the virulence of this strain.

When I see people up here in the states, aged 18-25 and healthy start dropping over dead, then I'll panic. Until then, I am not loosing sleep. The one death thus far in the states is little consolation to the 40 or 50,000 people (in the US) that died of flu strains last year, but which got little media attention-- Not to sound callous or anything.

We already know the virus, it has been sequenced already, we have antigenic maps of it and we know which antivirals (drugs) it is and isn't resistant too-- Which is no more or no less than your run of the mill flu strain.

Edited by Copasetic
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ah great, there's a case near me, south london...

boo boo :td:

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The thing that makes me wonder is the rate at which it is spreading. Only 1000 sick in a city of what--20 million? And yet it's gone all across the globe already. Does anyone know if this is the usual pattern? I'm afraid I can't recall the last time this happened with very much clarity.

1,000 sick is misleading. The virus has invariably attacked hundreds of thousands of people in Mexico. However, being only the flu-- You'd be surprised to know that many people simply don't get sick or are asymptomatic for the duration of the infection or have it so mild they assume it a common cold.

Flu pandemics, sweep and sweep quickly because they are very contagious and very persistent in the environment. Which is what allows them (that and our technological ability to travel) quickly around the globe.

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http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci...0,4696825.story

By Thomas H. Maugh II

2:18 PM PDT, April 29, 2009

As the swine flu outbreak continued to spread to countries around the world, the World Health Organization today took the unprecedented step of raising the infectious disease alert level to phase 5, setting the stage for increased efforts to combat the infection.

The virus "must be taken seriously because of its ability to spread to every country in the world," WHO director-general Dr. Margaret Chan said at a news conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

The raised level means that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans, and remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks, she said.

Phase 5 is considered a situation in which the likelihood of a pandemic "is very high or inevitable," add Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general.

****************

Phase 5: The federal government will create a list and strategy to vaccinate persons

Phase 6: Forced inoculations.

Edited by acidhead
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http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci...0,4696825.story

Phase 5: The federal government will create a list and strategy to vaccinate persons

Phase 6: Forced inoculations.

I'll ask again...how do you think they could pull that off? In the US anyway...

Edited by Michelle
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I'll ask again...how do you think they could pull that off? In the US anyway...

There are many ways the public could be FIRST tricked into taking the shot.

One way would be to announce first that there is a limited supply of the vaccines.... that would create a panic for sure and would send many running for it.

Two: inoculate the police and anybody employed by the federal and state governments... failure to comply would mean termination of employment.

Three: use the MSM to create an environmental scare into people who have taken the shot to avoid people who have not.

The ideas can be endless.......

... after exhausting MSM and governmental pressures to take the shot...only then... could the military be brought in with less resistance from persons who already have taken it.

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There are many ways the public could be FIRST tricked into taking the shot.

One way would be to announce first that there is a limited supply of the vaccines.... that would create a panic for sure and would send many running for it.

Two: inoculate the police and anybody employed by the federal and state governments... failure to comply would mean termination of employment.

Three: use the MSM to create an environmental scare into people who have taken the shot to avoid people who have not.

The ideas can be endless.......

... after exhausting MSM and governmental pressures to take the shot...only then... could the military be brought in with less resistance from persons who already have taken it.

A limited supply would draw quite a few people in, but then again there probably really would be a limited supply. So that covers a lot of the rest right there.

Firing the police for failure to comply, IF there were to be a panic, wouldn't make much sense would it?

Do you realise how many people don't even know what MSM is?

The military is stretched so thin now, how do you think they are going to take over every city in mass or even one at a time....not to mention the huge rural areas we have? Especially in the south... :P

Sorry, I'm not buying it.

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The following is from the WHO(World Health Organization) website:

The current WHO phase of pandemic alert is 5.

linked-image

In nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

Consequences of an influenza pandemic

In the past, influenza pandemics have resulted in increased morbidity and mortality and great social disruption. In the 20th century, the most severe influenza pandemic occurred in 1918 -1919 and caused an estimated 40–50 million deaths world wide. Current epidemiological models project that a pandemic could result in 2 to 7.4 million deaths globally.

If an influenza pandemic were to occur today, we could expect:

*the pandemic virus to spread rapidly due to the high level of global traffic;

*vaccines, antiviral agents and antibiotics to treat secondary infections to be in short supply, with a period of several months before any vaccine becomes available;

*medical facilities to be overwhelmed with demands to care for both influenza and non-influenza patients;

*widespread illness to result in sudden and potentially significant shortages of personnel to provide essential community services.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/p...c/en/index.html

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Hmm...reading what each phase means suggests that Phase 5 is nothing overly special. Just means there are two different countries where people have the same virus. Heck using that outline ever single flu and cold can be declared Phase 5.

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I don't want to get it.

Please I just hope it won't spread all over North America or the world and infect many killing them, but I really hope it would spread all the way to where I live. Which is Canada. This is very scary to hear.

I just hope it won't spread to Canada, because I'm really worried. :(

woops too late :| ITS HERE! 16 cases already

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I'll ask again...how do you think they could pull that off? In the US anyway...

Not everyone needs vaccinated to establish herd immunity. You only need to create spatial barriers for a virus to burn itself out, ergo first responders and people mostly likely at risk for severe forms of the infection (ie; the old and young).

First responders include police, EMS and firefighters, health care workers and many university personnel who work with the virus and/or hospitals, as well as national guard and other government personal.

