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Earth warming to climate tipping point


seeder
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Earth warming to climate tipping point, warns study

A warmer world will release vast volumes of carbon into the atmosphere, potentially triggering dangerous climate change, scientists warn.

Writing in journal Nature, they project that an increase of 1C (1.8F) will release an additional 55 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere by 2050.

This could trigger a "positive feedback" and push the planet's climate system past the point of no-return.

Previous assessments have not taken carbon released by soil into account.

In their Nature paper, an international team of scientists said that the majority of the Earth's terrestrial store of carbon was in the soil.

They warned that as the world warmed, organisms living in the planet's soils would become more active, resulting in more carbon being released into the atmosphere - exacerbating warming.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38146248

 

 

 

 

Edited by seeder
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Haven't we been told since around 1990 that "we have less than 10 years" before the "tipping point"?  Or was it 20 years?  I know that for the last 25 years we've told we have "less than" 10-20 years to fix the problem before we're all going to die from runaway global warming.

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Seeder,

Your unseasonably cold weather aside, many scientific experts don't believe climate change manmade.

Edited by aka CAT
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This caper does have it's share of alarmism, including here in Australia an "expert" who declared a "permanent drought" about a decade ago, on the strength of which desal plants were ordered at vast expense, but sit disused due to abundant rains.

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28 minutes ago, Wickian said:

Haven't we been told since around 1990 that "we have less than 10 years" before the "tipping point"?  Or was it 20 years?  I know that for the last 25 years we've told we have "less than" 10-20 years to fix the problem before we're all going to die from runaway global warming.

I'm still waiting for that global cooling from back in the 70's.  Guess there wasn't as much money to be had from that one.

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Isnt 2016 the warmest time ever?  (since records were kept that is)  Yes...it is!
 

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Nasa has all but declared this year to be the hottest yet recorded, after September narrowly turned out the warmest in modern temperature monitoring.

Last month was 0.91C above the average temperature for that time of year from 1951 to 1980, the benchmark used for measuring rises.

The new findings follow record-breaking monthly anomalies throughout this year, leading the agency to believe that because of the highs reported so far, 2016 will take the crown as warmest in the 136 years of modern data-keeping.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/18/2016-locked-into-being-hottest-year-on-record-nasa-says

 

 

 

 

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This is not global warming made by humans burning fossil fuel and so on.

Its the spacefaring dinosaurs who are raising the temperature so it will be as warm as it was when they return to rule our world.
How they do it I dont know.. sorry 

 

A very gentle temperature gradient from the equator to the poles meant weaker global winds, which drive the ocean currents, resulted in less upwelling and more stagnant oceans than today. This is evidenced by widespread black shale deposition and frequent anoxic events.[25] Sediment cores show that tropical sea surface temperatures may have briefly been as warm as 42 °C (108 °F), 17 °C (31 °F) warmer than at present, and that they averaged around 37 °C (99 °F). Meanwhile, deep ocean temperatures were as much as 15 to 20 °C (27 to 36 °F) warmer than today's.[26][27]

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double post

Edited by Thorvir Hrothgaard
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2 hours ago, Rofflaren said:

Its the spacefaring dinosaurs who are raising the temperature so it will be as warm as it was when they return to rule our world.
How they do it I dont know.. sorry 

/sarcasm, right?

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10 minutes ago, Thorvir Hrothgaard said:

/sarcasm, right?

No no its all true..
I Cant understand why nobodyelse sees the evidences..
Its plain as day.

And now they have evolved.

Far-Cry-3.jpg

Edited by Rofflaren
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:lol:

 

Seriously, humans are a lot like baboons. Baboons are solitary individuals, only banding together in times of danger. So people tend not to do anything unless someone's shouting "LION". Course do it too often and you get the "cry wolf" syndrome.

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9 minutes ago, Rofflaren said:

No no its all true..
I Cant understand why nobodyelse sees the evidences..
Its plain as day.

I can understand why nobody else sees the evidence.  Because it doesn't exist.

And now I know you're just being sarcastic and funny.

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1 minute ago, clare256 said:

:lol:

 

Seriously, humans are a lot like baboons. Baboons are solitary individuals, only banding together in times of danger. So people tend not to do anything unless someone's shouting "LION". Course do it too often and you get the "cry wolf" syndrome.

....hey, if someone keeps shouting "LION", wouldn't they technically get the "cry lion syndrome" instead? :) 

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One of my hobbies is keeping saltwater/reef aquariums.  As a result, I am fascinated with coral reefs in the wild and follow many news stories regarding the health of the reefs.  An aquarium buddy of mine sent me a link to the article below just the other day.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974846/Stunning-new-data-indicates-El-Nino-drove-record-highs-global-temperatures-suggesting-rise-not-man-emissions.html

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16 hours ago, Wickian said:

Haven't we been told since around 1990 that "we have less than 10 years" before the "tipping point"?  Or was it 20 years?  I know that for the last 25 years we've told we have "less than" 10-20 years to fix the problem before we're all going to die from runaway global warming.

