Global warming at a standstill

[Little Fish]

According to NOAA, the US just had it's hottest, dryest year ever. Of course, that doesn't count three worse droughts we know about from the tree-ring record.

Doug

the US is not the world, it is only 5% of the surface of the world so is not a measure of global conditions by any means, china has just had a very cold spell. The AMO cycle is ~70 years and we're at the peak of it. eyebrows would be raised if the USA wasn't experiencing what you mention given the 1930s were just as hot in the US.

[Little Fish]

More drought + More floods = No change in average precipitation

Br Cornelius

the ipcc ar5 report doesn't share your opinions about "more droughts" and "more floods". we've been been over this.

http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=240752&st=15#entry4614484

Edited January 10, 2013 by Little Fish

[Little Fish]

The arguer is a hack and I am expected to waste 40 minuits of my life proving that point.

I based my argument on scientific papers - Little Fish produced an amateur blogger - need I say more.

you picked a few articles on a limited number of regions to show those regions were wetter, that's cherry picking. I showed you the global data which shows there has been a decline in precipitation since 1979. you attack tisdale, but the data is from noaa.

[Little Fish]

What does Al "Jazeera" Gore have to say on the subject today?

he says you need to buy carbon credits, he owns the carbon credit company with goldman sachs (Blood and Gore plc) which issues the credits, so he says you should pay him money. Edited January 10, 2013 by Little Fish

[keithisco]

Every time i hear people yell the sky is falling over climate change it makes me cringe.

All data used to show how we are on the verge of death and destruction ends up being data mined from the past 200 years and you know what it shows?

Yep, its warming.

But what happens if we look back 1000 years? You know, maybe check and see if warming and cooling doesn't just happen in cycles naturally?

Wow, what do you know, we aren't even at the Medieval Warming high point yet.

Forgive me if i ignore things that i cant change while others use fear mongering to make a buck i.e Al "Jazeera" Gore.

http://www.c3headlin...atures-unusual/

You keep making totally wrong statements Capt "Haliburton" Amerika!!:

"Despite substantial uncertainties, especially for the period prior to 1600 when data are scarce, the warmest period of the last 2,000 years prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100, but temperatures were probably between 0.1 °C and 0.2 °C below the 1961 to 1990 mean and significantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980.

The heterogeneous nature of climate during the Medieval Warm Period is illustrated by the wide spread of values exhibited by the individual records.Warmth in some regions appears to have matched or exceeded recent levels of warmth in these regions, but globally the Medieval Warm Period was cooler than recent global temperatures."

Edited January 10, 2013 by keithisco

[Wickian]

I don't put much stock in "tipping points". We've been told for the last 30 years that we're "less than 10 years from the tipping point". It kind of loses it's credibility when things like that happen.

[Guest]

you picked a few articles on a limited number of regions to show those regions were wetter, that's cherry picking. I showed you the global data which shows there has been a decline in precipitation since 1979. you attack tisdale, but the data is from noaa.

There is a neat little graph which shows the same trends across all regions - do you want me to find it for you.

Here's a thought experiment for you - do you think the average rainfall for America is very useful in predicting the average rainfall in New Mexico ?

When you show some understanding of how stats actually works get back to me and we can discuss what trend actually mean.

Br Cornelius

What does Al "Jazeera" Gore have to say on the subject today?

Why should the opinion of a politician matter when discussing science ?

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

Why should the opinion of a politician matter when discussing science ?

when did you ever discuss science?

[Guest]

when did you ever discuss science?

You never seem to bring any science up Little Fish.

Getting techy in your old age

Br Cornelius

[Guest]

SUMMIT COUNTY — Parts of the U.S. have seen clear statistical trends more extreme precipitation events in the past few decades, according to a new paper from the

American Meteorological Society

based on extensive research from federal and state agencies, as well as academic sources.

Increased water vapor in the atmosphere, as outlined by many climate change models, may be one of the key factors in the the observed changes, according to the researchers, who said that weren’t able to measure statistically significant changes in severe thunderstorms.

But for extreme precipitation, “there is strong evidence for a nationally-averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events,” the paper concludes. About 76 percent of all stations reported increases in extreme precipitation.

The analysis also found the number of severe regional snowstorms since 1960 “was more than twice that of the preceding 60 years.”

While the study identified a high degree of geographic variability, they found that all regions of the U.S. have experienced a greater than normal occurrence of extreme events since 1991. “The increase is statistically significant for the U.S. as a whole and the individual regions of the Midwest and Southeast,” according to the report.

The upward trend for the 1957-2010 period is especially apparent in the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, while the study found no significant extreme precipitation trends in the western U.S.

The report acknowledges the challenges of linking changes in extreme precipitation with global warming, but nevertheless references several papers that suggest a connection to human-caused changes in atmospheric composition — for example a paper showing that, “for the same annual or seasonal precipitation totals, warmer climates generate more extreme precipitation events compared to cooler climates.”

Here’s how the paper explains the possible links:

“This is consistent with water vapor being a critical limiting factor for the most extreme precipitation events. A number of analyses have documented significant positive trends in water vapor concentration and have linked these trends to human fingerprints in both changes of surface and atmospheric moisture.”

Several papers also document an upward trend in the number of extreme precipitation events in the vicinity of fronts associated with extra-tropical cyclones, but no evidence yet to show if there’s been an increase in the number and intensity of those fronts.

