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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco

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* This in the news today:

 Jean-Claude Juncker criticised for drunken behaviour during audience with Pope Francis :shock: 

The poor fellow has turned to the bottle already? :( 

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Just now, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

* This in the news today:

 Jean-Claude Juncker criticised for drunken behaviour during audience with Pope Francis :shock: 

The poor fellow has turned to the bottle already? :( 

Since he was with the pope maybe he was "drunk on the holy spirit" 

 

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56 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

I suppose it depends what you mean by the EU. Donald Trusk may be a more suave politician than to say it publicly, but he and his colleague M. Juncker have said many times that they want to make it as difficult as possible for the UK to leave pour décourager les autres*. Just like M. Hollande and Frau Merkel have said as well haven't they. If that doesn't sound like the product of bitterness I don't know what it is. I suppose it could just be because they know that if other countries or parts of countries (like Catalonia or the Basque region) are encouraged to do it themselves, then it could lead to not only the breakup of their empire but their own countries, but either way what it is essentially is trying to discourage them by coercion rather than by emphasising all the great benefits of staying in the European Empire, isn't it, which doesn't suggest very much confidence in the Empire at the end of the day really. :unsure: 

* French 

Apart from the big middle finger shock that the UK has given the EU i really can't see any real regret that the Germans and French actually feel about brexit. Maybe you have read of something cause i haven't? Lets be honest here... the UK always saw the EU as a economic bus and never really supported upgrading the EU into a national union. The bus ride is over... 'thank you very much but were outta here and we also recommend that the rest walk away too.' Britain got all it could get and now it refuses to be part of a flotilla captained by its old regional rivals. In some way i can't blame the UK for leaving but critiquing the economic benefits is kinda silly and counter productive, especially since one of the biggest beneficiaries has been the UK. 

Thing is that France and Germany want to take the EU brand global and lead a market of 450 million. They can't really do so if the UK is constantly looking to slow integration and muddle the waters. To be fair to the EU they gave the UK alot and were very understanding of you brits and your wish to remain in the U.S. special relationship but if the UK doesn't want to move as one then i bet the French and Germans are probably silently happy with the outcome.  

Does the EU hate Britain, maybe bitter at the brexit outcome? No i don't think so but i do believe that they want to make an example of Britain to reaffirm the EU commitment to a united Europe. The brexit arguments for leaving were weak and jingoistic during the debate. And so there is no love lost. Nor at the poor defence of the pro-EU debate. Which i bet has not gone unnoticed either. The UK establishment played the EU and the British pubic and pulled off a historic victory. But the evil EU empire still lives and the UK will still need to live in its shade and not as some equal. 

Britain is out. So why the beggars bowl looking for a evil EU empire handout? The EU is probably looking at this and trust me when i say they have to do nothing to punish the UK other than up hold their own rules. 

Brexit should be confident, controlled and above all not dependent on the destruction of the EU. Something that it is not at the moment. I really can't see how a proponent of the stay campaign could lead Brexit. May should have walked away on general principle alone. Boris Johnson or Farage should be leading the UK into Brexit. And doing so in a mighty voice and bold actions... not caring for any short or medium term loss. Not trying to outwit a larger and stronger nation that holds all the cards. Point is that separation is never easy especially if you have already signed a pre-nup. Its gonna be hard and the brexiteers shouldn't be trying to fool anyone, especially themselves about what it means to be alone... especially after living and working in company for so long.  

Edited by Captain Risky
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39 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

* This in the news today:

 Jean-Claude Juncker criticised for drunken behaviour during audience with Pope Francis :shock: 

The poor fellow has turned to the bottle already? :( 

Well he must be hitting the bottle pretty hard as of late cause didn't he also threaten Trump with supporting the independence of Texas and Ohio... :lol:

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9 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Apart from the big middle finger shock that the UK has given the EU i really can't see any real regret that the Germans and French actually feel about brexit.

Well, 

www.*** blocked *** › News › UK
  1.  

18 Feb 2017 - GERMANY has admitted it can't punish Britain following Brexit, ... He said Eurocrats needed to “respect” Brexit - even if they “regret” the referendum result. 

