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Climate change could prompt 'mass migration'


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Are the oceans rising or are the land masses shrinking due to the earth's core cooling slightly?

Seas are rising at about 0.140 inches per year. The earth is shrinking at about 0.004 inches per year. Not even close.

Doug

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I'd interested to see where in Wu et al., (2011) the claim of the Earth shrinking was noted. I think the press release was a little confused by what the paper was saying (as press releases so often are.) They found statistically insignificant expansion (.1 mm/yr +/- .2 mm/yr)...and there were some 1 mm rates floating around, so I'm assuming that's what was seized on in the press.

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New research by the University of Georgia has indicated that, in a worst-case scenario, so many people will need to move inland to avoid rising sea levels by the year 2100 that the population upheaval will be comparable to that of the 20th century's Great Migration

Have these super smart people at the University of Georgia ever heard of sea walls and flood control?

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Okay, the ocean moves in a mile, in the worse case scenario. Tell us what we have to look forward to...

Moves in a mile? Worst case scenario? There are projection maps that have most of Florida under water.

Have these super smart people at the University of Georgia ever heard of sea walls and flood control?

Which is gonna happen how when most of our politicians are still towing the no such thing as global warming line?

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I live on an intercoastal river at sea level, a mile or so from an ocean inlet. I have been hearing this nonsense for decades. My backyard is not being flooded, in fact it is accreting land, I've gained some 30 feet of land in the last few decades. So forgive me if I take all this with a large grain of salt. And anyway, that was the "worst case scenario," it could be that the oceans will only rise a few inches if at all.

9407019_G.jpg

About 3 months ago.

I guess we wait until everyone's backyard is flooded before we do anything, eh? That's a great idea.

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Sea level is currently rising at about 0.14 inches per year - one foot in 85 years. Do the math. How long will that take to reach your house?

Doug

It's not just about sea level. It's also the amount of rain, high tides, and area rivers. At high tide, with significant enough rainfall (and storms are increasing in number and severity), in addition to the sea level rise, there are places that are experiencing devastation now.

Edited by ChaosRose
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Posted (IP: Staff) ·

Here's a fun interactive map projecting what may happen with sea level rise. http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

I'm not making any suggestions as to how accurate this map is, or how likely it is to happen. But it is interesting to see how some areas of the world could be effected by sea level rise.

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I intend to aggressively protect my beloved traditional southern culture of Mississippi from any liberal Yankee scum who might invade. Also, no Californians whatsoever; they will never assimilate and will try to force their flaky socialistic ideas on my fellow conservative rednecks.

California agriculture is huge. If it fails due to drought and/or other problems brought on by global warming, everyone will be affected by it. And as water becomes scarce in CA, you may find yourself hoping that the "liberal scum" in Oregon will help out with the water to keep that food growing.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjvzYqagc3LAhVLKCYKHfZOCo8QFggkMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slate.com%2Farticles%2Fhealth_and_science%2Fexplainer%2F2013%2F07%2Fcalifornia_grows_all_of_our_fruits_and_vegetables_what_would_we_eat_without.html&usg=AFQjCNHoYn65WvtinXjpsbqRCU7ZZaNjMQ

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Or we could trap rainwater in time of floods and use it in times of drought...duh.

When it floods, water comes rushing in very quickly and it gets contaminated.

Climate change. All of the recent General Circulation Models (GCMs) that project future climate indicate significant increases in temperature, and many predict a drop in average annual precipitation, for the watersheds that supply California’s drinking water (Christensen et al. 2007). The precipitation projections are especially dry for the Colorado River watershed and southern California (Seager et al. 2007, Seager and Vecchi 2010). In addition, recent studies indicate that a greater proportion of the rain that does fall will come in big events, increasing the probability of floods and decreasing the ability of water managers to store the water for drier times (Field et al. 2012).

https://www.google.c...V6OyooTaU7K_iyw

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjYprTWjM3LAhUBTiYKHZFRCHYQFghWMAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.startribune.com%2Freceding-floodwaters-lead-to-homecoming-heartbreak%2F331196661%2F&usg=AFQjCNFMWjetw1FObZ33mW0lFJOlWeyR9w

Edited by ChaosRose
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It's not just about sea level. It's also the amount of rain, high tides, and area rivers. At high tide, with significant enough rainfall (and storms are increasing in number and severity), in addition to the sea level rise, there are places that are experiencing devastation now.

True. When it was surveyed in 1836, Pelican Island (Mobile harbor) had 34 acres above water (GoogleEarth: 30 13 26.69N, 88 5 55.16W). Now it's entirely awash.

