China and India at War: Hypothetical scenario

[Karlis]

There are plenty of reasons why China and India won't go to war. The two Asian giants hope to reach $100 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2015. Peace and stability are watchwords for both nations' rise on the world stage. Yet tensions between the neighbors seem inescapable: they face each other across a heavily militarized nearly 4,000km-long border and are increasingly competing against each other in a scramble for natural resources around the world. Read more...

[Wyrdlight]

Assuming neither use thier stockpile of nukes, and assuming that Pakistahn, USA, Britain, EU, Russia dont get involved..... it would be a very, very close run thing.

I think that on balence China has the better hardwear in terms of Airpower etc and proberly in short term numbers, but India has better quaility troops in terms of training and morale, and a more recent history of conflict to draw upon as well as certain socio-religious attributes that make them agressive and warlike when they have to be.

Depending on who invades who.......

Impossible to call in my view, no such war would be an isolated event, the UK would almost certainly step in to side with India etc etc.

[Bavarian Raven]

i'd put my money on china (nukes and foreign countrys aside). China (from what I have seen) has better equipment and numbers. While India has some soldiers who are very well trained, overall, i'd say the chinese have the advantage in numbers (they do have the larger trained number), plus, better air power. Plus, in a situation like this, outside powers like US would probably support China over India, just in terms on trading partners and the such.

[Wyrdlight]

i'd put my money on china (nukes and foreign countrys aside). China (from what I have seen) has better equipment and numbers. While India has some soldiers who are very well trained, overall, i'd say the chinese have the advantage in numbers (they do have the larger trained number), plus, better air power. Plus, in a situation like this, outside powers like US would probably support China over India, just in terms on trading partners and the such.

I dont know that the USA would support China, the UK would support India, and I dont see the USA siding against the UK, plus can you see the USA siding with a communist state against its longest and most trusted allie?

[Corp]

I'd give it to China just on weight of numbers. The best hope for India would be to make the Chinese bleed as much a possible and hope they either have some internal revolts or international pressure makes war just not worth the cost. After all even if Pakistan were to stay neutral, unlikely, India would still need to keep a large part of their military on the border to watch them.

[Travelling Man]

The problem is that the Chinese don't CARE how much they bleed.

During the Korean War, the first wave of infantry soldiers in any attack were armed with rifles. When they were killed or repulsed, the second wave would run up WITHOUT WEAPONS to where they could grab one and then continue the charge. This was standard and happened many hundreds of times as long as China was involved in the War.

They simply don't CARE.

Why bother sending a million dollar missle to blow up 100 people when they can send 10,000 to kill the 100... even if it means only getting 100 people back afterward.

Totally different culture and attitude, and it's wrong to try to describe them with US/Western cultural norms.

[Wyrdlight]

The problem is that the Chinese don't CARE how much they bleed.

During the Korean War, the first wave of infantry soldiers in any attack were armed with rifles. When they were killed or repulsed, the second wave would run up WITHOUT WEAPONS to where they could grab one and then continue the charge. This was standard and happened many hundreds of times as long as China was involved in the War.

They simply don't CARE.

Why bother sending a million dollar missle to blow up 100 people when they can send 10,000 to kill the 100... even if it means only getting 100 people back afterward.

Totally different culture and attitude, and it's wrong to try to describe them with US/Western cultural norms.

Yes, but int he Korean war we we were not using assault rifles. And we DID make em bleed so much they gave up. No nation on this earth can suatain such a massive rate of attrition.

The chinease culture is far less martial than the Indian one, I dont think Chinese troops have the morale and conviction to fight in such a fashion as you desctibe in the long run, I dont care how big China's army is, there is no way It could win via "Human Wave" vs an enemy as numerous as the Indian army.

Indian Army statistics

Active Troops

1,100,000[51]

Reserve Troops

960,000

Indian Territorial Army

787,000**

Main battle tanks

4,117

Artillery

4,238

Ballistic missiles

~100 (Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III)

Ballistic missiles

~1,000 Prithvi missile series

Cruise missiles

~1,000 BrahMos

Aircraft

~1,600+

Surface-to-air missiles

100,000

Chinease Army Numbers.

2,285,000 Active personel.

All other data is unknown, but you can see that India has, with its reserves and territorial army, roughly the same sized army. And that is without a national consription, which would potentially add 1-3 MILLION men at least.

India is also building the new Arjan tanks, which in testing have proved greatly superior to the t-90.

If on the defensive? India would win.

Edited October 31, 2011 by Wyrdlight

[Bavarian Raven]

really scary thought - somehow, India and China putting aside their differences and uniting as allies in a war

[Taun]

Another thing to look at in this hypothetical war is Infrastructure...

A land attack between the two would probably work to India's advantage... A casual look at a good map will show a much better road network on the Indian sideof the Himalaya's than on the Chinese side (within Tibet and bordering China)...

India would most likely be much better able to logistically support it's troops and operations...

China would be hard pressed to maintain a blockade of India - starving it of outside support, so India would be able to receive whatever foreign support would be offered... Also, China would potentially face a Tibetan 'underground' that would further disrupt it's supply lines...