 

France's Hollande expresses 'deep regret' over Brexit

:( 

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Why the hell is the Express blocked now? That was the Express, the first one. 

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1 minute ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Why the hell is the Express blocked now? That was the Express, the first one. 

Cause its a bad as the Daily Mail. Its rubbish and fit only for football hooligans. Thats why. :P

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9 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

It might well be better for us to leave immediately then let them approach us to negotiate.

I wouldn't be to hasty, don't walk away from the table when you have a winning hand. - just like the nine months which followed the referendum result, time is on our side.

Its very telling the EU have not got a free trade agreement with a top 10 World economy.  with the UK being the worlds fifth largest economy could we be the first? -

Hurdles and new Hurdles - the current shenanigans with Gibraltar says it all, But as for old hurdles. seeing how the EU puts so many hurdles in place, the same hurdles that has prevented it from signing free trade agreements with the worlds top ten economies in the last 43 years. - the bureaucracy of it all, those same barriers will be in front of the UK, first) any trade agreement has to be passed by the European Parliament, once pass that hurdle it as to ratified by all 27 members and we seen what happened with the Canadian trade deal and the regions of Belgium blocking it, and that trade negotiation took the best part of a decade. -  that is the History of the EU's inability to sign trade agreements. - and we are told by the UK Media the EU has expert trade negotiators, Doesn't sound like it to me. asd a comparison - the UK only voted Leave nine months ago and the UK as already got a long list of countries lining up to do trade deals, - and apparently we have no expertise. 

The UK Government Officially stated, it wont be part of the EU single market, and contingency plan to go WTO terms in the event of no deal. which lets face it, its the same WTO terms we currently trade with the non-EU world, USA, India, China, Japan, Australia New Zealand Etc..... So its pretty clear the UK takes its 2 year period of negotiate with EU and run along side it talks with 3rd party Countries, with any deals announced, with such deals coming into force on our leaving of the EU. We are not beholden to the EU in anyway shape or form and we need to get out of that mindset. (well the British Media do - But then again their still playing for a second referendum or cancellation of our leaving)

 

Edited by stevewinn
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7 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Hurdles and new Hurdles - the current shenanigans with Gibraltar says it all,

Well you know why that is; as if the Spanish government (unemployment around 20%) has done so well out of EU Membership that they're so anxious to preserve the Great Union of Nations. It's because they're worried that if the UK is seen to be more successful after leaving then parts of their own country that were coerced into joining with Spain will be encouraged to agitate for separatism, of course.

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2 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

* This in the news today:

 Jean-Claude Juncker criticised for drunken behaviour during audience with Pope Francis :shock: 

The poor fellow has turned to the bottle already? :( 

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14 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Well you know why that is; as if the Spanish government (unemployment around 20%) has done so well out of EU Membership that they're so anxious to preserve the Great Union of Nations. It's because they're worried that if the UK is seen to be more successful after leaving then parts of their own country that were coerced into joining with Spain will be encouraged to agitate for separatism, of course.

But didn't the residents of Gibraltar overwhelmingly vote to stay in the EU? 

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Oh well... so much for all the brexiteers saying that brexit was an easy and cost free choice. 

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17 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Oh well... so much for all the brexiteers saying that brexit was an easy and cost free choice. 

Ummm.Risky.... there were as many different shades of Brexit as there was for Remain so it is somewhat disingenuous to assign one particular outlook on the outcome to all Brexit campaigns and opinion.

As Steve has said, we must approach these talks with strength and backbone. The UK must not be seen as supplicants because we are not and the truth is that this era of peace in continental Europe is down to the USA and the UK who had hundreds of thousands of troops stationed in Germany for decades.

The residents of Gib did vote overwhelmingly to remain in the EU - but just yesterday they also re-affirmed their absolute desire to remain under UK jurisdiction come what may. 

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14 minutes ago, keithisco said:

Ummm.Risky.... there were as many different shades of Brexit as there was for Remain so it is somewhat disingenuous to assign one particular outlook on the outcome to all Brexit campaigns and opinion.

