Cease-Fire likely will not hold

[pallidin 9,212]

I seriously doubt that this is a "lasting" cease-fire, though I do certainly hope.

So, I wonder who will fire the first shot, or other territorial aggravation, to start this c**p all over again. My thought is Hamas. But it could be Israel.

Any thoughts? As nearly certainly this "peace" will not hold.

[Professor Buzzkill 2,491]

Hasn't Hamas already fired half a dozen rockets since the ceasefire?

http://news.sky.com/story/1014888/gaza-rockets-fired-hours-after-ceasefire

[pallidin 9,212]

Hasn't Hamas already fired half a dozen rockets since the ceasefire?

http://news.sky.com/...after-ceasefire

Well, I read the article, and that's disturbing.

Just my thoughts, but I think an all-out war is imminent, especially with Hamas weapons supplied by the countries you indicated.

After all, where is Hamas getting the money to buy those weapons? I have'nt seen a "Made in Gaza" label on anything. Or oil.

So, in my opinion, they are being funded by outside sources as you indicated.

They just hate the guts out of each other, and the Gaza strip is quickly losing expansion territory for increasing population.

Edited November 22, 2012 by pallidin

[Mr.United_Nations 2,768]

You get that in every ceasefire. I think i am wrong but when nazi germany fell, the day after there was few skirmishes

[Ashotep 13,740]

Didn't Hamas blow up a bus since the cease fire. I don't look for it to last long. If one side is being attacked you can't expect them to just sit there and do nothing. But we can hope.

[Professor T 2,288]

I hope it lasts.. But I don't think it will unless more pressure is placed on all parties to find a permament solution..

Also, as far as agression goes, A spark to re-ignite the conflict doesn't have to be confined between Israel and the Palestinians.

If Israel decides to go ahead and attack Iran then I think they'd be counter attacked by Iran, Hamas, Hisbolah, and maybe even factions within Syria... I think under those circumstances a ceasefire would take longer than 8 days to be reached, and the toll in lives much higher.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Professor T

[and then 29,411]

I hope it lasts.. But I don't think it will unless more pressure is placed on all parties to find a permament solution..

Also, as far as agression goes, A spark to re-ignite the conflict doesn't have to be confined between Israel and the Palestinians.

If Israel decides to go ahead and attack Iran then I think they'd be counter attacked by Iran, Hamas, Hisbolah, and maybe even factions within Syria... I think under those circumstances a ceasefire would take longer than 8 days to be reached, and the toll in lives much higer.

Psalm 83 describes a war between Israel and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Including the two entities that you mention. Israel wins. I'm not saying that is what is just ahead. But I do believe that it WILL happen.

Shaalu Shalom Yerushalayim

[Professor T 2,288]

Psalm 83 describes a war between Israel and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Including the two entities that you mention. Israel wins. I'm not saying that is what is just ahead. But I do believe that it WILL happen.

Shaalu Shalom Yerushalayim

All the more reason for the rest of the world to put some pressure on all parties in that region to stop hiding behind weapons and propaganda to find a permament solution that will prevent this kind of senario..

What frustrates me is that people, nations, we all take sides in this and stand back from the conflict going "whoop! whoop!" and throw support at whoever we're supporting and throwing "Boo! Shame!" at the oposition as though what has been occuring in the region is red v's blue politics, or north v's south sports.. This behavior is thanks to propaganda from both sides trying to justify what they're doing in the eyes of the world..

It's should be no surprise that the Media got a hammering in Gaza..

It's should be no surprise that the conflict is faught just as vigoursly on the airwaves and Web.

As far as I'm concerned, aside from humanitarian support when needed, they don't deserve any support, they need pressure to find that permament solution.

[Professor Buzzkill 2,491]

Psalm 83 describes a war between Israel and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Including the two entities that you mention. Israel wins. I'm not saying that is what is just ahead. But I do believe that it WILL happen.

Shaalu Shalom Yerushalayim

Is this the same conflict as discribed in Revelations? You know, the one between the antichrist and Jesus before the end of days?

[spartan max2 8,413]

the cease fire never holds

[A rather obscure Bassoon 2,132]

Is this the same conflict as discribed in Revelations? You know, the one between the antichrist and Jesus before the end of days?

http://othersidereflections.blogspot.ca/2011/06/problems-with-biblical-prophecy.html

http://xenlogic.wordpress.com/2010/11/21/a-skeptics-guide-to-bible-prophecy/

Don' worry Jesus won't be coming back anytime soon.So called Prophecy can be manipulated to fit any event.

Personally speaking the ramblings of St. John the Divine mean absolutely nothing to me and every time there is conflict in the Middle East why assume the world is going to end.

