Scientists: MAJOR solar storms for 2012

[Alienated Being]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27ji-NL2Pb4

I have heard some of his other theories, and I think this guy is a bit of a nutcase, but it is still very interesting nonetheless.

[xYlvax]

That's what my dad thinks will happen. But i told him nawwww

I doubt anything will happen but we'll see

[Cynical Sounds]

wait that doesn't make sense

right the 11 year cycle is really the 22 year cycle (altho it doesn't really last exactly 11 or 22 years) and it breaks down like this

odd numbers are more intense than even numbers. NASA currently put cycle 24 peaking around 2013. so its even so its should be less intense. I'm still looking into what this guy claims (altho alot of what he explains seems to be a collection of stupidly simplified or pretty bad metaphors)but I'll get back to you. I'm willing to admit I maybe incorrect and this maybe worse than first predicted but 2000-2001 when the last peak was we still had quite a few satellite up there and it was a fairly bad one and nothing was knocked out.

anyone know the date this footage is from is it the 18-12-2008 because here's NASA's predictions from earlier this year http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm looks like there is the possibility of strong solar storms even tho there is low sunspot activity predicted

well I guess i'll have to eat my words

Edited October 5, 2009 by Spend

[Torgo]

The solar cycle will peak in 2013, though it will be near its peak in 2012. However, it has peaked every 11 years since the maunder minimum hundreds of years ago. There is no reason to be concerned.

Solar flares can and have caused disruptions during these events, but again, they have happened before. They are singular events that are over quickly, and while they can disrupt power grids and radio communication that is all they do.

I would not put too much stake in any predictions of the solar cycle, other than its period - the weird near lack of sunspots for the last year or two was completely unexpected, and we really don't rigorously understand the solar magnetosphere.

[Universal Sight]

Could it be that the peak may happen near the end of 2012 as the sun is in the plane of the milky way? Maybe the concern could be that when it goes through the plane maybe there is a chance the the resulting effect possibly because of the predicted "alignments" that the solar winds may increase in either quantity or strength.

If so, this could effect our satellites and possibly some other critical electrical systems which may cause mayhem.

[Agent. Mulder]

yeah ive heard michio kaku talk about that before. we'll find out if it is strong enough to even effect us.

apparently they were off when they said it was supposed to be in 2000 i think.

[Universal Sight]

apparently they were off when they said it was supposed to be in 2000 i think.

Glad you made that statement because thats why i put my post there.

I was just thinking that if the flares were to be more frequent or intense.... this could possibly in effect cause all the mayhem that was supposed to happen in 2000.

Would this effect all the nuclear bombs? Could they possibly fire on their own?

IF the flares were strong enough, it is possible that the magnetic field of Earth could be distorted.

IF so, could this possibly offset the orbit of our moon? Whereby the stablizing gravity relation of the moon to Earth could cause some of these "prophetic" floodings?

[Torgo]

Glad you made that statement because thats why i put my post there.

I was just thinking that if the flares were to be more frequent or intense.... this could possibly in effect cause all the mayhem that was supposed to happen in 2000.

Would this effect all the nuclear bombs? Could they possibly fire on their own?

IF the flares were strong enough, it is possible that the magnetic field of Earth could be distorted.

IF so, could this possibly offset the orbit of our moon? Whereby the stablizing gravity relation of the moon to Earth could cause some of these "prophetic" floodings?

A distortion of the Earth's magnetic field is a temporary event - as the cloud of magnetically coupled plasma passes us, our magnetosphere resumes its original shape.

The orbit of the moon has quite literally NOTHING to do with the Earth's magnetic field - not only does it orbit entirely outside our magnetosphere, but it does not exert any net force on it at all even were it in the field.

