Relative BigFoot Population Densities

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

this is posted by QuiteContrary:

"The Ohio Department of Natural Resources places Ohio’s total black bear population at around 100. By comparison, Pennsylvania’s black bear population is estimated to be around 8,000-10,000." 2013

http://2presspapers....-lorain-county/

And Pennsylvania has fewer BF sightings than Ohio. But when dealing with BF report databases, well, you know the story...

---------------------

Interesting, huh?

Also, Insanity has some nice stats he may release in here but his assertion is quite the same - all reports cannot be from misidentification.

but nice try

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

Some thoughts about Ohio:

Yes, the bear population is quite small, but has grown significantly in the past 20 years. (http://wildlifehaven...od.com/bear.htm). Biologists think that most of the population growth is the result of migration from WV and PA which both have much higher bear populations. Additionally, you are most likely to see a bear in Eastern Ohio near the WV and PA borders.

Looking at the BFRO map (http://www.bfro.net/...ng.asp?state=oh), lo and behold, where are most of the "sightings" found - you guessed it, Eastern Ohio close to the WV/PA border. Also of note is that the overwhelming majority of these "sightings" have taken place in the past 20 years.

Not saying that bears would account for all of the "sightings", but there does seem to be a strong correlation between the rise in bear population and location to bigfoot "sightings". There's also the not so insignificant fact that you're dealing with a population of people that is frankly not that familiar with what a bear in its natural habitat might look like.

Also keep in mind, that a good number of the BFRO reports aren't sightings at all - they're reports of unknown vocalizations (which we've discussed and debunked many times around here) and reports of things like footprints.

And, of course, the standard (and fairly significant) caveat - all it takes to make a report on the BFRO website is an internet connection.

Not saying that bears would account for all of the "sightings",

THank you. because it isn't even close.

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

Perhaps the number of Bigfoot sightings in a certain area is not predicated by the Squatch population itself (Bigfoot being a fictional character), nor by the overall human population numbers (not everyone can experience Bigfoot), but are directly affected by human factors — specifically, the number of followers of the Church of Latter-Day Saints (Mormons for whom the mythical figure represents a fringe part of their dynamic folklore) relative to the size of the state. Let us compare two US states, Washington and Louisiana.

Washington

276,837 Latter-Day Saints

567 Bigfoot reports

66.54 thousand square miles Land Area

Louisiana

29,366 Latter-Day Saints

40 Bigfoot reports

43.56 thousand square miles

http://en.wikipedia...._(United_States)

Washington has 9.12 times more Mormons than Louisiana.

Washington has 14.175 times more Bigfoot sightings than Louisiana but when the number of Louisiana Bigfoot sightings is adjusted by 1.528 (Washington is 1.528 times larger in area than Louisiana) to account for land area the differential becomes 9.3

So its not that there are 9.3 times more Bigfoots or the folk are 9.3 times more dishonest in one state compared to another. When reports are adjusted for land area, the number of Bigfoot reports in Washington and Louisiana are directly proportional (1% difference) to the number of Mormons in their respective states. This is what you'd expect if Bigfoot was a fringe cultural (psycho-social) experience/phenomenon...

your Moromon analogy is off a tadd.

talking about a hunman quality or ability is far from talking aboout their religious belief.

Saying that people in Washington are 9.3 times more likely to lie or prank than people in Louisiana is like saying that people in Washington have an average IQ of 130 while people in Louisiana have an average IQ of 80.

'Taint happening. ever.

Neither is one set of people's perpensity to lie ever going to be 9.3 times higher than another set of people's.

that means the assumption that all reports are lies is a bogus assumption, and if some reports are TRUE, then BF exists.

that's not speculation

[Rafterman]

Why doubt the dataset?

For the very reasons I stated. The data is self-reported and, at best, those reporting MIGHT receive a phone call followup from a BFRO member (i.e. true believer). I can sit here at my desk and weave a very intricate and detailed Bigfoot sighting and post it to BFRO. Then there's also the little tidbit that the majority of the sightings aren't sightings at all.

