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jjblondee

The book 'Missing 411-by David Paulides'

72 posts in this topic

On 7/11/2017 at 6:37 AM, ChrLzs said:

How many should there be, exactly?  This is the same logical fallacy that is used to justify that we must be being visited by aliens.  But the no of stories simple reflects people's ability and desire to storytell, added to what actually happens from 'normal' disappearances, added to our cultural myths and legends..  Paulides is heavily involved in Bigfoot promotion, so he will have a natural bias to try to find anything that seemed odd.

As a start, since they began recording people going missing in the huge number of national parks in the Americas in the late 1800's, there are hundreds of thousands of disappearances.  Can you quote where Paulides refers to base-line figures to compare to his chosen 411?  Or where he draws a line to determine what should be termed 'mysterious'?  Does he compare the rate of 'mysteriousness' to non-national-park missing persons?

Cherry picking stories is not a good way to get at the truth.

And what do you think he's suggesting - it is that Bigfeet are doing this?  or something else?

Did you read 2-B's excellent post (# 17 on page 1)?   It addresses this claim of cherry picking (towards the end of the post).

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2 hours ago, sees said:

Did you read 2-B's excellent post (# 17 on page 1)?   It addresses this claim of cherry picking (towards the end of the post).

In that post he stated:

Quote

Last, while cherry-picking in theory damages an argument, this reviewer fails to explain how Paulides and his researchers can be cherry-picking when their goal has been to collect data on ALL the disappearances in national park areas that cannot be explained by animal attacks, drownings, mere wandering off of children or elderly, typical outdoor injuries leading to death, etc.

Please explain how the heck you can rule out, for example, animal attacks or drownings given these are disappearances.  Ie there is no body to examine to determine the cause.

Just handwaving it away as an issue shows that either
- you haven't read any/much of the book nor examined at least some of the cases in detail
- don't understand what cherry-picking means, and how a genuine researcher will not only avoid it, but will also declare exactly how s/he avoided it...

The thing is, Paulides simply declared cases 'odd' for the most trivial of reasons.  So if you would like to argue that cherry-picking does not apply, please point out the part in Paulides where he discusses how/where he 'drew the line'.  You will be struggling to find the criteria he used for counting in any given case.. in fact you will find that pretty much anything was used, eg (and no I'm not kidding..):
- that tracking dogs could not seem to find a scent trail...
- that two people had short christian names starting with A...
- that a few disappearances were 'odd' because the persons were last seen near berry bushes... 

Yes, I'm afraid it really is that bad.

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Some of the stories Paulides leave out or changes the details. In Bart Schleyer case Paulides claims animal faeces contained no human material, but from articles I've read Schleyer's remains were found in bear faeces. Dennis Martin is another that sounds like a kidnapping that Paulides tries to make sound mysterious.

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After listening to some of his interviews I heard David Paulides rejects the mountain lion explanation because attacks are so rare, yet when they do attack they have been known drag off adults. Anyone else noticing the irony here? Paulides is spinning these stories as paranormal BUT rejects something that we know occurs because it's too rare. This makes me think his isn't genuinely after answers.

I believe some of the cases (not all) can be explained by mountain lions, they stalk silently and attempt to kill their prey quickly, someone may not even have time to scream. I just found it funny the excuse Paulides gave for rejecting this explanation.

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Posted (edited)

On 7/21/2017 at 0:50 PM, Rlyeh said:

After listening to some of his interviews I heard David Paulides rejects the mountain lion explanation because attacks are so rare, yet when they do attack they have been known drag off adults. Anyone else noticing the irony here?

I think you're working a little too hard here. Yes Mt. Lion Attacks are rare, but when they do attack there is evidence of said attack, like blood, tissue and marks in the ground from the aforementioned dragging off of its victims. That is why the mt. lion theory is dismissed in many of these cases, the evidence just isnt there. 

At least thats what Ive taken from his presentations. 

I do think some of the cases have possibly more mundane explanations, especially the ones involving young children for instance as an eagle can pick up somewhere around 30lbs.  

Edited by Farmer77
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2 hours ago, Farmer77 said:

I think you're working a little too hard here. Yes Mt. Lion Attacks are rare, but when they do attack there is evidence of said attack, like blood, tissue and marks in the ground from the aforementioned dragging off of its victims. That is why the mt. lion theory is dismissed in many of these cases, the evidence just isnt there. 

At least thats what Ive taken from his presentations. 