Nukes cannot go off from a solar storm. A solar storm would induce currents in long conductors, like power lines. This would cause power surges and the like, and the power line circuit breakers would trip and cut off power. Nukes have innumerable steps that must be undergone for them to detonate, and basically cannot go off accidentally. Even were just one of the explosive charges in the core of a nuclear device to go off, without perfect timing of all the pieces and perfect working of all the components, you would get a fizzle that just acts as the nuke breaching its shell and spewing uranium around - and even that would not happen, the conductors are far too short to be damaged by even the most intense geomagnetic storm.

Could it be that the peak may happen near the end of 2012 as the sun is in the plane of the milky way? Maybe the concern could be that when it goes through the plane maybe there is a chance the the resulting effect possibly because of the predicted "alignments" that the solar winds may increase in either quantity or strength.

The sun being in the plane of the milky way as seen from earth is meaningless. The galactic tide on something as small as the inner solar system is basically nonexistant, and these so-called "alignments" are hokum. They happen, they just have no physical effects. It is worth noting that the sun passes through the plane of the galaxy as seen from Earth twice EVERY SINGLE year, and its closest alignment to the galactic center was actually several years ago. There is nothing unique about the 2012 date. It is also worth noting that the sun "passing through the plane of the galaxy" is an illusion in any rate - our whole solar system is displaced from the exact plane of the galaxy by 200 lightyears (at least that is the figure I remember) and we just define the "plane of the galaxy" astronomically as the line with half the stars on one side and half the stars on the other - it is physically meaningless and does not correspond to anything real.

[Universal Sight]

A distortion of the Earth's magnetic field is a temporary event - as the cloud of magnetically coupled plasma passes us, our magnetosphere resumes its original shape.

The orbit of the moon has quite literally NOTHING to do with the Earth's magnetic field - not only does it orbit entirely outside our magnetosphere, but it does not exert any net force on it at all even were it in the field.

Nukes cannot go off from a solar storm. A solar storm would induce currents in long conductors, like power lines. This would cause power surges and the like, and the power line circuit breakers would trip and cut off power. Nukes have innumerable steps that must be undergone for them to detonate, and basically cannot go off accidentally. Even were just one of the explosive charges in the core of a nuclear device to go off, without perfect timing of all the pieces and perfect working of all the components, you would get a fizzle that just acts as the nuke breaching its shell and spewing uranium around - and even that would not happen, the conductors are far too short to be damaged by even the most intense geomagnetic storm.

The sun being in the plane of the milky way as seen from earth is meaningless. The galactic tide on something as small as the inner solar system is basically nonexistant, and these so-called "alignments" are hokum. They happen, they just have no physical effects. It is worth noting that the sun passes through the plane of the galaxy as seen from Earth twice EVERY SINGLE year, and its closest alignment to the galactic center was actually several years ago. There is nothing unique about the 2012 date. It is also worth noting that the sun "passing through the plane of the galaxy" is an illusion in any rate - our whole solar system is displaced from the exact plane of the galaxy by 200 lightyears (at least that is the figure I remember) and we just define the "plane of the galaxy" astronomically as the line with half the stars on one side and half the stars on the other - it is physically meaningless and does not correspond to anything real.

Great stuff right there....i dont care who you are......

It makes me wonder what will be the next great big scare tactic or timestamp will be.

Will they have to go back and re-read or re-study all those quatrains? calenders? to be able to say...ooops we misread it is really 2050!

Edited October 5, 2009 by Universal Sight

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

Could it be that the peak may happen near the end of 2012 as the sun is in the plane of the milky way? Maybe the concern could be that when it goes through the plane maybe there is a chance the the resulting effect possibly because of the predicted "alignments" that the solar winds may increase in either quantity or strength.

How does that work then?

[TheSearcher]

Great stuff right there....i dont care who you are......

It makes me wonder what will be the next great big scare tactic or timestamp will be.

Will they have to go back and re-read or re-study all those quatrains? calenders? to be able to say...ooops we misread it is really 2050!

That's very likely to happen. The "oops we misread" is the usual fringe excuse anyway.