As Steve has said, we must approach these talks with strength and backbone. The UK must not be seen as supplicants because we are not and the truth is that this era of peace in continental Europe is down to the USA and the UK who had hundreds of thousands of troops stationed in Germany for decades.

The residents of Gib did vote overwhelmingly to remain in the EU - but just yesterday they also re-affirmed their absolute desire to remain under UK jurisdiction come what may. 

BOLDED: I thought there was remain and the uncertainty of leave. Nothing else. Please explain what you mean by many types of remain? Of course the voters were told by the leaders of the brexit movement that it would be a care free and easy venture to reclaim back Britain. Two things about that... it doesn't seem easy and the opposite is true it seems for the remaining EU members that it is... and two... those that said so are not in the fore front of delivering their promise nor to be held responsible for lying. So in fact, the EU proponents and the EU were telling the truth while the brexiteers were shamelessly lying about it. 

The general argument for brexit was that the EU could do nothing to to harm the UK so do not be afraid. It seems that they can do heaps but so far they only demand the basics. What a relief! And that has everyone scared. Why? So now were being told that even that is to harmful and vindictive. Why are the brexiteers afraid of the effects of brexit? its what they wanted after all.  

Edited by Captain Risky
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19 minutes ago, keithisco said:

The residents of Gib did vote overwhelmingly to remain in the EU - but just yesterday they also re-affirmed their absolute desire to remain under UK jurisdiction come what may. 

Yes they did. Funny how they are the most British of the British in identity BUT they are directly effected by a closed border. So they have to be practical. Do they deserve a soft brexit or should they be pushed into the hard brexit bucket. 

Edited by Captain Risky
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20 minutes ago, keithisco said:

As Steve has said, we must approach these talks with strength and backbone. The UK must not be seen as supplicants because we are not and the truth is that this era of peace in continental Europe is down to the USA and the UK who had hundreds of thousands of troops stationed in Germany for decades.

Of course like all difficult things in life they must be faced with fortitude and vision. Keep calm and carry on. Europe is indebted to Britain and the U.S. and in particular to Churchill who in my opinion was the Greatest statesman of his time. Deserving of more than even the high accolades he received.   But what has the war and cold war got to do with voluntary leaving the EU?

Edited by Captain Risky
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1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

But didn't the residents of Gibraltar overwhelmingly vote to stay in the EU? 

But you know that's got nothing to do with it and the Spanish govt. is just interested in whatever pressure it can exert to discourage others from attempting the seek independence.

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3 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

 

 

But you know that's got nothing to do with it and the Spanish govt. is just interested in whatever pressure it can exert to discourage others from attempting the seek independence.

I really don't care how many pieces Spain, France, Germany or even the UK fragment into. The Spanish government might just be doing it for the reasons you say BUT they're being supported by the rest of the EU for the simple reason being that if Gibraltar has an open border then whats to stop people and goods moving directly in the UK? Hard brexit has just been circumvented.  

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1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

But didn't the residents of Gibraltar overwhelmingly vote to stay in the EU? 

So did my city which has 5x more residence than Gibraltar.

Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly to Remain constitutionally with the UK. - rejected by 99% to 1% the idea of the UK sharing sovereignty with Spain, in a vote in 2002.

The Response by Gibraltar officials today over the EU's proposal: Gibraltar's chief minister Fabian Picardo said this was "unacceptable".

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has held talks with Mr Picardo in an effort to reassure him of the UK's support.

Mr Johnson said: "As ever, the UK remains implacable and rock-like in our support for Gibraltar."

Christian Hernandez, president of the Gibraltar Chamber of Commerce, stated the British government needs to "stand firm in the face of Spanish bullying". - "We don't want to be independent from the UK. -"We've made it very clear in the last 100 years, in the last 20 years, in the last 15 years, we want a constitutional relationship with the UK, where we continue to be part of the UK and independence is not something we aspire to,"

On a side issue, and something you might like to ponder Captain Risky, just google illegal Spanish incursions into territorial waters of Gibraltar, and this was long before Brexit. 486 incursions recorded in 2013, 387 illegal incursions in 2014, 406 times last year. 

