Will Russia come to the "aid" of Ukraine?

[stevewinn]

Ukraine is unitary state, not a federation.

There are less legal grounds for diving it than there are such grounds for dividing UK. Think about that.

If Zhirinovsky wants a chunk of Ukraine, he should come personally and try taking it.

Sadly, he is not the only Russian chauvinist that is destroying relations between Ukrainians and Russians for the sake of temporary domination. That is crime that will affect generations of their own and neighbouring nations. So I’m adding my curse on their stupid, traitorous, brother-murdering heads.

Russia sent the clown to test the reactions to the idea of ripping Ukraine apart. That notion is so ridiculous there was no need for such testing, which indicates certain despair in the greater Russian circles. Looks like they expected much milder reaction to their conquests and now, since there’s no way back, they are trying to involve others in their own dirty business. Russia would so love to distribute the shame and loss an attack on neighbouring nation brings. But there are no puppet commie dictators anymore who would kiss Russian behind, not in Poland, not in Hungary, nor in Romania.

I might quote Wesley Clark here, though he spoke regarding Serbian megalomania awaken by recent Russian political psychosis

(translated from Bosnian back to English, I have no English original so I apologize for possible minor differences):

“What we see today in Ukraine reminds of Balkans in the 1990s. It only makes the finishing of the process of democratization of European continent more important. So, it wouldn’t hurt that people are reminded of what they owe to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

...

Those in Europe, in Balkans or in Bosnia and Herzegovina who are longing for Putin, praising his politics, let them go to him. I’m sure he’ll welcome them and it will be so great for them there. They who want Putin, should go to Russia. It’s a big country, Siberia is huge. There’s plenty of space there.”

Amen.

I think your taking the Russian actions at face value. calling the Russian politician a clown for sending the letter. - Its all calculated the Russian politician sending of this letter was pre-planned - knowing full well the Polish government would 'leak' it. the letter was sent to get a reaction. why send thousands of troops to the border when ink and paper at a fraction of the cost will achieve the same panic. The Russians are the masters of the geopolitical chess game and from the outset they've been three moves ahead of the West.

[Helen of Annoy]

I think your taking the Russian actions at face value. calling the Russian politician a clown for sending the letter. - Its all calculated the Russian politician sending of this letter was pre-planned - knowing full well the Polish government would 'leak' it. the letter was sent to get a reaction. why send thousands of troops to the border when ink and paper at a fraction of the cost will achieve the same panic. The Russians are the masters of the geopolitical chess game and from the outset they've been three moves ahead of the West.

I’m not calling Zhirinovsky a clown just because he sent a deranged letter, he’s been building his clown image for decades now. I have no idea what kind of person he really is, but his public appearance, his stage alter-ego is of a clown. Chauvinist clown. Politics today is not much different than entertainment industry. Not to be confused with art.

I agree it was all calculated. But -

I don’t agree on usefulness of that letter. It wasn’t meant to make Poland (or Hungary or Romania) panic, it was meant to test their willingness to take part in an anachronism: expansionist wars.

And it was the most counter-productive thing Russia could do, they basically told everyone they will attempt to distribute the blame and expenses on the neighbourhood, instead of suffering the consequences of their hasty actions alone.

Yes, they counted on the letter being leaked, hoping there will be enough of morbidly nationalist people who would swallow that bait. Here, Poland, here, it’s your good, trustworthy Russia, and she’s dangling a piece of Ukraine in front of your nose... It doesn’t take much knowledge or imagination to guess how shockingly, offensively amusing such bizarre letter was for Poles.

So it’s not chess that Putin plays, it’s tug of war.

If it was chess, he’d know he can roll tanks in, but there will be nothing left of them to roll out. And that’s precisely why no one is panicking about Russians. Nukes? Sure, go ahead, launch them, if you’re immune to radiation or would love to spend last two years of your life in presidential bunker...

If it was chess, Putin would come as a partner (with hidden agenda, everyone has one... or two), not as an intruder.

