Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[stevewinn]

8 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

LOL, I mean what you're suggesting isn't something that I would have expected coming from you.  Basically, what you're saying is that Germany came out of WW2 financially enriched by forced labour and only the British seemed to suffer the effects of WW2 through borrowed money to pay for the war and this negative effect lasted on their economy till Thatcher came along.  Laughable to say the least Steve.

You might want to read up on the economic reforms by a certain Walter Eucken.  Nothing to do with forced labour.  I mean, Europe was in total ruins who were the Germans selling beetles to? Their only customer was the military.  Hardly what you'd call an economic boom.  In fact there was a plan to move the production of VW's to Britain to save it from being dismantled but British manufactures weren't interested.  It's fair to say it wasn't only the EEC that made the German Economy into what it is today but the EEC enhanced the economic reform that took place immediately after WW2.  And, Hugo Boss?!! 

Britain suffered WW2 like many others and it's economy never recovered until the mid 70's unlike many others.  Germany was paying $25 billion a year for the occupation post WW2 therefore your theory that Britain was paying to Defend Germany is flawed.

Finally, one of the richest natural resource regions in Germany is the Saarland.  After WW2 it was under French rule until 1957 and yet German economic recovery was already in full swing by then.

I agree it is laughable, to simple minds that is. Your obviously trying to do your home work to back up your argument, keep going and at the end piece all what you've learnt in the process and come back to us.

7 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

I agree but I'm not sure you've realised it, but you've just agreed with what I've been saying all along.  Unless you're suggesting Britain's (economical) pace was higher than that of the French and Germans and they had to slow it down in which case, you would be contradicting what you also previously said and that Britain's economy suffered post WW2 more than the Germans and French due to a variety of factors. 

I think you're starting to debate without reasoning just for the purpose of proving a point that Britain does not need Europe but Europe needs Britain.  In actual fact it's not the British so much, it's more of an English attribute of arrogance and sense of superiority. We are, many of us, basically the same people but Aussies aren't like this (in response to the question why Aussies seem interested in Brexit, obviously IMO).

What I've been saying is the pace of recovery differed between the European powers. and tried to explain, Though classed as the Victor, The British economy emerged from the war resembling that of a defeated Nation. answer me this, Britain had two and half million men across all forces, Air/Land/Sea based around the world, Europe, Africa, Middle East, India, Japan. in comparisons how many did Germany have? or France for that matter - What the UK should have done was to drop its overseas commitments and the dangers that brought and concentrated solely on the UK, rebuilding. welfare, Social,  Instead of spending large sums of limited resources on securing the security of Europe and wider world trying to contain the spread of communism, (read Russia) and the consequence of the fall of Japan with regard to Korea. postponing the Korean war by five years. - But its no surprise Britain took this course of action, i mean its not like five years earlier we ducked the war in self-preservation.

This is why i said i wanted to write more in my very first reply to yourself, it would've been to long, but at least in context which you wont get reading the odd google search. but ultimately it would have been wasted. 

So for the final time, if you cannot see the difference between rebuilding and maintaining a house (Germany) compared to an estate. Britain (global commitments) then your never going to understand or want to.

7 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

The way I can summarise it is Britain joined when it needed, whinged it's way throughout the membership, never took a leading progressive role and when things got a bit tough, said goodbye.  I agree that some of the policies in the EU (like open borders and immigration) needed better scrutinising, but nothing to suggest abandoning the ship for. 

I've mentioned this before (in the Brexit thread and this one) I have no personal interest in what happens post Brexit and the comments I make aren't fanatical or passionate.  They're just my views on an international forum.  But, from a foreign POV it does appear the UK (or rather England and Wales) have knifed the EU well and truly.

Your summary is wrong and its no surprise, Britain joined EEC,  which eventually evolved to the modern day European Union. at every single step we took part in the process if you knew $hit you'd know through that time the UK was heavy involved and wrote many of the chapters contained with the treaties. been a net contributor to the EU budget for 42 out of 43 years, with 1975 being the only year we go back more than we paid in, just so happened to be the year we held the first referendum. - You could argue the UK tried its hand at reforming the EU once again with David Camerons negotiations, - all the experts and Europhiles alike admitted the EU was not perfect and needed reform, Well, there you go, David Cameron tried and got crumbs. - as commentators at the time said, He went to Europe asking for nothing and came back with even less.

