Official UM "Predictions Watch" Thread

[acute]

I predict that 2018 will continue in much the same fashion as previously. (until 2019, that is)

[Space Commander Travis]

Well, it's time for some whole new ones isn't it. And what are the predictions for the year of twenty nineteen? Well, let me consult the Orb, and I'm going to say:

Brexit

Brexit 

Brexit

Brexit

Trump

Putin

Putin

Trump 

 

You see if I'ma wrong! 

[Golden Duck]

England will regain the Ashes.

Is that the kind of predictions we're after?

[John from Lowell]

The year 2020 will see the arrival of the magnetic electrical generator. This invention will replace the way humanity gets electricity.

 

[Mr Walker]

It doesn't look like anyone much reads this section, but i would like to use it to note a gut feeling i have. 

During the presidential election, China will invade Taiwan, and probably quite easily conquer it  (Although with considerable casualties on both sides )

China's annexation of Taiwan is inevitable, sometime in the next few years  , unless China believes America will go to war over it, but i just have a feeling it might happen sooner than expected. 

Recent chinese incursions haven't just been to test Taiwan's military responses, but America's political one (and to a lesser extent the rest of the world, although America is the only nation still capable of challenging China militarily) . 

[Chronus]

On 9/28/2020 at 11:18 PM, Mr Walker said:

It doesn't look like anyone much reads this section, but i would like to use it to note a gut feeling i have. 

During the presidential election, China will invade Taiwan, and probably quite easily conquer it  (Although with considerable casualties on both sides )

China's annexation of Taiwan is inevitable, sometime in the next few years  , unless China believes America will go to war over it, but i just have a feeling it might happen sooner than expected. 

Recent chinese incursions haven't just been to test Taiwan's military responses, but America's political one (and to a lesser extent the rest of the world, although America is the only nation still capable of challenging China militarily) . 

Would China have a reason to invade Taiwan? I'm not into politics so I don't know.

[onlookerofmayhem]

43 minutes ago, Chronus said:

Would China have a reason to invade Taiwan? I'm not into politics so I don't know.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan

[Indiogene]

If only anyone back in 2011 when this thread started predicted what will happen in 2020 with the COVID pandemic, that would be so cool. Here are 2 predictions in the last 3 months of this cursed year: Biden wins the presidential election in Nov. and possible conflicts with Iran in Dec., since the year started with the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Solemiani for his involvement assisting anti-US/Iraqi govt. militias near Baghdad. Just when Biden is inaugurated next Jan., China and Iran team up and they declare war on the US and our allies. 

[Mr Walker]

11 hours ago, Chronus said:

Would China have a reason to invade Taiwan? I'm not into politics so I don't know.

China claims Taiwan as a part of its territory and nation. When the communists defeated the NAtionalists the nationalists retreated to the island of Formosa/Taiwan and created Taiwan as an independent country   They took a lot of the wealth of the central govt with them  Originally most countries recognised Taiwan as either a separate nation or as one of two separate Chinas, but now few countries recognise Taiwan. 

China has slowly isolated Taiwan by diplomatic and economic  pressure, so tha t few nations any longer recognise Taiwan as an independent nation  

It has been flying a lot of   military sorties across the narrow strait which  separates the island from  the mainland, to test Taiwan's response and the reactions of it's allies 

The US remains Taiwan's main protector. 

China has sworn to retake and reintegrate Taiwan into greater China.

It will seek an opportune time to do so 

American elections would be a good time, and if President Trump is out of action, and the chain of command is tenuous,  it will be even more tempting .

An invasion and occupation will come eventually, as China becomes too powerful for even America to stop, but this is an unusual opportunity. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Mr Walker

[quillius]

On 7/7/2018 at 8:59 PM, jerry1234 said:

2019/20 Turkey will see a civil war kind asituation, Erdogan will march into Syria (nortern part ) and will try to blame the kurds for everything, which will turn the whole situation into a civil war.

2019 NK and Sk will start the reuniting and there will be a fake song of peace

2019/20 China will annex Taiwan

2020 world economy will collapse

2020/21 massiev protests in the EU against teh right wing governments --< civil war like situations

2021 Russia will "help" Turkey with their civil war

2022-25 WW3

Afetrwards some kind of UNO like after every WW (LOL) will emerge but  I guess it won't work this time around (like the past two times lol). All those thought schools and seeds whcih were planted will lead the warafter world onto diiferent paths   I'd say the whole concept of natioal states will not be accepted anymore by large parts of the world population.

 

A glimpse of my world view. based on my observation, reading of predections, political education and so on

 

the two bolded were not too bad as far as predictions go.......

[Chronus]

8 hours ago, Mr Walker said:

China claims Taiwan as a part of its territory and nation. When the communists defeated the NAtionalists the nationalists retreated to the island of Formosa/Taiwan and created Taiwan as an independent country   They took a lot of the wealth of the central govt with them  Originally most countries recognised Taiwan as either a separate nation or as one of two separate Chinas, but now few countries recognise Taiwan. 

