Anti-austerity coalition government in Greece

[Harry_Dresden]

edit to add:

how long before the Greek Government is replaced: and a pro EU one installed: watch that space. the cynic in me thinks the EU will engineer a internal uprising in Greece, not by the majority but large enough to do the EU's dirty work for them.

I think it's gone beyond replacing the leftist government. Any new government replacing Syriza will not have any political capital to make new reforms or any deal that's below the bar that Syriza has set. Merkel will have to deal with socialists. There is just no point for any Greek government to negotiate more of the same anymore.

[questionmark]

I think it's gone beyond replacing the leftist government. Any new government replacing Syriza will not have any political capital to make new reforms or any deal that's below the bar that Syriza has set. Merkel will have to deal with socialists. There is just no point for any Greek government to negotiate more of the same anymore.

Whatever deal there will be after next Monday is not going to be the same deal as offered on Saturday. Last Saturday Greece had not yet defaulted on the IMF payments, tomorrow they will have.

So, if there any deal it will be way below the set bar because the other Eurozone governments will have to justify it to their parliaments and in 4 countries the parliament has to agree or no deal.

[kartikg]

how long before the Greek Government is replaced: and a pro EU one installed: watch that space. the cynic in me thinks the EU will engineer a internal uprising in Greece, not by the majority but large enough to do the EU's dirty work for them.

Just like they did in Ukraine.

[Border Collie]

Just like they did in Ukraine.

What an imagination you people have. SMH.

[questionmark]

in related news:

Does the Greek referendum ballot paper make sense to you?

The ballot paper for the "Greferendum" has been released. (Please note that the "no" box is above the "yes" box.) But can you even understand the question?

On Sunday, the Greek public will go to the polls to vote on whether to accept the bailout proposals offered to the country by its creditors.

A No vote in the referendum – indicating that the Greek public does not want to accept the austerity conditions and economic reforms that come with the rescue funds – will widely be seen as a vote to abandon the euro.

Read more

Why do I get the feeling that Mr. Tsipras is pulling the good ole "let 'em sign the Communist Manifesto" trick?

[Leonardo]

in related news:

Why do I get the feeling that Mr. Tsipras is pulling the good ole "let 'em sign the Communist Manifesto" trick?

The Beeb has quoted Mr Tsipras as saying the referendum will "give his govt a stronger mandate from which to embark in a new round of negotiations." So basically he is just attempting to entrench public opinion for his party's left-wing agenda. I suspect he's not particularly worried that Greece will exit the euro with a "No" vote, so long as he (and Syriza) gets to stay in charge.

[Space Commander Travis]

What an imagination you people have. SMH.

I presume SMH is some internet acronym. Anyway, if you really believe that the "West" had nothing at all to do with the Ukraine, i expect you probably also believe that the tyrant Putin is the new Hitler and the Euro is strong and stable Edited June 29, 2015 by Norbert the Incredible

[Space Commander Travis]

The Beeb has quoted Mr Tsipras as saying the referendum will "give his govt a stronger mandate from which to embark in a new round of negotiations." So basically he is just attempting to entrench public opinion for his party's left-wing agenda. I suspect he's not particularly worried that Greece will exit the euro with a "No" vote, so long as he (and Syriza) gets to stay in charge.

Do you believe that the Euro is strong and stable? QM always used to, although he hasn't said it so much lately.

[SHaYap]

Puerto Rico next ?

Puerto Rico’s governor on need to postpone debt payments for years: ‘It’s about math’

By Michael A. Fletcher June 29 at 6:20 PM

The governor of Puerto Rico said in a televised address Monday that the island cannot pay back more than $70 billion in debt, setting up an unprecedented financial crisis that could rock the municipal bond market and lead to higher borrowing costs for governments across the United States.

“This is not about politics,” said Puerto Rico’s governor, Alejandro Garcia Padilla. “It’s about math.”

Garcia Padilla said the country needed to postpone for several years its debt payments.

~

• Washington Post link
  

[Leonardo]

Do you believe that the Euro is strong and stable? QM always used to, although he hasn't said it so much lately.

Reasonably so, yes. While there undoubtedly will be consequences of a Greek exit it will not sink the Euro, nor the European project. In fact, there may be real long-term benefits in member nations realising they have to be more prudent in both their lending and borrowing policies.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Leonardo

[Space Commander Travis]

Well, you're more optimistic than Britain's completely unqualified Chancellor. "Britain's Chancellor, George Osborne, warned that Grexit could be traumatic."

