UM-Bot Posted November 25, 2016 #1 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Dr Fergus Simpson maintains that humanity has a 13% chance of going extinct before the century is out. http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/301070/13-chance-of-doomsday-claims-maths-expert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Commander Travis Posted November 25, 2016 #2 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Is that after Trump comes to office? well, that's a reasonable gamble, I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cormac mac airt Posted November 25, 2016 #3 Share Posted November 25, 2016 The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen. cormac 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsec Posted November 25, 2016 #4 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Impossible, based on my calculations, chances are 23.57%. Wait a minute, did he take into account the possibility of enhanced apes taking over? And a sudden global shortage of bananas? That alone counts for 5.73% (if you then combine it with the apes scenario, the figures sky rocket). This could explain the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Commander Travis Posted November 25, 2016 #5 Share Posted November 25, 2016 39 minutes ago, Parsec said: Impossible, based on my calculations, chances are 23.57%. Wait a minute, did he take into account the possibility of enhanced apes taking over? Some would say that's already happened, or will shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsec Posted November 25, 2016 #6 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tarkin said: Some would say that's already happened, or will shortly. But I think they refer to the not enhanced version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little_dreamer Posted November 25, 2016 #7 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Good enough odds for me. I probably won't live to see 2100 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+and-then Posted November 26, 2016 #8 Share Posted November 26, 2016 5 hours ago, goodgodno said: Overpopulation is the only thing that really scares me. In the developed world it is a pet hate of mine seeing families with 3 or more children. I will never have more than 2. In third world countries we need to educate but even that will be difficult/impossible My 90-year-old father in law donates money regularly to NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH. This is a guy who married, had 3 kids and has 4 grandchildren and 9 great-grandchildren. Seems a little hypocritical to me. The urge to procreate is so firmly entrenched in humanity it just won't be stopped without force. Ask the Chinese how that's working out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+DieChecker Posted November 26, 2016 #9 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock. According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500. According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS. http://thebulletin.org/timeline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsec Posted November 26, 2016 #10 Share Posted November 26, 2016 1 hour ago, DieChecker said: I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock. According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500. According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS. http://thebulletin.org/timeline Maybe they forgot about DST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstralHorus Posted November 26, 2016 #11 Share Posted November 26, 2016 the problem isn't over population, its how we manage resources or fail to do so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlitterRose Posted November 26, 2016 #12 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Cloudy, with a 13% chance of doomsday. Wow...only 13%? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug1029 Posted November 26, 2016 #13 Share Posted November 26, 2016 Just how does anybody put a probability on all the different dangers that might hit us? This follows the immutable law of GIGO. Garbage in = garbage out. Doug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paperdyer Posted November 26, 2016 #14 Share Posted November 26, 2016 There is no good reason for the mentioned dwindling food supplies. There is more than enough farm land left. It's all a matter of how to pay for the increased production Of course with some countries you'd have to be able to ensure the food would get where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud the mackem Posted November 27, 2016 #15 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Another Dooms day forcasting NUTCASE. where do these nutters get their info from. Does this mean that I have a chance of 87% survival for the next hundred years ,,,,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter B Posted November 27, 2016 #16 Share Posted November 27, 2016 17 hours ago, and then said: My 90-year-old father in law donates money regularly to NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH. This is a guy who married, had 3 kids and has 4 grandchildren and 9 great-grandchildren. Seems a little hypocritical to me. The urge to procreate is so firmly entrenched in humanity it just won't be stopped without force. Ask the Chinese how that's working out The urge isn't that strongly entrenched. According to the CIA Fact book, something like 40% of countries have birth rates lower than replacement rate: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/2127.html#tu That's not just First World countries like the USA and Australia, but even countries like Iran and Vietnam (both of which were a surprise to me). Around the world the population growth rate is slowing. Within about a century it's likely to be negative for the population as a whole. The issue is whether we'll be able to provide enough food and water to a population of that size to stave off starvation and everything that follows from that. I'm moderately confident, as scientists are already demonstrating the ability to manufacture or grow food highly efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woopypooky Posted December 2, 2016 #17 Share Posted December 2, 2016 For whoever reading this, i predict that tomorrow have a 50% chance of raining, regardless of where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seeder