China has slowly isolated Taiwan by diplomatic and economic  pressure, so tha t few nations any longer recognise Taiwan as an independent nation  

It has been flying a lot of   military sorties across the narrow strait which  separates the island from  the mainland, to test Taiwan's response and the reactions of it's allies 

The US remains Taiwan's main protector. 

China has sworn to retake and reintegrate Taiwan into greater China.

It will seek an opportune time to do so 

American elections would be a good time, and if President Trump is out of action, and the chain of command is tenuous,  it will be even more tempting .

An invasion and occupation will come eventually, as China becomes too powerful for even America to stop, but this is an unusual opportunity. 

Well... That's gonna be bad if it happens,

[ThereWeAreThen]

8 hours ago, Mr Walker said:

China claims Taiwan as a part of its territory and nation. When the communists defeated the NAtionalists the nationalists retreated to the island of Formosa/Taiwan and created Taiwan as an independent country   They took a lot of the wealth of the central govt with them  Originally most countries recognised Taiwan as either a separate nation or as one of two separate Chinas, but now few countries recognise Taiwan. 

China has slowly isolated Taiwan by diplomatic and economic  pressure, so tha t few nations any longer recognise Taiwan as an independent nation  

It has been flying a lot of   military sorties across the narrow strait which  separates the island from  the mainland, to test Taiwan's response and the reactions of it's allies 

The US remains Taiwan's main protector. 

China has sworn to retake and reintegrate Taiwan into greater China.

It will seek an opportune time to do so 

American elections would be a good time, and if President Trump is out of action, and the chain of command is tenuous,  it will be even more tempting .

An invasion and occupation will come eventually, as China becomes too powerful for even America to stop, but this is an unusual opportunity. 

Not to mention Taiwan is a much better run country who actually gives their people rights. Very innovative as well actually.

[Golden Duck]

On 1/7/2019 at 12:15 PM, Golden Duck said:

England will regain the Ashes.

Is that the kind of predictions we're after?

Hah!, @Piney, I was (happily) wrong!

[Piney]

20 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Hah!, @Piney, I was (happily) wrong!

[Piney]

12 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Not to mention Taiwan is a much better run country who actually gives their people rights. Very innovative as well actually.

Except when it comes to the indigenous Formosans. 

[jmccr8]

3 hours ago, Piney said:

Except when it comes to the indigenous Formosans. 

Hi Piney

Not so different from many occupied countries.

jmccr8

[Mr Walker]

On 10/6/2020 at 10:46 AM, Piney said:

Except when it comes to the indigenous Formosans. 

The indigenous formosans had been living a fairly isolated existence  for millennia, but in the  1600s ethnic chinese began occupying Formosa.

  Today there is so much intermarriage its hard to define an indigenous Formosan  (except through heritage and claim)    but it is true that  the y are (like many indigenous peoples around the world) comparatively disadvantaged This may be  in part because they live more in remote areas.

  Within the indigenous peoples there are at least 4 main separate ethnic groups recognised by the govt and a number of others as yet not officially recognised. 

quote

The democratic era has been a time of great change, both constructive and destructive, for the aborigines of Taiwan. Since the 1980s, increased political and public attention has been paid to the rights and social issues of the indigenous communities of Taiwan. Aborigines have realized gains in both the political and economic spheres. Though progress is ongoing, there remain a number of still unrealized goals within the framework of the ROC: "although certainly more 'equal' than they were 20, or even 10, years ago, the indigenous inhabitants in Taiwan still remain on the lowest rungs of the legal and socioeconomic ladders".[35] On the other hand, bright spots are not hard to find. A resurgence in ethnic pride has accompanied the aboriginal cultural renaissance, which is exemplified by the increased popularity of aboriginal music and greater public interest in aboriginal culture.[178]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_indigenous_peoples.

 You probably knew all this Piney, but  it might be interesting to others 

Interestingly the indigenous people of Taiwan are closest to polynesians or austronesians both genetically and by language  Austronesians seem to have originated in Formosa (although this is debated)  and migrated  by sea about 4-5000  years ago, right across the Pacific and perhaps as far as the Americas.  Like the polynesians the y were good boat builders and navigators, and were amongst the first humans to develop maritime sailing technologies which allowed ocean crossing. . 

[theotherguy]

I'm bringing this thread back for a couple of observations. First, I don't see any mention of a worldwide pandemic, or even a small regional epidemic (although I admit I'm skimming quickly). Second, I don't think WW3 has broken out yet. There's still time for a few of the more recent predictions, but a lot of them didn't quite pan out.

Now, just so this post isn't pure negativism, I'll put in a couple of predictions of my own. First, the 2020s will not see any global war or aggression, although there might be a large, disorganized conflict in central/eastern Africa around the end of the decade. Political tensions will continue to run hot in the US and Europe, although religious tension will die down for a while. And for my most specific prediction, in 2027, the owner of a major electronics manufacturer will become the richest person in the world.

[+Desertrat56]

 

 

[XenoFish]

My prediction for the years 2021 through 2024, we are all doomed.