 

1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

Oh well... so much for all the brexiteers saying that brexit was an easy and cost free choice. 

Sovereignty Priceless.

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The EU is about to destabilize my country.

Some areas (those that got rich out of it) want to stay while everyone else wishes to leave. London is a particular problem because we've filled it up with immigrants. They dont have the same loyalties towards Britain because in their hearts they know they aren't British. They are concerned with maintaining their wealth and high quality of life. Not concerned about the continuation of Britain as a separate and distinct entity.

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The French fishing industry is running scared should the UK decide to kick everyone out of her waters, they could be closed down as they fight for dwindling quotas with the Spanish.We Brits have a few cards to play yet.

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5 hours ago, A rather obscure Bassoon said:

The French fishing industry is running scared should the UK decide to kick everyone out of her waters, they could be closed down as they fight for dwindling quotas with the Spanish.We Brits have a few cards to play yet.

If memory serves me right, 58% of the fish caught in British waters are by EU vessels. mainly Spanish, French and Dutch. If Theresa May was to pull the plug on the 1964 London convention - a lot of EU fishermen could end up unemployed. But we don't want to punish individual EU members for the failings of EU policy over Brexit.

The path the EU is terrified the UK will take is talking to individual nations, frightened of a divide and rule approach that is why the EU sound bite at the moment is "we are united" and only the EU trade commission can negotiate, but with so many differing self interests amongst the EU members its impossible.

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2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

If memory serves me right, 58% of the fish caught in British waters are by EU vessels. mainly Spanish, French and Dutch. If Theresa May was to pull the plug on the 1964 London convention - a lot of EU fishermen could end up unemployed. But we don't want to punish individual EU members for the failings of EU policy over Brexit.

 

...and there's more:

Quote

The Financial Times has reported on manoeuvrings by European fishing groups in France, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Belgium to keep the status quo on fishing after Brexit. As these fleets take up to 80% of their catch in UK waters, it is not difficult to understand why they would want nothing to change

Source:

Edited by keithisco
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15 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I wouldn't be to hasty, don't walk away from the table when you have a winning hand. - just like the nine months which followed the referendum result, time is on our side.

Its very telling the EU have not got a free trade agreement with a top 10 World economy.  with the UK being the worlds fifth largest economy could we be the first? -

Hurdles and new Hurdles - the current shenanigans with Gibraltar says it all, But as for old hurdles. seeing how the EU puts so many hurdles in place, the same hurdles that has prevented it from signing free trade agreements with the worlds top ten economies in the last 43 years. - the bureaucracy of it all, those same barriers will be in front of the UK, first) any trade agreement has to be passed by the European Parliament, once pass that hurdle it as to ratified by all 27 members and we seen what happened with the Canadian trade deal and the regions of Belgium blocking it, and that trade negotiation took the best part of a decade. -  that is the History of the EU's inability to sign trade agreements. - and we are told by the UK Media the EU has expert trade negotiators, Doesn't sound like it to me. asd a comparison - the UK only voted Leave nine months ago and the UK as already got a long list of countries lining up to do trade deals, - and apparently we have no expertise. 

The UK Government Officially stated, it wont be part of the EU single market, and contingency plan to go WTO terms in the event of no deal. which lets face it, its the same WTO terms we currently trade with the non-EU world, USA, India, China, Japan, Australia New Zealand Etc..... So its pretty clear the UK takes its 2 year period of negotiate with EU and run along side it talks with 3rd party Countries, with any deals announced, with such deals coming into force on our leaving of the EU. We are not beholden to the EU in anyway shape or form and we need to get out of that mindset. (well the British Media do - But then again their still playing for a second referendum or cancellation of our leaving)

 

