The fracking bubble is about to burst

[Br Cornelius 5,908]

This article clearly lays out what I learnt from a few weeks of research into fracking, we are sitting on a bubble as significant as the housing crash which knocked us into a world recession;

http://www.voltairenet.org/article177874.html

Will you be caught in the fallout when the ponzi scheme collapses ?

Br Cornelius

[questionmark 11,361]

You mean that fracking so far has not earned a penny? well, how shocking..... if was lucrative to get that gas out of the ground they would have done it 50 years ago with the same stone age technology they are using now.

It was not lucrative then and it will not be 100 years down the road... it was just a brave new way for big oil and big coal to cash in a few more subsidies.

[Br Cornelius 5,908]

Ponzi !!!!

Ask yourself. are you the mark ?

Who will pick up the bill when the whole **** heap comes crashing down ? Past experience suggests that the losses will be nationalized.

Br Cornelius

Edited June 12, 2013 by Br Cornelius

[questionmark 11,361]

Ponzi !!!!

Ask yourself. are you the mark ?

Who will pick up the bill when the whole **** heap comes crashing down ? Past experience suggests that the losses will be nationalized.

Br Cornelius

Don't worry none, your tax dollars will keep 'em rich....

[Doug1o29 4,285]

This article clearly lays out what I learnt from a few weeks of research into fracking, we are sitting on a bubble as significant as the housing crash which knocked us into a world recession;

http://www.voltairen...icle177874.html

Will you be caught in the fallout when the ponzi scheme collapses ?

Br Cornelius

However that may be, they're still fracking wells around here. If fracking doesn't work, it will be gone before the public hears anything about it.

The Baaken burns off a huge amount of natural gas because they don't have pipelines to get it to market.

I don't think we can bury the US oil and gas boom just yet.

Doug

While we're citing stuff, can't you come up with some actual research on the subject?

Doug

Edited June 12, 2013 by Doug1o29

[Br Cornelius 5,908]

However that may be, they're still fracking wells around here. If fracking doesn't work, it will be gone before the public hears anything about it.

The Baaken burns off a huge amount of natural gas because they don't have pipelines to get it to market.

I don't think we can bury the US oil and gas boom just yet.

Doug

While we're citing stuff, can't you come up with some actual research on the subject?

Doug

The whole field is so shifty (with various Government complicity in not digging to deep) that there is almost nothing but analysis. The analysis in this article seems based on sound principles (ie short production cycles with high repeated capital investment, along with the dubious election of total reserves as the metric) and the numerous leaks from within the petroleum analysis industry and the financial industry that support exactly what has been written. the fact that one of the main operators is almost bankrupt should give us all pause for thought - with revenues in 2012 of $33billion against costs of $42Billion - not sustainable. This is a financial story more than anything else and has to be looked at in that way to understand what is coming down the tracks.

The first most of the public will know of this is when its reported on the morning news when the stock market plunges new lows based upon a major player going to the wall.

Br Cornelius

Edited June 12, 2013 by Br Cornelius

[Doug1o29 4,285]

the fact that one of the main operators is almost bankrupt should give us all pause for thought - with revenues in 2012 of $33billion against costs of $42Billion - not sustainable.

If you want to cash in on a boom, you have to drill (and frack) wells. That's expensive. When you have spent all available cash, you have to sell something or borrow funds to keep going. It's well known that Chesapeake is in trouble - they invested too heavily in gas when they should have been in oil. They donated a million dollars to tornado relief - people are asking who they borrowed it from.

Anyway, as long as they're drilling shale, we're going to have fracking. I wouldn't start cheering just yet.

Doug

[Br Cornelius 5,908]

No one will be cheering when this one blows up.

Br Cornelius

[Myles 11,761]

I also think some of the reason for the low natural gas prices is the clash with coal. Since the price drop (along with new MACT standards for coal), a large number of plants have gone from burning coal to burning gas. Heck, the place I work for used to burn 700 ton of coal per week. We now rent a gas boiler for $35,000 a month and are still saving a million $$ a year. We are small compared to power plants and other industries. We process soybeans and make cooking oil.

[Rafterman 6,513]

From wiki: "The Voltaire Network is made up of news agencies and newspapers from Latin America, Europe and the Arab World"

Can't imagine why that group would support an article that calls into question the idea of US energy independence.

