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Dark Winter Bioterrorism Exercise


DC09
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Bioterrorism Exercise

Andrews Air Force Base

June 22-23, 2001

INTRODUCTION TO EXERCISE

GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT BRIEFING

Randy Larsen, Deputy National Security Advisor

Taiwan-China Tensions

Angry rhetoric between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

has reached an all time high.

• One month ago, the PRC “tested” medium range missiles along a flight path

that passed through Taiwan’s airspace.

• An outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease in Taiwan began about three weeks

ago and is having a devastating impact on the local swine industry.

• Press reports have speculated that the current outbreak may have been

deliberately introduced by the Chinese. China has denied these rumors.

• Taiwanese officials have compared this outbreak to the 1997 FMD epidemic

that transformed Taiwan from an exporter to an importer of pork. As a result,

China was able to capture the Pacific Rim pork market.

Nuke/Bio Smuggling

• Last month Russian authorities, with support from the FBI, arrested Yusuuf

Abdul Aziiz, a known operative in Al-Qaida and a close personal friend and

suspected senior lieutenant of Usama bin Laden. Yusuuf was caught in a sting

operation that had been developing during the last year. He was attempting to

acquire 50 kilograms of plutonium and was also attempting to arrange the

purchase of several biological pathogens that had been weaponized by the

Soviet Union.

Suspected BW Production - Iraq

Six months ago, the US lifted sanctions against Iraq and ceased enforcement

of the“no-fly zones”.

• Saddam has since pursued an aggressive effort to upgrade military forces and

has imported equipment and materials that might be used to build chemical or

biological weapons.

• The Al Daura vaccine plant, near Baghdad, closed by UN inspectors after the

Gulf War, renewed full-scale production in 2001. The ostensible justification

for this was the preparation of vaccines against Foot & Mouth disease.

• There are also reports that several top of scientists from the former Soviet

bioweapons program began working in Iraq and Iran 1 yr ago.

Southwest Asia – 2 days ago

• 2 days ago, Iraqi forces in the South of Iraq moved into offensive positions

along the Kuwaiti border.

• The Iraqi government denies any hostile intent and maintains that these troop

movements are part of routine military exercises.

PROPERTY of Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International Studies, ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism

FINAL SCRIPT – DARK WINTER EXERCISE

Yesterday, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain requested

deployment of US, British and French forces to Southwest Asia, to guard

against possible attempts by Iraq to seize Kuwaiti oil fields.

• Russia and China oppose Allied deployment.

• The US has announced it is moving an aircraft carrier battle group to the Gulf.

US Domestic Conditions

• US Economy is in good shape

• Has been especially severe winter and heating oil prices, especially in the

Northeast are high.

• Polls show slim majority of Americans oppose a major deployment onf US

troops to the Persian Gulf

• Most Americans agree that Saddam’s Iraqi regime represents a real threat to

stability in the region and to American interests.

• Key information on US Oil Imports being distributed.

Dark Winter

And this was just a few months before 9/11...

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