Will Russia come to the "aid" of Ukraine?

[NiteMarcher]

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

I know many here think of me in unflattering terms but I tell you Thanato I really have a bad feeling about this. Maybe it's because I grew up with the old Soviet threat but I realize now how imperfect and venal our leaders are. It is amazingly like a damned high stakes poker game. And our president can't bluff for crap. This could easily spin out of control and be like a Cuban Missile Crisis. If it does then we in the US are screwed.

We're all screwed if the US and the EU p***ing contest us into another war.

[Mr.United_Nations]

It unsettles me when I can see the kinds of strategies I imagine, being played out in real time.

http://rt.com/op-edg...ine-threat-218/

The Right Sector is talking about disrupting gas flow through the country to Europe. This thing is getting uglier by the hour it seems.

Well if the EU does place sanctions against Russia, Russia will minimize, raise prices of gas to European nations and look East. It's Russia that controls gas and not the rest of Europe

[Frank Merton]

I don't doubt that here and there people are being forced to vote a certain way: I also don't doubt that all such things do is undermine the election, which the Russians would win anyway.

Russia is making itself seem an unreliable supplier of a necessary commodity. That will be remembered and substitutions will be put in place wherever possible even after things settle down. They are doing themselves immense harm out of nationalism.

[+and-then]

We're all screwed if the US and the EU p***ing contest us into another war.

So Russia has no role in this? Just innocents coming to the aid of their brethren? I don't want war either - but history is very clear on what comes from unanswered aggressions.

[+and-then]

Well if the EU does place sanctions against Russia, Russia will minimize, raise prices of gas to European nations and look East. It's Russia that controls gas and not the rest of Europe

I recently read that 40% of Russia's income is from gas sales to Europe. It is convenient to buy from Russia but if the source goes up in price or becomes unstable then after a short period of pain Europe will find new suppliers. Russia is not in such a strong position as one might think. This is troubling because as Putin comes under pressure from his bosses he will become more belligerent.

[stevewinn]

I have always considered you to be a reasonable, thoughtful individual so I'm curious, Stevewinn, can you not understand the reticence on the part of the west to simply step aside and allow a Russian leader to repeat what happened in Georgia and thereby strengthen it's precedent? Russia, whatever it might be today has a history of some very bad acts in the not so recent past. Should all that just be forgotten? Putin wants to rebuild a leaner, meaner empire and he is on his way to achieving it. The problem is that we could end up in a war either way we handle it. The only question is whether it happens now or in a couple of years.

The reason why im being restraint in my rsponse to the crisis is because we have a situation were we can do very little, the only way to get Russia out of crimea is through military force, and its evident no-one is willing to go down that road, and righly so.

As for sanctions, these are a joke, far to many countries have their own vested interest. If the EU was to use its full force of 'soft' power and hit Russia with real hard hitting sanctions making them sit up and think - but even then, sanctions will effect EU members in varying ways energy/economic - for example will Germany agree to tough sanctions that would hit Germany harder than say France or the United Kingdom? and vice versa. No is the answer, that is why we are seeing sanctions targetting individuals in Russia rather than the state; its because the 'allies' cannot agree, and it highlights the problems with sanctions. this then brings about another problem more serious for us than Russia - the real danger is this, we apply half baked sanctions against Russia and we come out worse than Russia and the sanctions backfire on us. (this is were the story comes from about sanctions hiting the EU worse than Russia) Russia as already started moving its state assests out of countries who would impose sanctions.

So its clear, is the Ukraine of vital importance to our sphere influence, does each country (EU) put aside personal interests and apply tough hitting sanctions, are we prepared to use military force? are we really prepared to risk our own economic security and economic growth after six years of economic problems? if we answer NO to any number of them questions then that limits our response.

the other Risk we run is we embolden Russia, and take a gamble - hope they stop at Crimea and in the future dont start eyeing up the other regions including the Balkins. the russians have already started sending fighters to Belarus, i doubt many people want to go to war over Ukriane even to stop the spread of Russian influence. even if some feel we have a moral obligation citing the budapest agreement. http://en.wikipedia....rity_Assurances

We need to get the UN involved more, allow the UN to take the lead so this stops being a West versus Russia affair, it will then allow all UN members big and small to condemn Russia show a global unity and maybe force the issue for continued talking around the table, negotiating a peacful outcome, but if that fails and Russia refuse to leave Ukraine (Crimea) i havent a clue what we can do - short of deploying military assets in neighbouring NATO countries, combined with hard hitting sanctions and a clear line drawn for Russia so eveyone is clear and then we prepared for the worst, and the worst is WAR.

