seeder Posted September 13, 2013 #1 Share Posted September 13, 2013 (edited) Monty Hall problem: The probability puzzle that makes your head melt. (not sure where to post this - pls move if not suitable for the forum section) A reference in a recent Magazine article to the Monty Hall problem - where a contestant has to pick one of three boxes - left readers scratching their heads. Why does this probability scenario hurt everyone's brain so much, asks maths lecturer Dr John Moriarty. WITH VID: http://www.bbc.co.uk...gazine-24045598 Edited September 13, 2013 by Saru Reduced length of copied text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seeder Posted September 13, 2013 Author #2 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Better Explained Understanding the Monty Hall Problem The Monty Hall problem is a counter-intuitive statistics puzzle: There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course. Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and always opens one of them with a goat (Both doors might have goats; he’ll randomly pick one to open) Here’s the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the other unopened door? Does it matter? Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time! http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bendy Demon Posted September 13, 2013 #3 Share Posted September 13, 2013 (edited) I honestly do not see what is so strange and hard about this puzzle (is it really a puzzle?) All you are doing is taking a gamble that the other box contains more money and the chances are great that the others do not. It's a cheap carnival trick and if an instructor pulled that on me I would immediately feel that I wasted my hard-earned money on such nonsense. A supposed 2/3 chance still means nothing..you still have to chose the right one which still means your actual chances are slim. Trying the "challenge" I find it is still gamble. After fifteen tries and winning only three times, it didn't seem to really prove anything. Edited September 13, 2013 by Ryu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seeder Posted September 13, 2013 Author #4 Share Posted September 13, 2013 (edited) First off why do you have a link that directs you to a page to make a new post? Secondly I honestly do not see what is so strange and hard about this puzzle (is it really a puzzle?) All you are doing is taking a gamble that the other box contains more money and the chances are great that the others do not. It's a cheap carnival trick and if an instructor pulled that on me I would immediately feel that I wasted my hard-earned money on such nonsense. Link has since been edited/updated. My bad Perhaps you didnt understand the puzzle? Have a deeper read. if you like http://en.wikipedia....ty_Hall_problem "The problem is a paradox of the veridical type, because the correct result (you should switch doors) is at first sight ludicrous, but is nevertheless demonstrably true. The Monty Hall problem is mathematically closely related to the earlier Three Prisoners problem and to the much older Bertrand's box paradox. Links in text above are clickable . Edited September 13, 2013 by seeder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeWitz Posted September 13, 2013 #5 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Thanks, Seeder, for the reading list---I'll get no sleep tonight. . . .! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wickian Posted September 13, 2013 #6 Share Posted September 13, 2013 It's been explained enough to not be much of a confusing problem. You have 1/3 chance when you pick door A, that means there's a 2/3 chance it's behind door B and C combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now