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When the evidence is overwhelming


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DOH! did i just tell every frindge dwelling lunatic on the UM forum exactly where I live? :o

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Assumption 1 is faulty because as far as we know, the universe is not infinite. Space is infinite, matter is not.

That's why I said or near enough... We're talking about numbers so huge, of solar systems, that I am happy to call it infinate... you're quibbling - there are soooo many galaxies that my whole line of deduction holds.

Assumption 2 is faulty because we do not know the frequency of life occuring, it might be very very rare. It might not be.

Again, purely because of the shear size it's likely I am correct, although, I grant you this one. My assumption is based on infinity too much. If we are talking about a finite number of galaxies, then, yes, frequency is important.

My point is this though, if you are talking about numbers like billions to the power of billions, even a .o1% frequency still means you'd have TONNES of aliens and tonnes that would have high tech.

Assumption 3 is faulty because of the age of the universe and what we know of evolution. A species can easily appear and disappear in less than a million years, but the universe is 14 billion years old. There might have been a race of aliens more advanced than us who died out more than a billion years ago. Not to mention that we do not know the frequency that human-or-higher intelligence would occur.

Again, you keep ignoring the sheer size of the universe, which is how my whole line of deduction begins.

Of course some would die out, but because I assume there must be so many, so many would NOT have been wiped out and would be millions of years evolved.

Assumption 4 is a huge IF. We don't know if technology has limits, we just don't. Science fiction writers easily get past the speed of light travel problem, but it is a problem for a reason. It may not be possible.

I flat out disagree with this one - Logic dictates tech is basically limitless. Besides we may use a way AROUND FTL. Not saying we have to move FTL.

Assumption 5 is mostly faulty because of time. Maybe there are a ton of alien species exploring the universe right now, but the universe is still amazingly huge with an obscene amount of solar systems. Even with god-like technology they may still not find us.

I think that statement is overly pessimistic and not realistic.

If you have God like tech, then by definition, you could see everywhere.

Now imagine is 70, 700, 7000 or more species have God-like tech...

Oh they KNOW of us alright! ;)

The whole arguement draws way too large assumptions to be valid.

I'm not saying it's flawless, I'm not saying it's perfect logic or infallible, I'm just pointing out that when you look at the size and age of the universe it is a WHOLE lot more likely that we have been 'found' than a lot of people believe!

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There is a LOGICAL argument that I used to have with people that I haven't heard a single person ever mention in the debate for or againts ET visitations...

I'll try to make it short and sweet.

Assumption 1: The universe is infinate, or near enough to infinite.

Assumption 2: If 1, then there must be near infinate number of aliens.

Assumption 3: If 2, then there must be millions or even billions that currently have high technology.

Assumption 4: If technology keeps increasing exponentially, then these aliens with high tech must be able to travel anywhere.

Assumption 5: If 4 and all above then there must be many alien races that know of Earth.

This cannot be refuted if the universe is infinately big (unless it was lets say only a few thousand years old... but it;s not)

Paxus, your definition of logical argument needs some work....

In logic and rhetoric, a fallacy is a misconception resulting from incorrect reasoning in argumentation. By accident or design, fallacies may exploit emotional triggers in the listener or interlocutor (e.g. appeal to emotion), or take advantage of social relationships between people (e.g. argument from authority). Fallacious arguments are often structured using rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical argument, making fallacies more difficult to diagnose. Also, the components of the fallacy may be spread out over separate arguments.

Logical_fallacy

Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error, is a formal fallacy, committed by reasoning in the form:

  1. If P, then Q.
  2. Q.
  3. Therefore, P.

An argument of this form is invalid, i.e., the conclusion can be false even when statements 1 and 2 are true. Since P was never asserted as the only sufficient condition for Q, other factors could account for Q (while P was false).