Edited June 30, 2015 by Norbert the Incredible

[questionmark]

Do you believe that the Euro is strong and stable? QM always used to, although he hasn't said it so much lately.

Yes the Euro is reasonably stable, it has yet to go under its low point in 2004 (89 cents to the dollar) and at this point it is trading 2 cents below the initial target set by the ECB despite Greece and the ECB printing money like there is no tomorrow.

[questionmark]

Reasonably so, yes. While there undoubtedly will be consequences of a Greek exit it will not sink the Euro, nor the European project. In fact, there may be real long-term benefits in member nations realising they have to be more prudent in both their lending and borrowing policies.

I don't think that Greece can do much further damage to the Euro unless suddenly its most potent members (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands) decide to quit it because of Greece. It will be appreciated completely different now though because it sunk in that lending a Euro to Greece or lending it to Germany are two completely different pair of shoes.

@Norbert:

Even if there is a Grexit, which can only happen if Greece also leaves the European Union as the agreements are drafted (and no, as I have been saying all along: they cannot be booted out) for the EU that means it looses 3% of its GDP and 10% of its debt and gains 20-30 billion in disbursements a year. To put that into perspective: that is as if Liverpool was to quit Great Britain. Bad for Liverpool but Great Britain could survive it splendidly.

[Space Commander Travis]

Reasonably so, yes. While there undoubtedly will be consequences of a Greek exit it will not sink the Euro, nor the European project. In fact, there may be real long-term benefits in member nations realising they have to be more prudent in both their lending and borrowing policies.

Yes the Euro is reasonably stable, it has yet to go under its low point in 2004 (89 cents to the dollar) and at this point it is trading 2 cents below the initial target set by the ECB despite Greece and the ECB printing money like there is no tomorrow.

I don't think that Greece can do much further damage to the Euro unless suddenly its most potent members (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands) decide to quit it because of Greece. It will be appreciated completely different now though because it sunk in that lending a Euro to Greece or lending it to Germany are two completely different pair of shoes.

@Norbert:

Even if there is a Grexit, which can only happen if Greece also leaves the European Union as the agreements are drafted (and no, as I have been saying all along: they cannot be booted out) for the EU that means it looses 3% of its GDP and 10% of its debt and gains 20-30 billion in disbursements a year. To put that into perspective: that is as if Liverpool was to quit Great Britain. Bad for Liverpool but Great Britain could survive it splendidly.

So you don't think there would be a global economic crisis if the Grex did indeed xit? You're only concerned that the Greeks do they decent thing and pay back what they owe? I'm afraid I still blame the EU for talking them into signing up to something that they (the EU) must have known wouldn't be suitable for them, and then talking them into taking out this massive great loan. They've behaved like nothing but a shady and disreputable gang of loan sharks*.

* as opposed to a reputable and honest one

[Leonardo]

Well, you're more optimistic than Britain's completely unqualified Chancellor. "Britain's Chancellor, George Osborne, warned that Grexit could be traumatic."

Well, the UK govt has it's own EU issues at present - and an upcoming referendum - so it's unsurprising they would talk up 'wobbles' the the EU project. But with all due respect to the "unqualified" George Osborne, what he says is 90% politicking and 10% realistic.

[questionmark]

So you don't think there would be a global economic crisis if the Grex did indeed xit? You're only concerned that the Greeks do they decent thing and pay back what they owe? I'm afraid I still blame the EU for talking them into signing up to something that they (the EU) must have known wouldn't be suitable for them, and then talking them into taking out this massive great loan. They've behaved like nothing but a shady and disreputable gang of loan sharks*.

* as opposed to a reputable and honest one

Well, all those guys have to explain their lending to their voters. The opposition in all Euro countries would have a field day if it came out that they "just gave" the money to Greece. Look how Britain reacts to their contribution to the EU (even though most of that money is spend in a way that is beneficial to Great Britain). I don't call that loansharking.

Now, everybody knows that sooner or later Greece will get the haircut 2.0 ('cause they already had one for about half their debt at the beginning of the crisis), but nobody want to do it like 1.0 because all that did is get Greece fresh money so they could run up their bill again to the point where they could not repay.

Naturally the other EU countries could just ignore those little past experiences, give Greece a new loan and just get on with it. In fact, they could even give a special loan so Mr. Tsipras could spend some quality time at the Playboy Ranch. But that does not solve the problems of the Greek. There are only two ways: one is to adjust the spending to a level that is affordable and two is default and eat grass for the next few years.