If it was chess, Putin wouldn’t believe in his own propaganda.

If it was chess, Putin would have patience and would let Ukraine have free and fair elections. Since whole world is in economic trouble, people will be disappointed in the new government, even if angels descend from heavens into offices.

But he has no time for chess. He’s obviously in great hurry to achieve greater Russian empire.

And we know what happens to structures built in a hurry.

[acidhead]

Just curious....

If Russia decided to invade Turkey from the rear would Greece help?

[MordorOrc]

About Moldova... Its just speculation. Anyone who is more or less familiar with world politics knows the main trend in Russian foreign policy since president Putin took the helm - and the word is patience and discipline.

So, invading, seizing and annexing the territory of a sovereign state is a show of patience or discipline?

While NATO, US, and their EU partners are spreading destruction across the globe.

Because countries like Luxembourg are the shining example of international state-sponsored terrorism.

Russia is self-centered, is unaggressive and has maintained a marginal but neutral and cooperative (you could say elegant) stance in regards to their western partners.

By "un-aggressive", you mean having participated in two civil wars and three invasions of other countries? You mean not having invaded and occupied the sovereign territories of three countries?

So this takeover of Moldova's republic aint gonna happen any time soon.

It can't. Transinistria is cut off and isolated and

Even if they'd vote on a referendum to become a part of Russia Putin would never allow it, he is too disciplined and treading very carefully unlike US and NATO who are apparently eager for bloodshed.

I'm not sure you understand what "treading very carefully" means in English, but a statesman who is "treading very carefully" doesn't invade a sovereign state, occupy and annex its territory and then introduces sanctions against the countries that condemned its actions.

All statements in the UN by Russian officials have been clean as a whistle and you'd be pushed hard to find any speck in that.

What statements?

The Duma processes related to Crimea's referendum have been swift, efficient and transparent to the whole world.

Well, that's quite clearly BS, seeing as international observers were kicked out of the Crimea at gunpoint and the Crimean president said that it was to prevent "negative influences". Because apparently people sent there to ensure the democratic process as fair and transparent are going to "negatively influence" (i.e prevent vote rigging) an election.

I mean, it is becoming increasingly difficulty to criticize Russia foreign policy with any merit.

It's actually fairly easy. Just because you don't have the nuance to bother to criticize governments for whatever idiotic reasons you have doesn't mean that Russia's foreign policy cannot be criticized. Especially in recent weeks regarding it's handling of the Crimean crisis.

This whole mess in Ukraine has vilified Russia in the west, but this is fooling less and less people.

And you can make this assertion how? The Ukraine is a mess. Russia made it more of a mess.

Not only in Russia, where Putin's popularity in record high, but in Germany (a country which , in a way, carries the whole Europe on its back) recent study shows that 60% think Crimea should become Russia, and 54% have expressed support towards president Putin.

Oh really? I'd love to see you back this up with this sources.

In the current state of things , which is the re-emergence of Russia, the west played a big part because by having sunk so low, they have elevated Russian position morally.

Sunk so low? Russia elevated morally? Maybe we should take a look at Russian domestic policy and see where this leaves Russia and "the West" morally.

Oh, look. Russia makes it a crime to even speak to "minors" about homosexuality. Meanwhile, in the same year, New Zealand, one of the hive-minds of the Western world and one of the world's worst human rights violators, granted gay couples the ability to marry and adopt children.

Yeah, Russia is clearly the moral one here. /sarcasm

Russians aint gonna start grabbing land frantically all of a sudden, but , in time , as they solve problems at home, they'll surely become more opportunistic due to this moral decline present in western foreign policy.

So, it's OK to break and violate international law if you are a Slav or other Slavic country saving your particular ethnic group from phantom "Nazis"? OK, whatever floats your boat Milosevic.

[stevewinn]

Just curious....

If Russia decided to invade Turkey from the rear would Greece help?