Edited March 17, 2014 by stevewinn

[SolarPlexus]

I was watching CNN a couple hours ago where Christine Amanpour said voters were being forced by gun point to vote Russian

Heh..... Amanpour always gives me a chuckle.... usually when someone needs to vilify someone in the western press, they give a call to Christine and its been like that for the last 30 years.... She is kind of a "Ruder Finn in 1 person"

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

So Russia has no role in this? Just innocents coming to the aid of their brethren? I don't want war either - but history is very clear on what comes from unanswered aggressions.

Russia is doing something wrong.

The EU and the US are compounding that. I see no "right way" to handle the situation but I do see a "wrong way" and a load of mouth service and threats to "sanction" and "not recognise the legitimacy of the vote" is certainly "not the right way".

You think sanctions are the right move? then use them. Don't "threaten them".

You think the vote is "illegitimate"? Fine. But it's happened and everyone involved will be treating it as legal, your position just makes you look petulant.

[Mr.United_Nations]

If the Crimeans wanted to join Russia a few years ago, why didn't they? there is something bizarre about this

[Frank Merton]

What is bizarre about Russians being imperialists?

[Mr.United_Nations]

What is bizarre about Russians being imperialists?

That Crimean want to join now, rather than last year or 5 years past.

[Helen of Annoy]

That Crimean want to join now, rather than last year or 5 years past.

5 years in the past Russia thought they will silently suck Ukraine in customs union, continue Russification and in 50 years Ukraine would be just a province of Greater Russian empire that is currently in making.

Since Ukraine decided they won’t go back to resurrected USSR, especially not silently, there’s suddenly Russian minority to protect from losing complete domination over majority.

Russian aparatchiks in Ukraine, Crimea included, had and have no will of their own, so the timing wasn't theirs, it's Moscow's timing, strategy, forces and goals.

edit: apostrophe catastrophe. fixed. I think.

Edited March 18, 2014 by Helen of Annoy

[Mr.United_Nations]

The Ukranian forces in Crimea are being extremely cool not to use force while on the other Pro Russians seem to do so.

[FLOMBIE]

“We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs,” Temirgaliyev (remark: Crimean Vice President) said. “But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars,” he said.

Link

[Frank Merton]

“We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs,” Temirgaliyev (remark: Crimean Vice President) said. “But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars,” he said.

Link

Doesn't sound good for the Tatars.

[aztek]

yea Eminent domain. it happens in usa as well.

also article said many of those lands tatars developed\build on illegaly.

from same article.

Many Crimean Tatars have taken over unclaimed land as squatters by building houses, farms and mosques.

[Helen of Annoy]

http://en.wikipedia..../Crimean_Tatars

Soviet policies on the peninsula led to widespread starvation in 1921.^{[citation needed]} Food was confiscated for shipment to central Russia, while more than 100,000 Tatars starved to death, and tens of thousands fled to Turkey or Romania.^[28] Thousands more were deported or slaughtered during the collectivization in 1928–29.^[28] The government campaign led to another famine in 1931–33. No other Soviet nationality suffered the decline imposed on the Crimean Tatars; between 1917 and 1933 half the Crimean Tatar population had been killed or deported.^[28]

During World War II, the entire Crimean Tatar population in Crimea fell victim to Soviet policies. Although a great number of Crimean Tatar men served in the Red Army and took part in the partisan movement in Crimea during the war, the existence of the Tatar Legion in the Nazi army and the collaboration of Crimean Tatar religious and political leaders with Hitler during the German occupation of Crimea provided the Soviets with a pretext for accusing the whole Crimean Tatar population of being Nazi collaborators. Modern researchers also point to the fact that a further reason was the geopolitical position^[which?] of Crimea where Crimean Tatars were perceived as a threat.^[29] This belief is based in part on an analogy with numerous other cases of deportations of non-Russians from boundary territories, as well as the fact that other non-Russian populations, such as Greeks, Armenians and Bulgarians were also removed from Crimea.^{[citation needed]}

All Crimean Tatars were deported en masse, in a form of collective punishment, on 18 May 1944 as "special settlers" to Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic and other distant parts of the Soviet Union.^[30] The decree "On Crimean Tatars" describes the resettlement as a very humane procedure. The reality described by the victims in their memoirs was different. 46.3% of the resettled population died of diseases and malnutrition.^{[citation needed]} This event is called Sürgün in the Crimean Tatar language. Many of them were re-located to toil as indentured workers in the Soviet GULAG system.^[31]

Edited March 19, 2014 by Helen of Annoy

[aztek]

all true. stalin deported and killed millions. even before stalin bolsheviki did that as well.

Edited March 19, 2014 by aztek

[SolarPlexus]

also article said many of those lands tatars developed\build on illegaly.

....

Many Crimean Tatars have taken over unclaimed land as squatters by building houses, farms and mosques.

These posters don't even read the article fully ..... First thing, they jumped to accuse Russia ahahahaha

[Frank Merton]

I get the notion the Tatars had been moving back and reclaiming property the Russian settlers had taken from them under Communism.

