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Earth warming to climate tipping point


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9 hours ago, Yamato said:

Told that by whom?   Al Gore?  please stop citing Al Gore

Al Gore had the basic science, as it was understood at the time, correct.  But that was 2006.  A lot has changed since then.  It is time that "An Inconvenient Truth" was updated.  Al is not considered an appropriate scientific source.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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10 hours ago, Yamato said:

Doug,

I have some experience with DSSes like SAS and SPSS and I wonder if there are any definitive regression analyses done that can show disbelievers what they're missing.   Not just showing temperature effects on things like tree life, but on the causal variables of temperature change.  Any published studies or published large data sets on climate change in general that we should know?    Also if we've done these analyses from older trees going back 150 years, shouldn't we compare them to tree data closer to the present day?   Tree rings over the past 60 years, perhaps?

If we ignored carbon and fully prosecuted methane, would that make half a difference, utterly fail to solve the problem, or succeed in single-handedly changing the climate?    On one hand you're warning of a singular methane event but on the other hand it's already making the problem worse.   I don't think there needs to be an explosion event not to reach the exact same end result.  Dead oceans -> dead planet, from the looks of it.   

Tree ring datasets need to be calibrated to weather before they can be used to determine climate.  Reliable weather data in Oklahoma has only been available since 1824 and is sketchy or incomplete during most of the 19th century (We have none at all for the Civil War or the storm of 1886 - I think somebody "borrowed" the records and never brought them back.).  Each tree ring chronology, incorporates current weather into itself - we assume that ring widths, for example, had the same relationship to drought/temp/precip three hundred years ago as they have today - the Doctrine of Uniformity applied to tree rings.  So all that's left is to show the entire chronology.  Use Google Scholar and look up some.

Methane IS carbon.  It oxidizes to CO2 over about ten years.  It retains heat much more strongly than CO2, so the oxidation actually reduces its damaging effects.  Reducing methane emissions would help.  The extraction process loses about 4% of the methane it extracts to leaking pipes.  Some maintenance would help.  I know of several orphan oil wells that spew a study stream of methane.  Capping these would help.

When I was a kid there was such a well on my grandfather's place.  We put a board over the hole so the methane would collect, then we'd throw a match in.  Like a cannon!

I am about to take an extended leave, so I will not be online here after Thursday.  I'll be returning sometime in February, then gone again beginning in mid-March.  Thanks to everybody for your contributions.  Even those who disagree with me make me think and that is a good thing.  See you about Valentine's Day.

Doug

 

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Depends a lot on where and when the 'data' is collected and through what means ... most times the results are skewed from the get go just from the method chosen to gather the information ...

~

9 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

See you about Valentine's Day.


That's a date ... don't forget to bring me flowers ... I don't need the chocolates ... save that for your honey ... :)

~

Edited by third_eye
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Quote

 To me if climate changes  happens in parts of the world, it happens, and has nothing to do with man,so why stop living.It happened so much in history `s  past.  

 

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20 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

Like I said, it is not automatic and the general consensus is that it won't happen this time, but is it impossible?  No.  Is it "plausible?"  I would call it barely possible.

Doug

Why would you call it barely plausible? This statement rings some alarm bells.

Do you know what the effects on the climate would be if fx the THC is changed? 

Looking forward to your response. 

 

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20 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

The "wild weather" since about 2007 appears to be just such a "flickering."

We both know that is a very very bold statement. 

Therefore i am going to ask you, can you please document this? 

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23 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

Use Google Scholar and look up some.

P.S.:  Michael Mann's "hockeystick" graph shows it pretty well.  It was published in 1998, so nothing after about 1995 is shown.  There have been some other studies published since then that pretty much show the same thing.

Doug

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3 hours ago, Badfish312 said:

We both know that is a very very bold statement. 

Therefore i am going to ask you, can you please document this? 

I used Google Scholar and typed in "flickering of climate at a threshold" and got a long list of articles on the subject.  "Flickering" is also known as "climate instability."  Also, see the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Doug

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3 hours ago, Badfish312 said:

Why would you call it barely plausible? This statement rings some alarm bells.

Do you know what the effects on the climate would be if fx the THC is changed? 

Looking forward to your response. 

 

My impression from reading on the subject.

There is not enough depth above the Fram Ridge for currents to both enter and exit the Arctic Ocean via that route.  Without a southbound cold current along the bottom, the evaporation basin will be choked off, or never form at all.  Thus, no warm water to evaporate and feed adjacent glaciers.