Affirming the consequent

Reification (also known as hypostatisation, concretism, or the fallacy of misplaced concreteness) is a fallacy of ambiguity, when an abstraction (abstract belief or hypothetical construct) is treated as if it were a concrete, real event, or physical entity. In other words, it is the error of treating as a "real thing" something which is not a real thing, but merely an idea. For example: if the phrase "holds another's affection", is taken literally, affection would be reified.

Reification

If your interested in applying the formal structure of logical deduction to the UFO phenomenon, a working knowledge of the mechanics of Propositional calculus would be helpful.:yes:

To recap....

Assumption #1 is false. Modern observations indicate the known universe is finite.

As assumptions #2, #3 and #4 are dependant on the validity of assumption #1, the exercise is rendered moot.

As a final note, infinity is just that... infinity and is not quantifiable. One hundred billion is no closer to infinity than one.:huh:

Edit to acknowledge Larvings post :tu:

Edited by Drunkenparrot
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DOH! did i just tell every frindge dwelling lunatic on the UM forum exactly where I live? :o

Lol, yes you did indeed Paxus, I can see your serious about leaving. I suggest having a bag ready like a woman in labor :D

As for your question, personally I think some peoples ideas of overwhelming evidence must include some physical remnant of the event or contact. Like mangled remains of a biological entity, or remains of a ship proven to not come from earth. Or they must be a player in the event itself, sometimes that is not enough.

We humans are notorious for the ability to ignore the pink elephant sitting there farting in our living room. From history it always goes like this for any big new revelation of society rocking information. I am glad we are beyond the times of burning those of different mind sets physically, we still fan the flames emotionally and mock the people who in later centuries are called "Thinkers and minds born before their times"

I am not saying that this is the case here really, just we have a history of shunning new truths and clutch the old ones until they are just dust in the hands. Last year the Pope said it was alright to believe that Aliens could exist and it does not go against the belief of god or the church. They have no tolerance for our differences as a people but here is a great hand of friendship for beings not of this world, and not even proven to be true. Normally the church is the first to start the holy crusade with those who are not of their EXACT branch of Christianity. Times are changing and slowly the idea of "We are not alone" is spreading, I am un sure as to where this will all go, but something is going to happen. Hopefully sooner rather then later.

Edited by Dancingtiger
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My point is this though, if you are talking about numbers like billions to the power of billions, even a .o1% frequency still means you'd have TONNES of aliens and tonnes that would have high tech.

There are not even nearly that many atoms in the observable unverse.

I flat out disagree with this one - Logic dictates tech is basically limitless. Besides we may use a way AROUND FTL. Not saying we have to move FTL.

I really do not see how you arrive at this or how logic would play in. And just because we can imagine ways around faster than light travel does not mean any of them are possible, let alone plausible.

I'm not saying it's flawless, I'm not saying it's perfect logic or infallible, I'm just pointing out that when you look at the size and age of the universe it is a WHOLE lot more likely that we have been 'found' than a lot of people believe!

And what I'm saying is that given current knowledge we have no way of determining the odds of something like that.

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One common theory is that ETs "discovered" our solar system long ago, and have been visiting on and off for hundreds or possibly even thousands of years, and even established bases here--possibly underwater. Given a multiverse that's billions of years old with an uncounted number of stars and planets, it could well be that the famous Fermi Paradox is resolved by the fact that the ETs really are all over the place, but just choosing not to make open contact with us.

All the witnesses and documents that I take pretty seriously shows them to avoid such contact, and even if they come in for a landing to collect samples of whatever, the duration is usually very brief. Often they get chased off by the military, but they don't seem to want an open confrontation. I also believe some witnesses who report that the US government has more information about all this that it has ever been willing to disclose.

I could also buy the idea that the UFO sightings increased greatly during World War II and the Cold War, which seems to be the case from the historical records we have. Maybe what was once a low-level monitoring mission for the various spacefaring ETs became a much higher priority once they saw that earth was moving very quickly ahead in the development of jets, rockets, satellites, and nuclear weapons.