So shove your summary where it belongs.... in the dust bin. (i bet you all thought i was going to say something else)

Edited April 9, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

I have extracted the below from "El Pais" (Spanish Daily Paper) which sheds some interesting facts about the Spanish Govts. take on Brexit. I have taken it from the English on-line edition for ease of reading:

Quote

The Spanish economy will “suffer the negative consequences” of the departure of one of the country’s leading trading partners from the bloc. The situation of British nationals resident in Spain and that of Spaniards living in the United Kingdom is also a matter for concern: Brexit will lead to “innumerable repercussions” for more than one million people, says the document, which EL PAÍS has seen

Quote

The effects of Brexit will also be felt in key sectors such as agriculture, fishing, the automotive industry, and tourism, with a fall in exports of around €500 million, and up to €1 billion in the worst case scenario. The government report also expresses concern about the effect of Brexit on Spain’s leading companies: Banco Santander (some 12% of its revenue comes from the United Kingdom), Telefónica (30%) and electricity utility Iberdrola (12%), which between them make up a third of the value of the Ibex 35 index of leading Spanish companies

 

Quote

Spain is exposed: the impact of Brexit will shave between two and four tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth (equivalent to between €2 billion and €4 billion), says the report, citing the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. The government will have to find €888 million toward the EU budget, based on first estimates, while regions like Murcia or the North African exclave of Melilla could lose EU funding

Link to El Pais the whole article makes for interesting reading.

[LV-426]

5 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Racial profiling?! Beer was warm and plentiful last night huh?

 

On 09/04/2017 at 11:54 AM, Black Red Devil said:

The only ones that want to pull out are Nationalistic xenophobic Fascists

 

Can't really paint a clearer picture than with your own words.

I just don't get it. I don't understand why it is so hard for some to understand the concepts of self-determination, independence and identity at a national level. These are the things we strive for as individuals, and as with personal individuality, these concepts don't stop us from being social animals that strive to be on good terms with those around us. They don't prevent us from forming solid friendships and relationships in life.

I'm honestly not looking for an argument here. Already had enough of that in the other Brexit threads.

If you believe that my actions in wanting to leave the EU are "nationalistic, xenophobic and fascist" I'd like to see some reasonable and constructive analysis as to why, rather than misrepresentative generalizations.

[Black Red Devil]

20 hours ago, LV-426 said:

 

 

Can't really paint a clearer picture than with your own words.

I just don't get it. I don't understand why it is so hard for some to understand the concepts of self-determination, independence and identity at a national level. These are the things we strive for as individuals, and as with personal individuality, these concepts don't stop us from being social animals that strive to be on good terms with those around us. They don't prevent us from forming solid friendships and relationships in life.

I'm honestly not looking for an argument here. Already had enough of that in the other Brexit threads.

If you believe that my actions in wanting to leave the EU are "nationalistic, xenophobic and fascist" I'd like to see some reasonable and constructive analysis as to why, rather than misrepresentative generalizations.

You're being deceitful mate!  Your quote only takes in half of what I said and although the post is gone now you know that very well.  The way you cut the quote has completely a different meaning than what I wrote, intended and explained. 

The only reason I can think of is that what I wrote makes you feel guilty and you're trying to twist my words in a way that makes you feel better about your decision.  Otherwise, please explain why you shortcut my meaning?

[Space Commander Travis]

On 4/9/2017 at 11:54 AM, Black Red Devil said:

The simple answer to this is 28 countries (to become 27) in the EU willing to work together for more prosperity.  How do you explain this involvement for so many years?   The only ones that want to pull out are Nationalistic xenophobic Fascists such as the UKIP (who successfully goofed the people of the UK), Le Pen, Wilders and other fascist movements/parties who are striving on Islamic terrorism.  It's little to do with the negative impact of the EU.

The quote that was quoted was this one, which seems pretty clear, I'd have thought. And, like the notion that it was EEC membership that was responsible for Britain's economic miracle in the 1970s (splutter), it seems a very optimistic way of looking at it that all these countries are all willing to work together for the common good simply because the Eu is Worth It. For most of those along the Mediterranean, it's more because the EU, and particularly the Central Bank, has a stranglehold over them. But you'd never believe that of course, and you've probably got a graph that proves otherwise.

[keithisco]

1. Juncker; Verhofstadt; Barnier; Tajani: "The UK Shall be afforded ALL of the Rights, and ALL of the Responsibilities of membership until it leaves the EU"....

Really??
 

Quote

 

Brussels is threatening to kick our officials out of meetings to avoid the UK gaining sensitive information for after Brexit

Britain will not be shut out of the room for current EU trade talks with Australia and other countries, Dr Liam Fox declared last night.