I only know this because I am unlucky (or lucky) enough to be classed as a 'first responder' and get poked with needles all the time :(

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H1N1 flu was extinct but resurrected to see how it affects other animals. Some umbrella corporation is experimenting in the real world.

http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/978/mys...nish-flu-solved resurrection.

http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/694/dea...-virus-unmasked tested on pigs.

resident evil resurrected.

No worries, mate! Scientists like that must be imunized from all diseases possible, so they won't live for long with their asses all in needle-holes. Besides, their finance is just about to dry out! Another two-three flu types, and we can sleep well.

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The NHS has put me on a monitor status and will be keeping check on me to make sure I don't get any worse because they are worried about the symptoms I am having. :hmm:

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The NHS has put me on a monitor status and will be keeping check on me to make sure I don't get any worse because they are worried about the symptoms I am having. :hmm:

Wishing you well Chaos, hope it turns out to be nothing serious. :tu:

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Wishing you well Chaos, hope it turns out to be nothing serious. :tu:

Cheers mate, I don't think it is anything serious myself, I have had worse lol. :tu:

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The NHS has put me on a monitor status and will be keeping check on me to make sure I don't get any worse because they are worried about the symptoms I am having.
OMG! You'll be in my thoughts and prayers!

H1N1 flu was extinct but resurrected to see how it affects other animals. Some umbrella corporation is experimenting in the real world.
Isn't "Umbrella Corp" the name of the company in Resident Evil movies and games that is responcible for the virus that turns everyone in to zombies? What was that virus called anyway?
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Cheers mate, I don't think it is anything serious myself, I have had worse lol. :tu:

Hope you are feeling better soon...

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They thing has moved into my state! I heard it earlier while I was sleeping. >> *Kicks the people*

Ugh.

I'm not going outside at all.

Edited by MoonPrincess
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H1N1 flu was extinct but resurrected to see how it affects other animals. Some umbrella corporation is experimenting in the real world.

resident evil resurrected.

Given 3rd rock's analysis maybe we should ditch the name H1N1 and simply call it the "Apocalypse Virus". That would propagate the level of panic that seems to be the media's goal.

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They thing has moved into my state! I heard it earlier while I was sleeping. >> *Kicks the people*

Ugh.

I'm not going outside at all.

Yeah, it's in Severna Park and Baltimore. This was inevitable, unfortunately. They should really erase the current state boundaries and create a long thin state called I-95 (I-95 is the highway that connects the big east coast US cities). In terms of lifestyle, contagion routes, etc. this would be much more accurate than lumping New York, Philadelphia, Baltimre, etc. with various plots of farmland. Once New York got it we had it too.

Chaos, I'm sorry you're feeling ill. Best wishes for a quick recovery. I'd be interested to know the process through which you came to be "monitored".

Edited by Siara
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Yeah, it's in Severna Park and Baltimore. This was inevitable, unfortunately. They should really erase the current state boundaries and create a long thin state called I-95 (I-95 is the highway that connects the big east coast US cities). In terms of lifestyle, contagion routes, etc. this would be much more accurate than lumping New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc. with various plots of farmland. Once New York got it we had it too.

Chaos, I'm sorry you're feeling ill. Best wishes for a quick recovery. I'd be interested to know the process through which you came to be "monitored".

*Hisses* I was hope (just hoping) It wouldn't appear here. That I would feel safe. ><

*Sighs* I'll have to call Dad and tell him. Because he said when it gets closer. We have to stockpile to ineract with people less.

*Screams into a pillow*

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Not everyone needs vaccinated to establish herd immunity. You only need to create spatial barriers for a virus to burn itself out, ergo first responders and people mostly likely at risk for severe forms of the infection (ie; the old and young).

First responders include police, EMS and firefighters, health care workers and many university personnel who work with the virus and/or hospitals, as well as national guard and other government personal.

I only know this because I am unlucky (or lucky) enough to be classed as a 'first responder' and get poked with needles all the time :(

I'm aware first responders get jabbed first, but I don't think I've ever heard of one getting fired for not getting a vaccine.

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A small rant.

Ft. Worth TX Schools Close

The Fort Worth school district, one of the largest in the state, announced Wednesday that it is closing all schools to prevent a possible spread of the swine flu.

A 12-year-old student in the district has tested positive for having the virus, according to district officials. Three other students are listed as "probable" for having it.

Nearly 80,000 students will be out of school through at least May 8, Fort Worth ISD spokesman Clint Bond said. The closures came at the recommendation of the Tarrant County Health Department, he said.

---------------------------------------------------------

So, 1 confirmed and 3 probable cases...and 80,000 children miss school? Not only does this effect the children, but also the parents who now have no place for their young children to be taken care of while they work. I also know for a fact at least 2,000 of those children depend on the school system for their daily food -- there are many very low income families that will have issues from this decision. Reacting is one thing. Overreacting quite another.

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*Hisses* I was hope (just hoping) It wouldn't appear here. That I would feel safe. ><

*Sighs* I'll have to call Dad and tell him. Because he said when it gets closer. We have to stockpile to ineract with people less.

*Screams into a pillow*

Dont worry just get yourself some aerosol cans, a lighter and a mask, and when you are out and about and some person coughs or sneezes near you quickly torch them.

Hope you are feeling better soon...

OMG! You'll be in my thoughts and prayers!

Thank you both, I am not worried, I think it is just something else.

Edited by chaoszerg
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