All India would need to do to 'win' the war would be to occupy Tibet and proclaim it 'liberated', while China would need to penetrate relatively deeply into India to 'knock them out' - largely because of foreign support...

I can't see either nation successfully occupying any sizeable territories of the others country (Not counting China's claim on Tibet)... Economic 'drain', outside political pressure and attrition would decided the conflict...

Edited November 1, 2011 by Taun

[make me believe]

China is 90% Han Chinese, whereas India is a boiling cauldron of many different ethnicities and religions. These differences would no doubt flame up if resources were strained or if one group or another was perceived to get special treatment. In times of crisis or disaster, diverse societies break down much easier than homogeneous ones. Just look at the difference between the way ethnically homogeneous Japan came together after the Tsunami and the chaos that ensued after Hurricane Katrina in the multi-ethnic paradise of New Orleans.

In short, China would win most battles, even though the war would probably end in stalemate. In the end, India would be much worse off...

.

Japan after Tsunami:

America after Katrina:

Edited November 2, 2011 by make me believe

[+DieChecker]

I'd give the edge to China. Though I think very little ground would trade hands. Mainly it would be a Bomb/Raid/Missle attack war, IMHO. China has the edge, AFAIK, in officers and equipment and planning. But the two nations populations are close enough that saying the Chinese would roll over the Indians is laughable. The Indians have a history of being hard headed toward invaders and being very warlike. The Chinese by comparison seem to be very docile in modern times.

The bulk of India's military is dedicated in the West to facing Pakistan. So the tactic I would use against them would be to use a holding force to attack across the north west corner of the himolayas at the main Indian military body. While a Giant force rolls south and then West around the Himolayas and quickly penetrates into India proper. The bulk of the Indian military would be tied up against the holding action in the NW, and to prevent a Pakistani attack of opportunity. While any forces summoned up or diverted toward the main Chinese advance would be chewed up one after the other as they appeared. The key would be to keep the invasion force moving.

[veer]

India is already cornered, Pakistan and China have been good allies for a long time.Recently I had read in the news paper that pakistani and chinese nationals can travel inbetween the two without any visa.

Pakistan wants Kashmir to be separated from India and China has its eyes on states of India for ethnic reasons(my opinion), say states like Arunachal Pradesh etc in the north east regions closer to its border.

India will have to fight a two way war if it has conflicts with any of these countries in future.A losing war without allies.

The best way to counteract this situation is to make allies with nations within Asia such as north korea,Japan,taiwan and vietnam.

China has been building massive Military structures on the Indo-Chinese Borders and even on pakistani territory for a period of long time.India out of panic has put counter measures on the border.

I am an Indian and would say that our govt is very passive in international geo-politics.

China will easily win this hypothtical war in my opinion.

Edited November 14, 2011 by veer

[jesspy]

I would say china would win. But if there battles they would be tough. I think the whole water thing India and pakistan have going on is more of a concern and china judging by relations would pick pakistan. BTW is India nuclear?

[jesspy]

I'd give the edge to China. Though I think very little ground would trade hands. Mainly it would be a Bomb/Raid/Missle attack war, IMHO. China has the edge, AFAIK, in officers and equipment and planning. But the two nations populations are close enough that saying the Chinese would roll over the Indians is laughable. The Indians have a history of being hard headed toward invaders and being very warlike. The Chinese by comparison seem to be very docile in modern times.

The bulk of India's military is dedicated in the West to facing Pakistan. So the tactic I would use against them would be to use a holding force to attack across the north west corner of the himolayas at the main Indian military body. While a Giant force rolls south and then West around the Himolayas and quickly penetrates into India proper. The bulk of the Indian military would be tied up against the holding action in the NW, and to prevent a Pakistani attack of opportunity. While any forces summoned up or diverted toward the main Chinese advance would be chewed up one after the other as they appeared. The key would be to keep the invasion force moving.

Intresting thought. Would they have to cross the Himolayas in the summer or can this be a winter attack? What about the monsoon. But i agree keep the troops moving hence the season s questions since floods, snow, mud etc can stop or even trap troops.

[Bavarian Raven]

BTW is India nuclear?

yes, but to a lesser extent then china is i believe

[Uncle Sam]

Intresting thought. Would they have to cross the Himolayas in the summer or can this be a winter attack? What about the monsoon. But i agree keep the troops moving hence the season s questions since floods, snow, mud etc can stop or even trap troops.

Chinese Aircrafts and Navy is not built to traverse through winter, while their Tanks will break down. In terms, this would more of ground battle with troops on Chinese Side while India would pound them with American built Aircrafts and Tanks designed to withstand freezing tempatures during winter. Loss would be very big. This alone would offset the massive two-against one alliance Pakistan and China has.

Of course during Summer, it would be an different game when China can bring out their toys. In my opinion, the war will be started during Summer so China could get as much use with their vehicles untill winter comes along. If outside forces intervene like American Forces, youc an sure bet China and Pakistan will both be sent Packing from the Indian Territory.

If Indian Army invades, it would be best for them to start their offense during winter, which allows for them to have a massive advantage over the China's forces with technology advantage...

Edited December 7, 2011 by Phox