Will Russia come to the "aid" of Ukraine?

[Helen of Annoy]

...you missed the best joke of all Helen...Russia has won! The Crimea will become part of the Russian Federation, regardless of the protestations of the West. Putin/the Devil are one and the same for you and so they should be cause he's just condemned the Ukraine to a life time of regret and hell. He has out manoeuvred Obama and the EU. In the absence of military action from NATO or the impotent Ukrainians attacking to reclaim their lost territory, the current US response of "political and economic" retaliation only serves to stop the devil from marching into Eastern Ukraine and NOT giving back the Crimea.

Sympathy for the Devil? or maybe for the Ukraine?

Oh, Russia has won something while I wasn't looking? What have they won? One way trip to 17th century?

Ukrainians are not impotent. They are wise and patient.

I know it’s extremely difficult to remain calm and patient when faced with the extreme provocations, so I admire their cool.

Ukrainians will enter history as the first modern nation that had wisdom and courage to apply the refusal of war as self-defence tactics. It is great tactics, because it also defends the attackers too, from their own idiotism at the same time.

Never mistake peacefulness for weakness. Again I speak from my own experience. The one that was patient enough to give peace a chance will also be patient enough to fight to the grave and beyond it.

But let us now still hope for the sane end of this crisis.

[Harry_Dresden]

What exactly has Russia "Won"?? With only 58.5% of Crimea Ethnic Russian, and hundreds of thousands of them NOT wanting to become a Russian Satellite, how does the Autonomous govt hope to secure the 75% "Yes" vote to enter into negotiations with both Ukraine and Russian governments? Remember the vote is not until March 16th so it has not even been held yet.

The figures you're referring to are Ukrainian figures...I have yet to see any pro-Ukrainian actions in Crimea that don't support Russian annexation. You also failed to mention that the 25% Ukrainians are over-whelmingly Russian speakers so I guess time will tell.

How will Russia fare economically when Ukraine buys its gas from the EU instead of Russia? The loss of 100Bn Euros to the Russian teasury annually is no small item for Putin to trifle with, given the dire state of Russia's economy.

I doubt that Europe will be able to sell Ukraine any gas/oil since the majority of Europe's power needs come from Russia. But you are right that such trade sanctions will have a negative balance on the Russian economy... but consider also that while the USA has no need of Russian resources the same cannot be said for Europe which is solely dependent on Russia for its needs. So a successful sanctions policy to convince Russia that a political solution is needed for Ukraine depends on European economies bearing the brunt of a trade and sanctions war. Good luck on that one.

And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Suppose Russia does "win" (in your simplistic terms) it would be nothing more than a Pyrrhic victory For members not having English as their mother tongue, a Pyrrhic victory, is a victory with such a devastating cost that it is tantamount to defeat (Wiki definition).

Same can be said for America. One thing is for sure that the best the US can hope for is a diplomatic compromise which by it's very definition must be a compromise and since Russia started with nothing it means that settling for half of what it wants is half more than it started out. But all that means nothing since even though this will not result in armed confrontation the likelihood of another cold war and back stepping on critical issues like START and weapons and technology sales would be de-stabilizing for American interests. Russia IMO has won... the only question is how much.

[Harry_Dresden]

Oh, Russia has won something while I wasn't looking? What have they won? One way trip to 17th century?

If they didn't win anything, Helen, so what did they lose since they have effectively taken over the Crimea and it's troops are poised on Ukraine eastern boarder. Last week Crimea was under Ukrainian control... this week it's Russian.

Ukrainians are not impotent. They are wise and patient.

I know it’s extremely difficult to remain calm and patient when faced with the extreme provocations, so I admire their cool.

Ukrainians will enter history as the first modern nation that had wisdom and courage to apply the refusal of war as self-defence tactics. It is great tactics, because it also defends the attackers too, from their own idiotism at the same time.

World history is littered with such "wise and patient" nations...lol Ukraine would have been better off acting like wolf instead of playing the sheep crying for the guard dog (USA) to save it.

Never mistake peacefulness for weakness. Again I speak from my own experience. The one that was patient enough to give peace a chance will also be patient enough to fight to the grave and beyond it.

But let us now still hope for the sane end of this crisis.

That's beautifully written Helen... did you get that from Gandhi or from the Dali Lama.

