Islamic State in the Levant Advances

[+and-then]

Someone's playing with your preprogrammed preconceptions there. Someones leading you by the nose to accept a major conflagration in the Middle East - and your falling right into their trap.

There playing you like a fiddle.

Br Cornelius

Someone? Who might that be Br? As to accepting, since when did any of us have the power to stop it, or do you know of some means the rest of us are unaware of? You seem to be implying that the PTB are using religious faith to justify or disguise a war that has been planned for the benefit of someone. In the end, what does it matter - even if you are correct? War is war - and if it happens as predicted it really doesn't matter WHY it happened to the dead, now does it?

[RavenHawk]

Strikes me as largely a waste of time and a job-making sinecure for incompetent military officers. When the situation actually arises it will never be as planned.

It never does go as planned. As the saying goes, you can throw the playbook right out the window when the first shot is fired. But it isn’t a waste of time because you still need to plan and learn from failures to gain the experience to avoid obvious issues in the future. It’s all in how you deal with adversity. How you adapt and overcome.

[RavenHawk]

If people are "bashing" you for being a neocon you're bashing other people for being a socialist. They're just political labels. If you think they're insults when they're used on you, you must be insulting others when you use labels on them.

I’m not worried about people bashing me, I just return in kind and rub your nose in it. Besides this comment was just a general statement. Do I use *Socialist* to describe people? Yes I do, but I don’t do it to insult others like you do. I’m not a neocon, a liberal, or a disgusting Jew-lover, and I don’t remember what all you call me. You use Zionist like the *N* word. For you they are more than political labels, they are weapons and you using them just make you a bore and a troll.

[Guest]

Someone? Who might that be Br? As to accepting, since when did any of us have the power to stop it, or do you know of some means the rest of us are unaware of? You seem to be implying that the PTB are using religious faith to justify or disguise a war that has been planned for the benefit of someone. In the end, what does it matter - even if you are correct? War is war - and if it happens as predicted it really doesn't matter WHY it happened to the dead, now does it?

It matters because to yuse myths to manipulate public perceptions is part of facilitating a war which might not otherwise happen. Its the war cry of the Christian fundamentalists that this is inevitable and good so we should do little to avoid it. A self for-filling prophecy.Its a form propaganda.

Br Cornelius

[+and-then]

It matters because to yuse myths to manipulate public perceptions is part of facilitating a war which might not otherwise happen. Its the war cry of the Christian fundamentalists that this is inevitable and good so we should do little to avoid it. A self for-filling prophecy.Its a form propaganda.

Br Cornelius

I see. Considering that I can't get my dog to listen to me usually, I think you've not much to worry about on that score. The wars I speak of are not going to be started in the west Br. A western pol might be in the mix but they begin because of the passions in the M.E. and arise due to hatred of the Jew. If you'd like to whine about that being the fault of Christianity then sally forth. As I said, no one much cares anyway.

[Phaeton80]

The wars I speak of are not going to be started in the west Br. A western pol might be in the mix but they begin because of the passions in the M.E. and arise due to hatred of the Jew.

Oh for G*dsake man. Are you serious?

[Border Collie]

Funny sort of thread, this. Funny Peculiar not Funny HaHa.

[Deleted]

The U.S. made thr Taliban the U.S. supported ISIS agaisnt Syria. I dont understand it actually. It is clear that the plan was to secure oilplants and other recources in iraq, but how do the U.S. want to defend these plants and their economic interests there, or did they allready got what they wanted and now abondon the sinking ship. If they would have had a real plan like the marshal plan and rebuilt iraq then this would not have happened.... all I see is the consequene of failed u.s. foreign politics endangering europe asia and africa, and the one who really will suffer the conquences is europe and africa..... since this caliphate is not just a threat to the people there (massmurder etc) but also a threat to europe and they declared war on the whole world. Sadam never was a threat, but these peopel are, if they really built a structure and get their hands on the bombs in Iraq and Syria then it will be a real mess... .... Cause they dont have respect for either their own life nor for the life of others.

Edited July 2, 2014 by hellwyr

[+and-then]

Oh for G*dsake man. Are you serious?

Never more so in my life. ANY conflict in the M.E. ALWAYS gets back to Muslim versus Jew. Do you deny this? It may not be a rational connection but that doesn't matter. The connection is always made and eventually it is Israel that is blamed for everything - you see it right here among the wits of UM daily. The final war on this planet will begin there and end there but the rest of the globe will be trashed because of it. But ignore me, I'm just an insane zealot. Sheesh....

[Guest]

ANY conflict in the M.E. ALWAYS gets back to Muslim versus Jew.

