questionmark Posted July 12, 2012 #1 Share Posted July 12, 2012 The early human colonisation of islands might not have been plain sailing. Instead of using boats to deliberately settle on Indonesian islands, hominins may have arrived as castaways, carried on floating debris after floods. David Wilkinson of Liverpool John Moores University and Graeme Ruxton of the University of St Andrews, both in the UK, used population estimates from the early settlement of Polynesia to model the likely success of island settlement attempts in human prehistory. They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent. Read more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Wearer of Hats Posted July 12, 2012 #2 Share Posted July 12, 2012 You mean thay arrived their on floating rafts maid of reads? Those crafty hominims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
docyabut2 Posted July 12, 2012 #3 Share Posted July 12, 2012 They sure did island hop and made it all the way to the Americas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super-Fly Posted July 12, 2012 #4 Share Posted July 12, 2012 nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mule Posted July 12, 2012 #5 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Interesting article, but they didnt take their math far enough back "They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent." Tell me what the chance of "5 young couples" surviving as castaways is? Land bridge or actual nautical ability seems much more likely. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
questionmark Posted July 13, 2012 Author #6 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Interesting article, but they didnt take their math far enough back "They found that five young couples had a 40 per cent chance of giving rise to a population of 500 – or founding a population that survived for 500 years. Ten random castaways had only a 20 per cent chance of similar success. But throwing in between one and four additional castaways every 50 years raised the chances of an accidental settlement succeeding to 47 per cent." Tell me what the chance of "5 young couples" surviving as castaways is? Land bridge or actual nautical ability seems much more likely. Just my two cents. The intrinsic problem you are ignoring is: How many island settling do we know that would have needed a boat or by accident in the stone age? And suddenly we come to a number equal of about 2 every 10,000 years that were successful. And that is way beyond the statistical average possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Englishgent Posted July 13, 2012 #7 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Wouldn't be much use if both the castaways were either male or female lol Still, I suppose when a flood, or tsunami turned up, the idea was to grab the nearest female and drag her onto your floating debris just in case you happened upon a deserted island. Well, there was no TV in those days was there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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