And on top of it, the piece is written by a guy who has spent his entire career attacking the oil industry - particularly the US oil industry. He's also a global warming denier - that generally discredits folks around here right?

I was impressed, though, that he waited until about 1/3 of the way to mention Dick Cheney and Halliburton. Oh, and can we all agree that the whole "burning water" thing from Gasland is bull****.

[Myles 11,761]

Fracking is a hazard to the enviroment, there is no doubt about that. The amount of water and chemicals pumped in and out of the operations is amazing. Nasty stuff comes out and needs cleaned.

I'm on the fence. I love the affordable gas but I wouldn't want a fracking operation near me (unless it was my land).

[Br Cornelius 5,908]

From wiki: "The Voltaire Network is made up of news agencies and newspapers from Latin America, Europe and the Arab World"

Can't imagine why that group would support an article that calls into question the idea of US energy independence.

And on top of it, the piece is written by a guy who has spent his entire career attacking the oil industry - particularly the US oil industry. He's also a global warming denier - that generally discredits folks around here right?

I was impressed, though, that he waited until about 1/3 of the way to mention Dick Cheney and Halliburton. Oh, and can we all agree that the whole "burning water" thing from Gasland is bull****.

No we can't

Everything in the articles has been discussed by oil analysis’s many times before - this article simply represents a nice summery. Fracking has dubious economics backing it with far to much capital investment to make it cost competitive. There is still plenty of cheaper conventional gas in production for unconventional gas to make economic sense. Energy independence at what cost?

Br Cornelius

Edited June 13, 2013 by Br Cornelius

[questionmark 11,361]

Fracking is a hazard to the enviroment, there is no doubt about that. The amount of water and chemicals pumped in and out of the operations is amazing. Nasty stuff comes out and needs cleaned.

I'm on the fence. I love the affordable gas but I wouldn't want a fracking operation near me (unless it was my land).

I will certainly not allow any fracking on my land.

[Myles 11,761]

I will certainly not allow any fracking on my land.

I only said it because I'm sure you are compinsated very well and would want to move away.

[questionmark 11,361]

I only said it because I'm sure you are compinsated very well and would want to move away.

Well, I consider myself the guardian of my land for further generations... not as its owner.

[Frank Merton 17,408]

It actually begins to look like there may be viable deposits of oil and gas in Vietnam. You better believe whatever is there will be developed. We need it.

[Doug1o29 4,285]

I will certainly not allow any fracking on my land.

I have noticed that most "green" landowners suddenly become very pro-fracking when you waive those big royalty checks under their noses.

Several years ago a Regional Vice-President of the Sierra Club sold off 40 acres to timber in one of the worst logging jobs I know of. Environmental ethics has a H-uv-a-time competing with $$$$$.

Doug

[questionmark 11,361]

I have noticed that most "green" landowners suddenly become very pro-fracking when you waive those big royalty checks under their noses.

Several years ago a Regional Vice-President of the Sierra Club sold off 40 acres to timber in one of the worst logging jobs I know of. Environmental ethics has a H-uv-a-time competing with $$$$$.

Doug

Got enough money, and surely cannot take any with me when I croak. When I am against something I don't change my mind for a sack of gold.

[Doug1o29 4,285]

Got enough money, and surely cannot take any with me when I croak. When I am against something I don't change my mind for a sack of gold.

That's what they all say.

Doug

[Rafterman 6,513]

No we can't

Everything in the articles has been discussed by oil analysis’s many times before - this article simply represents a nice summery. Fracking has dubious economics backing it with far to much capital investment to make it cost competitive. There is still plenty of cheaper conventional gas in production for unconventional gas to make economic sense. Energy independence at what cost?

Br Cornelius

Let me rephrase. Can we all agree that the burning water because of fracking in Gasland in bull****?

And while you may agree with your second paragraph, the source completely discredits it in my opinion.

[keithisco 4,581]

That's what they all say.

Doug

Thats what we all say. No Fracking on my land either. Poison the aquifers in another way (already being done) but Fracking is being used to kill off the alternative energy market. Do I give a rats a***, yes I do. I own nothing, I am just holding my land for future generations. I want to leave it in good stead.!!!