Brussels is threatening to kick our officials out of meetings to avoid the UK gaining sensitive information after Brexit.

EU officials fear the UK could gain confidential information that would help us agree favourable terms with the same nations after we leave the EU in March 2019. but the defiant International Trade Secretary said: “We are a full partner in the EU until we leave and intend to play our full role.”

He added that Britain will “exercise our full legal rights as one of the 28 members until such time as we stop being a member”.

 

Source:

Same source (yes, I know... its The Sun) also states that the UK has already opened up informal Trade talks with 16 non-EU Nations

[alibongo]

Laughable!

[alibongo]

How ridiculous!

[alibongo]

This is crazy talk!

[Black Monk]

14 hours ago, keithisco said:

1. Juncker; Verhofstadt; Barnier; Tajani: "The UK Shall be afforded ALL of the Rights, and ALL of the Responsibilities of membership until it leaves the EU"....

Really??
 

Source:

Same source (yes, I know... its The Sun) also states that the UK has already opened up informal Trade talks with 16 non-EU Nations

Britain's most-popular newspaper.

[Black Monk]

 

Quote

On 05/04/2017 at 9:13 AM,

Manfred von Dreidecker said:

It really is puzzling how people (from Australia in particular) seem so utterly fanatical about a political union/would-be superstate on the other side of the world to them that they utterly rewrite history in an attempt to prove their point.

 

Ironically, I would wager most Australians would not want their country to be part of the European Union or anything like it. They're quite content to now have their country participating in Eurovision but most Aussies would draw a line at being part of an undemocratic, economically sclerotic, corrupt union in which they are ruled by unelected foreigners in Brussels and Strasbourg.

Yet even though they would never want their own country to join such a thing, many of them come on internet forums and lecture the British for leaving such a thing.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Black Monk

[Black Monk]

 

Quote

On 04/04/2017 at 11:01 AM,

Black Red Devil said:

Why would the EU go running to Britain?  You just have to look back at Britain before they joined the predecessor of the EU, the EEC.  Before it joined in 1973 Britain's economy was going backwards at the speed of light.  In the 60's, Germany, France and Italy's GDP was almost double that of Britain and mostly thanks to the common market.  Let's also not forget that all these three countries suffered vast devastation to it's territory and industry, far more than Britain, 20 odd years earlier.  Anyone that believes Thatcherism was Britain's sole savior in the early 70's is deluded.  The common market saved Britain and now that Britain's tummy is full, they want to leave the dinner table and say goodbye by raising their middle finger. What's even more incredible is the idea that, because Britain's economy is 9th in the world per PPP, which is a more realistic measure of the value of income per capita than GDP alone, people are going to maintain the same standard of living.  IMO you're in for a megashock that'll last generations when you go alone.[/quote]

It was British government economic policies, most notably those of Thatcher and the Conservatives, which helped the British economy back on its feet. It was nothing to do with the EUSSR.

Quote

In the 60's, Germany, France and Italy's GDP was almost double that of Britain

Absoloute hogwash. In 1960 Britain was the world's fourth-largest economy after the USA, USSR and West Germany.

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by Black Monk

[stevewinn]

18 hours ago, keithisco said:

1. Juncker; Verhofstadt; Barnier; Tajani: "The UK Shall be afforded ALL of the Rights, and ALL of the Responsibilities of membership until it leaves the EU"....

Really??
 

Source:

Same source (yes, I know... its The S*n) also states that the UK has already opened up informal Trade talks with 16 non-EU Nations

On Trade. Just this month alone and the last 5 months the UK Government officials led by Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade Dr Liam Fox have visited and held discussions for post brexit trade deals and investment in the following countries. 

• April - Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia.
• March - Commonwealth trade and investment meeting held in Malta. 52 trade ministers representing 52 countries/states. - in the same month they visited Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
• February - India, Vietnam and Singapore.
• January - Canada, Australia, New Zealand, China & Hong Kong and Kuwait.
• December - Brazil, Sri Lanka and South Korea. - and UK Mission Geneva (trade forum, United Nations, World Trade Organisation and other international Organisations)
• November - Japan, Mexico, Peru, Chile.

Just a small snap shot on what is happening:

 

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by stevewinn

[hetrodoxly]

My local MP should sort it out.

 

Edited April 16, 2017 by hetrodoxly

[Space Commander Travis]

11 hours ago, hetrodoxly said:

My local MP should sort it out.