I do think some of the cases have possibly more mundane explanations, especially the ones involving young children for instance as an eagle can pick up somewhere around 30lbs.  

That's why I said only some cases could be explained by mountain lions, I don't think blood would necessarily be present if the lion took them by surprise breaking the neck. But Paulides excuse "they're too rare" is good coming from someone who is selling bigfoot.

Some of them is truly strange however assuming he isn't leaving out details.

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Posted (edited)

On 7/23/2017 at 5:55 PM, Farmer77 said:

I think you're working a little too hard here.

And you're not working hard enough.. :)

Quote

Yes Mt. Lion Attacks are rare, but when they do attack there is evidence of said attack, like blood, tissue and marks in the ground from the aforementioned dragging off of its victims.

But that only applies if you know where the attack took place!!!  How often do you think that happens? Usually (ok, I'm guessing here..) I'd wager that such an attack will not happen if there are two(or+) people.  I'd also wager that such attacks don't usually happen at a campsite...

Quote

That is why the mt. lion theory is dismissed in many of these cases, the evidence just isnt there. At least thats what Ive taken from his presentations. 

There's your problem.  He's selling books and seminars so of course his presentations will tell you that.

 

If you are genuine about extracting info from statistics, you MUST declare your criteria and justify it.  He doesn't.  So his 'info' is worthless.  In fact , imo, worse than useless as it is tainted by a monetary interest.

 

Edited by ChrLzs

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Well, guess what I received for my birthday?....the entire set of books authored by Mr. Paulides.  I'm so happy.

 

updates to follow.

Edited by Maureen_jacobs
Forgot to add updates to follow
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3 hours ago, Maureen_jacobs said:

Well, guess what I received for my birthday?....the entire set of books authored by Mr. Paulides.  I'm so happy.

 

updates to follow.

what a great gift ! 
look forward to updates 

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Hello to everyone.....

I became interested in the 'Missing 411' theme a year ago and read online material  and watched some you tube presentations...but none of his actual books.

It does appear he wants to use the 'supernatural'  (bigfoot?...dimensional rifts..?) to account for some of the 'odd' disappearances but as already pointed out by  several posters here there simply isn't any evidence to support this...so until that time the best answer remains natural accidents including animal attacks. The only other explanation that might work for me are serial killers who have specialized in using Parks as their hunting grounds. Has anyone investigated this idea?

Edited by doctor wu

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Started with the Eastern US book.  Still trudging along.  Right now, he is presenting certain types of folks that were missing.

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^^Does he mention the idea of serial killers who use parks as a 'hunting ground'..?

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I've always been interesting in missing persons in the woods cases (as someone who spends a lot of my free time in the forests/mountains). Many (most) missing persons cases (where the person is never found) I can usually come up with a somewhat reasonable hypothesis of what happened.

 

Heck, lots of people go missing in the mountains near where I live and are never found. But most of the time it's fairly easy to (reasonably) guess what happened and why the bodies are never found. The terrain in my area (coastal BC) is very rugged, very steep, and very densely wooded. You can be five steps from a well used trail and never see it. It can take you a whole day to travel two or three kilometres as a crow flies in one direction (if you can even go in that direction). And the weather changes on a dime here in the colder months. I always go out well prepared and try not to take too many chances (especially when solo hiking, exploring, camping, etc).

That being said, some of the cases mentioned in His interviews (and that i've subsequently googled) are kinda bizarre. Especially how the parks board seems to be stalling his every move, lying, etc. Though it's probably nothing more than bad publicity they are trying to avoid (and lawsuits, etc).

All that being said, a small fraction of these cases deserve a more in-depth look.

Personally, I hope I can find his books at a good cost (or the library soon). I look forwards to reading them (and how he tries not to give theories as to why the people went missing, etc). 

Have a good day. Cheers.

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12 hours ago, Bavarian Raven said:

I've always been interesting in missing persons in the woods cases (as someone who spends a lot of my free time in the forests/mountains). Many (most) missing persons cases (where the person is never found) I can usually come up with a somewhat reasonable hypothesis of what happened.

 

Heck, lots of people go missing in the mountains near where I live and are never found. But most of the time it's fairly easy to (reasonably) guess what happened and why the bodies are never found. The terrain in my area (coastal BC) is very rugged, very steep, and very densely wooded. You can be five steps from a well used trail and never see it. It can take you a whole day to travel two or three kilometres as a crow flies in one direction (if you can even go in that direction). And the weather changes on a dime here in the colder months. I always go out well prepared and try not to take too many chances (especially when solo hiking, exploring, camping, etc).