The problem with most claims of a "tipping point" is that the authors don't define the tipping point.  The original article is no exception.  They show a common-sense feedback loop, but don't show us what level of CO2 release from soil and/or other sources will trigger the tip.  There will be some kind of event that triggers sudden climate change.  What is it?  Possibilities are melting Arctic sea ice results in a new evaporation basin in the Arctic Ocean, melting sea ice results in shut-down of Gulf Stream, warmer deep water causes sudden methane release.  Each of these is a specific event, that if it happens will precipitate sudden and possibly drastic climate change.  But the soil feedback loop, while it may cause climate change, will be slow.  The sudden change hinted at by the bbc is intended to sell subscriptions and not to describe a real-life situation.  The term "tipping point" really doesn't apply to a soil carbon loop.

Doug

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15 hours ago, Thorvir Hrothgaard said:

I'm still waiting for that global cooling from back in the 70's.  Guess there wasn't as much money to be had from that one.

You missed it.  The cooling lasted only six or so years and was mostly in the late 60s and early 70s.  It ended in 1976 with the sudden increase in global temps, culminating in the 1998 high.  It never attained the level of "climate change," but was a misinterpretation of weather by the popular press.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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16 hours ago, aka CAT said:

Seeder,

Your unseasonably cold weather aside, many scientific experts don't believe climate change manmade.

Bet you can't name ten who are not on the fossil-fuel payroll, directly or indirectly.

On the other hand, I can name a hundred before I exhaust the list of dendrochronologists and I'll be into the thousands when I include biologists and ecologists.  And that's without even trying to list climatologists.

Doug

P.S.:  even Exxon now admits the reality of climate change.  And my daughter, who IS on the fossil fuel payroll, acknowledges its reality.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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4 hours ago, griss47 said:

One of my hobbies is keeping saltwater/reef aquariums.  As a result, I am fascinated with coral reefs in the wild and follow many news stories regarding the health of the reefs.  An aquarium buddy of mine sent me a link to the article below just the other day.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974846/Stunning-new-data-indicates-El-Nino-drove-record-highs-global-temperatures-suggesting-rise-not-man-emissions.html

I thought this was common knowledge by now.  The El Nino released heat stored in the oceans during the "hiatus."  It's not quite over yet.  We continue to generate new monthly record highs, though not as great as they were last summer.  I keep predicting a return to normal in two or three months and El Nino keeps on going.  So I think I'll just not make a prediction this time.

With record highs being set since October 2015, it would take some sort of miracle for 2016 not to be the warmest year in history.

Doug

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Climate change is a cycle. There have been 6 climate changes in the last 80,000 years. This data comes from Vostok Ice Station ice cores and Blue Hole stalagmite cross sections that collaborate the data from the ice cores. Now if the earth undergoes periodic climate change due to the earth wobble then climate change could occur on the average of every 13,3333 years (well that's the average for the last 80,000 years). Now the last ice age ended ~12,900 years ago so the earth may well be entering a naturally occurring climate change pattern.

There is information out there on the natural climate change process and we shouldn't resign ourselves to the hyperbole of the media.

If you're interested in a naturally occurring planet wide climate change disaster then research the Permian Extinction. From what information I've gathered the Siberian Traps which erupted for a long time drove the global temperature up by 5 deg centigrade and that in turn warmed the oceans which released methane by thawing methane hydrates that occur naturally on the ocean floor. The methane then drove the climate up by another 5 deg centigrade. From what I've read methane is 25 times worse then carbon dioxide when it comes to global warming. 

Please excuse my short description as I don't feel like typing that much. lol

Another thing you can research are the Blue Hole Stalagmites and how they grow. For the stalagmites to mimic ice core samples then stalagmites need to be above water and not submerged to grow. This means the ocean levels have undergone periodic rising and falling in the last 80,000 years.

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22 hours ago, griss47 said:

One of my hobbies is keeping saltwater/reef aquariums.  As a result, I am fascinated with coral reefs in the wild and follow many news stories regarding the health of the reefs.  An aquarium buddy of mine sent me a link to the article below just the other day.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974846/Stunning-new-data-indicates-El-Nino-drove-record-highs-global-temperatures-suggesting-rise-not-man-emissions.html

As a past aquarium enthusiast and fish breeder myself, I think we share a view of knowing that any ecosystem, small or large is a very delicate balance of many factors. One thing changes and a mass death or poisonining can  occur. 

It doesn't matter whether humans  are  causing the climate change or not! 

It's happening folks and we have to prepare for all the environmental dangers. Climate change leads to faminines, disease, death of animals and fish, homelessness and eventually wars over any and all resources. 

We have to prepare, try to adjust for it and change any factors that we can to make it less damaging. That's all we can do. 

Edited by White Unicorn
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Just thinking outside-the-box here:

This seems to me to be a great time to promote the use of desalination plants along the coastal areas. Since ocean salinity acts as a buffer to ocean acidity, then why not return the natural components produced by long-term rock-weathering back into the ocean, while at the same time combating desertification with water-carrying pipelines? 