[Deleted]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/29/joseph-stiglitz-how-i-would-vote-in-the-greek-referendum?CMP=share_btn_fb

this also mirrors my opinion to some extent, even though I think if they vote yes, they might stay in the EU but the EU won`t stay the same, as some countries might leave in the next years after the economy crashes eventually globally starting with the US.

[questionmark]

http://www.theguardi...MP=share_btn_fb

this also mirrors my opinion to some extent, even though I think if they vote yes, they might stay in the EU but the EU won`t stay the same, as some countries might leave in the next years after the economy crashes eventually globally starting with the US.

I don't always, but on this occasion strongly disagree with Mr. Stiglitz. It is not like Greece is the only problem area in the Eurozone. Along with Greece Ireland, Spain and Portugal went down the drain and were given the same bitter pill with the same bitter consequences. To the contrary of Greece their governments made the best of it with the result that Portugal has a growth rate of 1.5%, Spain 3.1% and Ireland 4.1%. That is at least equal or better than the rest of the EU. Spain's economy is adding new jobs, Ireland's economy is adding new jobs and Portugal is adding new jobs. And that is also to the contrary of Greece where the only jobs added in the last five years were in the public sector paid by loans.

And yes, it is correct that most of those loans are just used by Greece to pay its creditors, and that is a good reason to tell Greece that they need to lower their budget or get new revenue. You cannot keep spending other people's money ad infinitum. Sooner or later that money source will dry up.

And Greece has another problem: a totally inefficient and in many occasions corrupt public administration. Instead of cleaning it up the current government reemployed all those who had been fired and restarted government branches that former governments closed because they could not fix the endemic corruption (see for example ERT1).

The lenders might be willing to keep Greece on life support but not very likely will they enlarge the life support.

Now, that is to the theme of the debt. To further aid Greece 24 billion euros (that is equivalent to 2 1/2 Greek annual budgets) have been sent to Greece over the last years to aid infrastructure projects that are non-repayable... all seemingly built by the local honchos and most quite useless like oversized ports and airports that nobody needs, Marinas that hardly ever see a yacht and similar.

Despite that the EU is discussing to enlarge the aid program to Greece to generate more employment, but those discussions have no place in the debt talks, which is something the current Greek government does not want to understand (no, its not like they don't want anymore handouts, as they would encourage them as good socialists, they just want more handouts and not pay back their debt to sell it as a great political victory at home).

This story has many sides and all parties made errors, but the bottom line remains unmovable: you cannot keep on spending your grandchildren's money to up you lifestyle if you don't want your grandchildren to p*** into your grave.

[Deleted]

I don't always, but on this occasion strongly disagree with Mr. Stiglitz. It is not like Greece is the only problem area in the Eurozone. Along with Greece Ireland, Spain and Portugal went down the drain and were given the same bitter pill with the same bitter consequences. To the contrary of Greece their governments made the best of it with the result that Portugal has a growth rate of 1.5%, Spain 3.1% and Ireland 4.1%. That is at least equal or better than the rest of the EU. Spain's economy is adding new jobs, Ireland's economy is adding new jobs and Portugal is adding new jobs. And that is also to the contrary of Greece where the only jobs added in the last five years were in the public sector paid by loans.

And yes, it is correct that most of those loans are just used by Greece to pay its creditors, and that is a good reason to tell Greece that they need to lower their budget or get new revenue. You cannot keep spending other people's money ad infinitum. Sooner or later that money source will dry up.

And Greece has another problem: a totally inefficient and in many occasions corrupt public administration. Instead of cleaning it up the current government reemployed all those who had been fired and restarted government branches that former governments closed because they could not fix the endemic corruption (see for example ERT1).

The lenders might be willing to keep Greece on life support but not very likely will they enlarge the life support.

Now, that is to the theme of the debt. To further aid Greece 24 billion euros (that is equivalent to 2 1/2 Greek annual budgets) have been sent to Greece over the last years to aid infrastructure projects that are non-repayable... all seemingly built by the local honchos and most quite useless like oversized ports and airports that nobody needs, Marinas that hardly ever see a yacht and similar.

Despite that the EU is discussing to enlarge the aid program to Greece to generate more employment, but those discussions have no place in the debt talks, which is something the current Greek government does not want to understand (no, its not like they don't want anymore handouts, as they would encourage them as good socialists, they just want more handouts and not pay back their debt to sell it as a great political victory at home).

This story has many sides and all parties made errors, but the bottom line remains unmovable: you cannot keep on spending your grandchildren's money to up you lifestyle if you don't want your grandchildren to p*** into your grave.

