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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco

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The most obvious comment about Gibraltar is that its a calculated move by the EU to force us into taking the hard Brexit option.

That causes maximum disruption to our economy allowing maximum gain for them.

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Theresa's already said it "no deal is better than a bad deal" give them 2 years then we walk, if the likes of Spain want heavy tariffs put on the huge amount of food they sell here so be it, we live in exiting times with exiting opportunities 'Go west young man' and woman the worlds your oyster.

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9 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

The most obvious comment about Gibraltar is that its a calculated move by the EU to force us into taking the hard Brexit option.

That causes maximum disruption to our economy allowing maximum gain for them.

There's only one 'Brexit' the one we voted for to leave the single market it's what we want.

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3 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Theresa's already said it "no deal is better than a bad deal" give them 2 years then we walk, if the likes of Spain want heavy tariffs put on the huge amount of food they sell here so be it, we live in exiting times with exiting opportunities 'Go west young man' and woman the worlds your oyster.

For us Brits its being able to export banking and financial services along with being able to import food all without harsh taxes.

For them Spain significantly benefits from our tourists. Germany from us buying their food, beer, cars, engineering and AMD CPUs. Ireland food. Greece and Italy some tourism. Holland beer. And of course on top of all of that we (with the French) provide most of the EU defence.

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3 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

There's only one 'Brexit' the one we voted for to leave the single market it's what we want.

We should just leave. It will trigger a panic and result in us being far more likely to get what we want immediately.

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13 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

BOLDED BLACK: err... actually Britain trades externally under the EU's 'common external tariff's' procedure and NOT under WTO. The WTO are largely default tariff and charges rates to encourage free trade and trade deals. And the reason why it (the UK) hasn't already defaulted to WTO rules is cause the UK needs the EU common external tariff now more than ever. The the EU has negotiated very good agreements through collective bargaining. You see trade between the EU is tariff free. Once Britain leaves it will have to trade with tariffs within the EU. Something that you should have cross checked before putting down the daily mail. Now its not just the trade that brexit will effect within the EU but also UK and foreign multinationals will have a hard time moving money, services and product not just between the EU and the UK but to third parties also now that there are tariffs, red tape and charges . The UK will need to be very flexible and creative in constantly adjusting tariffs and taxes to keep itself competitive and attractive. Otherwise London ceases being a financial capital and trading house. Multinationals will have no reason other than advantageous tax breaks to set up shop if you do not have direct access to bigger markets. The UK economic growth and competitiveness drops markably. The UK stops being attractive to trade if it can be bypassed. End result: less tax, more of a burden for the average John and Jane Smith and a drop in investment and business confidence. 

And here lies the entire crux of the problem... for brexit to work (by that i mean not disadvantage leaving the single common market... cause anything else is a pipe dream) you would need an advantageous trade agreement with the common external tariff mechanism as the jewel in the crown of any brexit negotiation including a free trade deal with the EU otherwise the UK just went backwards... which means, that's right a soft brexit OTHERWISE stevewinn you are on WTO rules not just with the rest of the world BUT also your biggest trading partner. In other words... You need free trade with Europe and better trade deals than the WTO or what Britain can negotiate on its own. But to do this you would need to soft brexit and to do so would mean you are still under the thumb of Brussels but this time without a vote or say. So if you do that then you haven't really achieved anything other than deny yourselves a voice and vote in the EU. So why leave the EU?  

So as it stands, as a EU member... if your trading volume wth the EU is currently, lets say 45% and tax and tariff free and you work and trade with the rest of the world on rates lower than the WTO rules (believe it or not stevewinn, the EU has negotiated better rates than the default WTO will Britain also be able too?), how exactly is the UK the same or even better off after brexit?  

Yes your correct Capatin Risky in regard we trade under the EU's external tariff. - elementary mistake on my part.

But my point still stands. If the EU are unable to agree a trade deal then the WTO option would still be a far better option and the only option for the UK as the average WTO tariff is lower than the EU's external tariff, - the plus side is, the UK will be free to negotiate its own bespoke trade deals with whomever it wants. As it stands the UK is forced to charge higher tariffs to protect industries we no longer have but exist in other member states. - its worth noting The EU is also a signatory to WTO rules, so the EU cannot punish the UK by charging the UK a higher tariff than it does with a non-EU country. example the EU can only charge a maximum 10% tariff on cars as per WTO,  and as been highlighted in the past in a tariff  WTO between the UK and EU, the UK comes out the winner as it will raise enough money to subsidise those British industries affected and raise a surplus of £7Billion for the UK treasury to spend here at home - in reverse any levy raised by a EU member has to be handed over to the EU and shared out between the 27 members (the country where the levy was raised gets to keep 20% for admin)

Keeping it in perspective, over 90% of the British economy is here within the UK, only 11% of British businesses trade (total) of that small figure less than half trade with the EU. and we have to remember it is the purchaser who pays the tariff not the Government.

