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White Crane Feather

Affects of minimum wage hikes.

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White Crane Feather

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/03/16/we-are-seeing-the-effects-of-seattles-15-an-hour-minimum-wage/

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Bama13

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

http://www.forbes.co...r-minimum-wage/

None so blind...

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OverSword

I can tell you as a native of Seattle that this article is not accurate at all concerning restaurants. If anything there are more new restaurants opening than at any other time in my memory. This does not include fast food which has been phasing out gradually for years because well educated people tend to eat healthier and Seattle is one of the best educated cities in the US.

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White Crane Feather

I can tell you as a native of Seattle that this article is not accurate at all concerning restaurants. If anything there are more new restaurants opening than at any other time in my memory. This does not include fast food which has been phasing out gradually for years because well educated people tend to eat healthier and Seattle is one of the best educated cities in the US.

Interesting. Of course your experience dosnt really count as data. So bussers in Seattle get $15 an hour plus all the taxes associated with Haveing employees? There is only one thing that can logically lead to. Less bussers.

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aztek

Interesting. Of course your experience dosnt really count as data. So bussers in Seattle get $15 an hour plus all the taxes associated with Haveing employees? There is only one thing that can logically lead to. Less bussers.

or to bussers be paid cash under the table, and definatly not $15 hourly, just like they always have been for the most part.

Edited by aztek

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White Crane Feather

or to bussers be paid cash under the table, and definatly not $15 hourly, just like they always have been for the most part.

Definantly likely illegal behaviour the more employers have to pay and are taxed to death.

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F3SS

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

Because it's not fair. Plain and simple.

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OverSword

Interesting. Of course your experience dosnt really count as data. So bussers in Seattle get $15 an hour plus all the taxes associated with Haveing employees? There is only one thing that can logically lead to. Less bussers.

The wage increase is happening incrementally over the course of a few years. But what you say would seem to makes sense at first but keep in mind the minimum wage in Washington State is currently $9.47 per hour. With the rate the cost of living is increasing in the next three or four years $15.00 will actually translate into no real improvement in lifestyle. Edited by OverSword
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Tiggs

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

Talking of basic economics - can you show me how to reproduce the BLS statistics that back up his claim?

Because the best I can find on there is:

Series Id: SMU53426447072200001

Not Seasonally Adjusted

State: Washington

Area: Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division

Supersector: Leisure and Hospitality

Industry: Food Services and Drinking Places

Data Type: All Employees, In Thousands

And that shows an increase in employees, from 2014 Nov - Dec of 109,100 to 109,300.

Given that the BLS occupational statistics are published a year in arrears - I'd love to see how he's managed to get the Nov - Dec figures for 2014, 9 months in advance.

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F3SS

With the rate the cost of living is increasing in the next three or four years $15.00 will actually translate into no real improvement in lifestyle.

Which is why an ever increasing minimum wage becomes ridiculous. In the year 2050 are we to have $30-$40 minimum wages? It must have a limit at some point or our monetary system isn't going to make much sense in the future.

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White Crane Feather

Talking of basic economics - can you show me how to reproduce the BLS statistics that back up his claim?

Because the best I can find on there is:

Series Id: SMU53426447072200001

Not Seasonally Adjusted

State: Washington

Area: Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division

Supersector: Leisure and Hospitality

Industry: Food Services and Drinking Places

Data Type: All Employees, In Thousands

And that shows an increase in employees, from 2014 Nov - Dec of 109,100 to 109,300.

Given that the BLS occupational statistics are published a year in arrears - I'd love to see how he's managed to get the Nov - Dec figures for 2014, 9 months in advance.

Your scrutany is well received tiggs, but I don't have the time to get into it. It's easy to poke holes. The varibles that go into Seattle are far to much to discuss here. ;)

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DieChecker

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

http://www.forbes.co...r-minimum-wage/

Probably the name will have to be changed to PacificDetroit.

The experiment will continue, let's see if the failure expands, and drives out business, or if the True Believers are right.

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White Crane Feather

Probably the name will have to be changed to PacificDetroit.

The experiment will continue, let's see if the failure expands, and drives out business, or if the True Believers are right.

Not likely. The economic, environmental, and historical factors of the Pacific Northwest are vastly different than Detroit. It would be a mistake to compare the two.

The minimum wage issue is a fundamental misconception of what we know.

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Tiggs

Your scrutany is well received tiggs, but I don't have the time to get into it. It's easy to poke holes. The varibles that go into Seattle are far to much to discuss here. ;)

If we're going to say that the minimum wage has a negative effect on employment in Seattle - then I'd expect to see some data that backs it up.

Which is why an ever increasing minimum wage becomes ridiculous. In the year 2050 are we to have $30-$40 minimum wages? It must have a limit at some point or our monetary system isn't going to make much sense in the future.

Generally - you'd expect all wages to roughly rise in line with inflation. Otherwise the amount of stuff you can buy decreases, year by year.

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White Crane Feather

If we're going to say that the minimum wage has a negative effect on employment in Seattle - then I'd expect to see some data that backs it up.

Generally - you'd expect all wages to roughly rise in line with inflation. Otherwise the amount of stuff you can buy decreases, year by year.

Please tiggs. what numbers are those? Who produces them? If they condradict well known economics.. Then why? Are those numbers really accurate? Are they peer reviewed like most well understood economics?