My land produces real Commodities, nothing short lived in the Orchards and Groves. I am totally with questionmark on this, I have enough money in the bank, I have a life that I enjoy and I really do not yearn for anything more. No Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Porsche in the garage, no Pollocks hanging in the Living Room, no Rolex watches... but comfortable, and know that my daughter will be well cared for should I snuff out the flame anytime soon.

What more is there??? Seriously

Edited June 18, 2013 by keithisco

[Frank Merton 17,408]

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs. Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years. Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way. These claims strike me as politics, not reality.

[questionmark 11,361]

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs. Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years. Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way. These claims strike me as politics, not reality.

Yes they would, but sometimes the principle you stand for is more important than the money or the fact that they will get it their way anyway. Makes you have less problems shaving 'cause you can still look at yourself in the mirror.

[keithisco 4,581]

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs. Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years. Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way. These claims strike me as politics, not reality.

Do not lay the blame at the feet of Democrats... Cheney is into this up to his neck!! Fracked gas (not oil) runs out exponentially, not in an X=Y way, but like a Lithium Battery - one minute it is there, the next minute you have nothing.

20 years of gas production is the most likely scenario, if you have nothing in backup then you are screwed (apologies for the use of the vernacular).

[Doug1o29 4,285]

Thats what we all say. No Fracking on my land either. Poison the aquifers in another way (already being done) but Fracking is being used to kill off the alternative energy market. Do I give a rats a***, yes I do. I own nothing, I am just holding my land for future generations. I want to leave it in good stead.!!!

My land produces real Commodities, nothing short lived in the Orchards and Groves.

I checked out the premise of this thread (That fracking is about to die of natural [economic] causes) with a production geologist. Her reaction: "That's news to me." Her team has just developed a new technique for high-pressure drilling, cutting drilling time (and cost) in half. The technique is an industrial secret, but I guess I just let the high-pressure part of it out of the bag.

Anyway, I'm still having trouble seeing what the danger from fracking is. Drilling mud, especially oil-based mud is more toxic than fracking fluids. I think the public is mislead by the term "mud." Sounds like something you scooped up from the haul road, not a mix of chemicals, clays, sands, etc. etc. But fracking fluid is mostly water and sand. The producing strata are two MILES underground, a long way from ground water, and the casing is sealed. It's made of concrete and bonds to the rock.

So how often does the casing fail? There are a quarter of a million wells in Oklahoma and as far as I know, only one has failed. That one was an abandoned arsenic well that was cleaned up and re-sealed by the Corporation Commission in less than a week from the day it was reported.

Why is there so much trouble in Pennsylvania and Ohio? Oklahoma has had oil and gas drilling for over a hundred years, now. We have put in the rules and regs needed to safeguard the public. Ohio and Pennsylvania have not. That simple.

Most companies are responsible citizens and just tell their drillers to abide by Oklahoma standards. But a few aren't and don't take adequate safeguards. Those few need regulation. So put in the regulations and quit crying about it.

What is the major pollutant coming out of oil/gas wells? Good old table salt. That is a serious problem if you're a plant, or the salt water gets into a stream. Ever tried to clean up a salt spill? Compared to that, oil is a piece of cake: the oil soaks into the duff and soil and stays near the top of the profile where it is easy to get at. Salt, on the other hand, quickly settles to great depths, then travels with the ground water.

BTW: Day before yesterday we had a derrickman fall from a rig and get killed. Nobody knows why his safety harness wasn't hooked in. That's the only drilling-related fatality I know of in the last couple years. We had a rig blow up about two years ago, but nobody was hurt. So how many fracking fatalities do you know of during that same time span?

Now that I've said all that: natural gas contains carbon. It's 75% carbon by weight. Burning it pollutes the atmosphere, whether the oil and gas folks like to think so, or not. It is not as clean as the commercials would like you to think. We have to phase it out for the health and safety of ourselves and our planet. Switching to gas as an intermediate step makes no sense when we have the technology to switch directly to wind and do it cheaper than using oil and at a rate competitive with gas.

So while the anti-fracking thing seems to me to be mostly hype, we still have to phase out gas drilling and that will include fracking.

Doug