 

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On 01/04/2017 at 10:29 AM, Captain Risky said:

Oh well... so much for all the brexiteers saying that brexit was an easy and cost free choice. 

Erm.......no can't remember anyone saying that.

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10 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Erm.......no can't remember anyone saying that.

Well according to the general consensus in the other marathon Brexit thread... Brexit was a easy and viable no brainer. Maybe I should go through that thread and post a couple of quotes?

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3 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Well according to the general consensus in the other marathon Brexit thread... Brexit was a easy and viable no brainer. Maybe I should go through that thread and post a couple of quotes?

yes please, we'd like to see which ones you carefully cherry-pick and quote out of context. 

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5 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Well according to the general consensus in the other marathon Brexit thread... Brexit was a easy and viable no brainer. Maybe I should go through that thread and post a couple of quotes?

No thank you...

re-hashing all of the Leave / Remain arguments again is not productive for this thread. I would ask you to focus on the opening ploys and positions taken by both sides to effectively create a timeline of the changing attitudes and stances during this phoney - war exercise.

I note today that the Spanish Foreign Ministry is quickly backpedalling on the veto handed it by the EU over any deal so that it excludes Gibraltar. Whilst I entirely disagree with Lord Howards allusion to the Falkland Islands, it certainly has had the desired effect in toning down Spanish triumphalism is forcing the EU to interfere in their bogus territorial claim.

In other news... the EU has announced a 1 month delay in starting the negotiations (now 22nd May) on the "Divorce Bill - this is indicative of some members not agreeing to their strategy and threats of massive compensation.

Without any supporting evidence whatsoever I suggest that the EU will prolong and prolong any proper negotiating to exact as much money as possible out of the UK to support its many "vanity projects" through our normal contributions. I also suspect that they will announce many additional infrastructure projects to exact even more money from the UK. To this I would say that the UK firmly resists any such move.

Finally, at this point, I see our contributions increasing this year and next as the UK economy outperform most of the EU member states economies...   

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Negotiations haven't even started and to date all the rhetoric is coming from the EU,  - The UK on the other hand is making a very friendly and generous offer – full tariff free access to our market, full rights for all EU citizens currently here, continuing defence and security collaboration etc.... 

Faced with this the EU is demanding a "divorce" payment that cannot even justify and so far no figure as appeared in their literature, they wont discuss citizen rights, and would rather give Spain a veto, so in theory 26 EU members could agree a deal and Spain could veto the whole lot, this is yet another hurdle put in place by the EU, the fact multiple hurdles already exist, first we have to get the EU Parliament to agree and then send it to the individual countries to vote and agree. - the UK should plan and no doubt will plan to go WTO. - anything else is a bonus. - With the world watching Its good to see the UK acting statesman like, setting the agenda. - The EU in comparison looks a bungled mess, these Brexit negotiations are going to highlight EU failings, and the seriousness of just how much reforming the EU actually needs.

The UK is speaking with one voice, the EU on the other hand with many, We've already had Jean Claude drunker, Donald Tusk, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, and that's before we even move onto complex, differing, individual countries interests. The EU is trying to put a facade, a United front. - but the signs don't look good, how long before the infighting starts?

 

 

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I agree with you on this Steve... the EU is looking far from United which makes the prospect of getting a decent deal done extremely remote. Opening phase I know, but the cracks in the EU approach are showing already.

IMO then WTO is the way to go - most foodstuffs are cheaper on the Global Market anyway, after which let the EU come clamouring to us if they want Spain and Belgium and France to sell us produce or manufactured goods.

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10 hours ago, keithisco said:

I agree with you on this Steve... the EU is looking far from United which makes the prospect of getting a decent deal done extremely remote. Opening phase I know, but the cracks in the EU approach are showing already.

IMO then WTO is the way to go - most foodstuffs are cheaper on the Global Market anyway, after which let the EU come clamouring to us if they want Spain and Belgium and France to sell us produce or manufactured goods.

I guess those in Brussels prolly have a similar view about the "united" Kingdom.

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19 hours ago, keithisco said:

I agree with you on this Steve... the EU is looking far from United which makes the prospect of getting a decent deal done extremely remote. Opening phase I know, but the cracks in the EU approach are showing already.

IMO then WTO is the way to go - most foodstuffs are cheaper on the Global Market anyway, after which let the EU come clamouring to us if they want Spain and Belgium and France to sell us produce or manufactured goods.

