‘Strike may halt Iran's nuke program’

[ninjadude]

I don't you know if you know this or not, but Israel's government has been changing every few years for quite a while now.

I don't know if you know this or not but the ideology of the Israeli government has not.

[Tiggs]

A SA general, who felt that SA should make or acquire nuclear weapons, was present at a SA-Israel meeting during which Botha asks for 'the right payload' and then through a chain of 2+2=5.

I'm sure you also think that the later Tritium for Yellowcake exchange between the two governments was also 2+2=5.

Mordechai Vanunu's testimony and photographs of Israel's nuclear weapon building capability - also 2+2=5.

The secretary of Defence, Robert Gates at his senate confirmation hearing "They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons - Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west and us in the Persian Gulf" - also 2+2=5.

Ex-President Carter's assertion that Israel has around 150 nuclear weapons, also 2+2=5.

Mohamed Elbaradei, Director General, International Atomic Energy Agency - "However, Israel is beginning to realize that its being the only nuclear State in the Middle East cannot be everlasting, especially in the light of the developments of the last two years with respect to the proliferation of nuclear technology as we have seen in Libya and Iran. In particular, there is very grave concern regarding the phenomenon of nuclear terrorism and the acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorist groups. They are giving the matter reconsideration. However, this does not mean that they are going to abandon the nuclear deterrent tomorrow." also 2+2=5.

The Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olomert's televised statement "Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly, threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel and Russia?" - obviously also 2+2=5.

Worst kept secret ever.

[ninjadude]

and there is no proof they do.

You're not serious.!!! LOL

[Moon Monkey]

I'm sure you also think that the later Tritium for Yellowcake exchange between the two governments was also 2+2=5.

Mordechai Vanunu's testimony and photographs of Israel's nuclear weapon building capability - also 2+2=5.

The secretary of Defence, Robert Gates at his senate confirmation hearing "They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons - Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west and us in the Persian Gulf" - also 2+2=5.

Ex-President Carter's assertion that Israel has around 150 nuclear weapons, also 2+2=5.

Mohamed Elbaradei, Director General, International Atomic Energy Agency - "However, Israel is beginning to realize that its being the only nuclear State in the Middle East cannot be everlasting, especially in the light of the developments of the last two years with respect to the proliferation of nuclear technology as we have seen in Libya and Iran. In particular, there is very grave concern regarding the phenomenon of nuclear terrorism and the acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorist groups. They are giving the matter reconsideration. However, this does not mean that they are going to abandon the nuclear deterrent tomorrow." also 2+2=5.

The Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olomert's televised statement "Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly, threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel and Russia?" - obviously also 2+2=5.

Worst kept secret ever.

50 years on and still no hard evidence. Best kept secret ever.

[ninjadude]

50 years on and still no hard evidence. Best kept secret ever.

Because they won't sign the inspection treaty. What hard evidence would you accept? WWIII?

[Q24]

50 years on and still no hard evidence. Best kept secret ever.

I have to go with Tiggs in the “worst kept secret” camp – everyone is aware of Israel’s nuclear arsenal.

I mean, if you wanted to claim that Israel did not have nuclear arms, you would also have to believe that the Mossad abducted and imprisoned Mordechai Vanunu for 18 years simply due to ‘slander’ or ‘spreading rumours’.

Either Israel has nuclear weapons or… it is the biggest bluff of all time.

Actually, the second part of that sentence has got me thinking – do Israel really have nuclear weapons?

“By way of deception, thou shalt do war”?

This is all beside the point - as ninjadude alluded to, Iran as signatories of the NPT are more transparent with their nuclear programme than Israel have ever been.

[Pseudo Intellectual]

I don't know if you know this or not but the ideology of the Israeli government has not.

Then why did you say "government" instead of "ideology"?

[Tiggs]

50 years on and still no hard evidence. Best kept secret ever.

Because pictures of the nuclear weapon cores don't count as hard evidence?

[FurthurBB]

I have to go with Tiggs in the “worst kept secret” camp – everyone is aware of Israel’s nuclear arsenal.

I mean, if you wanted to claim that Israel did not have nuclear arms, you would also have to believe that the Mossad abducted and imprisoned Mordechai Vanunu for 18 years simply due to ‘slander’ or ‘spreading rumours’.

Either Israel has nuclear weapons or… it is the biggest bluff of all time.

Actually, the second part of that sentence has got me thinking – do Israel really have nuclear weapons?

“By way of deception, thou shalt do war”?

This is all beside the point - as ninjadude alluded to, Iran as signatories of the NPT are more transparent with their nuclear programme than Israel have ever been.

Apparently they just said they were moving nuclear submarines off the coast of Iran. It seems the answer is yes they do.

[Moon Monkey]

Because pictures of the nuclear weapon cores don't count as hard evidence?

You conviniently left out the word 'models'. There is more tangible evidence of Bigfoot.

[Black Red Devil]

50 years on and still no hard evidence. Best kept secret ever.

