Pound falls as Yes vote strengths.

[Guest]

Yet this chronic imbalance in the UK’s international trade is there even with North Sea oil revenues. These are, for now, substantial. In 2013, the UK sold £39.3bn worth of oil to the rest of the world.

..........

It is not due to Scotland leaving that a “sterling crisis” may threaten. It is due to the UK’s economic problems. Cumulatively, between falling incomes and rising debts, these mean we are already “one shock away from a further crisis.” Whether it was Eurozone stagnation, Scottish independence, or own property bubble collapsing, this is an economy almost designed to fail – at some point, and from some cause.

The City clearly believes Scotland is necessary to prop up the economic status quo. But this isn’t just a question of yes or no – the Scottish referendum is an opportunity for the whole UK to force open a debate about our hideously imbalanced economy: its failure to create decent jobs, its hopeless dependency on debt, and above all the damaging impact of the City of London.

http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/scottish-independence-uk-dependency

As we have all suspected the UK economy is a basket case, unbalanced by the financial sector, and it is only the revenues from North Sea Oil masking the chronic imbalances. Take away Scotland and the game is up - and the city knows this.

Br Cornelius

[Space Commander Travis]

I expect joining the Euro would help.

[Guest]

I expect joining the Euro would help.

Your joking right ?

The Euro has its own problems.

Its the structural problems of the UK economy which have been masked by N.Sea oil for 40years which are at issue here. All of the governments for nearly a half century have failed to address what really ails the British economy.

Br Cornelius

[itsnotoutthere]

5 Reasons Why Scottish Independence Would Be An Economic Disaster

Speaking as a Scot who lives in England, I have divided loyalties in this debate.

But speaking as an economic commentator, I am amazed at the naivety and short sightedness of the Scottish National Party (SNP). Here’s 5 reasons why.

http://www.forbes.co...nomic-disaster/

Edited September 7, 2014 by Saru
Trimmed for length - please do not copy and paste entire articles

[Duke Wellington]

http://www.neweconom...e-uk-dependency

As we have all suspected the UK economy is a basket case, unbalanced by the financial sector, and it is only the revenues from North Sea Oil masking the chronic imbalances. Take away Scotland and the game is up - and the city knows this.

Br Cornelius

Send the tanks!

[itsnotoutthere]

http://www.neweconom...e-uk-dependency

As we have all suspected the UK economy is a basket case, unbalanced by the financial sector, and it is only the revenues from North Sea Oil masking the chronic imbalances. Take away Scotland and the game is up - and the city knows this.

Br Cornelius

Yes, well that's the sort of thing you'd expect a left wing 'think tank' to say. Personally I'm all in favour of the Scots voting to go it alone, & I think it'll be most beneficial to the English tax payers in the long run.

p.s. from the link above (from a scottish economist) :-

The SNP’s main economic platform is that Scotland should own the revenue from North Sea oil and gas, making it a petro-dollar paradise equivalent to Norway. Although they have similar populations (5.05 million for Norway, 5.3 million for Scotland), the hydrocarbon revenues are massively different. Norway’s government gathered $40 billion in 2013 (according to the BBC) while the UK made $10.8 billion (according to the Financial Times), a fall of 40 per cent from 2012. Current predictions? Further falls, to £3.3 billion ($5.5 billion) in 2016/17, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

There’s no amount of careful stewardship that is going to magic $5.5 billion into $40 billion, when many of the North Sea rigs are at the end of their life and production levels are falling.

Edited September 7, 2014 by itsnotoutthere

[stevewinn]

The United Kingdom's economy is built on strong foundations. that have stood the test of time. As for Scotland and North Sea Oil and revenue. Do people honestly think that if the YES vote win that overnight the the oil fields and revenue will belong solely to Scotland alone? the Whole of the United Kingdom invested and contributed towards North Sea Oil, billions of pounds in infrastructure and investment. The remaining United Kingdom will want a return on its investment. So if people think Scotland will be allowed to cream off 100% of the profits is mistaken. and lets remind ourselves. even if we have a YES vote in Scotland - the Parliament of United Kingdom will accept the referendum result but still has to vote on accepting terms for Independence and Independence isn't granted until that happens.

For the Record: My colours are firmly nailed to the Mast. I want Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom. 307 years of History and Tradition. Our place in the world ain't to shabby either. - I'd want to keep Scotland part of the Union even if they went bankrupt and we had to bankroll them. because i believe you don't do the dirt on your Family and come hell or high water, in good times and bad we stick together - We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided, - Scotland is our Family along with Wales, Northern Ireland and lets pray it continues for another Three Hundred and Seven years.

[itsnotoutthere]

Your joking right ?

The Euro has its own problems.

Its the structural problems of the UK economy which have been masked by N.Sea oil for 40years which are at issue here. All of the governments for nearly a half century have failed to address what really ails the British economy.