Why would the EU go running to Britain?  You just have to look back at Britain before they joined the predecessor of the EU, the EEC.  Before it joined in 1973 Britain's economy was going backwards at the speed of light.  In the 60's, Germany, France and Italy's GDP was almost double that of Britain and mostly thanks to the common market.  Let's also not forget that all these three countries suffered vast devastation to it's territory and industry, far more than Britain, 20 odd years earlier.  Anyone that believes Thatcherism was Britain's sole savior in the early 70's is deluded.  The common market saved Britain and now that Britain's tummy is full, they want to leave the dinner table and say goodbye by raising their middle finger. What's even more incredible is the idea that, because Britain's economy is 9th in the world per PPP, which is a more realistic measure of the value of income per capita than GDP alone, people are going to maintain the same standard of living.  IMO you're in for a megashock that'll last generations when you go alone. 

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6 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Why would the EU go running to Britain?  You just have to look back at Britain before they joined the predecessor of the EU, the EEC.  Before it joined in 1973 Britain's economy was going backwards at the speed of light.  In the 60's, Germany, France and Italy's GDP was almost double that of Britain and mostly thanks to the common market.  Let's also not forget that all these three countries suffered vast devastation to it's territory and industry, far more than Britain, 20 odd years earlier.  Anyone that believes Thatcherism was Britain's sole savior in the early 70's is deluded.  The common market saved Britain and now that Britain's tummy is full, they want to leave the dinner table and say goodbye by raising their middle finger. What's even more incredible is the idea that, because Britain's economy is 9th in the world per PPP, which is a more realistic measure of the value of income per capita than GDP alone, people are going to maintain the same standard of living.  IMO you're in for a megashock that'll last generations when you go alone. 

Your assertions do not add up in any sense (Link to Tables)

Additionally, Germany has grown fat from using a heavily undervalued currency if it was compared just to Germany's GDP. It has grown fat in several sectors exporting tariff-free to the UK just like France (although less so).

As a correction to your monologue - Thatcherism did not even exist in the early 70's

So...I re-iterate that Germany, France, Italy also Spain Belgium will have to come cap-in-hand to continue trading on favourable terms with the UK.

 

Edited by keithisco
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Isn't it interesting that so many people from Australia have such affection for the Old Country that they keep wanting to helpfully explain how stupid the Brits are. 

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19 minutes ago, keithisco said:

Your assertions do not add up in any sense (Link to Tables)

Additionally, Germany has grown fat from using a heavily undervalued currency if it was compared just to Germany's GDP. It has grown fat in several sectors exporting tariff-free to the UK just like France (although less so).

As a correction to your monologue - Thatcherism did not even exist in the early 70's

So...I re-iterate that Germany, France, Italy also Spain Belgium will have to come cap-in-hand to continue trading on favourable terms with the UK.

 

You wish. This isn't a game of who has the bigger b******s. 

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:unsure2:

Edited by Manfred von Dreidecker
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1 minute ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Isn't it interesting that so many people from Australia have such affection for the Old Country that they keep wanting to helpfully explain how stupid the Brits are. 

Yeah, because there has never been any kind of banter between the two of you. ;)

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6 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Anyone that believes Thatcherism was Britain's sole savior in the early 70's is deluded. 

She was a Time Lord as well, since she didn't come to office till 1979?

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1 minute ago, FLOMBIE said:

 

You wish. This isn't a game of who has the bigger b******s. 

Quite right... they will go cap-in-hand to the EU Negotiating team to ensure that their trade is not impacted.

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6 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

The common market saved Britain and now that Britain's tummy is full, they want to leave the dinner table and say goodbye by raising their middle finger.

So EEC membership prevented the Winter of Discontent (1978-79), and all the various and interminable miners/steel workers/car workers/railway workers etc etc strikes that would have happened throughout the 70s if it hadn't been for EEC membership?

  Your arguments are even more badly researched than poor old Ali''s.

Edited by Manfred von Dreidecker
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5 minutes ago, FLOMBIE said:

It won't be. 

I do like your posts FLOMBIE - they never contain any empirical data to support your statements.

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18 minutes ago, keithisco said:

I do like your posts FLOMBIE - they never contain any empirical data to support your statements.

That is a flat out lie. And you know it. I do make snarky remarks from time to time, but boohoo, can you only dish out?

 

All your rhetoric is about getting one over the EU. Like I said, who has the bigger b******s. That's not how it works. Both sides will work for functional trade agreements. Because that is needed - for all sides. And they will find a way that makes it possible for everyone to keep their face. 

Edited by FLOMBIE
forgot a verb
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