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__Kratos__

North Korea conducts nuclear test

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AROCES

Seems like the new tone of Washington is working alright. The world loves us now.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124277648950937029.html

Former Special Envoy of the Clinton Administration who is back after being TRICKED by Kim just last week stated that the Obama administration is relaxed and Pyongyang is certainly smiling.

Now we know why.

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Lord Umbarger
This thread has a lot of speculation about warmongering in a situation where it's clear that NK wants only to bring more aid and attention to the table.
Extortion? But, Clinton said that if we gave them what they wanted last time they'd be quiet from then on! LOL! It's a failed country with a failed regime and the more we coddle them, the longer the people will suffer.

The thought of this causing world war III or some crazy scenario is just a war-porn fantasy.
I honestly hope that you are correct in that assumption. It's one of those powder keg kind of things that could go really bad really fast. China may decide to stay out of it or they might decide that they can't allow a fellow Socialist government to fail.

There was a whole series of rather well done books back in the late 80's early 90's called World War III that was pretty entertaining. I read a few of them.

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ExpandMyMind
Seems like the new tone of Washington is working alright. The world loves us now.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124277648950937029.html

Former Special Envoy of the Clinton Administration who is back after being TRICKED by Kim just last week stated that the Obama administration is relaxed and Pyongyang is certainly smiling.

Now we know why.

OK what would you have had obama do about the NK situation.

bearing in mind this is a country that is estimated to have around 9 nukes (or at least the materials) left over from 2006.

everybody always sings about how weak obama is on NK... explain for me 'cause i must be missing something.

marabod has pointed out very well the complexities of the situation but if you reckon, aroces, that you have the answer then please let me know what it is... how should he have dealt with the NKs. you seem to forget they also tested a nuke when bush was at the helm...

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The thought of this causing world war III or some crazy scenario is just a war-porn fantasy.

i disagree. the NK situation could, easily, turn into a full scale war. there would be no way that either russia or especially china could afford to allow NK to become part of america's empire (over 800 bases in over 100 countries). if you look at a map, iran and NK are almost the only 2 countries surrounding china and russia that don't have american bases on them. NK is extremely important, tactically. as is iran.

to say it is a fantasy is going a bit too far as the threat of a global conflict is very real.

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Lord Umbarger
OK what would you have had obama do about the NK situation.
Well, we found out that kowtowing to them didn't work out so well under the Clinton years. As you pointed out, his plan failed and they claimed to have developed a nuke under the Bush administration. Hence, that doesn't work. It actually may have in spired them to become a bigger threat so that they could make bigger demands. Must like a junior street thug may start out fobbing with a knife and graduate to a pistol at some point

marabod has pointed out very well the complexities of the situation but if you reckon, aroces, that you have the answer then please let me know what it is... how should he have dealt with the NKs. you seem to forget they also tested a nuke when bush was at the helm...
I think that it might be more useful to ignore their demands and instead continute development on anti-missile systems like the ones that the left shot down a few years ago. Sure, they are useless now but, once teh rockets launch, it's too late to do the fifteen years of R & D.

Something sort of like the Patriot Missile system with a little in the way of majo upgrades. Put them all around NK in Japan and South Korea. Quietly inform them that any launches willimmediately percipitate a war and then let them make the next move. It Kim knows that he will follow Saddam to the grave in short order, he might shut up. Might not. Either way, it's better than having the far East at his beck and call to extort new goodies whenever he wants to change the deal. To do so would be no better than to openly and out right support his regime and we aren't supposed to like it when the US supports an oppressive regime, are we?

It might not be the be all end all solution to the problem but, what we've been doing obviously isn't working. If we want a different outcome, we have to use different tactics. No matter how you cut it in the end, if you keep putting in the same ingredients, you're going to have the same kind of cake.

Edited by Lord Umbarger

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so you would do nothing then umbrager? i mean that's pretty much what you're saying - there's nothing you could do.

your answer offered nothing at all that would be any different from what anyone who was president could do.

like marabod said, they're untouchable.

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MARAB0D
Well, we found out that kowtowing to them didn't work out so well under the Clinton years. As you pointed out, his plan failed and they claimed to have developed a nuke under the Bush administration. Hence, that doesn't work. It actually may have in spired them to become a bigger threat so that they could make bigger demands. Must like a junior street thug may start out fobbing with a knife and graduate to a pistol at some point

I think that it might be more useful to ignore their demands and instead continute development on anti-missile systems like the ones that the left shot down a few years ago. Sure, they are useless now but, once teh rockets launch, it's too late to do the fifteen years of R & D.

