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DeWitz

Islamic State in the Levant Advances

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Frank Merton

Jordan is a well-governed autocracy; just the sort that the Middle East needs. Egypt and Syria had similar regimes, although of course they were not performing well economically so change was needed (the bureaucracies were ingrained and would not let light in).

The Saudi's do have an interesting dilemma; support their religious brothers who would love to murder the entire royal family or support an Iraq that will line up with Iran. I think how they go will depend on the details of what happens from here out.

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RoofGardener

ACtually, there is ONE fly in the Jordanian Ointment that I had overlooked.... the Palestinians.

Apparently they constitute over half of the population. They do NOT hold the Hashemite Bedouins (the ruling ethnic group) in high regard... indeed some see them as invaders, who stole "Palestinian" land.

Yup.. "The Moan" is alive and well, east of the Jordan River.

Now, if ISIS where to try and tap into that resentment, and trigger a Palestinian revolt, then it could cause problems. Jordan can hardly evict 4,000,000 palestinians. I mean.. where would they GO ? In addition, Palestinians do most of the actual WORK in Jordan. (as well as most of the moaning).

On the other hand, the Jordanians have experience of revolting palestinians; they put down the PLO revolt in 1970, and that was before they had their shiny new special forces anti-insurrection brigade.

Not sure where that leave us.

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Frank Merton

I don't know that the Palestinians in Jordan are that unhappy with the situation there. Time passes and lives improve and people settle in and get mixed and stop feeling sorry for themselves and start doing something constructive. At least I would hope. The Palestinians elsewhere are getting nowhere and they should one day begin to realize this.

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