Any advanced civilization that had been monitoring the earth from either short or long range might very likely have noticed all those nuclear explosions being set off in the atmosphere, and become curious and perhaps even alarmed at what was going on.

I have no way of knowing, but I have often wondered why the biggest UFO wave in history happened in 1952-54, which is the same time when the first H-Bombs were tested. They even buzzed Washington, DC in the summer of 1952 in a way that had everyone from the persident on down gravely concerned, no matter what they said in public.

Edited by mcmchugh99
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Drunkenparrot, you really are, aren't you?... (A drunken parrot) :lol:

I clearly stated I'm not saying it's flawless, I'm not saying it's perfect logic or infallible.

I suggest you read someone's posts thoroughly before you come across all smug, condecending and belittling. :tu:

My deduction line is merely to point out that in a HUUUGE universe many aliens are likely, etc...

So assumption one, is not false, but simply misunderstood by you. Nothing I said is 100% moot.

Gotcha DancingTiger!

Yeh, I realise about people's desire for truth. I am one of those desiring it!

I found your point that humans have a tendancy to ignore or at least to shy away from new truths interesting.

Good point about the pope too! That one is more interesting to me, from the point of view of it hinting at the possibility of up-coming disclosure. Governments are starting to give out tid-bits, now the popey man... I wonder...

Wouldn't it be nice to wake up one day, turn on the news and see 'it' all out in the open for all to see, yes everyone, we have had contact for quite a few years now, and here are all the details?

Yeh, mcmchugh99, I'm aware of all those and tend to lean toward these ideas having merit.

Kooky or not but I also think the possibility of the missing link being that we are the result of some DNA meddling or experimenting isn't too far fetched.... rather quite likely...

Edited by Paxus
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Drunkenparrot, you really are, aren't you?... (A drunken parrot) :lol:

I clearly stated I'm not saying it's flawless, I'm not saying it's perfect logic or infallible.

I suggest you read someone's posts thoroughly before you come across all smug, condecending and belittling. :tu:

Paxus, my appologies.

We are all friends here. :tu:

Edited by Drunkenparrot
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Thanks, it's late - bit sensitive at 0555 hours - night all.

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There are a few historical aspects that must be considered when interpreting accounts from that time.

1) Early RADAR was not very reliable and was highly prone to false positives. At least one of the installations in this event used equipment that dated back to WWII.

2) Cold War tensions where high and everything out of the ordinary was to be reported leading to an apparent spike in the incidents of UFOs by military and civilian witnesses.

3) There were secret projects in the works on all sides. Details of these projects were hidden even from members of the same armed forces. There is no telling how many sightings were really our own hardware.

As I recall from the Condon report, key details of this case were collected years after the fact from a person whose identity was not disclosed nor his credentials checked. He volunteered the information and was not sought for it. That does not invalidate it but does call it into question.

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One common theory is that ETs "discovered" our solar system long ago, and have been visiting on and off for hundreds or possibly even thousands of years, and even established bases here--possibly underwater. Given a multiverse that's billions of years old with an uncounted number of stars and planets, it could well be that the famous Fermi Paradox is resolved by the fact that the ETs really are all over the place, but just choosing not to make open contact with us.

Frankly, I still do not see the paradox in the Fermi Paradox. If Einstein's theories are correct and there are no means to cross interstellar space in any reasonable amount of time, then there could be millions, if not billions of intelligent species scattered across the galaxy, they just can't get here.

All the witnesses and documents that I take pretty seriously shows them to avoid such contact, and even if they come in for a landing to collect samples of whatever, the duration is usually very brief. Often they get chased off by the military, but they don't seem to want an open confrontation. I also believe some witnesses who report that the US government has more information about all this that it has ever been willing to disclose.

Which is of course your interpretation of said documents, whatever they are. All the documents I take pretty seriously describe no such thing, rather the opposite.