[Harry_Dresden]

"in an interview with America Tonight, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was pessimistic about whether Ukraine would ever regain control of Crimea."

and...

"McCain also accused President Obama of behaving in a way that “played right into Putin’s hands,” and slammed Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel’s proposal of a fact-finding mission, which Putin accepted, as “milquetoast.”

...also

“I’m very worried about eastern Ukraine. I don’t know how far he'll go. I predicted Crimea by the way because of the importance of Sevastopol. I hope (Putin) doesn’t go further. What I think you may see is different cities and mayors and people who are sort of declaring their allegiance to Russia. I hope it’s not an outright separation.”

Read more: http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/america-tonight/america-tonight-blog/2014/3/3/mccain-obama-hasplayedrightintoputinshands.html

[bmk1245]

[...] the same cannot be said for Europe which is solely dependent on Russia for its needs. [...]

Solely?! About 1/3 (gas/crude oil) in Europe is from Russia. Talking about solely...

Gazprom already nagging our government (one of the most insignificant countries in EU) to sign contract for gas at prices 20% lower than nowadays. Just imagine what they will propose when LNG in Klaipeda (this year) will start to operate. Not to mention other LNG sites (in construction/proposed) in Poland, Estonia/Finland, Croatia and other countries. Heck, even Ukraine with the help of EU may cut dependence on Russian gas. Do I have to explain consequences for Russia (whose budget relies mainly on export of resources)?

And another thing: what would happen if people in Siberia would say one day "Enough. We are tired feeding crooks in the west. We want to be independent country(s) Siberia"? European part of Russia (iskonno Russkije zemli) would find themselves in much deeper s#!t than Ukraine is now.

[keithisco]

The figures you're referring to are Ukrainian figures...I have yet to see any pro-Ukrainian actions in Crimea that don't support Russian annexation. You also failed to mention that the 25% Ukrainians are over-whelmingly Russian speakers so I guess time will tell.

I doubt that Europe will be able to sell Ukraine any gas/oil since the majority of Europe's power needs come from Russia. But you are right that such trade sanctions will have a negative balance on the Russian economy... but consider also that while the USA has no need of Russian resources the same cannot be said for Europe which is solely dependent on Russia for its needs. So a successful sanctions policy to convince Russia that a political solution is needed for Ukraine depends on European economies bearing the brunt of a trade and sanctions war. Good luck on that one.

Same can be said for America. One thing is for sure that the best the US can hope for is a diplomatic compromise which by it's very definition must be a compromise and since Russia started with nothing it means that settling for half of what it wants is half more than it started out. But all that means nothing since even though this will not result in armed confrontation the likelihood of another cold war and back stepping on critical issues like START and weapons and technology sales would be de-stabilizing for American interests. Russia IMO has won... the only question is how much.

You are ignoring the huge petition signed by hundreds of thousands of Russian speaking Ukrainians in Crimea (but then you would as it does not fit with your argument)

You are also completely wrong in saying that the EU is dependent on Russian gas - this is simply a disingenuous attempt to suggest that Ukraine and the EU is SOLELY dependent on Russian gas. This is not the case, and a little research (which you will not do) will tell you that.

The figures I refer to are verified internationally, by every Poll company that has ever asked the question.

You clearly like the idea that Russia can do whatever it wants to do (I have no idea why) but the fact is that it is Russia that will back down in the face of enormous economic sanctions from the west.

Russia is already teetering on the brink of total economic collapse (I am sure that Putin would like this to re-instate all of his KGB buddies in a new Stalinist regime) and this "adventure" into the Crimea, may well bring this about.

[keithisco]

"in an interview with America Tonight, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was pessimistic about whether Ukraine would ever regain control of Crimea."

and...

"McCain also accused President Obama of behaving in a way that “played right into Putin’s hands,” and slammed Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel’s proposal of a fact-finding mission, which Putin accepted, as “milquetoast.”

...also

“I’m very worried about eastern Ukraine. I don’t know how far he'll go. I predicted Crimea by the way because of the importance of Sevastopol. I hope (Putin) doesn’t go further. What I think you may see is different cities and mayors and people who are sort of declaring their allegiance to Russia. I hope it’s not an outright separation.”

