How far will Erdogan go?

[+and-then]

http://www.news.com.au/world/reports-turkish-troops-have-sealed-off-incirlik-usnato-nuclear-air-base/news-story/4d7bb16e4e86842218b5b0d7d70f582b

I have NO idea what my government may or may not be up to in Turkey but THIS is troubling.  If Erdog decided to besiege this base and it's nukes we could have a very serious problem.  I don't imagine that this is his current goal but depending on the response he may well begin to get ideas.  Would NATO (US) go to war against one of it's own members?  Unlikely under an Obama presidency, regardless the stakes.  I assume the launch codes could be changed/locked out if such a scenario happened but losing physical control of those weapons would make Erdog an instant(nearly) nuclear threat in the region.  It's serious enough that I think they should consider detonating a "small" one to destroy the base if all else failed.  If you think that insane, imagine ANOTHER Islamic fundamentalist state with nukes.

[questionmark]

wrong question.

Right question: who is going to stop him from going wherever he wants?

 

[+and-then]

Okay, I can see that.  Ideas?  The EU certainly doesn't have the cajones OR the combined arms experience to fight an Army that size.  I think I'd fall over dumbstruck if Obama assaulted him in earnest after a military buildup/attempted breaching of the base.  I know next to nothing about security measures for NATO nukes but I've heard we have plans for a fast reaction/devastating use of force if Pakistan's nukes were over run.  This man is going to be a REAL problem sooner or later.

[Vorg]

It's too early to speculate why. But if they were to seize the base and its nuclear weapon, yes, I could see the U.S going into a war to get them back. That base has 50 B61 nuclear weapon each at 170 kilotons. That is not a trivial weapon, or amount to sit by idle and do nothing if they are seized.

[questionmark]

22 minutes ago, and then said:

Okay, I can see that.  Ideas?  The EU certainly doesn't have the cajones OR the combined arms experience to fight an Army that size.  I think I'd fall over dumbstruck if Obama assaulted him in earnest after a military buildup/attempted breaching of the base.  I know next to nothing about security measures for NATO nukes but I've heard we have plans for a fast reaction/devastating use of force if Pakistan's nukes were over run.  This man is going to be a REAL problem sooner or later.

If you are so worried: get yourself a tin hat... you know the rest.

 

[toast]

Even if Kim Jong E. would have these nukes on his desk it would not pose a threat as the nukes cannot be activated without the authorization codes that are in hands of the POTUS and the vice president. Non-authorized manipulation attempts (electronically/mechanical) of the detonation architecture would lead to a final deactivation/destruction of the detonation architecture and this shutdown can be reversed by the OEM onyl.

[Claire.]

1 minute ago, toast said:

Even if Kim Jong E. would have these nukes on his desk it would not pose a threat as the nukes cannot be activated without the authorization codes that are in hands of the POTUS and the vice president. Non-authorized manipulation attempts (electronically/mechanical) of the detonation architecture would lead to a final deactivation/destruction of the detonation architecture and this shutdown can be reversed by the OEM onyl.

Exactly. The nukes are not usable unless they are activated by us. We've also raised protection level for Incirlik, to condition 'Delta' (it's the protection level used in an imminent attack situation). So we're ready for the worst case scenario. Oh and if Erdogan is looking for a visit from our Navy Seals, I'm sure that could easily be arranged. Stupid jerk. He forgets he's a fly and we're a sledgehammer.

[toast]

4 minutes ago, Clair said:

Stupid jerk. He forgets he's a fly and we're a sledgehammer.

And he acts like a fly, this fuzzy little teaser.

[Leonardo]

42 minutes ago, toast said:

Even if Kim Jong E. would have these nukes on his desk it would not pose a threat as the nukes cannot be activated without the authorization codes that are in hands of the POTUS and the vice president. Non-authorized manipulation attempts (electronically/mechanical) of the detonation architecture would lead to a final deactivation/destruction of the detonation architecture and this shutdown can be reversed by the OEM onyl.

He doesn't need the nukes as a viable weapon system, he only needs the fissile, highly radioactive material they contain.

[toast]

8 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

He doesn't need the nukes as a viable weapon system, he only needs the fissile, highly radioactive material they contain.

And what do you think he would the stuff use for? To build an own nuke? No way.

[Leonardo]

12 minutes ago, toast said:

And what do you think he would the stuff use for? To build an own nuke? No way.