I could also buy the idea that the UFO sightings increased greatly during World War II and the Cold War, which seems to be the case from the historical records we have.

Of course they increased. Everybody was antsy and on the look-out for enemy fighters and bombers.

Any advanced civilization that had been monitoring the earth from either short or long range might very likely have noticed all those nuclear explosions being set off in the atmosphere, and become curious and perhaps even alarmed at what was going on.

No, unless they were very close to Earth (say within cis-lunar orbit) they would have no means to detect nuclear explosions. Our "petty" bombs are completely dwarfed by things that happen in space otherwise.

I have no way of knowing, but I have often wondered why the biggest UFO wave in history happened in 1952-54, which is the same time when the first H-Bombs were tested. They even buzzed Washington, DC in the summer of 1952 in a way that had everyone from the persident on down gravely concerned, no matter what they said in public.

As Sine correctly stated, relatively unreliable radar and Cold War tensions. Not so strange at all.

Cheers,

Badeskov

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My apologies if this incident has been discussed already - I admit I haven't checked.

The reason I'm posting isn't so much to discuss this incident but to ask why there is still any doubt about ET craft flying around here on dear lil' Earth when there is such overwhelming and credible evidence to the contrary?...

It is these sightings that have come to convince me that ET do fly around Earth. I.e. When not just sighted but sighted by ground, by pilots and by radar, all together.

The overwhelming evidence I'm talking about comes from incidents like the 1956 Lakenheath radar & visual sightings.

If you're not familiar with this incident, click here.

Keep in mind, here we have several radar operators from at least 2 sites, several pilots and people on the ground, all who are credible witnesses sighting what could not have been man-made or meteorological phenomenon.

By no means is this a unique case either.

If you are still adamant that UFOs in such instances are NOT ET craft please discuss why....

i am still waiting to see this so called overwhelming evidence, radar is open to many anomalies ie ground

clutter, pictures i have yet to see a convincing photo that wasnt grainy/blurred or out of focus

as an ex royal navy gunnery specialist, trained on radar & target aquisition i know how easy it is to be fooled by

perfectly explainable phenomenon i certainly have been,ET sorry i have yet to see any "evidence" that even vaguely convinces me

in summary ET yes ( law of averages,) ET vistiting earth :hmm: jury is still out

Edited by maca 01
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And not so long ago, Japan's Defense Minister commented that UFOs were real ET craft.

More and more governments seem to be making statements like these in recent years.

A UFO Threat?

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And not so long ago, Japan's Defense Minister commented that UFOs were real ET craft.

More and more governments seem to be making statements like these in recent years.

A UFO Threat?

From your link:

“There are no grounds for us to deny that there are unidentified flying objects (UFOs) and some life-form that controls them,” Ishiba told reporters, saying it was his personal view and not that of the defence ministry."

Emphasis mine.

Cheers,

Badeskov

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And not so long ago, Japan's Defense Minister commented that UFOs were real ET craft.

More and more governments seem to be making statements like these in recent years.

A UFO Threat?

as are godzilla & mothra :innocent:

Edited by maca 01
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Gerald Ford said it best in 1966, that "the American public deserves a better explanation than that thus far given by the Air Force".

After 60-70 years of this phenomenon, the American people are entitled to a better explanation than what we have been getting all this time--that all UFOs are just swamp gas reflected off crash test dummies in the light of the planet Venus, or whatever. We've heard all THAT a million times.

And I believe the majority of my fellow American agree that we want disclosure, like other countries have begun to do.

Gerald Ford on UFOs

Edited by mcmchugh99
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There are probably still a bunch of classified project standing in the way of real explanations. Not to mention the possibility of current ones being compromised.

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Here's a list of UFO sightings near nuclear plants and areas with nuclear weapons.

The earliest one dates from September 1944 when a UFO was seen hovering near the uranium plant at Oak Ridge, Tenn.