Read more: http://america.aljaz...utinshands.html

Senator John McCain is not an influential reference - he hates Obama and every single thing he stands for. You really need to do better than this

[SolarPlexus]

The "new government" in Kiev is so funny, reminds me of the Libyan NTC, a bunch of disorganized and confused people. Money is all gone, watch as they cry to the west asking for more and more help. Saw a session of the "new parliament" in Kiev the other day, fascist flags everywhere and shouting Bandera's slogans. This is the kind of people USA/NATO/EU loves to associates with. Every year western credibility in foreign affairs is plummeting.

[Helen of Annoy]

Solely?! About 1/3 (gas/crude oil) in Europe is from Russia. Talking about solely...

Gazprom already nagging our government (one of the most insignificant countries in EU) to sign contract for gas at prices 20% lower than nowadays. Just imagine what they will propose when LNG in Klaipeda (this year) will start to operate. Not to mention other LNG sites (in construction/proposed) in Poland, Estonia/Finland, Croatia and other countries. Heck, even Ukraine with the help of EU may cut dependence on Russian gas. Do I have to explain consequences for Russia (whose budget relies mainly on export of resources)?

And another thing: what would happen if people in Siberia would say one day "Enough. We are tired feeding crooks in the west. We want to be independent country(s) Siberia"? European part of Russia (iskonno Russkije zemli) would find themselves in much deeper s#!t than Ukraine is now.

Not to mention Belarus. One of the reasons why Yanukovich was pressured by Moscow to break the uprising down by any force needed was the fear that people trapped in other puppet dictatorships might follow the example of Ukraine and start demanding basic human rights if not actual freedom.

By the way, it’s so convenient that Yanukovich had a heart attack. If he’s dead than there won’t be any process at International court.

Another similarity with ex-Yugoslavia, Milosevic croaked from heart attack in custody in Den Haag.

I’d bet that Yanukovich’s health will improve or deteriorate depending on developments in Ukraine.

[bmk1245]

Not to mention Belarus. One of the reasons why Yanukovich was pressured by Moscow to break the uprising down by any force needed was the fear that people trapped in other puppet dictatorships might follow the example of Ukraine and start demanding basic human rights if not actual freedom.

[...]

Mentioning Belarus brings some stories when Belarus opposition activists in court started to talk in Belorussian, judges, guards, stenographer and others went "WTF?! What the hell they are talking about? I can't understand!"

[...]

By the way, it’s so convenient that Yanukovich had a heart attack. [...]

Not surprising when his wealth gone in just "one second"...

[stevewinn]

how much oil and gas does the EU import from Russia? I've tried to get facts and figures from the EU's website but i can only find data from 2010. which is to old, for example it stated Germany was the largest importer of Russian gas. - 38% of Germany's gas is imported from Russia, but the official German figures which are far more up to date 2013 now have that figure at 26%.

[spud the mackem]

Why do the "Western Powers" start panicking when Putin so much as yawns..If he has decided that he wants control of Crimea, so be it,he will get control, and no one will stop him..Why wont they stop him..because they are all scared that he will start mobilising his troops on other borders... its all mind games and he is winning hands down.

The Crimea incident is probably a diversion to take the Russian peoples minds off the fact that he's putting their taxes up.

[Mr.United_Nations]

Why do the "Western Powers" start panicking when Putin so much as yawns..If he has decided that he wants control of Crimea, so be it,he will get control, and no one will stop him..Why wont they stop him..because they are all scared that he will start mobilising his troops on other borders... its all mind games and he is winning hands down.

The Crimea incident is probably a diversion to take the Russian peoples minds off the fact that he's putting their taxes up.

Putin doesn't want Crimea, he only wants the Russian Naval base because hes afraid it wal fall into the wrong hands

Countries are right to be scared of Russia, well because Russia pretty much owns everything

[Corp]

Actually I think the reason why Putin wants the naval base is because it's been a long established Russia strategic goal for centuries. If someone else was in charge of Russia they would want to protect the naval base as well. That being said if that was their only goal they could have easily maintained their hold over the base by doing nothing. Put out a statement that if the Right Sector wasn't put in its place or if a 'train of friendship' was attempted then Russia would step in. Instead they sent out a bunch of "polite men" that are totally not Russian soldiers to take over government buildings and target Ukrainian military bases. Likewise if they wanted to annex Crimea they might have done so by doing nothing. Let the original vote on having Crimea become more independent go through, offer them protection, and then quietly annex them a few years down the road. Instead the annexation vote is being rammed through with international observers being barred from the region and a bunch of not-Russian troops walking around. Yeah, that's going to be viewed as legit.