No you wouldn't!!!! "prices are fluid, wages are sticky" did you miss that part in macroeconomics 100b. ( I think).

Look. Labour is a good. When we start treating it like its not we walk into unverified territory and the emotional monster can and will grab us in whatever form it takes. Think hard about that.

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Degen

Data is alot more accurate than opinion

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Tiggs

Please tiggs. what numbers are those? Who produces them? If they condradict well known economics.. Then why? Are those numbers really accurate? Are they peer reviewed like most well understood economics?

BLS stands for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Y'know. That Government entity that's actually in charge of producing Labor Statistics.

The same entity that your article from the OP mentions in a Tweet.

Edited by Tiggs

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White Crane Feather

If we're going to say that the minimum wage has a negative effect on employment in Seattle - then I'd expect to see some data that backs it up.

Generally - you'd expect all wages to roughly rise in line with inflation. Otherwise the amount of stuff you can buy decreases, year by year.

There is tons of data tiggs. Take a macro course at your local JC and see how they arrived at all this. I'm sure the text books will have all kinds of references. Like I said the variables in Seattle are complicated as is always the case. But the end result?...

You know those government entities are super reliable right ? :no: :no: :no::no: : no: :no:

I suppose my problem is that I used to tutor statistics. That pretty much makes me a skeptic of anyone quoting numbers. Don't try to verify my statistics prowress that was a long time ago.

Edited by White Crane Feather

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Tiggs

There is tons of data tiggs.

Good.

Now show me some relevant data to back up the claim made in the OP.

You know those government entities are super reliable right ?

And your preferred authoritative source for US Labor statistics would be?

That pretty much makes me a skeptic of anyone quoting numbers.

Then why do you think we should believe your numbers without verifying them?

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Br Cornelius

It seems that the original article is arguing about what he believes will happen without any evidence to support it. He even acknowledges that the unemployment rate is entirely uneffected by the $15.00 minimum wage by saying that it is exactly the same as the national average.

An article full of hot air and ideology masked as science. There was another long discussion recently which showed that one state which did increase the minimum wage showed net job growth, but as has been rightly pointed out the situation in reality is subject to many other significant variables and policy decisions rendering the minimum wage issue marginal in the grand economic scheme of things.

It really seems that the only thing this article actually demonstrates is we can all find stories which match our prejudices.

Here you go, just to prove my point, here's an article which confirms my prejudices and uses many economists to make it;

The opinion of the economics profession on the impact of the minimum wage has shifted significantly over the past fifteen years. Today, the most rigorous research shows little evidence of job reductions from a higher minimum wage. Indicative is a 2013 survey by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in which leading economists agreed by a nearly 4 to 1 margin that the benefits of raising and indexing the minimum wage outweigh the costs.

http://www.raisetheminimumwage.com/pages/job-loss

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius

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F3SS

Then let's stop playing games and make minimum wage $30 right now.

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Br Cornelius

Then let's stop playing games and make minimum wage $30 right now.

There are obvious limits to the extent to which minimum wages can rise before impacting the general economy and practical observation would reveal what those limits are. The point is, the minimum wage at the current levels are having no statistically significant impact on the unemployment rate which is the major claim levelled against the policy. By applying the simplistic reductionist supply/demand logic you miss the actual complexity of the real economy - but that would be my general complaint against most macro economic theory - to little fact to leaven it over inflated claims.

Br Cornelius

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Cookie Monster

Seattle is an interesting experiment, but why on earth do people deny basic economics?

http://www.forbes.co...r-minimum-wage/

One way a business can compete is by assuming cost-leadership or cost-focus. For those organisations based in Seattle who sell to the rest of the USA or/and overseas they will no longer be able to use such a strategy. They will either have to adapt (if they have the resources and capabilities to) go bust (if they lack the resources and capabilities to adapt) or have to relocate to an area where the wage bill won't be quite as high. The result will be Seattle loses its major corporations and multinationals.

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Br Cornelius

One way a business can compete is by assuming cost-leadership or cost-focus. For those organisations based in Seattle who sell to the rest of the USA or/and overseas they will no longer be able to use such a strategy. They will either have to adapt (if they have the resources and capabilities to) go bust (if they lack the resources and capabilities to adapt) or have to relocate to an area where the wage bill won't be quite as high. The result will be Seattle loses its major corporations and multinationals.

A doubtful conclusion since it is not those corporations who are mainly paying minimum wage - it is small local businesses. Major corporations who do pay minimum wage are money grubbing their employees and we have Walmart as a perfect example.

Br Cornelius

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Cookie Monster

There are obvious limits to the extent to which minimum wages can rise before impacting the general economy and practical observation would reveal what those limits are. The point is, the minimum wage at the current levels are having no statistically significant impact on the unemployment rate which is the major claim levelled against the policy. By applying the simplistic reductionist supply/demand logic you miss the actual complexity of the real economy - but that would be my general complaint against most macro economic theory - to little fact to leaven it over inflated claims.

Br Cornelius

This made me laugh, I can't believe you think what you wrote is true.

There is a linear relationship between unemployment and the minimum wage, not a magic limit that needs to be reached first before it starts impacting the economy. All levels of minimum wage cause unemployment with the higher the wage the longer the dole queue.

That's quite simple economics (I know you don't like the E word).

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