[Rafterman]

Not saying that bears would account for all of the "sightings",

THank you. because it isn't even close.

But then again, neither would bigfoot.....

[Rafterman]

Earl musta been on vaca - looking for bigfoot no doubt.

[Insanity]

Touch what? I don't see any reason to be skeptical of your math.

Skeptical of your dataset, most definitely, but your math looks pretty good.

Interestingly, however, the black bear population in Washington is 30,000 vs 700 in Louisiana.

Suppose should ask for source of bear population statistics.

[Night Walker]

your Moromon analogy is off a tadd.

talking about a hunman quality or ability is far from talking aboout their religious belief.

Saying that people in Washington are 9.3 times more likely to lie or prank than people in Louisiana is like saying that people in Washington have an average IQ of 130 while people in Louisiana have an average IQ of 80.

'Taint happening. ever.

Neither is one set of people's perpensity to lie ever going to be 9.3 times higher than another set of people's.

that means the assumption that all reports are lies is a bogus assumption, and if some reports are TRUE, then BF exists.

that's not speculation

It's not about IQ or lying it is storytelling - something which everyone does has been going on for much longer than recorded history. It is largely cultural - "Belief" is accompanied by the "performance of belief" thus using religion as an analogy for claims of Bigfoot sightings is very appropriate because it is all about the personal "experience" rather than the objective evidence. Ever notice how apparitions of Jesus and Mary only appear to Christians around the world? Same thing with Bigfoot...

Why on Earth would you assume that rates of storytelling about a mythological figure in one state should be relative to another particularly when the data is collected and promoted (not investigated) by a group of legend trippers who profit handsomely from their fantasy? My stats are just as valid and just as bogus as yours, EoT - the only difference is that you don't seem to believe so (just like the Bigfoot-fossil-head guy who is confident everyone else is mistaken - I doubt whether anyone could reason with him either)...

Fortunately, there is only one Bigfoot statistic that is comparable across time, territories, and populations - zero evidence.

Unfortunately for "existers" (What does that even mean?) people are (and have always been) more than capable of telling "true" (subjective) stories that have no basis in objective reality. Just like the Bigfoot-fossil-head guy (How many others are like him? 1 in 500? 1 in 1000? 1 in 10000?) - stories, fakes, and misidentifications - this is the "reality" of Bigfoot...

[Rafterman]

Suppose should ask for source of bear population statistics.

Easily Googleable

[Insanity]

Yes, googling 'bear popultion by state' the top result is this site, http://www.blackbearsociety.org/bearPopulationbyState.html, which doesn't cite where they got their numbers. It does match your figures for Washington and Louisiana, but again, no citation for the source.

[danbell06]

where's Ken?? yoo hoo, Ken? aweful quiet in here.

skeptics don't want to touch it?

People lie, and theres no such creature.

Just touched it.

Where's the monkey?

[Q-C]

In thinking about the illusive bigfoot and the databases of encounters that some will defend to their death as being real bigfoot encounters whether they were there or not,

I started thinking about other illusive, yet known documented animals and their alleged sightings: Cougars in Minnesota, black bears in Ohio, etc. How are any of these alleged rare sightings confirmed by officials?

• "Report the encounter or sighting to a conservation officer or local law enforcement authorities as soon as possible so evidence such as photographs, tracks, hair and scat can be located, identified, confirmed and documented."
  

http://www.dnr.state...ugar/index.html

This last step has been conspicuously and frequently left off Bf confirmed encounters. Plus, remember not all reports on Bigfoot databases are actual sightings of the creature! (50% were not on BFRO study I did on the 11 states with the most reports)

Officials were able to track one male cougar from Minnesota into Connecticut!!! But never an 500-800 pound giant? I am betting a feline would be a lot harder creature to track. Just my opinion, not based on any expertise tracking cats.