Something sort of like the Patriot Missile system with a little in the way of majo upgrades. Put them all around NK in Japan and South Korea. Quietly inform them that any launches willimmediately percipitate a war and then let them make the next move. It Kim knows that he will follow Saddam to the grave in short order, he might shut up. Might not. Either way, it's better than having the far East at his beck and call to extort new goodies whenever he wants to change the deal. To do so would be no better than to openly and out right support his regime and we aren't supposed to like it when the US supports an oppressive regime, are we?

It might not be the be all end all solution to the problem but, what we've been doing obviously isn't working. If we want a different outcome, we have to use different tactics. No matter how you cut it in the end, if you keep putting in the same ingredients, you're going to have the same kind of cake.

There is a serious history lesson against such defensive measures as the Theatre Missile Defence. The first known "world" war happened 2500 years ago and is known as Peloponnesys War. The main adversaries were Athens and Sparta, but there was about 20 other states involved by necessity, as they had no other choice but to enter the war by a chain reaction mechanism.

We have a detailed study of that war, a fundamental work by a participant in it, Thucydides, who was the Athenian naval Archont, a Strateg, later accused in failing to help his citizens in despair and expelled from Athens.

This work remains valid as if it was written yesterday, as even WW1 and WW2 policies all fall into the laws, described in it. Any state, according to Thucydides, has only ONE major strategic concern - how to avoid the war on two or more fronts. All the military allies are chosen in order to match this main criterion, not any other. Any country wants the ally to be BEHIND their potential enemy. France and England hate each other historically, but when threatened by Germany, they selected USSR as an ally, which was the enemy to both of them, and a friend to Germany. Germany selected Japan as an ally, for it to threaten USSR from the back. USA also selected USSR, because it was at the back of Japan. etc etc.

At the current moment USA and Russia politically invest in India - because it is at the back of China. China politically invests in Pakistan, because it is at the back of India. USA invests in Pakistan, because it is in the back of Russia. Russia invests in Greece, because it is in the back of EU and in Germany because it is in the back of Poland. Russia invests in Iran because it is in the back of Turkey and in Turkey because it is also in the back of EU and Iran. EU invests in Georgia, because it is in the back of Russia. Russia invests in Venezuela because it is in the back of USA... There is no end of these confusing and visually illogical triplets, but the sense is they ALL do not trust each other and are trying to calculate future possible risks and counter them.

Now... That mentioned Peloponnesys war started BECAUSE Athens had their main power their Navy, while Sparta had their main power their infantry. For few decades both had some sort of equilibrium, as the Spartans had the same chance to attack Athens suddenly and isolate their Navy from the city (the port Pyraeus was few miles away from Athens) as Athenians to block Spartan ports with their ships. But suddenly, Athenias decided to build Long Walls, connecting the City to Pyraeus, so they to be able to load the ships even if the city is under siege... Diplomacy took 3-4 years, the Spartans were trying to persuade the Athenians not to do this, as it was breaking the balance of power in Greece. Athenians were negotiating, but the same time stocking up building materials and weapons, and then rapidly erected the walls - and this forced the Spartans to attack them.

These Long Walls are absolutely the same as ABM system - if it is about to be completed, Russia would be FORCED to attack USA, and China possibly too; unless of course China prefers the role of an arbiter, waiting who wins... Then either USA or Russia would have to attack China too, as leaving it in full strength while demolishing each other is impossible, this is the same as to conquer the world and then to present it to someone else. Such considerations make the war start inevitable should any equilibrium is destroyed. North Korea is also a factor, which can destroy this existing equilibrium of forces. California houses 30 million people - if NK attacks it, USA would become 10% smaller, and USA cannot afford this, specially knowing that China and Russia would be clapping the hands. Means, USA cannot allow NK to become nuclear - but this CANNOT be contained with the help of ABM, as ABM would cause even more serious attack! Also, USA cannot destroy NK with missiles - as this may (90%) cause a Chinese and Russian retaliatory strike - so the option remaining is to destroy it with a simple airstrike. However, immediately after nuclear test, NK tested short range surface-to-air missiles, actually shot at American spy planes, researching the test site... Means NK is READY for such air-strike!