BOLDED BLACK: err... actually Britain trades externally under the EU's 'common external tariff's' procedure and NOT under WTO. The WTO are largely default tariff and charges rates to encourage free trade and trade deals. And the reason why it (the UK) hasn't already defaulted to WTO rules is cause the UK needs the EU common external tariff now more than ever. The the EU has negotiated very good agreements through collective bargaining. You see trade between the EU is tariff free. Once Britain leaves it will have to trade with tariffs within the EU. Something that you should have cross checked before putting down the daily mail. Now its not just the trade that brexit will effect within the EU but also UK and foreign multinationals will have a hard time moving money, services and product not just between the EU and the UK but to third parties also now that there are tariffs, red tape and charges . The UK will need to be very flexible and creative in constantly adjusting tariffs and taxes to keep itself competitive and attractive. Otherwise London ceases being a financial capital and trading house. Multinationals will have no reason other than advantageous tax breaks to set up shop if you do not have direct access to bigger markets. The UK economic growth and competitiveness drops markably. The UK stops being attractive to trade if it can be bypassed. End result: less tax, more of a burden for the average John and Jane Smith and a drop in investment and business confidence. 

And here lies the entire crux of the problem... for brexit to work (by that i mean not disadvantage leaving the single common market... cause anything else is a pipe dream) you would need an advantageous trade agreement with the common external tariff mechanism as the jewel in the crown of any brexit negotiation including a free trade deal with the EU otherwise the UK just went backwards... which means, that's right a soft brexit OTHERWISE stevewinn you are on WTO rules not just with the rest of the world BUT also your biggest trading partner. In other words... You need free trade with Europe and better trade deals than the WTO or what Britain can negotiate on its own. But to do this you would need to soft brexit and to do so would mean you are still under the thumb of Brussels but this time without a vote or say. So if you do that then you haven't really achieved anything other than deny yourselves a voice and vote in the EU. So why leave the EU?  

So as it stands, as a EU member... if your trading volume wth the EU is currently, lets say 45% and tax and tariff free and you work and trade with the rest of the world on rates lower than the WTO rules (believe it or not stevewinn, the EU has negotiated better rates than the default WTO will Britain also be able too?), how exactly is the UK the same or even better off after brexit?  

Edited by Captain Risky
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4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

BOLDED BLACK: err... actually Britain trades externally under the EU's 'common external tariff's' procedure and NOT under WTO. The WTO are largely default tariff and charges rates to encourage free trade and trade deals. And the reason why it (the UK) hasn't already defaulted to WTO rules is cause the UK needs the EU common external tariff now more than ever. The the EU has negotiated very good agreements through collective bargaining. You see trade between the EU is tariff free. Once Britain leaves it will have to trade with tariffs within the EU. Something that you should have cross checked before putting down the daily mail. Now its not just the trade that brexit will effect within the EU but also UK and foreign multinationals will have a hard time moving money, services and product not just between the EU and the UK but to third parties also now that there are tariffs, red tape and charges . The UK will need to be very flexible and creative in constantly adjusting tariffs and taxes to keep itself competitive and attractive. Otherwise London ceases being a financial capital and trading house. Multinationals will have no reason other than advantageous tax breaks to set up shop if you do not have direct access to bigger markets. The UK economic growth and competitiveness drops markably. The UK stops being attractive to trade if it can be bypassed. End result: less tax, more of a burden for the average John and Jane Smith and a drop in investment and business confidence. 

And here lies the entire crux of the problem... for brexit to work (by that i mean not disadvantage leaving the single common market... cause anything else is a pipe dream) you would need an advantageous trade agreement with the common external tariff mechanism as the jewel in the crown of any brexit negotiation including a free trade deal with the EU otherwise the UK just went backwards... which means, that's right a soft brexit OTHERWISE stevewinn you are on WTO rules not just with the rest of the world BUT also your biggest trading partner. In other words... You need free trade with Europe and better trade deals than the WTO or what Britain can negotiate on its own. But to do this you would need to soft brexit and to do so would mean you are still under the thumb of Brussels but this time without a vote or say. So if you do that then you haven't really achieved anything other than deny yourselves a voice and vote in the EU. So why leave the EU?  

So as it stands, as a EU member... if your trading volume wth the EU is currently, lets say 45% and tax and tariff free and you work and trade with the rest of the world on rates lower than the WTO rules (believe it or not stevewinn, the EU has negotiated better rates than the default WTO will Britain also be able too?), how exactly is the UK the same or even better off after brexit?  

 

 

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