So maybe its time the world finds out. Mr Etzioni seems to have a good plan.

[Tiggs]

You conviniently left out the word 'models'. There is more tangible evidence of Bigfoot.

Production model of a nuclear core ...is a nuclear core.

[Moon Monkey]

Production model of a nuclear core ...is a nuclear core.

It is a prototype, untried and untested....hence 'model'. The jump from production model to tried, tested and mounted is a good example of the 2+2=5 analysis we mentioned earlier.

That doesn't look very top secret..sat on a desk. Funny thing is it looks like it is simply an opened up version of the laboratory model core from the same series, even down to sitting on the same desk.

[ninjadude]

Maybe we can have a strike against Israels nuclear program since MM claims about the evidence.

[Tiggs]

It is a prototype, untried and untested....hence 'model'. The jump from production model to tried, tested and mounted is a good example of the 2+2=5 analysis we mentioned earlier.

That doesn't look very top secret..sat on a desk. Funny thing is it looks like it is simply an opened up version of the laboratory model core from the same series, even down to sitting on the same desk.

Regardless - Dr Theodore Taylor after seeing Vanunu's photo's and testimony stated "There should no longer be any doubt that Israel is, and for at least a decade has been, a fully-fledged nuclear weapons state. The Israeli nuclear weapons programme is considerably more advanced than indicated by any previous report or conjectures of which I am aware."

In short, unless you happen to also be an alumni of Robert Oppenheimer and head of the Pentagon's atomic weapons test programme, then Dr Theodore Taylor's opinion > your opinion.

[Moon Monkey]

Regardless - Dr Theodore Taylor after seeing Vanunu's photo's and testimony stated "There should no longer be any doubt that Israel is, and for at least a decade has been, a fully-fledged nuclear weapons state. The Israeli nuclear weapons programme is considerably more advanced than indicated by any previous report or conjectures of which I am aware."

In short, unless you happen to also be an alumni of Robert Oppenheimer and head of the Pentagon's atomic weapons test programme, then Dr Theodore Taylor's opinion > your opinion.

The good doctor only had Vanunus word that what he claimed was true. If what Vanunu said was true then it is a fair cop but has it been verified by any other source ? In 50 years. Then if it is just one blokes word, a bloke who seemed hell bent on annoying the jewish state (as with his conversion), a low level technicion whose major was in geography, who has also claimed that Israel killed JFK (among other things) then you know what they say about opinions.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Moon Monkey

[ninjadude]

MM, why are you hell bent on portraying Israel as an angelic state? When clearly they have proven otherwise? Are you one of the 20,000 that Israel hired out to make up excuses on the internet? link

[Moon Monkey]

MM, why are you hell bent on portraying Israel as an angelic state? When clearly they have proven otherwise? Are you one of the 20,000 that Israel hired out to make up excuses on the internet? link

I am under no illusions as to its angelic-ness (just as I am under no illusions as to its nuclear capability), I am simply supplying another side to the coin that you and your ilk continually toss.

If I am wrong about something just 'add reply'.

[Tiggs]

The good doctor only had Vanunus word that what he claimed was true. If what Vanunu said was true then it is a fair cop but has it been verified by any other source ? In 50 years. Then if it is just one blokes word, a bloke who seemed hell bent on annoying the jewish state (as with his conversion), a low level technicion whose major was in geography, who has also claimed that Israel killed JFK (among other things) then you know what they say about opinions.

Actually, the good Doctor had his testimony AND 60 or so pictures of the facility itself.

So - is his testimony accurate? Let's ask Dr Frank Barnaby, a British nuclear physicist from Aldermaston.

"As a nuclear physicist, it was clear to me that details he gave me were scientifically accurate and clearly showed that he had not only worked on these processes but knew the details of the techniques. Also the flow rates through the plant, which he quotes exactly confirm the quantities of plutonium that were being made."

I expect you'll find that the prospect of being lured, drugged and kidnapped by Mossad to be returned to Israel for a secret trial charged with treason and espionage is a sufficiently good enough reason why no deluge of pictures or testimony have publicly turned up from the Dimona facility.

However, there is the recent testimony of the ex-Israeli politician, Uzi Even.

From the recent BBC report:

Uzi Even worked at the Dimona nuclear facility back in the 1960s. He is now a professor of chemistry at Tel Aviv University.

Mr Even will not talk about what Israel's military nuclear capability might be, but defence analysts at the London-based Jane's Group assess that Israel has enough fissile material for between 100 and 300 warheads.

Mr Even argues, though, that Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity - essentially never confirming their existence, but allowing others to believe that Israel has nuclear weapons - has in the past proved very worthwhile.

Whatever pressure might be exerted at the NPT conference in New York, Mr Even says that talk of a nuclear-free Middle East is premature.

His view on Israel's need for nuclear weapons is common in Israel and goes some way to explaining Israeli attitudes on the issue: "There is no country in the world like Israel, which feels as threatened as Israel.

"And there is no country in the world which has any justification to keep nuclear weapons, except for Israel.