The above presents a stall-mate, which is the worst possible political situation. At the moment no one cares about some starving Koreans, everyone thinks of their own well-being only. Therefore, I would not be too light-hearted when looking at this at all. This is a very serious crisis, worse than the Caribbean Crisis - because the negotiations hardly can resolve it. NK is in full position to blackmail all 3 - China, Russia and US, as for Japan, they probably already do not consider it as an opponent at all. There is a beast on the loose!

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jesspy

Attack North Korea

Surely another war will pull us out of recession!!!!!!!!!!

North Korea fires two more short-range missiles in defiant act after nuclear test

North Korea fired more missiles into the Sea of Japan this afternoon in a further gesture of defiance a day after its underground nuclear test provoked outraged protests across the world.

South Korean media reported this afternoon that the North test launched two short range missiles, after firing three more yesterday. Unlike the long range rocket which was fired deep into the Pacific in early April, the testing of such smaller weapons does not violate international law or UN resolutions.

But in the circumstances, it represent s a further provocation to North Korea’s international critics – as well as a reminder of the country’s considerable conventional defensive capabilities for any government which might be contemplating a military solution to the North Korean nuclear problem.

link to article

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Corp

Well China has come out and publically condemned North Korea's actions and have told them to get back to the table aimed at getting rid of their nuclear program. Sounds like Kim's only ally is getting a bit tired of his actions.

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MARAB0D
Well China has come out and publically condemned North Korea's actions and have told them to get back to the table aimed at getting rid of their nuclear program. Sounds like Kim's only ally is getting a bit tired of his actions.

What did you expect - China coming out and saying "good job, comrade Kim!"? They sure said it to him, but in a more relaxing atmosphere than in Security Council. :)

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stevewinn

Let South Korea, Japan, Russia and China deal with them.

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Corp
What did you expect - China coming out and saying "good job, comrade Kim!"? They sure said it to him, but in a more relaxing atmosphere than in Security Council. :)

Well if China really was secretly funding this program and pumping up North Korea I would have expected them to either say nothing at all or to come out about how North Korea has the right to defend themselves, how the West has failed in the talks, etc etc. Actually give them some support. Instead they've told Kim to sit down and shut up.

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President-Elect Acidhead

This thread has turned into a game of 'Risk'... :D

..just curious, what demands has North Korea used as leverage?

Some of the posts indicate that NK is using their nuclear weapons program to 'increase their demands'...

What exactly are the NK's demands?

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AROCES
OK what would you have had obama do about the NK situation.

bearing in mind this is a country that is estimated to have around 9 nukes (or at least the materials) left over from 2006.

everybody always sings about how weak obama is on NK... explain for me 'cause i must be missing something.

marabod has pointed out very well the complexities of the situation but if you reckon, aroces, that you have the answer then please let me know what it is... how should he have dealt with the NKs. you seem to forget they also tested a nuke when bush was at the helm...

I say the Bush approach of tough negotiation and no talk until there is something to talk about.

As you can see the reach out approach and pretending we are all smiling blew on Obama's face right away, only made Kim think now he got the upper hand.

Edited by AROCES

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ExpandMyMind
I say the Bush approach of tough negotiation and no talk until there is something to talk about.

As you can see the reach out approach and pretending we are all smiling blew on Obama's face right away, only made Kim think now he got the upper hand.

how would that change the situation in any way? how would it change the way events have unfolded? i'm willing to bet that even with tougher negotiations this would have happened. probably would have happened sooner...

why bashing obama for something he has no control over? - just to use it as another chance to say how soft the 'lefties' are.

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Corp
This thread has turned into a game of 'Risk'... :D

..just curious, what demands has North Korea used as leverage?

Some of the posts indicate that NK is using their nuclear weapons program to 'increase their demands'...

What exactly are the NK's demands?

Pie?

No seriously I think they want increased aid, access to resources, and to be taken off American's evil list. And pie.

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stevewinn
This thread has turned into a game of 'Risk'... :D

..just curious, what demands has North Korea used as leverage?

Some of the posts indicate that NK is using their nuclear weapons program to 'increase their demands'...

What exactly are the NK's demands?