Absolutely I would deny that, Iran vs Iraq, Iraq vs Kuwait, Turkey vs Kurds. Need I go on to prove your statement utterly wrong.

But ignore me, I'm just an insane zealot.

You just realized - there is hope after all.

Your mind is one messed up place there.

Br Cornelius

[+and-then]

Absolutely I would deny that, Iran vs Iraq, Iraq vs Kuwait, Turkey vs Kurds. Need I go on to prove your statement utterly wrong.

You just realized - there is hope after all.

Your mind is one messed up place there.

Br Cornelius

And you sir are a rude, nasty individual. You, with the possible exception of the Kurdish issue have simply pointed to inter Muslim conflict. That is between BROTHERS. When a Jew enters the fray they join forces. Ignore it if you like and swell your own head with grandiosity if you like but bottom line is that you - and unfortunately most Irish I'm disturbed to say have become nasty shills for anyone who hate the Jews. You disgust me as much as I you. Edited July 2, 2014 by and then

[RavenHawk]

Never more so in my life. ANY conflict in the M.E. ALWAYS gets back to Muslim versus Jew. Do you deny this? It may not be a rational connection but that doesn't matter. The connection is always made and eventually it is Israel that is blamed for everything - you see it right here among the wits of UM daily. The final war on this planet will begin there and end there but the rest of the globe will be trashed because of it. But ignore me, I'm just an insane zealot. Sheesh....

I didn't know Bush was Jewish??

[DeWitz]

My original post was not intended to stir any pot nor to surface not-so-hidden animosities. Some of the feelings displayed here are palpable, even visceral. My interest remains in assessing the actual threat from what is now the self-named "Islamic State" and its intended multi-regional sphere of power or influence. I don't trust any of the information coming in about the jihadists of "The Islamic State' from east or west, from mainstream media to some marginal sources. I think we need competing assessments of this movement.

By an in-gathering of whatever information is out there, perhaps we can all better prepare a response to this unique new player in the Islamic realm (even "realm" is misleading in that it implies more unity and authority than I think The Islamic State has thus far consolidated).

[RavenHawk]

Your mind is one messed up place there.

Well, if his is the messed up one, then yours is the most perfect. But then that is in your opinion because I find and then as a rational, honest person. you on the other hand...not so much. So this is a comparison scale that both of you occupy but at opposite ends.

[Yamato]

Gotta keep the Muslim vs Jew narrative flowing. That's Zionist Job #1. It's critical to keep the status quo we love to complain about in place. Can you say cognitive dissonance?

[Frank Merton]

It doesn't seem to me to be a Muslim/Jew narrative but purely a Muslim narrative and their hostility to anyone with different beliefs, including murdering them if they can get away with it, including other Muslims.

[+and-then]

My original post was not intended to stir any pot nor to surface not-so-hidden animosities. Some of the feelings displayed here are palpable, even visceral. My interest remains in assessing the actual threat from what is now the self-named "Islamic State" and its intended multi-regional sphere of power or influence. I don't trust any of the information coming in about the jihadists of "The Islamic State' from east or west, from mainstream media to some marginal sources. I think we need competing assessments of this movement.

By an in-gathering of whatever information is out there, perhaps we can all better prepare a response to this unique new player in the Islamic realm (even "realm" is misleading in that it implies more unity and authority than I think The Islamic State has thus far consolidated).

There will be no further derailing from me - that issue has been set aside with the "ignore" function I realize that eschatology isn't the focus of your investigation either but it does offer a glimpse at what al Baghdadi is trying to use to achieve a power base. Both major branches of Islam have an eschatology that includes a return of the Caliphate - a Muslim world government that uses sharia to govern the planet. There are a huge number of Muslims who believe in this as fervently as I believe in the return of Jesus in the not so distant future. If someone like Baghdadi can capture the imagination of even a substantial fraction of these believers he might set something in motion that is difficult to defuse. I don't believe he has the power currently to do such a thing but one can never foresee all ends and his successes so far have been shrewdly achieved. As the region becomes more destabilized it might give him the energy he needs to start a pretty big fire.

[+and-then]

It doesn't seem to me to be a Muslim/Jew narrative but purely a Muslim narrative and their hostility to anyone with different beliefs, including murdering them if they can get away with it, including other Muslims.