[and then 29,411]

Is this the same conflict as discribed in Revelations? You know, the one between the antichrist and Jesus before the end of days?

Some people think so but the majority who follow it seem to think that Psalm 83 precedes the last great war. In fact it sets up the conditions for that battle because Israel is supposed to be "at peace" with no walls or gates when they are attacked by a different group of nations - including Iran, Turkey and Russia, among others. That war is about taking a spoil - so they are different conflicts. That is described in Ezekiel 38 - 39.

[and then 29,411]

http://othersiderefl...l-prophecy.html

http://xenlogic.word...bible-prophecy/

Don' worry Jesus won't be coming back anytime soon.So called Prophecy can be manipulated to fit any event.

Personally speaking the ramblings of St. John the Divine mean absolutely nothing to me and every time there is conflict in the Middle East why assume the world is going to end.

I actually do respect the opinions of folks like you shaddow but I have a question. IF you were to see a war like I described would it have any effect on your thinking? That Psalm was recorded a couple thousand years ago and it stands a strengthening chance of being fulfilled in our lifetimes - in detail. But I have a feeling that even if it does, people who can't or don't believe will just blow it off and explain it away.

[WHO U KIDDIN 338]

This ceasefire is just a temporary lull before the big bang.

With his latest Machiavellian maneuvers Netanyahu is preparing the stage for his electoral win in January and his incessant campaign for war with Iran by summer 2013. Operation Pillar biggest success could be measured by how closely Hamas embraces its Arab brethren and begins to distance itself from Iran.

The recently accepted ceasefire brokered by Egypt’s Morsy with the support of the Arab League and Turkey has at least stopped the bloodshed for now. It certain that Israel will benefit if Egypt, Turkey and the AL nations can pull Hamas into their camp, and lure them away from Iran’s influence. It is no secret that the major powerbrokers in the AL (the Saudis and the Gulf Kingdoms) have no love for Iran.

If the AL manages to rein in Hamas, and if Assad is overthrown in Syria the only threat remaining to Israel on its border is Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Don’t be too surprise if Lebanon very soon starts unraveling in sectarian violence once again. To anyone with common sense it would appears that all of Iran’s proxies in the area are being neutralized. If true then Netanyahu’s Operation Pillar action may be just the first stage of a future greater war.

Blocked, checked, and mate! By way of deception, thou shall do war.

[and then 29,411]

This ceasefire is just a temporary lull before the big bang.

With his latest Machiavellian maneuvers Netanyahu is preparing the stage for his electoral win in January and his incessant campaign for war with Iran by summer 2013. Operation Pillar biggest success could be measured by how closely Hamas embraces its Arab brethren and begins to distance itself from Iran.

The recently accepted ceasefire brokered by Egypt’s Morsy with the support of the Arab League and Turkey has at least stopped the bloodshed for now. It certain that Israel will benefit if Egypt, Turkey and the AL nations can pull Hamas into their camp, and lure them away from Iran’s influence. It is no secret that the major powerbrokers in the AL (the Saudis and the Gulf Kingdoms) have no love for Iran.

If the AL manages to rein in Hamas, and if Assad is overthrown in Syria the only threat remaining to Israel on its border is Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Don’t be too surprise if Lebanon very soon starts unraveling in sectarian violence once again. To anyone with common sense it would appears that all of Iran’s proxies in the area are being neutralized. If true then Netanyahu’s Operation Pillar action may be just the first stage of a future greater war.

Blocked, checked, and mate! By way of deception, thou shall do war.

Your scenario makes sense except for the Syrian piece. The rebel groups can't even decide who will lead them. If the US or some Western entity were running them for their own purposes don't you think they'd work out a detail like that? As it is I suspect an element of the MB or maybe even Salafis will gain the upper hand if and when Assad has assumed room temperature.

[A rather obscure Bassoon 2,132]

I actually do respect the opinions of folks like you shaddow but I have a question. IF you were to see a war like I described would it have any effect on your thinking? That Psalm was recorded a couple thousand years ago and it stands a strengthening chance of being fulfilled in our lifetimes - in detail. But I have a feeling that even if it does, people who can't or don't believe will just blow it off and explain it away.

No,mainly due to the fact that over the centuries the region has seen a lot of conflict for whatever reason.No doubt there will be more in the future but that is down to political and religious divides.Maybe if i was a practicing Christian then i would most likely see it different,who knows?.

At the end of the day a mans religious views are his own and i do honestly respect that even though i may seem a bit intolerant at times.

Chances are there will be a regional conflict in the ME,at some point but this doesn't mean that Armageddon is upon us.

[joc 10,750]

The cease fire was authored by the President of Egypt, proud, card carrying member of The Muslim Brotherhood, which is a parent organization to Hamas.