That being said, some of the cases mentioned in His interviews (and that i've subsequently googled) are kinda bizarre. Especially how the parks board seems to be stalling his every move, lying, etc. Though it's probably nothing more than bad publicity they are trying to avoid (and lawsuits, etc).

All that being said, a small fraction of these cases deserve a more in-depth look.

Personally, I hope I can find his books at a good cost (or the library soon). I look forwards to reading them (and how he tries not to give theories as to why the people went missing, etc). 

Have a good day. Cheers.

I have only read articles online and watched a few you tube videos (and a podcast) by him but it is indeed an interesting subject. I don't think ufos and bigfoot are abducting people in parks but some of the cases are pretty strange when you look into them. I suspect it's accidents and possibly a handful of predators (serial killers...?) that accounts for the cases.

At any rate there is a sister thread here on the board    

 

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A relatively short interview detailing the main gist of his work....

 

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5 hours ago, doctor wu said:

I have only read articles online and watched a few you tube videos (and a podcast) by him but it is indeed an interesting subject. I don't think ufos and bigfoot are abducting people in parks but some of the cases are pretty strange when you look into them. I suspect it's accidents and possibly a handful of predators (serial killers...?) that accounts for the cases.

At any rate there is a sister thread here on the board    

 

Ya... nothing paranormal IMHO ... just bad luck and probably a few psychos (and maybe people getting abducted by the gov for sinister purposes - jk). 

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6 hours ago, Bavarian Raven said:

Ya... nothing paranormal IMHO ... just bad luck and probably a few psychos (and maybe people getting abducted by the gov for sinister purposes - jk). 

The govt...? Can you elaborate on that...? What sinister purposes..?

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8 hours ago, doctor wu said:

The govt...? Can you elaborate on that...? What sinister purposes..?

That was sarcasm/a joke. Though it wouldn't surprise me, I doubt they are behind it. The only reason I made that joke is because it wouldn't be the first time the gov has used its citizens as human guinie pigs. 

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4 hours ago, Bavarian Raven said:

That was sarcasm/a joke. Though it wouldn't surprise me, I doubt they are behind it. The only reason I made that joke is because it wouldn't be the first time the gov has used its citizens as human guinie pigs. 

LOL.....fair enough.

Even though I find the whole Missing 411 thing interesting ( a few of the cases are truly bizarre in some ways.),  I can't see anything supernatural behind it. People go missing all the time for various accidental reasons and in deep and rugged places it no doubt happens on a regular basis.....in other words ****e happens.

What bothers me  a little is that Paulides .while acknowledging this. seems to still want to imply that 'something else' is going on but he won't commit to an opinion on what the 'something else' might be. His reticence on this leads some people to think he's referring to things like aliens, Bigfoot, or supernatural events.

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"Beware: Do Not Read This Poem"

Ishmael Reed

 

tonite  ,    thriller was
abt an ol woman  ,  so vain she
surrounded herself w/
      many mirrors

it got so bad that finally she
locked herself indoors & her
whole life became the
       mirrors

one day the villagers broke
into her house  ,  but she was too
swift for them  .  she disappeared
        into a mirror

each tenant who bought the house
after that  ,    lost a loved one to
      the ol woman in the mirror
      first a little girl
      then a young woman
      then the young woman/s husband

the hunger of this poem is legendary
it has taken in many victims
back off from this poem
it has drawn in yr feet
back off from this poem
it has drawn in yr legs
back off from this poem
it is a greedy mirror
you are into this poem  .   from
      the waist down
nobody can hear you can they  ?
this poem has had you up to here

      belch

this poem aint got no manners
you cant call out frm this poem
relax now & go w/ this poem
move & roll on to this poem
do not resist this poem
this poem has yr eyes
this poem has his head
this poem has his arms
this poem has his fingers
this poem has his fingertips

this poem is the reader & the reader this poem

statistic  :  the us bureau of missing persons report
            that in 1968 over 100,000 people disappeared
            leaving no solid clues
                nor trace only
      a space            in the lives of their friends

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I started out interested by this topic. However, when he or he recounted a story though, I totally disregard him now. He went on C2C and recounted a "report" that someone encountered essentially the Predator alien in full camouflage.

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