Br Cornelius

'The Euro has it's problems' & yet the UK is a 'basket case economy' And yet we still have the sixth largest ecomomy in the world!

You are priceless & shall we say somewhat partisan.

[Guest]

'The Euro has it's problems' & yet the UK is a 'basket case economy' And yet we still have the sixth largest ecomomy in the world!

You are priceless & shall we say somewhat partisan.

The opening article shows how that contradiction can exist. If money flows through the city it can support GDP whilst still destroying the real economy.

GDP is a poor indicator of economic health since it fails to show the effects of financial liabilities and vulnerabilities within the city.

Br Cornelius

[itsnotoutthere]

The opening article shows how that contradiction can exist. If money flows through the city it can support GDP whilst still destroying the real economy.

GDP is a poor indicator of economic health since it fails to show the effects of financial liabilities and vulnerabilities within the city.

Br Cornelius

In which case somebody should inform America, China, japan & India, as they all come before us.

[bee]

.

I don't want Scotland to break away from the Union....

We are a family of nations...literally...as many of us have a mixed genetic background..

I myself have English, Welsh and Scottish.....

I really hope there is a 'no' vote. I think it's going to be close...

.

[Duke Wellington]

.

I don't want Scotland to break away from the Union....

We are a family of nations...literally...as many of us have a mixed genetic background..

I myself have English, Welsh and Scottish.....

I really hope there is a 'no' vote. I think it's going to be close...

.

I predict civil war will follow regardless of the outcome of the vote. The reason being is some Scots are strongly in favour of the Union and some for independance. Scotland will be the next Ukraine

[Guest]

I predict civil war will follow regardless of the outcome of the vote. The reason being is some Scots are strongly in favour of the Union and some for independance. Scotland will be the next Ukraine

Thats rather hysterical.

There are plenty of examples where this never happened.

Br Cornelius

[bee]

I predict civil war will follow regardless of the outcome of the vote. The reason being is some Scots are strongly in favour of the Union and some for independance. Scotland will be the next Ukraine

[Border Collie]

I predict civil war will follow regardless of the outcome of the vote. The reason being is some Scots are strongly in favour of the Union and some for independance. Scotland will be the next Ukraine

I assume this is some sort of joke? Because if it isn't, it is utter BS. Have you even been to Scotland?

[Space Commander Travis]

The United Kingdom's economy is built on strong foundations. that have stood the test of time. As for Scotland and North Sea Oil and revenue. Do people honestly think that if the YES vote win that overnight the the oil fields and revenue will belong solely to Scotland alone? the Whole of the United Kingdom invested and contributed towards North Sea Oil, billions of pounds in infrastructure and investment. The remaining United Kingdom will want a return on its investment. So if people think Scotland will be allowed to cream off 100% of the profits is mistaken. and lets remind ourselves. even if we have a YES vote in Scotland - the Parliament of United Kingdom will accept the referendum result but still has to vote on accepting terms for Independence and Independence isn't granted until that happens.

For the Record: My colours are firmly nailed to the Mast. I want Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom. 307 years of History and Tradition. Our place in the world ain't to shabby either. - I'd want to keep Scotland part of the Union even if they went bankrupt and we had to bankroll them. because i believe you don't do the dirt on your Family and come hell or high water, in good times and bad we stick together - We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided, - Scotland is our Family along with Wales, Northern Ireland and lets pray it continues for another Three Hundred and Seven years.

How far do, or would, Scottish waters extend? As far as the oilfields? So how does Alex S. assume that he'd automatically have the rights to it all? Just because it's at the moment brought ashore in Scotland automatically makes it Scottish? It's exactly this kind of naivety and assumptions that he'll just be able to label everything that happens to be associated with Scotland as "Scottish" that makes it very difficult to take him seriously.

Not that many politicians can be taken seriously, of course.

[Duke Wellington]

How far do, or would, Scottish waters extend? As far as the oilfields? So how does Alex S. assume that he'd automatically have the rights to it all? Just because it's at the moment brought ashore in Scotland automatically makes it Scottish? It's exactly this kind of naivety and assumptions that he'll just be able to label everything that happens to be associated with Scotland as "Scottish" that makes it very difficult to take him seriously.

Not that many politicians can be taken seriously, of course.

Britain: You can't use the pound if you declare independance.

Scotland: If you don't let us use the pound we won't pay our share of the national debt.

Britain: If you don't take your share of the debt we will take 70% of the oil.

.......

Before you know it we're at war. Funnily enough Nostradamus predicted we would have to flood the Channel Tunnel to stop European armies getting here. I bet it will be Scotland + EU vs Britain. Oh well at least the eagle will have awaken, its taken long enough.