Posted January 25, 2017 #18 Share Posted January 25, 2017 On 26/11/2016 at 10:09 AM, DieChecker said: I wonder how this synchs up with the Doomsday Clock. According to the Doomsday Clock we are 3 minutes from Midnight, that would seem to me (out of 24 hours = 1440 minutes) to be a lot closer then 1 in 500. According to the history of the Doomsday Clock today's 3 minutes is about the same as when the US and the USSR were at their most stressed relations. So, I think probably today's 3 minutes is complete politicized BS. http://thebulletin.org/timeline Quote Doomsday Clock expected to move closer to midnight as threat of global annihilation grows The clock is currently running at three minutes to midnight, where 00.00 represents the end of humanity. But the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is expected to move it forward by one minute on Thursday, the closest it has ever been to the apocalypse since 1953 when the US took the decision to upgrade its nuclear arsenal with the hydrogen bomb. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/25/doomsdayclock-expected-move-closer-midnight-threat-global-annihilation/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorvir Posted January 25, 2017 #19 Share Posted January 25, 2017 91% of all statistics are made up on the spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWoo7 Posted January 25, 2017 #20 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Thorvir said: 91% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Oh you mean like when some use data strictly from 1890 to present almost as though like some religions assume!!!!!! that's when the earth was made or civilization/man started. Bad as religion. At least now some are certainly including and correlating ice cores and geology around the globe. Read a book state of fear ? oh can never remember that kid's name, anyway what an eye opener on stats and graphs and data picking. HA! like that probability qualifier cormac""" The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen. cormac " perfect as in like saying hey what about all this other data RECORD! that's sitting around here on this rock? Perfect example! the other part somehow they forget to mention, well except for the students and that's why some are BOOTED OUT OF THE AUDITORIUM! Edited January 25, 2017 by MWoo7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorvir Posted January 25, 2017 #21 Share Posted January 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, MWoo7 said: Oh you mean like when some use data strictly from 1890 to present almost as though like some religions assume!!!!!! that's when the earth was made or civilization/man started. Bad as religion. At least now some are certainly including and correlating ice cores and geology around the globe. Read a book state of fear ? oh can never remember that kid's name, anyway what an eye opener on stats and graphs and data picking. HA! like that probability qualifier cormac""" The flip side of it is that there's an 87% chance it won't happen. cormac " perfect as in like saying hey what about all this other data RECORD! that's sitting around here on this rock? Perfect example! the other part somehow they forget to mention, well except for the students and that's why some are BOOTED OUT OF THE AUDITORIUM! Well, yeah to all of that, but I was just being a bit silly. There was no deeper meaning to my claim that "91% of all statistics are made up on the spot" aside from the fact that I made that up as I typed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seeder Posted January 25, 2017 #22 Share Posted January 25, 2017 (edited) Well, lets look at world affairs currently Nth Korea threatening the US US and NATO threatening Russia US and China could get serious Taiwan feel threatened by China Pakistan and India squaring off All of whom are nuke armed All building over the last year or two........ so Id say the doomsday clock is very useful but so is simply reading world news THEN...we have all the silly stuff with Israel and Palestine and the various mid east terror groups......doesnt take a genius to think about it really Edited January 25, 2017 by seeder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWoo7 Posted January 25, 2017 #23 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thorvir said: Well, yeah to all of that, but I was just being a bit silly. There was no deeper meaning to my claim that "91% of all statistics are made up on the spot" aside from the fact that I made that up as I typed. Still, who doesn't exaggerate, hate this word..? now I forgot BRAAAAAAAAINFART ! oh a bit of hyperbole never hurt anybody, ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE IS TRYING TO BE HEARD or make a point, ... gets their attention I've always found but being small you figure that out quickly! Quick as a whistle and sharp will never do you wrong eeeh I just made that UP HA! Who needs sewing needles? when you have one of your own. GOT (Game of Thrones TV/HBO series) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorvir Posted January 25, 2017 #24 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, seeder said: Well, lets look at world affairs currently Nth Korea threatening the US as usual Russia threatening Europe as usual US and China could get serious (in what way? like love-serious? that's how people get cooties) Taiwan being threatened by China as usual Pakistan and India squaring off as usual Iran threatening the US and Israel as usual All of whom are nuke armed, which is their right I fixed some of that for you. 5 minutes ago, seeder said: All building over the last year or two........ so Id say the doomsday clock is very useful but so is simply reading world news Actually, all building for the last 70 years or so, it's not a new thing. 5 minutes ago, seeder said: THEN...we have all the silly stuff with Israel and Palestine and the various mid east terror groups......doesnt take a genius to think about it really Meh, let them fight it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seeder Posted January 25, 2017 #25 Share Posted January 25, 2017 While I dont THINK anything is imminent.....I believe everything is now primed to go bang... Tensions have existed for a long time I can agree..... and tensions either lessen, or get more and more tense till a breaking point happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now