"the documented trek of one male cougar from western South Dakota through Minnesota and Wisconsin to southwestern Connecticut" same link as above

Where is the officially documented and confirmed evidence to accompany each BF report in any database?

Edited July 2, 2013 by QuiteContrary

[Fstop]

your Moromon analogy is off a tadd.

talking about a hunman quality or ability is far from talking aboout their religious belief.

Saying that people in Washington are 9.3 times more likely to lie or prank than people in Louisiana is like saying that people in Washington have an average IQ of 130 while people in Louisiana have an average IQ of 80.

'Taint happening. ever.

Neither is one set of people's perpensity to lie ever going to be 9.3 times higher than another set of people's.

that means the assumption that all reports are lies is a bogus assumption, and if some reports are TRUE, then BF exists.

that's not speculation

I have rarely read anyone here on the forums assert that all BF reports are lies. I think that all bigfoot reports are a combination of people who genuinely believe they saw (or heard) a BF but are mistaken, of folks who head out searching for BF and are so fervent in their desire to find the creature that EVERYTHING becomes a sign of one, and lastly (and probably statisically the smallest also) people who are out-and-out lying either to gain notoriety, to further the bigfoot mystique, or to garner attention for themselves.

My point is that I would say that the larger number of BF claims fall in the first two categories and not the group of liars.

[Q-C]

I have rarely read anyone here on the forums assert that all BF reports are lies. I think that all bigfoot reports are a combination of people who genuinely believe they saw (or heard) a BF but are mistaken, of folks who head out searching for BF and are so fervent in their desire to find the creature that EVERYTHING becomes a sign of one, and lastly (and probably statisically the smallest also) people who are out-and-out lying either to gain notoriety, to further the bigfoot mystique, or to garner attention for themselves.

My point is that I would say that the larger number of BF claims fall in the first two categories and not the group of liars.

It is my opinion we can put those researchers who investigate and confirm the reports in the same categories too.

[Insanity]

In thinking about the illusive bigfoot and the databases of encounters that some will defend to their death as being real bigfoot encounters whether they were there or not,

I started thinking about other illusive, yet known documented animals and their alleged sightings: Cougars in Minnesota, black bears in Ohio, etc. How are any of these alleged rare sightings confirmed by officials?

• "Report the encounter or sighting to a conservation officer or local law enforcement authorities as soon as possible so evidence such as photographs, tracks, hair and scat can be located, identified, confirmed and documented."
  

http://www.dnr.state...ugar/index.html

This last step has been conspicuously and frequently left off Bf confirmed encounters. Plus, remember not all reports on Bigfoot databases are actual sightings of the creature! (50% were not on BFRO study I did on the 11 states with the most reports)

Officials were able to track one male cougar from Minnesota into Connecticut!!! But never an 500-800 pound giant? I am betting a feline would be a lot harder creature to track. Just my opinion, not based on any expertise tracking cats.

"the documented trek of one male cougar from western South Dakota through Minnesota and Wisconsin to southwestern Connecticut" same link as above

Where is the officially documented and confirmed evidence to accompany each BF report in any database?

It doesn't really appear that the cougar had been physically tracked by anyone beyond some snow tracking in Minnesota and Wisconsin to collect some DNA samples. The only confirmed evidence of its apparent route and origin comes from the mentioned DNA samples, as well as those from the cougar population in the Black Hills of South Dakota and from its corpse. It was known to be in Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2009 and 2010 from DNA, or at least that the same cougar was, as well as some trail cameras there, but nothing to confirm it presence anywhere else. In addition, there were at least a half dozen (eight seems to be the number) confirmed sightings of a cougar in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan that are believed to be of the same animal. They have confirmed sightings of a cougar, but no confirmed sightings of this animal. If it had never been killed in an vehicle accident in 2011, no one may have even known it was in Connecticut. Once killed, its DNA was able to confirm its origins and that it traveled beyond Wisconsin. It appears that the animal was able to travel 1,500 miles or more (Google maps had 2,000 miles from the Black Hills to Milford if through Ontario), from South Dakota through Minnesota into Wisconsin, and then presumably into Upper Michigan to Ontario and through New York and into Connecticut, all the while maybe being seen or caught on camera six times or so. DNA only confirms maybe half or a third of the distance into Wisconsin, from there there is no confirmed evidence of its route, until killed by accident in Connecticut. Only by accidental death had anyone really become aware it had moved outside of Wisconsin.