Overall, there appears to be compelling evidence that increased water vapor is a primary cause of extreme precipitation events, other factors, including changes in the characteristics of weather systems, changes in La Niña-El Niño patterns and even changes in land-use and irrigation patterns, including increased irrigation in the Great Plains.

http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/08/11/climate-extreme-rainfall-events-increasingly-common/

How many papers reporting increasing trends in extreme precipitation and general precipitation would it take before you accepted it as more than cherry picking ?

Br Cornelius

[Guest]

Annual layer analysis in two stalagmites collected from Spring Valley Caverns, southeastern Minnesota,

reveals hydrological response of the cave to extreme rainfall events in the Midwest, USA. Cave-flooding events

are identified within the two samples by the presence of detrital layers composed of clay sized particles.

Comparison with instrumental records of precipitation demonstrates a strong correlation between these

cave-flood events and extreme rainfall observed in the Upper Mississippi Valley. A simple model is developed

to assess the nature of rainfall capable of flooding the cave. The model is first calibrated to the last 50-yr

(1950–1998 A.D.) instrumental record of daily precipitation data for the town of Spring Valley and verified

with the first 50 yr of record from 1900 to 1949 A.D. Frequency analysis shows that these extreme flood events

have increased from the last half of the nineteenth century. Comparison with other paleohydrological records

shows increased occurrence of extreme rain events during periods of higher moisture availability. Our study

implies that increased moisture availability in the Midwestern region, due to rise in temperature from global

warming could lead to an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=global+extreme+precipitation+events&source=web&cd=11&ved=0CC4QFjAAOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geo.umn.edu%2Forgs%2Fgeofluids%2Fpubs%2FDasguptaSaarEdwardsShenChengAlexander_EPSL_2010.pdf&ei=2wPvULTlK4mYhQfv5YDYBQ&usg=AFQjCNH9kq-TuMlaYT6dMqnS4WUtKhYQqg&bvm=bv.1357700187,d.ZG4

Is this getting as boring for everyone else as it is for me ?

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

I wish they would make up their minds about this global warming stuff.

'Climate change' is happening, 'global warming' is a misnomer.

[Guest]

Variety is the spice of life - how about india for a change;

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/314/5804/1442.abstract

Br Cornelius

[Guest]

'Climate change' is happening, 'global warming' is a misnomer.

Not really, climate is changing in response to global warming. The two happen in lock step and cannot be divided.

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

Not really, climate is changing in response to global warming. The two happen in lock step and cannot be divided.

Br Cornelius

Then you have the theorists saying that once the caps melt the Gulf Stream will 'shut down' this bringing us into some sort of another 'ice age'. I prefer 'climate change' to 'global warming' cause I always get irritated when my dad says 'well, it's too cold for global warming to be real'. -facepalm-

[Guest]

China anyone;

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains (above 25mm/day) in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving

t

test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978–1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country's average.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1674-1056/17/2/062;jsessionid=BC3D75E20C75F1510D3B0CCF4668005E.c3

Got anything more than that one graph Little Fish ??

Br Cornelius

[Guest]

Then you have the theorists saying that once the caps melt the Gulf Stream will 'shut down' this bringing us into some sort of another 'ice age'. I prefer 'climate change' to 'global warming' cause I always get irritated when my dad says 'well, it's too cold for global warming to be real'. -facepalm-

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.

Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.

Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

Thank ya BR. I need to delve into the links you've provided more once I have the time, seems I'm working off old data.

[Guest]

Australia and south east asia, less rainy days, but more extreme precipitation events;

Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the

South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data

from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm

nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme

temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially

coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased

significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of

French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events

has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not

significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the

wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological

Society.

The Austrialian Government thinks there has been an increase in extreme weather events;

Precipitation extremes showed a widespread and significant

increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent

compared with temperature change.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=australian+extreme+precipitation+events&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CGAQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatechange.gov.au%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fpublications%2Fscience%2Fweather-extremes.pdf&ei=XwfvUN_GIcm4hAeMrIHwAg&usg=AFQjCNGMBNn6Mjmfx_meIyge_APkjDHlzg

You know what - there's an easier way to find out if extreme weather events have increased - go ask your granny

How do you find denying the evidence of your own senses ?

Br Cornelius

[Guest]

Misuse of Means,medians and modes is one of the first thing which will get you a fail in any basic stats course.

Shame on you Little Fish

Br Cornelius

[Leah G.]

Hi There, this is Granny.... Here is what I've noticed... Better news coverage and more people all over the world saying the sky is falling. Not much on the weather though, we still have it.

[Guest]

Hi There, this is Granny.... Here is what I've noticed... Better news coverage and more people all over the world saying the sky is falling. Not much on the weather though, we still have it.

Sorry but the evidence disputes that position.

Br Cornelius

[AsteroidX]

What if Climate change and Global warming were happening concurrently.

[Hasina]

What if Climate change and Global warming were happening concurrently.

BR actually did say that, lol.

[keithisco]

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.

Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

Shutdown is unlikely, but between 1954 and 2004 the VOLUME of the flow reduced by 30%. Western Europe is dependent on the NAD to maintain temperatures in the Temperate zone. It also has an effect on the Jetstream in the atmosphere, leading to some some very extreme climatic variations, as witnessed last year in Northern Europe