Being a NATO member i think it would trigger article 5, Turkey as the biggest army in the middle east and is the second biggest in NATO and has one of the best air defences of any country. Russia wouldn't dare.

NEWS seems to have gone quiet on the Eastern Front.

[acidhead]

Being a NATO member i think it would trigger article 5, Turkey as the biggest army in the middle east and is the second biggest in NATO and has one of the best air defences of any country. Russia wouldn't dare.

NEWS seems to have gone quiet on the Eastern Front.

It was a joke Steve!

[spud the mackem]

It was a joke Steve!

Hi Buddy,have you heard of an island called Cyprus in the Med Sea. Well half this island belongs to Greece and half to Turkey, and they have been quarrelling over it since the times of Achilles, and they regularly have border skirmishes NATO allies or not its hereditary.

[MordorOrc]

Cyprus is an independent state...

[stevewinn]

It was a joke Steve!

It went completely over my head. and having re-read it im still not getting it.

[SolarPlexus]

Well Greece is up to neck in shiet , and its an unlikely scenario, almost fantasy xD

[+and-then]

SacEur says Russia has staged enough of all the right units to run through Ukraine in 3-5 days. If they do it they will be burying men for as long as they leave them in Ukraine. You'd think they could look at the mess we in the US have been in in Afghanistan and Iraq and want to avoid starting their own insurgencies in Ukraine.

[Mr.United_Nations]

anyone on sky news reporting about airspace closed over Crimea?

[SolarPlexus]

SacEur says Russia has staged enough of all the right units to run through Ukraine in 3-5 days. If they do it they will be burying men for as long as they leave them in Ukraine. You'd think they could look at the mess we in the US have been in in Afghanistan and Iraq and want to avoid starting their own insurgencies in Ukraine.

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

Edited April 3, 2014 by SolarPlexus

[stevewinn]

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

i wouldn't call it a retreat, 13 years is one hell of a retreat if it was.

Im not so sure about Russian foreign policy. if they were the sole remaining super power like the USA as been, it raises interesting possibilities. because that means the soviet union wouldn't have collapsed and Russia would have had 23 years of unrivalled status of being the worlds only super power. im sure they'd have had global ambitions.

[stevewinn]

anyone on sky news reporting about airspace closed over Crimea?

i haven't seen this reported anywhere. what i have seen is - Russia as increased Ukraine's Gas prices by 80% though it sounds a lot, in fact all it means is Ukraine will now pay the going rate like everyone else. because Russia gave Ukraine a discount on gas for leasing bases in Crimea, seeing that Crimea is now Russian they no longer have to give them the discount for leasing land. but still highlights the way in which energy will be used as a weapon in a country (Ukraine) with a collapsing economy.

[Mikko-kun]

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

But doesn't the Afghan opium contribute major bucks to US economy?

[Thanato]

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

Well it was a 10 year war, with Over 14,000 Killed and 53,000 wounded. The USSR Paid a much higher price in Afghanistan then we have.

[Helen of Annoy]

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

Jesus, kid, why are you posting if you have no idea of the topic?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan

Essentially:

The initial Soviet deployment of the 40th Army in Afghanistan began on December 24, 1979, under Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.^[27] The final troop withdrawal started on May 15, 1988, and ended on February 15, 1989, under the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. Due to the interminable nature of the war, the conflict in Afghanistan has sometimes been referred to as the "Soviet Union'sVietnam War" or the "Bear Trap".^[28][29][30]

Irony fest:

Duma member Semyon Bagdasarov (Just Russia) advocated that Russia had to reject Western calls for stronger assistance to the US-led ISAF-coalition in Afghanistan and also had to establish contacts with the "anti-Western forces"; theTaliban, in case they regain power.^[159][160]

And a fun fact, because that’s how you make kids learn history:

Afghans still prefer Russian weapons, they like it because it’s simple, durable and they are used to it. They even know how to fly Russian helicopters, because that’s what Russia accidentally gifted them while hitting the wall.

i haven't seen this reported anywhere. what i have seen is - Russia as increased Ukraine's Gas prices by 80% though it sounds a lot, in fact all it means is Ukraine will now pay the going rate like everyone else. because Russia gave Ukraine a discount on gas for leasing bases in Crimea, seeing that Crimea is now Russian they no longer have to give them the discount for leasing land. but still highlights the way in which energy will be used as a weapon in a country (Ukraine) with a collapsing economy.