Previous ice sheets have been fed by snow formed from moisture off the North Atlantic, not the Arctic Ocean.  We know this because the snow collected far to the south in Labrador and southern Norway and Sweden and through isotopic studies.  What Daniel is predicting has never happened before.  IF the Greenland ice cap melted fast enough, it could form a freshwater lens that floats on the ocean surface in the North Atlantic.  Only a couple inches thick, but that's enough to keep salty water beneath from evaporating, thus shutting down thermohalene circulation.  That would be felt down here as a cold period.  Such has happened before.  But these are cold periods, not new ice ages.  Yes, glaciers would expand a little, but it takes more than an ice advance to create an ice age, even a minor one.

As the ice melted back from Ohio it left a series of sixteen moraines between the Ohio River and Glacial Lake Maumee I.  That's 16 ice advances while the main front was retreating.  That's what we'd get - a minor ice advance.

Doug

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14 hours ago, third_eye said:

Depends a lot on where and when the 'data' is collected and through what means ... most times the results are skewed from the get go just from the method chosen to gather the information ...

~


That's a date ... don't forget to bring me flowers ... I don't need the chocolates ... save that for your honey ... :)

~

Yup.  Tree rings can show different weather patterns from opposite sides of the same mountain.  We need lots of different chronologies to fill in the details.  That's why we're transferring the ITRDB data to Canada.  If Trump shuts that site down, we won't have that tool available.  Probably ought to be stored at a duplicate location anyway.  The computer that houses the US' collection is in Boulder, Colorado, up on the side of a mountain.  It's probably safe from natural disasters, but you never know.  Political ones:  that's a different story.

Would flowering crabapple work?

Doug

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14 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

To me if climate changes  happens in parts of the world, it happens, and has nothing to do with man,so why stop living.It happened so much in history `s  past.  

Natural climate change is no problem.  But if humans weren't part of the equation, we'd be about 1.6 degrees cooler in Oklahoma and have fewer nasty cold waves.

Doug

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1 hour ago, Doug1o29 said:

I used Google Scholar and typed in "flickering of climate at a threshold" and got a long list of articles on the subject.  "Flickering" is also known as "climate instability."  Also, see the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Doug

Is this a joke? 

Why should i "Google" bread if we are discussing water? 

Edited by Badfish312
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51 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

My impression from reading on the subject.

There is not enough depth above the Fram Ridge for currents to both enter and exit the Arctic Ocean via that route.  Without a southbound cold current along the bottom, the evaporation basin will be choked off, or never form at all.  Thus, no warm water to evaporate and feed adjacent glaciers.

Previous ice sheets have been fed by snow formed from moisture off the North Atlantic, not the Arctic Ocean.  We know this because the snow collected far to the south in Labrador and southern Norway and Sweden and through isotopic studies.  What Daniel is predicting has never happened before.  IF the Greenland ice cap melted fast enough, it could form a freshwater lens that floats on the ocean surface in the North Atlantic.  Only a couple inches thick, but that's enough to keep salty water beneath from evaporating, thus shutting down thermohalene circulation.  That would be felt down here as a cold period.  Such has happened before.  But these are cold periods, not new ice ages.  Yes, glaciers would expand a little, but it takes more than an ice advance to create an ice age, even a minor one.

As the ice melted back from Ohio it left a series of sixteen moraines between the Ohio River and Glacial Lake Maumee I.  That's 16 ice advances while the main front was retreating.  That's what we'd get - a minor ice advance.

Doug

Trying to justify or pretending to have greater knowlegde of oceans currents is not helping your case here.

Above you have stated you have got the impression from reading on the subject. While reading did you get a basic understanding on how the oceans currents works and how complex the system is? Above post indicates a no, however hope i am wrong. If so, lets continue. If not, lets stop. 

Fram Ridge? A man with your credentials should know Fram Ridge has nothing to do with the AO. Hope this was a simple case of bad memory and you meant the fram strait. 

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27 minutes ago, Badfish312 said:

Is this a joke? 

Why should i "Google" bread if we are discussing water? 

That was a continuation of a post answering Yamato.  If you'd checked, you'd see I was continuing my own previous post.  But seeing as UM does not let me edit posts after a certain length of time, I continued it as a new post.

Doug

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5 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

That was a continuation of a post answering Yamato.  If you'd checked, you'd see I was continuing my own previous post.  But seeing as UM does not let me edit posts after a certain length of time, I continued it as a new post.