Dog Island off the Mississippi coast is entirely gone. There was a resort hotel on it during Prohibition where a drink was always available. Lots of stories about god destroying it for its wickedness - it was a hurricane.

And Bois Blanc Island nearby is about half gone. The forest in the "Bois" part of the name is no more.

And that's without any significant effect from rising seas.

Doug

P.S.: One thing about it: sea level can only rise about 120 meters before we run out of ice to melt. That will leave a large island where Florida is (centered on Gainesville). The problem is that most of you live below that 120m line. My problem will be all those coasties moving inland.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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I don't believe that anywhere close to 120 m of sea level rise has been predicted. doug, are you possibly referring to this?

It stood 4-6 meters above the present during the last interglacial period, 125,000 years ago, but was 120 m lower at the peak of the last ice age, around 20,000 years ago.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/

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I don't believe that anywhere close to 120 m of sea level rise has been predicted. doug, are you possibly referring to this?

http://www.giss.nasa...efs/gornitz_09/

That'll teach me to check my facts before I post. That should have been 120 feet, but I don't remember where I got it, probably from an article that predicted that amount of rise by 2200. Gainesville is about 175 feet above sea level, so if ALL on-land ice melts, it will be flooded, as sea level rise in that eventuality will be about 216 feet (65m).

Doug

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Which is gonna happen how when most of our politicians are still towing the no such thing as global warming line?

The same way older structures have been built (Hoover Dam, Gavelston Seawall, Red River Floodway, etc).

Assuming that Al Gore is right, once people in coastal areas begin to perceive that the threat of flooding will be real and constant, they will take initiative, as humans have always done throughout history. People have been fighting flooding for thousands of years, I don't think a civilization has ever let itself sink. Unless the water rose so fast that they did not have time to act.

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My greater point is that initiatives will take place at a local level, as they always have. I don't think we need some kind of global system to solve this problem, assuming that the science is really settled to begin with.

Edited by mister
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Gee guys there always been Climate changes and flooding in ancient history, you just have take your kids and animals and run to the hills:)

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That'll teach me to check my facts before I post. That should have been 120 feet, but I don't remember where I got it, probably from an article that predicted that amount of rise by 2200. Gainesville is about 175 feet above sea level, so if ALL on-land ice melts, it will be flooded, as sea level rise in that eventuality will be about 216 feet (65m).

Yep, lots of ice on land. 30-odd m still seems a lot for 2200. Of course, ice shelf instability (esp. in the Antarctic) is a real possibility, so no upward prediction is unlikely per se. The whole shebang likely won't melt for more hundreds of years, since the interior is less prone to catastrophic failures.

Florida will return from whence it came. The gators will frolic in the remnants of the Appalachians. Or something like that.

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Gee guys there always been Climate changes and flooding in ancient history, you just have take your kids and animals and run to the hills:)

In Kansas, there has been about 1.6 degrees of temperature rise over the last 185 years. There was about 20 degrees of run on my back porch thermometer yesterday. That's why you can't see it - the short-term variation completely swamps the long-term rise. But climate change is not about daily, or even decadal, ups and downs. It's a long term trend that persists in the background. It's there, no matter what the thermometer is doing today.

I have started a project to determine how much climate change has affected Oklahoma. I started with the records from Fort Towson (July 1, 1824 to April 30, 1854). In the first eleven years of that record, temperatures rose above 100 degrees only twice. These days, temperatures at that location go above 100 almost every summer, usually for two or three weeks at a stretch. I suspect that the 1.6 degrees for Kansas may be conservative compared to Oklahoma, but it's going to be several years before I can get through all the data.

Doug

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Florida will return from whence it came. The gators will frolic in the remnants of the Appalachians. Or something like that.

A 350-year old baldcypress log was recovered from Washington, DC near the National Geographic building. It is estimated at about 125,000 years old. That place used to be a cypress swamp. It's now around 30 feet above sea level. Eventually, you're going to need boat to get from the White House to Capitol Hill.

Doug

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  • 4 weeks later...

Or we could trap rainwater in time of floods and use it in times of drought...duh.

Makes sense to me but in some states that is against the law.
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I intend to aggressively protect my beloved traditional southern culture of Mississippi from any liberal Yankee scum who might invade. Also, no Californians whatsoever; they will never assimilate and will try to force their flaky socialistic ideas on my fellow conservative rednecks.

lol, you will be forced to take them.
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As some places will be in a severe drought others will be getting way too much rain. Either way its not good for growing crops. This climate change is one reason I'm so against taking anymore people because we may find in a short time we can't feed the ones we already have.

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