He doesn't need to build his own nukes, all he needs is the fissile material and customers who are willing to buy it.

[toast]

44 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

He doesn't need to build his own nukes, all he needs is the fissile material and customers who are willing to buy it.

Well, E. is a jerk but to assume that he would sell US owned fissile material to others is quite a big loop within the thread here.

[Leonardo]

Just now, toast said:

Well, E. is a jerk but to assume that he would sell US owned fissile material to others is quite a big loop within the thread here.

Assuming he would impound the nukes is just as large a jump. If he was willing to go that far, then stripping them for the nuclear material isn't really going any further.

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Leonardo said:

Assuming he would impound the nukes is just as large a jump. If he was willing to go that far, then stripping them for the nuclear material isn't really going any further.

My thoughts, exactly.  He's been acting in an unstable fashion lately and surrounding a NATO airbase is not exactly normal behavior.  

 

3 hours ago, questionmark said:

If you are so worried: get yourself a tin hat... you know the rest.

 

The thread poses an interesting question about a topical world event - quit being an ass.

[Leonardo]

Just now, and then said:

My thoughts, exactly.  He's been acting in an unstable fashion lately and surrounding a NATO airbase is not exactly normal behavior. 

Well, personally I think he's just playing a game of brinkmanship, but Saddam also played that game and look where it got him.

[Claire.]

4 hours ago, Leonardo said:

He doesn't need to build his own nukes, all he needs is the fissile material and customers who are willing to buy it.

Well he's not going to get ours. Having said that, however, there has been concern for a while now that Turkey has been secretly working on their own nuclear weapons.

Anyway, for those who are interested, here's an idiot's guide to fissile materials: http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-terrorism/fissile-materials-basics

Oh and by the way, if the FBI ever took a look at my search history, I'm going to point the finger at you guys. Looking up crap like 'how easy is it to get fissile material", "how vulnerable is Incirlik," "what happens to people when they die," does not make me look good.

[Michelle]

8 minutes ago, Clair said:

Oh and by the way, if the FBI ever took a look at my search history, I'm going to point the finger at you guys. Looking up crap like 'how easy is it to get fissile material", "how vulnerable is Incirlik," "what happens to people when they die," does not make me look good.

I've had the same thought many times. 

[Leonardo]

1 hour ago, Clair said:

Well he's not going to get ours. Having said that, however, there has been concern for a while now that Turkey has been secretly working on their own nuclear weapons.

Anyway, for those who are interested, here's an idiot's guide to fissile materials: http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-terrorism/fissile-materials-basics

Oh and by the way, if the FBI ever took a look at my search history, I'm going to point the finger at you guys. Looking up crap like 'how easy is it to get fissile material", "how vulnerable is Incirlik," "what happens to people when they die," does not make me look good.

*calls his contacts in the FBI and points them at Clair*

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

7 hours ago, Clair said:

Exactly. The nukes are not usable unless they are activated by us. We've also raised protection level for Incirlik, to condition 'Delta' (it's the protection level used in an imminent attack situation). So we're ready for the worst case scenario. Oh and if Erdogan is looking for a visit from our Navy Seals, I'm sure that could easily be arranged. Stupid jerk. He forgets he's a fly and we're a sledgehammer.

Have you ever tried to hit a fly with a sledgehammer?

[Vorg]

Still the material within could make a dirty bomb. Just as deadly, but on a slower scale than an atomic blast.

[Claire.]

55 minutes ago, Lord Fedorable said:

Have you ever tried to hit a fly with a sledgehammer?

The point you wanted to make?

[Unusual Tournament]

I don't think that Erdogan is silly enough to touch what's not his. Maybe his end game is for those nukes and America to leave Turkey by being as disruptive as possible. 

[Gromdor]

We probably should look at moving the nukes anyways.  You generally want to keep them  in a secure place.  In a country settling a coup and next door to terrorists is probably not the best place.  

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

11 hours ago, Clair said:

The point you wanted to make?

That your analogy was specious. Osama was a fly, who avoided the sledgehammer of three presidents. The Viet Cong were flies. 

[bee]

14 hours ago, Clair said:

 

Oh and by the way, if the FBI ever took a look at my search history, I'm going to point the finger at you guys. Looking up crap like 'how easy is it to get fissile material", "how vulnerable is Incirlik," "what happens to people when they die," does not make me look good.

.

That made me smile because, like Michelle I often think of that when  looking up '''stuff''' for threads -

.