[+and-then]

Russia is doing something wrong.

The EU and the US are compounding that. I see no "right way" to handle the situation but I do see a "wrong way" and a load of mouth service and threats to "sanction" and "not recognise the legitimacy of the vote" is certainly "not the right way".

You think sanctions are the right move? then use them. Don't "threaten them".

You think the vote is "illegitimate"? Fine. But it's happened and everyone involved will be treating it as legal, your position just makes you look petulant.

I think Russia should be hammered with debilitating sanctions or Obama just needs to shut up. If Ukrainians want to secede to Russia that is there business. If a portion of them want to blow pipelines and buses and train stations in response that is also their business. But we both know that Putin wants to rebuild the glory of his youth and apparently a great many Russians feel the same. Tough times ahead I expect.

[stevewinn]

I think Russia should be hammered with debilitating sanctions or Obama just needs to shut up. If Ukrainians want to secede to Russia that is there business. If a portion of them want to blow pipelines and buses and train stations in response that is also their business. But we both know that Putin wants to rebuild the glory of his youth and apparently a great many Russians feel the same. Tough times ahead I expect.

forget about debilitating sanctions, we just havent got the ability to impose such and the option dosent even exist. Russia is in a position strength they'll endure anything we can throw at them, and there is nothing we can do to change that, whatever they want to do they'll do. Putin is no fool. The smugness of the West after the collapse of the USSR as led to this, we the west promised Russia we wouldnt expand eastwards (NATO) to its borders, and we broke every promise because it was us who where in a position of strength. just look at the expansion, the US missile defence shield etc.... now a resurgent Russia has bided its time and guess what they are back, picked the perfect moment. the West is up in arms because Russia is playing us at our own game. Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya. Arab Spring. - Russias attitude was why interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake - that attitude changed somewhat when Syria popped onto the scene.

We have to face facts we can do nothing against Russia. Crimea is now part of Russia. which was always their aim from day one. but did anyone really expect Russia to just sit there and do nothing? they seen a EU backed Ukraine falling into a despot situation, with the EU unable to save Ukrianes economy offering just $15 Billion when $45 Billion was needed, in stepped Russia with the multi billion dollar deal, the EU seen Ukraine slipping from its grasp and soft power was used. probelm was the EU dosent have the stomach for it, and definitely dosent have the money to support it. So Russia moved in its own interest and annexed Crimea. Well played Russia. the west can jump up 'n down in a hissy fit all it wants its checkmate to Russia.

[+and-then]

forget about debilitating sanctions, we just havent got the ability to impose such and the option dosent even exist. Russia is in a position strength they'll endure anything we can throw at them, and there is nothing we can do to change that, whatever they want to do they'll do. Putin is no fool. The smugness of the West after the collapse of the USSR as led to this, we the west promised Russia we wouldnt expand eastwards (NATO) to its borders, and we broke every promise because it was us who where in a position of strength. just look at the expansion, the US missile defence shield etc.... now a resurgent Russia has bided its time and guess what they are back, picked the perfect moment. the West is up in arms because Russia is playing us at our own game. Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya. Arab Spring. - Russias attitude was why interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake - that attitude changed somewhat when Syria popped onto the scene.

We have to face facts we can do nothing against Russia. Crimea is now part of Russia. which was always their aim from day one. but did anyone really expect Russia to just sit there and do nothing? they seen a EU backed Ukraine falling into a despot situation, with the EU unable to save Ukrianes economy offering just $15 Billion when $45 Billion was needed, in stepped Russia with the multi billion dollar deal, the EU seen Ukraine slipping from its grasp and soft power was used. probelm was the EU dosent have the stomach for it, and definitely dosent have the money to support it. So Russia moved in its own interest and annexed Crimea. Well played Russia. the west can jump up 'n down in a hissy fit all it wants its checkmate to Russia.

Congratulate them on their "win" if you like. I remember the 70's and the 80's and the reach the bear had. Whatever sins the US may have committed were certainly not worse than the old USSR. If it comes back the world will be a more dangerous place - if that's even possible.

[keithisco]

EU leaders have signed an agreement on closer relations with Ukraine, in a show of support following Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine's interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the EU signed the deal in Brussels.

Pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych's abandonment of the deal had led to deadly protests, his removal and Russia taking over Crimea.

On Friday, Russia's upper house unanimously approved the treaty on Crimea joining the Russian Federation.

'Rule of law'

The EU Association Agreement is designed to give Ukraine's interim leadership economic and political support.

EU President Herman Van Rompuy said in a statementthat the accord "recognises the aspirations of the people of Ukraine to live in a country governed by values, by democracy and the rule of law"

Link (BBC): http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-26680250

Edited March 21, 2014 by keithisco