The cease fire will not hold and imo Israel is making a mistake allowing this joker to author anything. All they are doing is buying time to build up a coalition to fight the ground forces that Israel is massing.

IMO Israel (as soon as Hamas breaks the cease fire) should roll tanks and ground troops into Gaza..take it back..tell the Palestinians to go to Hell...and be done with it. They gave them land and what do they do? Use it to fire rockets at Israel. It is patently ridiculous. If it were me...I would have obliterated Hamas a long, long time ago. But it isn't me.

The fact that Hamas has shot over 900 rockets into Israel since this conflict began is astonishing. Can you image anyone shooting 900 rockets into your country...and your government not responding with absolute overwhelming force? It's mind boggling. It really is.

[A rather obscure Bassoon 2,132]

This ceasefire is just a temporary lull before the big bang.

With his latest Machiavellian maneuvers Netanyahu is preparing the stage for his electoral win in January and his incessant campaign for war with Iran by summer 2013. Operation Pillar biggest success could be measured by how closely Hamas embraces its Arab brethren and begins to distance itself from Iran.

The recently accepted ceasefire brokered by Egypt’s Morsy with the support of the Arab League and Turkey has at least stopped the bloodshed for now. It certain that Israel will benefit if Egypt, Turkey and the AL nations can pull Hamas into their camp, and lure them away from Iran’s influence. It is no secret that the major powerbrokers in the AL (the Saudis and the Gulf Kingdoms) have no love for Iran.

If the AL manages to rein in Hamas, and if Assad is overthrown in Syria the only threat remaining to Israel on its border is Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Don’t be too surprise if Lebanon very soon starts unraveling in sectarian violence once again. To anyone with common sense it would appears that all of Iran’s proxies in the area are being neutralized. If true then Netanyahu’s Operation Pillar action may be just the first stage of a future greater war.

Blocked, checked, and mate! By way of deception, thou shall do war.

There is no denying that the Syrian Situation does complicate matters and Assads fate will be decided by the brewing trouble between Isreal and Iran.If Isreal decides to strike Iran after the Elections then i think there will be a response from Syria as well and then maybe Egypt may feel obliged to Join in as well.The changed political situation in the region has complicated matters a little.

[WHO U KIDDIN 338]

Your scenario makes sense except for the Syrian piece. The rebel groups can't even decide who will lead them. If the US or some Western entity were running them for their own purposes don't you think they'd work out a detail like that? As it is I suspect an element of the MB or maybe even Salafis will gain the upper hand if and when Assad has assumed room temperature.

That's right Then the rebels can't decide who will lead them because in truth there is no love between the different factions presently aligned against Assad. Unless the UN or the AL was to step in to keep the country united, a Syria without Assad would most probably dissolve into Sunni, Shia, and Christian cantons with the latter two being perhaps aligned since they are the minorities. My point then in my prior posting with Syria in such a dysfunctional state the threat that existed for Israel under a Syria ruled by Assad has been effectively neutralized.

[joc 10,750]

There is no denying that the Syrian Situation does complicate matters and Assads fate will be decided by the brewing trouble between Isreal and Iran.If Isreal decides to strike Iran after the Elections then i think there will be a response from Syria as well and then maybe Egypt may feel obliged to Join in as well.The changed political situation in the region has complicated matters a little.

The Syrian Situation and Iran are both moot points. They are scared to death that Israel is going to invade Gaza with ground forces...why? Two words.

Iron Dome.

[WHO U KIDDIN 338]

There is no denying that the Syrian Situation does complicate matters and Assads fate will be decided by the brewing trouble between Isreal and Iran.If Isreal decides to strike Iran after the Elections then i think there will be a response from Syria as well and then maybe Egypt may feel obliged to Join in as well.The changed political situation in the region has complicated matters a little.

Shaddow, even though Egypt, Turkey and the AL have all harshly criticized Israel for their recent action against Hamas, I can't see Morsy taking sides with Syria's Assad (an Alawi Shia) let along Iran against Israel (remember Morsy's is a Sunni and so are all his buddies: Turkey, the Saudis and Gulf Kingdoms which happen to be the main supporters of the Syrian rebels). The realpolitik is that a Shia versus Sunni clash is being orchestrated, a division in the Islamic world which again favors the Israeli, especially in their final goal of neutralizing Iran.

[Black Red Devil 2,397]

I seriously doubt that this is a "lasting" cease-fire, though I do certainly hope.

So, I wonder who will fire the first shot, or other territorial aggravation, to start this c**p all over again. My thought is Hamas. But it could be Israel.

Any thoughts? As nearly certainly this "peace" will not hold.