Oh, but Russian cunning plan has a tiny fault... as usual.

Ukraine is broke. Russia can charge 800% more if they wish. Since Putin can’t calm down and retreat now, after he made grave mistake of setting off nationalist frenzy in Russia, he’ll keep making aggressive moves until real sanctions are applied.

It means gas won’t be bought and paid by countries that actually can pay for it.

Russia will be stuck with their unsold gas, Ukraine with huge gas bill that – much like debts blown out of any proportion by turbo-greedy banks – never can be collected because it will soon bloat out of any sane financial proportion.

That’s how you saw the branch you’re sitting on. Or pipeline your economy is sitting on.

Ukraine, already ripped off by Russian puppets, has nothing to lose. Russia has everything to lose.

[Helen of Annoy]

But doesn't the Afghan opium contribute major bucks to US economy?

And what do you think Russia was doing there?

Preaching Marxism to Pashtun?

[SolarPlexus]

The USSR Paid a much higher price in Afghanistan then we have.

good joke , gave me a nice laugh I needed

Edited April 3, 2014 by SolarPlexus

[+and-then]

Except that Russians are not stupid or power hungry like the US foreign policy ... As soon as they hit a wall in Afghanistan they retreated ..... Smart US has stayed for 10 years losing man every day (and many more commiting suicide)

You obviously know nothing of warfare, go back to Call of Duty

Russia stayed 9 years troll... took me 10 seconds to Google it. You're an insolent slowcoach - begone!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan

[DarkHunter]

good joke , gave me a nice laugh I needed

In Afghanistan in 9 years of fighting they had 14,453 killed, 53,753 wounded, and 265 missing. If you want to add afghan forces that fought for the USSR it brings the death toll to 32,453.

While the coalition in comparison in 13 years of fighting had 3,424 killed or 4,567 killed if you count contractors, 23,500 wounded or 38,500 wounded if contractors are added, If you add the afghan forces that fought for the coalition it brings the death toll to 14,853.

I could not find how much money it cost the Soviets to be in Afghanistan for 9 years but maybe you can explain how you think the Soviets didn't pay a higher toll then the coalition.

Just to throw one more statistic out there, when the Soviets where fighting in Afghanistan 850,000 to 1,500,000 civilians where killed compared to the coalition 16,725 to 19,013 killed.

[Sir Smoke aLot]

Today Afghanistan... Product of US and Soviet 'war' for influence. We cannot just look at statistics and nowdays happenings. After soviets signed friendship threaty with newly formed country it was mr. Jimmy Carter who directly backed soviet opponents in Kabul, rest is history. I do not try to justify anyone, its just that every 'foreign interference' in any country internal affairs results in decades of struggle and problems for people in that country. As for Afghanistan, struggle never ends it seems. Same ****, pardon my language, that we vitness day by day all over the world.

[Frank Merton]

If Russia were to invade Turkey I have no reason to doubt, in spite of Cyprus and history and all that, that the Greeks would meet their obligations and go to war with the rest of NATO in Turkey's defense, not that Turkey would need all that much help.

[Mr.United_Nations]

i wouldn't call it a retreat, 13 years is one hell of a retreat if it was.

Im not so sure about Russian foreign policy. if they were the sole remaining super power like the USA as been, it raises interesting possibilities. because that means the soviet union wouldn't have collapsed and Russia would have had 23 years of unrivalled status of being the worlds only super power. im sure they'd have had global ambitions.

the policy is...if you speak Russian, you will join Russia. heck they would accept penguins if they spoke Russian