Am not sure North Korea demands, more like expects, everytime North Korea wants something such has sanctions lifting or economic/energy aid they fire off missiles/rockets or underground nuclear explosions. so they then gain a position in which they can bargain with the international community. just look at all the breaks they got for agreeing to dismantle their nuclear program last time. when that gravy train come to a end they decided to fire off a missile/satellite and so the cycle continues.

China is the player here. they hold the leash and can rein in Nr Korea before they overstep the mark. let Russia and China sort it out.

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Am not sure North Korea demands, more like expects, everytime North Korea wants something such has sanctions lifting or economic/energy aid they fire off missiles/rockets or underground nuclear explosions. so they then gain a position in which they can bargain with the international community. just look at all the breaks they got for agreeing to dismantle their nuclear program last time. when that gravy train come to a end they decided to fire off a missile/satellite and so the cycle continues.

i have to say. after 50 years of sanctions i can't really blame them for milking this.

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MARAB0D
Well if China really was secretly funding this program and pumping up North Korea I would have expected them to either say nothing at all or to come out about how North Korea has the right to defend themselves, how the West has failed in the talks, etc etc. Actually give them some support. Instead they've told Kim to sit down and shut up.

China cannot afford to spoil relationships with USA, at least at the current moment, because USA owes it $2 trillion, and refusal to return on the grounds of its openly hostile behaviour would cause China to collapse, economically and politically. So, openly they smile, and semi-openly they assist to NK. The value of NK is certainly extremely low for anyone, but it is still a pawn on the board, and potentially can make a checkmate. Diplomacy always suggests saying one thing, doing another and thinking something third - at least this is how Prince de Talleyrand determined it.

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AROCES
how would that change the situation in any way? how would it change the way events have unfolded? i'm willing to bet that even with tougher negotiations this would have happened. probably would have happened sooner...

why bashing obama for something he has no control over? - just to use it as another chance to say how soft the 'lefties' are.

You dont get it do you? When Bush was not talking to Kim, it has nothing to do with being warmonger or pride. It's part of dealing with state such as N Korea, the purpose of not talking is to first have something on the table or pre agreement prior to the official negotiation. I'm sure there are talks behind the scene even thought there is no official dialogue. Look at Khadafi, no one knew there were negotiations going on until the formality.

Obama wants a dialogue with Kim with nothing really to discuss or negotiate on the table or some kind of pre agreement. With the illusion that such character as Kim can be soften with wine and dine.

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You dont get it do you? When Bush was not talking to Kim, it has nothing to do with being warmonger or pride. It's part of dealing with state such as N Korea, the purpose of not talking is to first have something on the table or pre agreement prior to the official negotiation. I'm sure there are talks behind the scene even thought there is no official dialogue. Look at Khadafi, no one knew there were negotiations going on until the formality.

Obama wants a dialogue with Kim with nothing really to discuss or negotiate on the table or some kind of pre agreement. With the illusion that such character as Kim can be soften with wine and dine.

obama didn't really have the chance to 'not talk' to kim though did he?

NK were always going to do what they have done this year... no matter who's talking or not talking. and that's my point. there's nothing obama could have done.

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AROCES
obama didn't really have the chance to 'not talk' to kim though did he?

NK were always going to do what they have done this year... no matter who's talking or not talking. and that's my point. there's nothing obama could have done.

And what will he do now? continue on with his approach of talking to Kim now as in embrace the enemy??

Do you have a clue what that will do?

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And what will he do now? continue on with his approach of talking to Kim now as in embrace the enemy??

Do you have a clue what that will do?

i asked you what you would do in his situation.

so i'll ask again.... what would you do?.... talking is out of the question so what would be the solution?

personally i don't think there is anything anyone could do but that's just my opinion.

you obviously feel obama could do something... what exactly?

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N Korea threatens military action

North Korea says it has abandoned the truce that ended the Korean war, amid rising tension in the region.

It blamed its decision on South Korea joining a US-led initiative to search ships for nuclear weapons.

It said the South's actions were a "declaration of war", and pledged to attack if its ships were stopped.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8069457.stm

well the north are doing what they said they would do if the south took part in this program...

this my friends is a prelude to war.

i just hope it doesn't start before i go down under next month....

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Corp

Well to be fair NK has been throwing around the 'act of war' play for years. I would hope that China would step in before Kim did anything stupid.

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