You're asking the wrong question. This conflict won't end with Israel invading Gaza and putting an end to Hamas, or because Hamas has thousands of rockets ready to shoot towards Israel and, as a consequence, they're finally going to pack up and leave. Nothing will change and both sides know it. So it really doesn't matter who will fire the first shot, what matters is what are they going to do after the last shot (every shot is obviously a concern for the civilian population but that's not what the OP is referring to).

Despite all the doomsayers predictions, Israel would have the world against them if they killed massive amount of civilians in Gaza, even if Hamas kept on firing rockets. Hamas will never win the propaganda war against Israel because they're resorting to the same violence as Israel is and their "brothers" in the West Bank aren't happy with their reaction. The Arab League is toothless and only looks after the interests of their rich sheiks so don't expect them to run to anyone's aid or get physically involved. Egypt and Syria have enough on their plate to worry about Gaza. Hezbolah is struggling to keep foot in Lebanon, in fact they've kept their noses right out of this. So there will be no outside intervention, third world war or Armageddon.

Therefore after the sufferance, death and anger it's back to the drawing board for these people. The normal average people....and Hamas.

But, there could be another twist to it. Israel's right wing Govt is not looking at the drawing board and their interests in this conflict may be going beyond a reaction to Hamas' rockets. Obviously all IMHO, but we all know Israel is looking for an excuse to get to Iran, who they consider a dangerous foe in the region and a rich one as well. Plenty of oil and gas, strategic position and a thorn in their side because they support and provide weapons to anti-Israeli groups such as Hamas (via Egypt and the MB) and Hezbolah.

How about this imaginery scenario in the next coming week(s). Israel rolls their tanks and ground troops into Gaza, confiscates a nutritious amount of weapons "made in iran", retreats soon after to avoid as many civilian victims as possible, displays their trophy's to the world. Subsequent condemnation from the US and EU for supporting "terrorism", Support for Hamas wanes, the treatment, discrimination and occupation of Gaza by the Israeli's becomes a secondary issue, Russia's support and position as an ally of Iran is forced to weaken. Israeli war drums against Iran start beating louder and quicker than ever before.....

The bets are on.

Edited November 23, 2012 by BlackRedLittleDevil

[buckskin scout 1,053]

The cease fire was authored by the President of Egypt, proud, card carrying member of The Muslim Brotherhood, which is a parent organization to Hamas.

The cease fire will not hold and imo Israel is making a mistake allowing this joker to author anything. All they are doing is buying time to build up a coalition to fight the ground forces that Israel is massing.

IMO Israel (as soon as Hamas breaks the cease fire) should roll tanks and ground troops into Gaza..take it back..tell the Palestinians to go to Hell...and be done with it. They gave them land and what do they do? Use it to fire rockets at Israel. It is patently ridiculous. If it were me...I would have obliterated Hamas a long, long time ago. But it isn't me.

The fact that Hamas has shot over 900 rockets into Israel since this conflict began is astonishing. Can you image anyone shooting 900 rockets into your country...and your government not responding with absolute overwhelming force? It's mind boggling. It really is.

Equally mind boggling is the rockets and white phosphorous Israel has rained down on Gaza and your government is powerless to respond to it or defend against it because it has no standing army, no armour corps, and no warplanes. It's mind boggling. It really is.

[Black Red Devil 2,397]

The cease fire was authored by the President of Egypt, proud, card carrying member of The Muslim Brotherhood, which is a parent organization to Hamas.

The cease fire will not hold and imo Israel is making a mistake allowing this joker to author anything. All they are doing is buying time to build up a coalition to fight the ground forces that Israel is massing.

IMO Israel (as soon as Hamas breaks the cease fire) should roll tanks and ground troops into Gaza..take it back..tell the Palestinians to go to Hell...and be done with it. They gave them land and what do they do? Use it to fire rockets at Israel. It is patently ridiculous. If it were me...I would have obliterated Hamas a long, long time ago. But it isn't me.

The fact that Hamas has shot over 900 rockets into Israel since this conflict began is astonishing. Can you image anyone shooting 900 rockets into your country...and your government not responding with absolute overwhelming force? It's mind boggling. It really is.

Can you also imagine being blockaded and basically imprisoned in your own country by an outside force which forces you into poverty because it limits your progress and development as a nation? How many rockets would you like to fire against that country?

[buckskin scout 1,053]

Can you also imagine being blockaded and basically imprisoned in your own country by an outside force which forces you into poverty because it limits your progress and development as a nation? How many rockets would you like to fire against that country?

And your sole airstrip is shut down and condemned for years... lies derelict with years of neglect. Your sole airport has ceased to existance entirely. The Gazans have no access outside either by land, sea, or air.