In July 1945, six naval fighters were scambled after a very large UFO was caught on radar at 65,000 feet, hovering over the plutonium plant in Hanford, Washington. They couldn't reach it altitude, however, and The Thing flew straight up and disappeared.

UFOs and Nuclear Facilities

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That UFOs are attracted to nuclear sites has long been a claim but if you look at UFO sighting maps you will see that they closely correspond with population centers. Oddly enough those UFO maps are strikingly similar to maps of Bigfoot sightings.

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That UFOs are attracted to nuclear sites has long been a claim but if you look at UFO sighting maps you will see that they closely correspond with population centers. Oddly enough those UFO maps are strikingly similar to maps of Bigfoot sightings.

Obviously Bigfoot is an alien, s'why we never find any corpses.

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Obviously Bigfoot is an alien, s'why we never find any corpses.

I am sure many would draw that conclusion.

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Another possible explanation would be the very high level of security at all nuclear facilities 24/7 that is required to report anything unusual, or perceived attempts at intrusion or observation. Almost all of these facilities are way out in the bookdocks, like Hanford, Oak Ridge, Los Alamos, White Sands, the missile silos. They deliberately kept them away from major cities in case anything went wrong, and to avoid too many prying eyes and unwanted questions.

Way out there in the American desert, in places like Groom Lake, Roswell, the nuclear test site, Los Alamos, you can drive 50 or 100 miles in any direction and see plenty of nothing--not a tree, a house, a building or a gas station. There's generally a good clear view in the skies, too, both day and night, since it hardly ever rains our snows out there, except in the mountains. Very good flying conditions year round, and also good conditions for seeing UFOs.

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And there were certainly many top people in US military and intelligence circles who stated that some UFOs were ET and the phenomenon was being studied closely in secret: Adm. Roscoe Hillenkoetter, a former CIA direcetor, Gen. Nathan Twining at Air Material Command, Gen. Charles Cabell, a top CIA and Air Force intelligence official, who demanded that the Air Force take the subject more seriously, and many more.

Quotes from ETH Supporters

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And there were certainly many top people in US military and intelligence circles who stated that some UFOs were ET and the phenomenon was being studied closely in secret: Adm. Roscoe Hillenkoetter, a former CIA direcetor, Gen. Nathan Twining at Air Material Command, Gen. Charles Cabell, a top CIA and Air Force intelligence official, who demanded that the Air Force take the subject more seriously, and many more.

Quotes from ETH Supporters

With the fate of world at stake, what might you do if you had the responsibility to maintain the secrecy of classified projects and surveillance operations that unavoidably drifted into public view? A wild story that plays into existing hysteria might be a good way to diffuse the situation, no?

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Thanks to people commenting, re: radar sightings.

I see, so radar has errors, anomalies and 'ground clutter'.

I could accept that as an explanation in one or two cases....but in SO many of them?

Are you considering that it doesn't makes sense that errors, anomalies and 'ground clutter' would go on for several minutes or hours and that they wouldn't be UNIFORM from one station to another?

Are you saying that 2 different radar stations (and even the aircraft in the air) are going to have the same anomalies at the same time???

That's HIGHLY unlikely.

Don't forget, after these events, the 'contact' is checked out, the equipment is checked out. In all these convincing stories, the equipment checked out fine.

I also don't expect errors, anomalies or 'ground clutter' to behave like an aircraft under intelligent control!

Then there's the INTERCEPTS!

How do you explain the MANY encounters fighter pilots have had where they intercept, give chase and in some cases fire upon UFOs?

How can anything but an ET craft clearly maneuver away or around them.

Remember some of this cat n mouse 'play' in our skies has gone on for several minutes.

No meteorological phenomenon or weather balloons, play chasey with fighter jets!

Seriously, even as an objective skeptic, you must admit that fighter intercepts are very compelling evidence that UFO are ET controlled.

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