Doug

I know, hence why i edited my quote to fit the correct post. 

Edited by Badfish312
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3 minutes ago, Badfish312 said:

Fram Ridge? A man with your credentials should know Fram Ridge has nothing to do with the AO. Hope this was a simple case of bad memory and you meant the fram strait. 

Oops.  Should have said Fram Strait.

But the point stands:  there was no evaporation basin in the Arctic Ocean during the last ice age.  Even though the Arctic Ocean was open during the Altithermal, there was no ice age at that time.  Quite the opposite, glaciers were in retreat.

Daniel's idea is that rising temps will open an evaporation basin in the Arctic Ocean.  Temps during the Altithermal ranged from 2 to 9 degrees C. warmer than present, the Arctic Ocean was open and these conditions persisted for three to four thousand years - yet no glaciers developed.  Rising temps didn't cause an ice age last time, what makes him (or you) think they will this time?

Doug

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2 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Oops.  Should have said Fram Strait.

But the point stands:  there was no evaporation basin in the Arctic Ocean during the last ice age.  Even though the Arctic Ocean was open during the Altithermal, there was no ice age at that time.  Quite the opposite, glaciers were in retreat.

Daniel's idea is that rising temps will open an evaporation basin in the Arctic Ocean.  Temps during the Altithermal ranged from 2 to 9 degrees C. warmer than present, the Arctic Ocean was open and these conditions persisted for three to four thousand years - yet no glaciers developed.  Rising temps didn't cause an ice age last time, what makes him (or you) think they will this time?

Doug

Have to prepare for a radio show which is being recorded tomorrow morning. Will reply when i am done. However maybe you should read up on the topic in the meantime as your point doesnt hold up to scientific scrutiny.  

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16 minutes ago, Badfish312 said:

Have to prepare for a radio show which is being recorded tomorrow morning. Will reply when i am done. However maybe you should read up on the topic in the meantime as your point doesnt hold up to scientific scrutiny.  

I also have some work to do and as I am starting an extended leave tomorrow, our discussion is likely to be quite short.

Doug

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49 minutes ago, Badfish312 said:

Have to prepare for a radio show which is being recorded tomorrow morning. Will reply when i am done. However maybe you should read up on the topic in the meantime as your point doesnt hold up to scientific scrutiny.  

Here.  Argue with these guys:

Weaver, A. J. and C. Hillaire-Marcel.  2004.  Global warming and the next ice age.  "Science"  304(5669), 400-402.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/304/5669/400.full

Doug

Edited by Doug1029
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I have been trying to find the "Proceedings of the Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age," but no luck so far.  Anybody know where to find it?

Doug

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23 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

I also have some work to do and as I am starting an extended leave tomorrow, our discussion is likely to be quite short.

Doug

Firstly lets get Danielost point sorted so there is no misunderstanding. 

His point is, if all the ice from Greenland & the Artic permantly melts, it could cause a glacial period, correct? Let not use the word ice age as we both know why the term shouldnt be used. As technically Danielost can never be incorrect in his theory or assumption as we currently are in an "ice age" 

You know of the THC, correct? Since you are fond using Google scholar, what about using it this time? What does a slowdown or a complete shuwdown of the THC do to temps? When you know this, we can continue. 

Before you try once again to divert from the main point, i know exactly what happened last time the THC completly stopped and know exactly how many degrees the temp in dropped. However that is not my main point, so no need to discuss this. I simple just need to know if you understand what effect a slowdown or a shutdown have on the climate and then we can love on. 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Here.  Argue with these guys:

Weaver, A. J. and C. Hillaire-Marcel.  2004.  Global warming and the next ice age.  "Science"  304(5669), 400-402.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/304/5669/400.full

Doug

Above just shows your "expertise" is very limited, hence no reason to continue.

HAVE YOU ACTUALLY READ WHAT YOU LINKED?

 

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24 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

I have been trying to find the "Proceedings of the Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age," but no luck so far.  Anybody know where to find it?

Doug

You are kidding right? 

Which of the many confrences do you want the proceedings of? 

Edited by Badfish312
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Gore said NY would be under water by now... There was a time when NY had a mile of ice above it...Where i live (extreme cold), there was a jungle climate, with dinosaurs roaming all over. ..Yes, the climate is changing (as it always has). What has that to do with algore and the globalists taxing people

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