[zach28]

Not more 2012 conspiracy theories. This reminds me how everybody thought that computers everywhere were going to crash back in 2000 for the turn of the millenium, Everybody said planes would collide into each other etc etc, Guess what.. nothing happened. Just like nothing is going to happen in 2012. But even after nothing happens then it wil be in 2020. Even if such an event were to happen we have very little control over it.

[Torgo]

Not more 2012 conspiracy theories. This reminds me how everybody thought that computers everywhere were going to crash back in 2000 for the turn of the millenium, Everybody said planes would collide into each other etc etc, Guess what.. nothing happened. Just like nothing is going to happen in 2012. But even after nothing happens then it wil be in 2020.

And I just can't wait until 2060 rolls around, and people start screaming that Newton said the world could end before that date... he was a brilliant man, but he went off the deep end in his later years.

[Agent. Mulder]

its nothing our earth cant stand though. we were hit by some big ones within the last 9 years, but ya didnt hear about them because not much happened. our ionosphere will protect us, or filter anything out.

[sickpuppy]

Torgo, just wondering..

A distortion of the Earth's magnetic field is a temporary event

how 'temporary'? 1000 years may be 'temporary' considering we're talking about the universe here..?

- as the cloud of magnetically coupled plasma passes us, our magnetosphere resumes its original shape.

how long does that take?

what happens during this time?

The orbit of the moon has quite literally NOTHING to do with the Earth's magnetic field - not only does it orbit entirely outside our magnetosphere, but it does not exert any net force on it at all even were it in the field.

/shrugs

Nukes cannot go off from a solar storm. A solar storm would induce currents in long conductors, like power lines. This would cause power surges and the like, and the power line circuit breakers would trip and cut off power.

what happens if there's no power for these circuit breakers?

we DID have a chernobyl event, right? 3 mile island? (and they were mere 'earthborne' drama's)

Nukes have innumerable steps that must be undergone for them to detonate, and basically cannot go off accidentally. Even were just one of the explosive charges in the core of a nuclear device to go off, without perfect timing of all the pieces and perfect working of all the components, you would get a fizzle that just acts as the nuke breaching its shell and spewing uranium around - and even that would not happen, the conductors are far too short to be damaged by even the most intense geomagnetic storm.

/shrugs

about the 'alignment' you say is meaningless, i'm told this is only an alignment as seen from our point of view (earth) but i'm wondering why it was even mentioned at all by a people who were said to possess no telescopes, no technology, etc etc

[Torgo]

how 'temporary'? 1000 years may be 'temporary' considering we're talking about the universe here..?

how long does that take?

what happens during this time?

Geomagnetic storms caused by solar events happen over a timescale of hours to days at most. A cloud of ionized, magnetized plasma comes towards us, envelops the earth, distorts the magnetic field, moves past us, and the field returns to its original shape. The effects of this are that while the magnetosphere is changing shape, either distorting or returning to norrmal, the changing magnetic field induces the aforementioned currents in long conductors. There is also a slight effect by which the upper upper atmosphere, over 100 km up, is heated ever so slightly by particles hitting it at the magnetic poles so it expands upwards and the drag experienced by satellites in low earth orbit increases by some fraction for a time (I think on the order of days to weeks).

what happens if there's no power for these circuit breakers?

we DID have a chernobyl event, right? 3 mile island? (and they were mere 'earthborne' drama's)

Circuit breakers in power distribution networks use the current passing through them to power themselves, or have batteries that are charged off the grid. If too much current passes through them the magnetic field produced by a coil pulls a switch open and forces something into the gap to break the circuit. Chernobyl and 3 mile island had nothing to do with power grids. 3 Mile Island was a combination of a faulty valve and an inadequately trained reactor staff, and Chernobyl was the result of a profoundly unsafe incompetent reactor design in which a power failure would lead to the failure of coolant pumps and a runaway steam explosion within the reactor vessels.