 

"Tired of being told what to do by unerected bureauprats led by the German Chancellor Angular Meerkat..."  

"And Brierley 'Ill Market has already seen a 10% fall in the sales of its bootleg DVDs." 

Edited April 17, 2017 by Manfred von Dreidecker

[hetrodoxly]

1 hour ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

"Tired of being told what to do by unerected bureauprats led by the German Chancellor Angular Meerkat..."  

"And Brierley 'Ill Market has already seen a 10% fall in the sales of its bootleg DVDs." 

It might need some explanation to our none British members  a 'yam yam' is someone from the Black country called so because they use yam instead of 'you' or 'your' ie 

Yam mad "you're mad" Yam gooin to the pub "are you going to the pub" 

[stevewinn]

Seeing how the Brexit Negotiations with the EU haven't started in earnest.

what sort of backdrop could the negotiations be played out -in front of,  we still have the looming elections in EU member countries, particularly in France.

keeping a close eye on the French elections. - It's now closer than close;

• Macron 23%,
• Le Pen 22% (anti-EU)
• Mélenchon 20% (anti-EU)
• Fillon 20% 
• All 4 main candidates within 3% margin of error

If either Le Pen or Mélenchon win then another EU membership Referendum will be held, probably sometime in 2018. for us that would be in the second year of the Brexit negotiations. The shock of Le Pen or Mélenchon winning could possibly send the Euro currency into its second crisis, its not beyond the realms of possibility that could trigger a vote in Italy on the continuation of the Euro currency at that stage all bets are off, it will be a full blown crisis for which the Euro will not survive taking those economies down with it, - resulting in numerous countries hitting the exit button. - at that point there would be no point in continuing Brexit negotiations as there would be nothing left of worth to negotiate with. Germany would take a serious hit to its economy of somewhere in the region of 15% to 20%. - the whole thing could plough Europe into a depression - a buoyed Russia could seize the moment. 

We live in interesting times.

[keithisco]

Germany still pushing for 2nd UK referendum... like we cannot see the ploy to offer awful terms to convince the UK electorate to change its mind. Talk about being in La La land

 

Quote

 

Downing Street today rejected a call from a senior German politician for Britons to be given a chance to change their minds about Brexit.

Katarina Barley, the general secretary of Germany’s SPD party, became the most senior European figure to propose that the UK should hold a second referendum once the divorce terms are clear.

“When the referendum was held, nobody really knew what it would be about — not the British people, not even the political class,” she said.

“A lot of people wrongfully thought that Britain could get a deal like Switzerland or Norway without the inconveniences ... without free movement of labour. Now they know that this isn’t the case.”

Her position echoes that of Britain’s Liberal Democrats. However, No 10 flatly rejected the idea. A spokesman for Theresa May said: “The British people delivered a clear position. I would point you to the Prime Minister’s words when she triggered Article 50 and said ‘there is no going back’. That is our position.”

 

Source:

This is why I believe that we have committed to 2 years of vacuous, meaningless, and quite honestly, spiteful recriminations from the EUrocrats. Utterly pointless waste of time, but lets play their game - get to the point of being able to sign FTA's with our friends then pull the rug out from under the EU's "negotiating team" by giving 2 weeks notice of withdrawal

 

Hard to believe that we are still at the starting point of negotiations and the German contingent are already showing their gameplan.

Edited April 17, 2017 by keithisco

[LV-426]

17 hours ago, hetrodoxly said:

My local MP should sort it out.

 

Best laugh I've had in a while. Thanks for this one

[stevewinn]

7 hours ago, keithisco said:

Germany still pushing for 2nd UK referendum... like we cannot see the ploy to offer awful terms to convince the UK electorate to change its mind. Talk about being in La La land

 

Source:

This is why I believe that we have committed to 2 years of vacuous, meaningless, and quite honestly, spiteful recriminations from the EUrocrats. Utterly pointless waste of time, but lets play their game - get to the point of being able to sign FTA's with our friends then pull the rug out from under the EU's "negotiating team" by giving 2 weeks notice of withdrawal

 

Hard to believe that we are still at the starting point of negotiations and the German contingent are already showing their gameplan.

The EU has to be realistic and honest, they've never negotiated any trade deal or anything else for that matter in less than four years. it took them five years and 2,000 directives to classify toothpaste.

The EU commission, council and parliment proposed the EU needed a new definition of chocolate, because what we'd been calling chocolate wasn't chocolate well not until the EU defined it,   so they passed not only directives but then a regulation it took 4 years. 