"In the laboratory, when you mix a strong acid and base, salt and water form, and the fluids are neutralized. But ocean salt comes from rock weathering, which carries weak acid and base ions to the ocean. Over thousands of years these ions accumulate and make seawater “salty.” Ocean acidification is happening over decades to centuries, which is too fast for rock weathering to overcome."

http://www.whoi.edu/OCB-OA/page.do?pid=112136

Up until now, the measures taken to reduce industrial-caused environmental impact have mostly been reactive. During the projected 30-year hiatus in global warming due to decreased sun activity, why not be proactive?

I realize it may take a LOT of desalination plants to counteract the amount of increased acidification that has already occurred, but if we're nearing the tipping point, then the costs would be justified. An added benefit might be an increase in the amount of agricultural acreage.

 

 

 

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On 11/30/2016 at 8:27 PM, Wickian said:

Haven't we been told since around 1990 that "we have less than 10 years" before the "tipping point"?  Or was it 20 years?  I know that for the last 25 years we've told we have "less than" 10-20 years to fix the problem before we're all going to die from runaway global warming.

No.  We were told this in the 70's.  A new ice age was imminent and it was all our fault for using canned aerosol sprays.

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4 hours ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Climate change is a cycle. There have been 6 climate changes in the last 80,000 years. This data comes from Vostok Ice Station ice cores and Blue Hole stalagmite cross sections that collaborate the data from the ice cores. Now if the earth undergoes periodic climate change due to the earth wobble then climate change could occur on the average of every 13,3333 years (well that's the average for the last 80,000 years). Now the last ice age ended ~12,900 years ago so the earth may well be entering a naturally occurring climate change pattern.

There is information out there on the natural climate change process and we shouldn't resign ourselves to the hyperbole of the media.

If you're interested in a naturally occurring planet wide climate change disaster then research the Permian Extinction. From what information I've gathered the Siberian Traps which erupted for a long time drove the global temperature up by 5 deg centigrade and that in turn warmed the oceans which released methane by thawing methane hydrates that occur naturally on the ocean floor. The methane then drove the climate up by another 5 deg centigrade. From what I've read methane is 25 times worse then carbon dioxide when it comes to global warming. 

Please excuse my short description as I don't feel like typing that much. lol

Another thing you can research are the Blue Hole Stalagmites and how they grow. For the stalagmites to mimic ice core samples then stalagmites need to be above water and not submerged to grow. This means the ocean levels have undergone periodic rising and falling in the last 80,000 years.

The Milankovitch Cycles ARE cyclical and operate on tens to hundreds of thousands of years.  But the current warming is IN ADDITION (literally additive) to what is occurring naturally.  When trying to determine how much warming has occurred, one must first determine the amount due to natural causes and subtract that from actual temperatures to get a residual.  Climate change will be included in that residual (along with random noise).  If the signal is strong enough to overcome the random effects, then one has proven warming.  If not, then one concludes that there has been no unnatural warming.

In working with tree rings, I first have to determine a growth model for what tree ring width would be without warming.  That is done by taking short segments of series (usually 30 years) for each age class and time interval.  Thus we have 50 samples from trees that were 30 to 60 years old in 1890 to 1920, and 50 from trees that were 30 to 60 years old from 1860 to 1890, and trees that were 60 to 90 years old in 1890 to 1920, etc.  Equal samples in each group.  By averaging these, we average out the effects of both tree age and temperature rise.  That gives us a model for climate-free tree growth for one species in one region.  In practice, this is a list of tree-ring widths for each year going back as far as our samples go (Mine reach 1772 for shortleaf pine.).  We then multiply every ring width by a constant that causes our model to have the same average as a specific tree.  Then we subtract the actual ring widths from the model widths for each tree and average the result by year to give a list of residuals which contain any climate-change signal.  But we still have to extract that signal.

Next regress the residual ring widths onto temperature.  In dendrochronology, that is usually the average summer temperature going back as far as we have written records.  Once a regression model (equation) is obtained (The SAS program does this automatically.), we can apply it to ring widths from centuries long before written records were available.  After that, it is just a matter of comparing the 30-year averages to see if there is a change.

That's an awful lot of data preparation, so the process isn't done very often.

 

The methane gun is the mechanism most-likely to trigger the big one - catastrophic climate change.  Warming sea water melts methane deposits on the sea floor, causing methane blowouts.  Methane, being a powerful greenhouse gas, further warms the air, which warms the sea, which causes more methane blowouts, raising the temperature still further.  That's what we're really worried about.  Rising sea levels, flooded cities and crop failures are nothing next to ecosystem failure brought on by high temps.  We THINK (not certain) that this is still at least a century in the future, probably two or even three centuries and in that time we can reverse the effects.  But what if we're wrong?  Just how much time is left before the methane gun fires?  We do not know, but if temps keep going up, it will.

Doug

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