As I said earlier, this fight is between brothers and the ape was correct about that. My point was not that THIS specific conflict involves Jews. The Sunni Shia schism has been ongoing since Muhammad assumed room temperature. They will be cheerfully destroying one another going forward as well BUT if Israel is pulled into this conflict to say, defend the Hashemite Kingdom - and that is a big if, I know - you can bet that if the sides don't join forces to try to destroy the Jews they will at the least attack Israel each in his own way. Actually Baghdadi has shown himself to be either very lucky or very shrewd up to this point so he may well attempt to avoid just such a situation for now. He surely knows his forces would be quickly destroyed by the IDF. OTOH it might be worth it if he can rouse the righteous anger of the rest of the "Caliphate" to his cause. If his forces truly are fewer than 10,000 then he'd probably be better served to entrench and consolidate than to keep pushing.

[Frank Merton]

I would think if they attack Jordan that would bring in Europe and the States and the Saudis and Israel could quietly do what it could behind the scenes, such as providing intelligence and not interfering with overflights.

[+and-then]

I would think if they attack Jordan that would bring in Europe and the States and the Saudis and Israel could quietly do what it could behind the scenes, such as providing intelligence and not interfering with overflights.

Possibly, I guess, but I can't really see Europe coming to the aid of a state that has no oil. Obama is grasping at any bit of cover for his political legacy and desperately wants to avoid any new entanglements. But the reason I mention Israel is that Hussein has already put out a request for any help available from the US and Israel if his country is attacked by ISIS.

[RavenHawk]

coming to the aid of a state that has no oil.

That's an interesting perspective. I still think that Saudi is backing ISIS. I just don't know if it is the Sauds or the Wahhabists that are doing it? But given that fact that Saudi Arabia like all the Other oil producers in the ME, are running out of sweet crude. They are going to have to develop cracking and somebody probably knows that rich deposits of oil shale is under Jordan. ISIS is just meant as a means to chase Jordan into the arms of the Saudis?? This is one of the oldest reason to land grab.

[Yamato]

It doesn't seem to me to be a Muslim/Jew narrative but purely a Muslim narrative and their hostility to anyone with different beliefs, including murdering them if they can get away with it, including other Muslims.

Including whoever is over there that's killing them. Vietnam isn't over there and I don't see the hostility towards Vietnam sorry.

[Harry_Dresden]

Possibly, I guess, but I can't really see Europe coming to the aid of a state that has no oil. Obama is grasping at any bit of cover for his political legacy and desperately wants to avoid any new entanglements. But the reason I mention Israel is that Hussein has already put out a request for any help available from the US and Israel if his country is attacked by ISIS.

Normally the West wouldn't be bothered with a dirt poor Middle Eastern nation but Jordan is an Israeli buffer state and moderate, so not just in Americas interest but also the Saudis to look the other way so the Israelis can militarily prop up. War and politics make for strange bed fellows.

[Harry_Dresden]

That's an interesting perspective. I still think that Saudi is backing ISIS. I just don't know if it is the Sauds or the Wahhabists that are doing it? But given that fact that Saudi Arabia like all the Other oil producers in the ME, are running out of sweet crude. They are going to have to develop cracking and somebody probably knows that rich deposits of oil shale is under Jordan. ISIS is just meant as a means to chase Jordan into the arms of the Saudis?? This is one of the oldest reason to land grab.

The ISIS waters are so muddied that it's hard to say what's going on. But to assume that they are operating without a powerful benefactor is plain madness.

[RoofGardener]

Again, I don't think Jordan needs help to combat ISIS. If it is putting out diplomatic feelers for assistance, then that is probably just a precaution.

ISIS has only had success (so far) when they operate in a mixture of (1) A Sunni majority region, and (2) against a weak, unpopular central government, and (3) against a demoralised, disorganised security service with limited loyalty to the regime.

Jordan has a well-paid, professional armed services, with good training, good equipment, high morale, and solid loyalty. They even have a specialised anti-insurrection Special Forces section, created in the aftermath of the PLO revolution attempt. They have a reasonably well integrated army/air-force capable of combined operations. They have a decent intelligence service. They have fairly modern battlefield communications systems, and are highly mobile with a mixture of transport aircraft, helicopters, and a wide range of desert-capable ground equipment. (including over 1000 armoured personnel carriers. Heck, they even have air-mobile field hospitals.

ISIS has never encountered hostile tanks, or even mechanised infantry. They have never encountered hostile professional artillery. They have never encountered minefields, or ground-attack helicopters. They have never encountered air-mobile troops, which can circle around them and land behind them, guided by air-reconnaisance. They have never encountered troops capable of integrated manoeuvre at Brigade - or even divisional - level. They have never encountered professional, motivated infantry with interlocking heavy-machine-gun fire, forward air controllers, forward artillary controllers, snipers, and all the helfire capabilities of a modern integrated armed services.

and they have never operated against a hostile civilian population.

ISIS would be utterly massacred if they attacked.