Well the people in Spain and Italy don't see it like you they don't have the impression it got better, actually they are demonstrating for Greece and they are going to vote for a left government. Also the "creditors" want that Greece spend their money on military, that they buy military equipment from the EU (you can read it in various newspapers), that is one point trispas doesn't want to do. It is all a farce and they want to get rid of the left government so they can install more puppets.

Also things which worked just fine for Ireland and Spain (which actually I don't think, I don't think economy growth says much about an economy and about its wealth), don't have to work out for Greece, since those are three different regions and fact is, that the politics which the EU demanded from Greece weren't beneficial for her, on the contrary they destroyed Greece`s economy further.

In 2008 I had to do a presentation on Greece and what they should do with their banks, I said they should let them go bankruptcy and don't save them also don't save french banks and German banks. They should follow Iceland's model and also reform their financial politic. They didn`t, instead they did what the majority did, cause they had such a "great" conservative government and now they have the mess.

"Now, that is to the theme of the debt. To further aid Greece 24 billion euros (that is equivalent to 2 1/2 Greek annual budgets) have been sent to Greece over the last years to aid infrastructure projects that are non-repayable... all seemingly built by the local honchos and most quite useless like oversized ports and airports that nobody needs, Marinas that hardly ever see a yacht and similar."

The creditors forced an austerity politic, they had a lot of influence since the last government were their puppets, so most investments which were done, were in favor of those creditors. Also on which basis do you say that those infrastructure programs weren't necessary?

[questionmark]

Well the people in Spain and Italy don't see it like you they don't have the impression it got better, actually they are demonstrating for Greece and they are going to vote for a left government. Also the "creditors" want that Greece spend their money on military, that they buy military equipment from the EU (you can read it in various newspapers), that is one point trispas doesn't want to do. It is all a farce and they want to get rid of the left government so they can install more puppets.

Naturally they don't have the impression that it got better, their former living standard was based on debts that their grandchildren have to pay. Now it is based on what they can earn themselves without leaching off future generations.

And I don't know where you got that military crap. One of the proposals that was made was to save money by reducing the military budget (which with 2.5% of the GDP is the richest in all of Europe) instead of in social programs. It does not seem that Greece wants to do that either.

[Deleted]

Naturally they don't have the impression that it got better, their former living standard was based on debts that their grandchildren have to pay. Now it is based on what they can earn themselves without leaching off future generations.

And I don't know where you got that military crap. One of the proposals that was made was to save money by reducing the military budget (which with 2.5% of the GDP is the richest in all of Europe) instead of in social programs. It does not seem that Greece wants to do that either.

"their former living standard was based on debts that their grandchildren have to pay" you can say that about any country lol. Nope most of those debts were caused by bailing out banks and through corruption (also as I said you can say that about any country nowadays). Also the debts have compound interest, that system itself is perverted. I bet if we count all the taxes which the people payed and compare it to what they got over the years/decades, we will see that the crisis is caused by the mismanagement of the governments and their corruption.

Also of course the right/conservative politicians are going to cut welfare first because it doesn't affect themselves, if we look at history it just seems that the cycle is repeating, they cut social welfare and everything the people desire and what they are paying taxes for, then the people start demonstrating, revolting....etc

[questionmark]

Legends, Greece already had 110% of GDP in public debts in 2006 (naturally smartly hidden as we know now) and had to put up between 5 and 7% of GDP to pay interest on it (or the equivalent of about 50% of the national budget), that was 2 years before the banking crisis. That now they have 200% GDP does not have to do anything with saving banks but with the fact that Greece's main portion of the GDP, which was getting a loan for 10% of a project and the other 90% in non-refundable EU subsidies broke away almost completely once the bubble burst.

That many countries were eager to give them money so they could repay the debts they had at the banks of those countries is normal. They did not want to have their own crisis by letting banks belly up. But that is a consequence of their doing, not the root of it.

[questionmark]

And the circus continues:

Greece debt crisis: Tsipras asks for new bailout - live updates

Bipolar personality disorder much YourHonner?

[Border Collie]

I presume SMH is some internet acronym. Anyway, if you really believe that the "West" had nothing at all to do with the Ukraine, i expect you probably also believe that the tyrant Putin is the new Hitler and the Euro is strong and stable

It stands for Shake My Head. Some of the stuff that gets posted here just defies belief.

[skookum]

And the circus continues:

Greece debt crisis: Tsipras asks for new bailout - live updates

Bipolar personality disorder much YourHonner?

I am thinking clever move. The EU will take at least 3 months to decide if this is acceptable.