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13% chance of doomsday, claims maths expert

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Dumbledore the Awesome

Is that after Trump comes to office? well, that's a reasonable gamble, I suppose.

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cormac mac airt

The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen.

cormac

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Parsec

Impossible, based on my calculations, chances are 23.57%.

Wait a minute, did he take into account the possibility of enhanced apes taking over? 

And a sudden global shortage of bananas? 

That alone counts for 5.73% (if you then combine it with the apes scenario, the figures sky rocket). 

This could explain the discrepancy. 

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Dumbledore the Awesome
39 minutes ago, Parsec said:

Impossible, based on my calculations, chances are 23.57%.

Wait a minute, did he take into account the possibility of enhanced apes taking over? 

 

Some would say that's already happened, or will shortly.

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Parsec
1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tarkin said:

Some would say that's already happened, or will shortly.

But I think they refer to the not enhanced version. 

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little_dreamer

Good enough odds for me. I probably won't live to see 2100 anyway.

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and then
5 hours ago, goodgodno said:

Overpopulation is the only thing that really scares me. In the developed world it is a pet hate of mine seeing families with 3 or more children. I will never have more than 2. In third world countries we need to educate but even that will be difficult/impossible

 

My 90-year-old father in law donates money regularly to NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH.  This is a guy who married, had 3 kids and has 4 grandchildren and 9 great-grandchildren.  Seems a little hypocritical to me.  The urge to procreate is so firmly entrenched in humanity it just won't be stopped without force.  Ask the Chinese how that's working out ;) 

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DieChecker

I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock.

According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500.

According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS.

http://thebulletin.org/timeline

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Parsec
1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock.

According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500.

According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS.

http://thebulletin.org/timeline

Maybe they forgot about DST? 

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AstralHorus

the problem isn't over population, its how we manage resources or fail to do so...

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GlitterRose

Cloudy, with a 13% chance of doomsday.

Wow...only 13%? 

Lol.

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Doug1029

Just how does anybody put a probability on all the different dangers that might hit us?  This follows the immutable law of GIGO.  Garbage in = garbage out.

Doug

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paperdyer

There is no good reason for the mentioned dwindling food supplies.  There is more than enough farm land left.  It's all a matter of how to pay for the increased production  Of course with some countries you'd have to be able to ensure the food would get where it belongs.

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spud the mackem

Another Dooms day forcasting NUTCASE. where do these nutters get their info from. Does this mean that I have a chance of 87% survival for the next hundred years ,,,,wow

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Peter B
17 hours ago, and then said:

My 90-year-old father in law donates money regularly to NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH.  This is a guy who married, had 3 kids and has 4 grandchildren and 9 great-grandchildren.  Seems a little hypocritical to me.  The urge to procreate is so firmly entrenched in humanity it just won't be stopped without force.  Ask the Chinese how that's working out ;) 

The urge isn't that strongly entrenched. According to the CIA Fact book, something like 40% of countries have birth rates lower than replacement rate: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/2127.html#tu That's not just First World countries like the USA and Australia, but even countries like Iran and Vietnam (both of which were a surprise to me).

Around the world the population growth rate is slowing. Within about a century it's likely to be negative for the population as a whole. The issue is whether we'll be able to provide enough food and water to a population of that size to stave off starvation and everything that follows from that. I'm moderately confident, as scientists are already demonstrating the ability to manufacture or grow food highly efficiently.

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woopypooky

For whoever reading this, i predict that tomorrow have a 50% chance of raining, regardless of where you are.

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seeder
On 26/11/2016 at 10:09 AM, DieChecker said:

I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock.

According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500.

According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS.

http://thebulletin.org/timeline


 

 

Quote

 

Doomsday Clock expected to move closer to midnight as threat of global annihilation grows

The clock is currently running at three minutes to midnight, where 00.00 represents the end of humanity.