This whole crisis has been one knee jerk reaction after another.

[SolarPlexus]

They reason Putin wants the naval base is because he's a paranoid lunatic who believes the west is out to get him and destroy Russia. The only thing "scary" about Russia is their irrational leader who's clinically insane.

He's pretty much the only serious world leader. And the concern coming from the west is real, am I a paranoid lunatic too?

[Helen of Annoy]

Ah, let Solar enjoy his ride for a while.

He’s so happy, like many Serbian extremists, because their rusty chetnik trailer is being towed by Russian tank all the way to Crimea.

When Russian tank takes sudden turn, the appendages of aggression will have to swim to their Serbian home, which is not a good news for people who are proverbially scared of water.

So, Solar, don't say later you were not told it will not end well.

[Harry_Dresden]

You are ignoring the huge petition signed by hundreds of thousands of Russian speaking Ukrainians in Crimea (but then you would as it does not fit with your argument)

Ahhh... that "HUGE" petition...lol. More like tens of thousands and NOT Hundreds of thousands so take it easy there big guy.

"some locals created a petition signed by tens of thousands telling Russia they didn't need Russian help."

http://www.usatoday....litary/5944179/

You are also completely wrong in saying that the EU is dependent on Russian gas - this is simply a disingenuous attempt to suggest that Ukraine and the EU is SOLELY dependent on Russian gas. This is not the case, and a little research (which you will not do) will tell you that.

I don't think so.. by and large the EU is dependent on Russian gas and also the competitive price mechanism that it provides to lower the over all energy costs and needs of the EU... Get rid of Russian gas and all of a sudden the price will skyrocket exponentially. But it's not just gas that has the EU's nuts in Russia's hands...

Russia is the largest oil, gas, uranium and coal exporter to the EU. Likewise, the EU is by far the largest trade partner of the Russian Federation. Based on this mutual interdependency and common interest in the energy sector, the EU and Russia developed a close energy partnership and launched an EU-Russia Energy Dialogue in 2000.

http://ec.europa.eu/...a/russia_en.htm

The following quote and link were part of a EU Russian trade talks only just last year. I can't imagine that much has changed since then.

The figures I refer to are verified internationally, by every Poll company that has ever asked the question.

The figures you present are misleading and cherry picked. I stated across the EU figures and you used specific low end examples to illustrate an otherwise poor attempt to continue your dead end argument. Please refer to the above quote and link from the EU trade commission.

You clearly like the idea that Russia can do whatever it wants to do (I have no idea why) but the fact is that it is Russia that will back down in the face of enormous economic sanctions from the west.

No I don't ! I'm not Russian and by and large the United States and Europe are better and nobler place's to live... BUT fair is fair... The policy in Ukraine stinks of hypocrisy and cold war western ideology. The smart thing for the USA would have been to offer Russia a new partnership that was reassuring and non confrontational. and in return they could have tackled such problems as proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology, keeping a common future enemy like the Chinese at bay and energy control. Instead, the USA has created problem after problem in it's dealings not just with Russia but all over the world )especially the Middle East) where it could have joined forces with Russia in combatting extremists and allowing the safe energy flow that's needed in the west, instead of supporting the overthrow of dictators and trying to replace them with EVEN greater evil people like Islamic hardcore fundamentalists. Unfortunately, America doesn't want to work with other responsible nations like Russia but would rather just vie for power with old foes. A very sad state of affairs.

Russia is already teetering on the brink of total economic collapse (I am sure that Putin would like this to re-instate all of his KGB buddies in a new Stalinist regime) and this "adventure" into the Crimea, may well bring this about.

Same can be said about America. Russia can boycott and embargo too... gas and oil to the Ukraine and also Europe. They can pull out of nuclear arms reduction treaties. In short, America's goal is stability and security... and without Russian help i can't see it happening. this will all blow over. Besides what's really changed in Ukraine that will change the world? the Ukrainians got a new pimp and the old one (Russia) is just taking back it's due and respect. Ukraine is in the middle of no where. It's only importance to America is that it sits on the boarder of Russia and that in it's self should tell you who's intentions are honest and about the good of the Ukrainian people. I mean really what would the American's have done to Mexico if it made a deal with China? Nothing is going to happen to Russia OR it's economy, In the end it's not about Ukraine but rather US and Russia and how they can reach a solution while BOTH not losing face.