"It would be very foolish to ask us to disarm, because we won't. I am at the age where the Holocaust is very, very fresh in my memory."

My favourite Uzi Even quote referring to Dimona, however, comes from the BBC Documentary "Israel's Secret Weapon":

"We were a very small country, and we were surrounded by much much larger, more populous states on borders that are almost impossible to defend. The holocaust was very much in our memory at that time, and we all realised that we have to do something to prevent the same scenario from happening again.

So we were a young crew, most of us very young, very enthusiastic, working on something we believed is essential for our existence, like building the final insurance policy that we will not be attacked or terminated."

My point, I think you'll find.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Tiggs

[Moon Monkey]

This british physicist was going off the same pictures/testimony that the good doctor was. Vanunu could have been talked through the entire process by outside agents who knew he had turned against his country, had been sacked from Dimona and the pictures could have been taken anywhere. I still find his level of knowledge of the whole process a little startling for someone without a post high school education.

Uzi Even...what has he really said there ?...that they were working on something...did they finish it ? was it a research project for feasibility or were mountable weapons produced ? You don't know and neither do I.

As for nothing coming out of Dimona...I can attest for the security there. A friend of mine couldn't get a basic level pass to work there as sub-contractor because his mother was born in the UK, even though she moved to Israel as a kid. I am sure they are very, very careful.

To put this to bed, I am sure we agree in our strong suspicions however there is no hard evidence. At all.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Moon Monkey

[Tiggs]

This british physicist was going off the same pictures/testimony that the good doctor was. Vanunu could have been talked through the entire process by outside agents who knew he had turned against his country and the pictures could have been taken anywhere. I still find his level of knowledge of the whole process a little startling for someone without a post high school education.

Uzi Even...what has he really said there ?...that they were working on something...did they finish it ? was it a research project for feasibility or were mountable weapons produced ? You don't know and neither do I.

As for nothing coming out of Dimona...I can attest for the security there. A friend of mine couldn't get a basic level pass to work there as sub-contractor because his mother was born in the UK, even though she moved to Israel as a kid. I am sure they are very, very careful.

To put this to bed, I am sure we agree in our strong suspicions however there is no hard evidence. At all.

Oh, please. We went past the point of plausible deniability a couple of posts ago.

Maybe you'd like to walk me through how it's possible to be charged by the Israeli government for espionage if the pictures aren't from an Israeli facility?

Uzi Even clearly states that Israel has no intention to disarm. In order to disarm, one must be armed in the first place.

And armed Israel most certainly are. For example, America and Israeli officials have both confirmed that Israel has submarines armed with nuclear cruise missiles, which, not surprisingly, have been permanently deployed to the Iranian coastline as of yesterday.

[Moon Monkey]

Oh, please. We went past the point of plausible deniability a couple of posts ago.

Maybe you'd like to walk me through how it's possible to be charged by the Israeli government for espionage if the pictures aren't from an Israeli facility?

Uzi Even clearly states that Israel has no intention to disarm. In order to disarm, one must be armed in the first place.

And armed Israel most certainly are. For example, America and Israeli officials have both confirmed that Israel has submarines armed with nuclear cruise missiles, which, not surprisingly, have been permanently deployed to the Iranian coastline as of yesterday.

Maybe the israeli government of the time quite liked the idea that certain people would think that Israel had the bomb (there is a conspiracy theory that Vanunu was set up all along and that Shin Bet had tagged him in the late 70's as just the fall guy activist to use).

You can keep throwing 'unnamed officials' trying to put the willies up enemies in the region, 'subs that can carry cruise missiles that can carry nuclear warheads' and slips of the tongue by an old fella that worked on something 50 years ago forever.

[Black Red Devil]

Why is it our place to decide who has nuclear weapons? In my mind, no one should have them.

LOL. You managed to contradict yourself in a single phrase.

[Tiggs]

Maybe the israeli government of the time quite liked the idea that certain people would think that Israel had the bomb (there is a conspiracy theory that Vanunu was set up all along and that Shin Bet had tagged him in the late 70's as just the fall guy activist to use).

That would probably be a much more plausible conspiracy theory if every single intelligence agency in the world weren't convinced that Israel had the bomb by the late 60's.

You can keep throwing 'unnamed officials' trying to put the willies up enemies in the region, 'subs that can carry cruise missiles that can carry nuclear warheads' and slips of the tongue by an old fella that worked on something 50 years ago forever.

I think I've provided more than enough evidence to prove my case to a neutral observer.

[Moon Monkey]

That would probably be a much more plausible conspiracy theory if every single intelligence agency in the world weren't convinced that Israel had the bomb by the late 60's.

I think I've provided more than enough evidence to prove my case to a neutral observer.

Opinion, circumstantial evidence and the testimony of a ex-employee with an axe to grind. Now having proven this maybe you should use the same approach and prove the Phil Schneider story.

I will say it again, I am of the opinion that Israel has the bomb, you also believe the evidence points to that being the case, neither of us know it for sure.