Its travel is indeed documented, from DNA evidence, not from being physically tracked.

http://content.usato...-south-dakota/1

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14169829

http://www.ct.gov/de...ew.asp?q=483778

http://www.courant.c...0,3798831.story

[+DieChecker]

that is 567/61 = 9.3 times the BigFoot population density

CONCLUSION: (for EXISTERS) The Bigfoot population density in Washington is 9.3 times that of the BigFoot population density of Louisiana.

or... CONCLUSION II: (for ~EXISTERS) People in Washington lie 9.3 times as people in Louisiana! ROFLMAO!!

Maybe the people of Washington are 9 times as perceptive? Or the people of Louisiana 9 times more lazy?

[+DieChecker]

Interestingly, however, the black bear population in Washington is 30,000 vs 700 in Louisiana.

Might that equal more food for more bigfoots? Since they supposedly eat about the same things? Renforcing BFs chance of existance.

Or would a lack of bears in Louisiana supposedly result in more food for BF and supposedly result in a higher BF percentage population? Thus refuting BFs existance.

Yes, the bear population is quite small, but has grown significantly in the past 20 years.

Probably the bears in Ohio lost in the great Bigfoot-Bear War that supposedly is still going on over in Siberia.

[Q-C]

It doesn't really appear that the cougar had been physically tracked by anyone beyond some snow tracking in Minnesota and Wisconsin to collect some DNA samples. The only confirmed evidence of its apparent route and origin comes from the mentioned DNA samples, as well as those from the cougar population in the Black Hills of South Dakota and from its corpse. It was known to be in Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2009 and 2010 from DNA, or at least that the same cougar was, as well as some trail cameras there, but nothing to confirm it presence anywhere else. In addition, there were at least a half dozen (eight seems to be the number) confirmed sightings of a cougar in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan that are believed to be of the same animal. They have confirmed sightings of a cougar, but no confirmed sightings of this animal. If it had never been killed in an vehicle accident in 2011, no one may have even known it was in Connecticut. Once killed, its DNA was able to confirm its origins and that it traveled beyond Wisconsin. It appears that the animal was able to travel 1,500 miles or more (Google maps had 2,000 miles from the Black Hills to Milford if through Ontario), from South Dakota through Minnesota into Wisconsin, and then presumably into Upper Michigan to Ontario and through New York and into Connecticut, all the while maybe being seen or caught on camera six times or so. DNA only confirms maybe half or a third of the distance into Wisconsin, from there there is no confirmed evidence of its route, until killed by accident in Connecticut. Only by accidental death had anyone really become aware it had moved outside of Wisconsin.

Its travel is indeed documented, from DNA evidence, not from being physically tracked.

http://content.usato...-south-dakota/1

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=14169829

http://www.ct.gov/de...ew.asp?q=483778

http://www.courant.c...0,3798831.story

Thanks I will read through your links.

Even if the trail cam photos and route were only speculative as to the identity of the cougar as the same specific male, we still have had nothing even remotely similar documented and verified in the bigfoot realm:

DNA identity testing, trail cam photos, known population locations, scat blood and hair, death at the hands of a human, a corpse, DNA testing confirming the same animal in one state was found to have been in other states as well, and "tracking" through the means just listed even if some "tracking" was done after death.

Edited July 2, 2013 by QuiteContrary

[Q-C]

From: http://abcnews.go.com/US/conn-mountain-lion-made-long-journey-south-dakota/story?id=14169829#.UdKpbfnCauI

"The cougar's corpse is currently in a freezer" Criminy!

Just kidding, it seem this corpse is real.