But the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is expected to move it forward by one minute on Thursday, the closest it has ever been to the apocalypse since 1953 when the US took the decision to upgrade its nuclear arsenal with the hydrogen bomb.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/doomsdayclock-expected-move-closer-midnight-threat-global-annihilation/


 

 

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Thorvir

91% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

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MWoo7
11 minutes ago, Thorvir said:

91% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Oh you mean like when some use data strictly from 1890 to present almost as though like some religions assume!!!!!! that's when the earth was made or civilization/man started. Bad as religion.  At least now some are certainly including and correlating ice cores and geology around the globe.  Read a book state of fear ? oh can never remember that kid's name, anyway what an eye opener on stats and graphs and data picking. HA! like that probability qualifier cormac"""

The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen.

cormac

" perfect as in like saying hey what about all this other data RECORD! that's sitting around here on this rock?  Perfect example! the other part somehow they forget to mention, well except for the students and that's why some are BOOTED OUT OF THE AUDITORIUM!

Edited by MWoo7
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Thorvir
12 minutes ago, MWoo7 said:

Oh you mean like when some use data strictly from 1890 to present almost as though like some religions assume!!!!!! that's when the earth was made or civilization/man started. Bad as religion.  At least now some are certainly including and correlating ice cores and geology around the globe.  Read a book state of fear ? oh can never remember that kid's name, anyway what an eye opener on stats and graphs and data picking. HA! like that probability qualifier cormac"""

The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen.

cormac

" perfect as in like saying hey what about all this other data RECORD! that's sitting around here on this rock?  Perfect example! the other part somehow they forget to mention, well except for the students and that's why some are BOOTED OUT OF THE AUDITORIUM!

Well, yeah to all of that, but I was just being a bit silly.  There was no deeper meaning to my claim that "91% of all statistics are made up on the spot" aside from the fact that I made that up as I typed. :D:D:D

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seeder

Well, lets look at world affairs currently

Nth Korea threatening the US

US and NATO threatening Russia

US and China could get serious

Taiwan feel threatened by China

Pakistan and India squaring off

All of whom are nuke armed

All building over the last year or two........ so Id say the doomsday clock is very useful but so is simply reading world news

THEN...we have all the silly stuff with Israel and Palestine and the various mid east  terror groups......doesnt take a genius to think about it really

 

 

 

 

Edited by seeder

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MWoo7
4 minutes ago, Thorvir said:

Well, yeah to all of that, but I was just being a bit silly.  There was no deeper meaning to my claim that "91% of all statistics are made up on the spot" aside from the fact that I made that up as I typed. :D:D:D

Still, who doesn't exaggerate, hate this word..? now I forgot BRAAAAAAAAINFART ! oh a bit of hyperbole never hurt anybody, ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE IS TRYING TO BE HEARD or make a point, ... gets their attention I've always found but being small you figure that out quickly!  Quick as a whistle and sharp will never do you wrong eeeh I just made that UP HA!

Who needs sewing needles? when you have one of your own. GOT (Game of Thrones TV/HBO series)
80be89222669b5c37352d77ef6d19c59.jpg

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Thorvir
5 minutes ago, seeder said:

Well, lets look at world affairs currently

Nth Korea threatening the US as usual

Russia threatening Europe as usual

US and China could get serious (in what way?  like love-serious?  that's how people get cooties)

Taiwan being threatened by China as usual

Pakistan and India squaring off as usual

Iran threatening the US and Israel as usual

All of whom are nuke armed, which is their right

I fixed some of that for you.

5 minutes ago, seeder said:

All building over the last year or two........ so Id say the doomsday clock is very useful but so is simply reading world news

Actually, all building for the last 70 years or so, it's not a new thing.

5 minutes ago, seeder said:

THEN...we have all the silly stuff with Israel and Palestine and the various mid east  terror groups......doesnt take a genius to think about it really

Meh, let them fight it out.

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seeder

While I dont THINK anything is imminent.....I believe everything is now primed to go bang...

Tensions have existed for a long time I can agree..... and tensions either lessen, or get more and more tense till a breaking point happens

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