about the 'alignment' you say is meaningless, i'm told this is only an alignment as seen from our point of view (earth) but i'm wondering why it was even mentioned at all by a people who were said to possess no telescopes, no technology, etc etc

It would have been important to them because, as you said, its an alignment AS SEEN FROM EARTH. They had no other perspective, as we do now. They found the dark patches in the milky way, including one large dark one directly on the line towards the center of the galaxy and near where the sun crosses the plane of the galaxy as seen from here, important in their mythology. They may have set up their calendar to have the end of the 5000 year cycle coincide with the closest approach of the sun to the center of this dark cloud - and they got remarkably close, the closest approach of the sun to the center of that cloud (and to the center of the galaxy) as seen from Earth was in 1998.

[Universal Being]

its nothing our earth cant stand though. we were hit by some big ones within the last 9 years, but ya didnt hear about them because not much happened. our ionosphere will protect us, or filter anything out.

According to Geryl, there will be a be a masive solar ejection of trillions of particles that will reverse the polarity of the earth .Now, I am not advocating his theory here but, the other scientists who are predicting a solar event of some kind ,have me pondering over what Geryl has had to say

[tinieblas]

I think it will happen; events will kick off in 2012; peak around 2015 and be over by 2020....no big catastrophic extinction event of end of all human life type thing; rather a chain of significant and unexpected (therefore unprepared for) events which will change a significant number of things within our society and our everyday lives. It is, however, human to senstionalise and, especially in today's media-saturated world, to expect lots of big explosions and events cooler than any Hollywood special effect but that's not how it will be. The human race will survive, sorry about that. The world shan't end, whoops. Things will be quite different, yes they will.

Before you all flame me, I'm sorry but I have no evidence of this, it's just what I, shall we say, suspect. I cannot have evidence anyway because if events are unexpected, we can't by definitiion know what they're going to be...

However, solar activity is in the frame, i believe.

One small comment though, some of this stuff; large scale solar storm effects, magnetic field distortions and so forth ARE based on computer models and smaller scale tests, no? Have we ever seen, with our own eyes on our own planet, such an event take place or are we trusting theory over actual concrete fact here?

One thing which intrigues me more though, is HOW did the Aztecs and Mayans get it so close without the technology and tools we currently possess?

Edited October 23, 2009 by tinieblas

[Torgo]

The Myans would have been able to get the date at which the equinox falls closest to the sun crossing the plane of the galaxy as seen from earth easily enough - by looking at the positions of the stars during sunset at particular times of the year. Its the same way we do it, we just can do it precisely much easier than they can and make accurate predictions much easier. You can get down the rate of precession of the equinoxes by comparing measurements taken just a few decades apart, if you can measure a change in the positions of the stars by something like the size of the full moon in the sky. These people were intelligent, they just didn't know what what they were looking at meant at all - they had no framework within which to look other than the geocentric. And if they were indeed trying to set up their calendar so it cycled over at the sun's closest approach to the dark cloud by the center of the galaxy, they got it right to within 14 years out of something like 1000 - a 1% error. Not bad.

One small comment though, some of this stuff; large scale solar storm effects, magnetic field distortions and so forth ARE based on computer models and smaller scale tests, no? Have we ever seen, with our own eyes on our own planet, such an event take place or are we trusting theory over actual concrete fact here?

We see geomagnetic storms and increased solar activity ALL THE TIME. The sun's magnetic field changes in an 11 year cycle, and each maximum it throws off lots of flares. We haven't had a BIG storm since the 80s - that one knocked out power to parts of Canada for a few hours. In the 1800s, there was a huge solar storm intense enough that some telegraph systems were damaged and those that were not damaged had enough current moving through them (from the magnetic fields inducing currents) that they could be used to send messages without being attached to generators/power sources. These things happen all the time.

[gosgirl]

This reminds me how everybody thought that computers everywhere were going to crash back in 2000 for the turn of the millenium, Everybody said planes would collide into each other etc etc.

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