Edited September 7, 2014 by RabidMongoose

[TSS]

How far do, or would, Scottish waters extend? As far as the oilfields? So how does Alex S. assume that he'd automatically have the rights to it all? Just because it's at the moment brought ashore in Scotland automatically makes it Scottish? It's exactly this kind of naivety and assumptions that he'll just be able to label everything that happens to be associated with Scotland as "Scottish" that makes it very difficult to take him seriously.

Not that many politicians can be taken seriously, of course.

A deal would have to be done using something called the Median Line. We used it with Norway, and we've used it with fisheries too. It's not a static line from the outset....so after what would probably be a lot of arguing, it would eventually probably boil down to a line that equates to 50/50....possibly 55/45 in favour of Scotland so Salmond can stroke his ego and everyone else can get on with things. The rest of the UK has other oil interests anyway....i'm not aware that Scotland has, so that is pretty much all they'll have, and even optimistic estimates put the reserves at 40yrs anyway, after that god knows what they'll do because they don't have the infastructure or technology for the real difficult deep sea drilling to continue extracting after 40yrs.....(well not yet anyway).

[Guest]

A deal would have to be done using something called the Median Line. We used it with Norway, and we've used it with fisheries too. It's not a static line from the outset....so after what would probably be a lot of arguing, it would eventually probably boil down to a line that equates to 50/50....possibly 55/45 in favour of Scotland so Salmond can stroke his ego and everyone else can get on with things. The rest of the UK has other oil interests anyway....i'm not aware that Scotland has, so that is pretty much all they'll have, and even optimistic estimates put the reserves at 40yrs anyway, after that god knows what they'll do because they don't have the infastructure or technology for the real difficult deep sea drilling to continue extracting after 40yrs.....(well not yet anyway).

They will do it in the same way as every other country does it - they will approach Shell or BP or Statoil. Just about the only country which has a truly nationalized oil company is Norway so its not unprecedented for them to simply call the experts.

Br Cornelius

[TSS]

They will do it in the same way as every other country does it - they will approach Shell or BP or Statoil. Just about the only country which has a truly nationalized oil company is Norway so its not unprecedented for them to simply call the experts.

Br Cornelius

Approach them with what? The companies that hold the licenses for those fields will continue to hold them...it will be divided up as it would under the UN convention on laws of the sea. If Scotland becomes independent they can't just draw their own lines in the sea, and not negotiate with the current government taking tax off those rigs. it doesn't work like that.

Edit - deleted wrong word.

Edited September 7, 2014 by The Sky Scanner

[Guest]

Approach them with what? The companies that hold the licenses for those fields will continue to hold them...it will be divided up as it would under the UN convention on laws of the sea. If Scotland becomes independent they can't just draw their own lines in the sea, and not negotiate with the current government taking tax off those rigs. it doesn't work like that.

Edit - deleted wrong word.

The point is, - there is no technical reason why Scotland could not access deeper reserves by simply approaching a company with the expertise. Scotland is in no different position than the UK who equally would approach the same companies to access the same deep water oil reserves. Your assertion that Scotland would be technically unable to access its oil is just rubbish.

Br Cornelius

[TSS]

The point is, - there is no technical reason why Scotland could not access deeper reserves by simply approaching a company with the expertise. Scotland is in no different position than the UK who equally would approach the same companies to access the same deep water oil reserves. Your assertion that Scotland would be technically unable to access its oil is just rubbish.

Br Cornelius

I didn't say the UK could and Scotland couldn't. Are you having another one of your "reading what you want to read" moments again. I said I don't know what they will do in 40yrs because there is no gaurantees, the north sea is difficult enough...the expertise might be there at the time, but it still might not be financially viable anyway.

Edited September 7, 2014 by The Sky Scanner

[+and-then]

'The Euro has it's problems' & yet the UK is a 'basket case economy' And yet we still have the sixth largest ecomomy in the world!

You are priceless & shall we say somewhat partisan.

and here I always thought it was just myself who thought him a wee tad extreme

[Harry_Dresden]

Approach them with what? The companies that hold the licenses for those fields will continue to hold them...it will be divided up as it would under the UN convention on laws of the sea. If Scotland becomes independent they can't just draw their own lines in the sea, and not negotiate with the current government taking tax off those rigs. it doesn't work like that.

Edit - deleted wrong word.

So by that rational, it's safe to say that the British pound is also part of Scotland, whether independent or not?

[TSS]

So by that rational, it's safe to say that the British pound is also part of Scotland, whether independent or not?

No idea. Haven't followed any of the detail of any other issues surrounding the yes/no campaign. I only followed to oil question because I worked for Brandt Environmental for a number of yrs, and this question was discussed numerous times. It was only 2 yrs ago that Westminster agreed a 3billion new field allowance for deep fields to open up, west of Shetland. I haven't heard anything from the SNP to say they'll foot that bill - but i'm guessing they will.