Look at trade deals, Canada 10 years, (2017 and not yet ratified) 7 years South Korea (in force 2015)  Mexico 5 years (in force 2000). - over the years its taken the EU longer and longer to conclude trade deals than it did two decades earlier. - where the EU should have been becoming more efficient they've been inept, as they crush themselves under layers and weight of bureaucracy. 

Its clear for all to see, its beyond the EU's ability to conclude any Brexit deal in the two year time frame, the fact they've never had to deal with a member triggering Article 50, they haven't got a clue, they're all at sea. even the author of Article 50 famously said it was never meant to be used/triggered. 

We take the full 2 year grace period and use it to our advantage, as it's our advantage. - negotiate FTA's with 3rd party countries, sign agreements which come into force on X-date, that date to be chosen by the UK government and kept secret and separate from the EU negotiations. and when all the pieces are in place the government gives indications and announcements of the deals with 3rd party countries. - then on x-date we announce negotiations are over and FTA's with 3rd party countries announced. - something along the lines of the EU was unable to agree terms on a trade deal, as such we were unable to proceed and have brought negotiations to a close. - but on positive note where EU negotiations have failed, the UK Gov't as been working hard and signed free trade agreement(s) with anyone one of these countries Australia, New Zealand, Canada, India, Malaysia, South Korea, and Brazil. which will come into force on x date. - it would be a damning indictment of the EU even if the UK signed just one FTA, it would show where the EU failed the UK succeed.

Okay i know, the UK signing FTA's in that time frame is unlikely, But not impossible, because the talks will be held with willing partners, a clear willingness of mindset from the outset. we'd be sat around the table one to one. - in comparison EU negotiations from the outset will be with a unwilling partner(s) seeking political recompense. with many speaking with many voices and self-interests, from EU institutions to individual countries.

Canada has to be favourite for the first FTA, as they've recently signed but yet to be ratified trade deal with the EU so common standards already exist between the UK and Canada. but i'd love Australia, New Zealand to sign a FTA as they've shown a willingness and even offered the UK advice and help in areas of negotiating if the need arises. 

FTA on x-date with Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India would send a message. But as you've rightly said Keith the EU negotiations with be pointless. that's why above i think we should press ahead with others and no doubt British civil servants and ministers can see this also. trouble is how do you play it politically. So far im happy the way the British Government has handled the situation. The not wanting to be part of the single market torpedoed 99% of the EU negotiating possibilities - it was a move they never seen coming.

 

[keithisco]

Somebody in the "United EU27 Team" has been leaking....
 

Quote

 

The European Union is expecting Britain to pay the full cost of relocating two major EU agencies from London back to the EU after Brexit, in the latest signal that Brussels intends to play hardball over the costs of UK withdrawal from Europe.

The plan, revealed in a leaked draft of the European Commission’s Brexit negotiating mandate, looks certain to raise the temperature of the debate over Britain’s so-called ‘Brexit bill’.

 

LINK:

... to add to this is the determination by the "Popular Front for a United EU27" (still trying to work in a "Life of Brian" simile ) to include the relocation costs, in total, to the UK Divorce Bill. One problem with this is that there is no technical reason to move them, purely political. The 2 agencies can function just as well where they are.

Looking forward to some more leaks 

[keithisco]

...amongst other information coming out with regards to the EU/UK divorce bill is the rather bizarre demand from Brussels that this "bill" must be paid in Euros. Somebody put me right, but as far as I am aware the Euro is not the official monetary unit of the EU?

Some "genius" at the ECB clearly believes that the UK will help to support the Euro by buying 50-60 Billion euros (not that the UK will pay any such amount) and hand it over to Brussels.

I actually think that if we pay any amount of money over (I don't believe we will) then it will of course be paid in any legal tender of our choice.

[Space Commander Travis]

In the News today: Labour is Confused Over Brexit. Peter Mandelson believes that what it needs is for, er, him to come back.

 

[keithisco]

4 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

In the News today: Labour is Confused Over Brexit. Peter Mandelson believes that what it needs is for, er, him to come back.

 

Yay!! We could have Bliar AND Mandelson back again.....{{Looks for passport]]

[LV-426]

4 hours ago, keithisco said:

Yay!! We could have Bliar AND Mandelson back again.....{{Looks for passport]]

Seeing as Labour today pledged to unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU residents living in Britain, while not demanding the same for their own countrymen abroad, probably best to replace that passport with a German one