Edited March 9, 2014 by Harry_Dresden

[Harry_Dresden]

Senator John McCain is not an influential reference - he hates Obama and every single thing he stands for. You really need to do better than this

John McCain is the most influential and high profile Republican in America. He sits and chairs (if memory serves) on the commission for foreign affairs and will most probably become the next Republican candidate for the office of President of the USA. So he has every right to question Obama's handling of the Ukraine fiasco.

[Thanato]

Can the Crimea vote for Russian Anexation be legidimate while being occupied by Thousands of Russian Soldiers and while those soldiers are barring outside observers?

[SolarPlexus]

If Kosovo can, I see why not Crimea... OH YEAH.... western double standards

Edited March 9, 2014 by SolarPlexus

[Thanato]

If Kosovo can, I see why not Crimea... OH YEAH.... western double standards

So Kosovo was under total Military occupation by the annexing nation? And was ensuring foreign observers do not enter the nation by the use of force?

[SolarPlexus]

First Russia didn't occupy Crimea, it is allowed to have up to 25000 troops there. Secondly, it was about people's vote, and now western politicians are denying Crimeans this right, but it was ok for Kosovo. Hypocrisy and double standards

Edited March 9, 2014 by SolarPlexus

[Thanato]

First Russia didn't occupy Crimea, it is allowed to have up to 25000 troops there. Secondly, it was about people's vote, and now western politicians are denying Crimeans this right, but it was ok for Kosovo. Hypocrisy and double standards

Yes they are allowed to have 25000 troops along with a number of Military Equipmet on Russian Military Installations in Crimea, however to move forward of those installations they need Kievs approval. Which they do not have, so it is an occupation.

If it is about the peoples vote how come they won't allow outside observers in the Ukrainian territory? To ensure it is a fair vote. That it is a real vote and not fabricated? Right now, no government would recognize the vote if a territory of one nation to be annexed to the nation which occupies it. If Crimeans want to be Russian then let them vote open an transparent with out being occupied by the annexin power.

[Helen of Annoy]

Ahhh... that "HUGE" petition...lol. More like tens of thousands and NOT Hundreds of thousands so take it easy there big guy.

"some locals created a petition signed by tens of thousands telling Russia they didn't need Russian help."

http://www.usatoday....litary/5944179/

The petition of Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainian Russian speakers: https://secure.avaaz.org/ru/petition/Uvazhaemyy_Prezident_Rossiyskoy_Federacii_Vladimir_Vladimirovich_Putin_My_etnicheskie_russkie_i_russkoyazychnye_Ukrainy_/?fKpuLgb&pv=1

140,454 at the moment and if you take a look at the counter, you’ll see people keep signing it.

There’s was one more petition to Putin, this one from Russians in Russia, against repression in Russia:

https://www.amnesty.org/en/news/hundreds-thousands-petition-putin-end-repression-russia-2014-01-31

More than 300,000 people who dared signing such petition.

Because you obviously don't know, so let me tell you that signing a petition might cost you dearly in a repressive regime, which kinda proves the point of such petition... not that I'm hoping you can be reasoned with, I'm just pointing out the obvious.

[+and-then]

"I don't think so.. by and large the EU is dependent on Russian gas and also the competitive price mechanism that it provides to lower the over all energy costs and needs of the EU... Get rid of Russian gas and all of a sudden the price will skyrocket exponentially. But it's not just gas that has the EU's nuts in Russia's hands...

Russia is the largest oil, gas, uranium and coal exporter to the EU. Likewise, the EU is by far the largest trade partner of the Russian Federation."

HD does this statement not also point to a very VULNERABLE situation for Putin/Russia as well?

Obviously the EU would rather not have disruptions in their current agreements but if a teenager with a couple of hundred dollars can start a fire that stops the gas flowing for weeks then how "secure" will it be to keep relying on Russian gas? The very disruption caused by occupation probably has business in Europe starting to look for alternate sources.