Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[Space Commander Travis]

I rather think of the EU as a string of onions around the neck of a stereotypical French onion cellar in a beret on a bike. 

[stevewinn]

On 5/6/2017 at 6:00 AM, Captain Risky said:

The Brexit mandate just wasn't big enough. It's a political football that's being kicked back outta the goal box every time May kicks it in. Britain will suffer as a consequence. 

Prediction: The EU will want to keep Brexit going for as long and laboriously as possible until economic uncertainty brings a pro European party in Britain to power. 

The Brexit mandate just wasn't big enough? No, you seem to have democracy all wrong. The Referendum was 100% legitimate, thanks to Gina Miller & Unknowns that issue was put to bed. and thats before we take into account - More people voted for Brexit than had voted for anything in the History of the UK.

As for your prediction; its complete nonsense, at this point staying would do more damage than leaving, even without a deal.

Edited May 7, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

Looking back on events since Article 50 was triggered:

1. The EU27 came up with the idea that there will be a divorce bill to pay
2. The House of Lords Brexit cttee established there was no legal basis that meant the UK had anything to pay
3. The EU27 came up with a figure of 50-60 Billion euros for the Bill
4. Spain lobbies to have Gibraltar excluded from any deal - basically to demean and humiliate the UK position.
5. The EU27 refused, and still refuses, to discuss any trade matters until the UK agrees to pay the Bill
6. A private meeting between Theresa May and the Commission leaders was "leaked" to allow the leaders to humiliate and demean the UK's democratically elected leader.
7. The Bill increases to 100 Billion euros, with no substantiation for even the original Bill 
8. Poland and France successfully  lobby  the Commission team to insist that The UK continue farm support to the EU after Brexit

Taking these items collectively shows the true nature of the EU27 negotiating stance - there isn't one that shows any intention to strike a trade deal and the longer this pathetic nonsense of treating the Commission with any sort of respect is dragged out only serves to further demean the UK. Is it not time to show the EU27 that they are not dealing with a supplicant. If they really want to impoverish major sectors in their own economies then they are going to do just that.

The UK should say loudly and clearly that it will not permit their puerile attitude to prevail, and rock up to the next meeting with a big "so long and thanks for all the fish" farewell card and pull out of any further negotiations whilst announcing that Official FTA negotiations have started with 3rd countries. Just watch them squirm and cry "foul" then.  

 

[stevewinn]

5 hours ago, keithisco said:

Looking back on events since Article 50 was triggered:

1. The EU27 came up with the idea that there will be a divorce bill to pay
2. The House of Lords Brexit cttee established there was no legal basis that meant the UK had anything to pay
3. The EU27 came up with a figure of 50-60 Billion euros for the Bill
4. Spain lobbies to have Gibraltar excluded from any deal - basically to demean and humiliate the UK position.
5. The EU27 refused, and still refuses, to discuss any trade matters until the UK agrees to pay the Bill
6. A private meeting between Theresa May and the Commission leaders was "leaked" to allow the leaders to humiliate and demean the UK's democratically elected leader.
7. The Bill increases to 100 Billion euros, with no substantiation for even the original Bill 
8. Poland and France successfully  lobby  the Commission team to insist that The UK continue farm support to the EU after Brexit

Taking these items collectively shows the true nature of the EU27 negotiating stance - there isn't one that shows any intention to strike a trade deal and the longer this pathetic nonsense of treating the Commission with any sort of respect is dragged out only serves to further demean the UK. Is it not time to show the EU27 that they are not dealing with a supplicant. If they really want to impoverish major sectors in their own economies then they are going to do just that.

The UK should say loudly and clearly that it will not permit their puerile attitude to prevail, and rock up to the next meeting with a big "so long and thanks for all the fish" farewell card and pull out of any further negotiations whilst announcing that Official FTA negotiations have started with 3rd countries. Just watch them squirm and cry "foul" then.  

 

Totally agree.

these negotiations are exposing the EU as the shambles it is, the UK has acted totally professional the EU on the other hand has had drunken leaks of a private meeting. the €50 to €100 billion not officially presented instead "leaked" to the Financial Times, which was later renounced by the House of Lords EU Financial Affairs Sub-Committee which stated in a report published 4th March 17 that “under international law the UK will not be legally obliged to contribute to the EU budget if an agreement is not reached at the end of Article 50 negotiations” and if the reports in the Telegraph today are to be believed, that the "€100bn Brexit bill is ‘legally impossible’ to enforce, European Commission’s own lawyers admit"

Then the EU tries it on with Gibraltar, then raises the question of a united Ireland, (which in my mind as well and truly overstepped the mark and by some way)

The EU stated the UK can only speak and negotiate with the EU's negotiating team headed by Michel Barnier, and that was the route the UK took, but the next minute EU president Jean Claude Juncker is going round, leaking information,  making speeches without approval of the EU's brexit team, literally the Council doesn't know what the commission is doing and the commission doesn't know what the EU President is doing. Donald Tusk needs to keep Juncker away from the drinks trolley. 

We've said it many times on here, the European Union isn't united over the Brexit negotiations, the council wants to protect jobs, markets and economies the commission on the other hand with its bunker mentality "all is well in the union, the union is strong" just seeks to punish the UK. - The UK has to plan for WTO and talk to the countries in the EU that'll be most affected by Brexit, and make it clear that the fault lies with the EU, which demonstrates to these states the consequences of what it is to be a vassal state of the European Union, if they are not happy they can through the EU council challenge the EU commission. The "united" EU as already sowed the seeds of self-division with their policies. 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2017 by stevewinn

[Unusual Tournament]

10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The Brexit mandate just wasn't big enough? No, you seem to have democracy all wrong. The Referendum was 100% legitimate, thanks to Gina Miller & Unknowns that issue was put to bed. and thats before we take into account - More people voted for Brexit than had voted for anything in the History of the UK.

As for your prediction; its complete nonsense, at this point staying would do more damage than leaving, even without a deal.

Oh I think I have an excellent handle on what democracy is. Not suggesting that EU supporters are locked out of the democratic process are you? It's certainly not falling across the line, especially with something as transformative as Brexit. The result does stand but in no way is it mandate enough to forgo anymore discussion on the topic. Nor does it exclude further political intervention if the opportunity arises. If May and the brexiteers can move Brexit forward without the 48% that voted against then more power to them. But the result is not wide enough for permanent shift. It's not a blank cheque. May has to negotiate a deal, it will be scrutinised and with only the smallest margin of support (mandate) she will need to first sell it and then pass it. Are you gonna get a good deal?

But all that means zero in the end if May can't get a better deal. It would only need a small shift in support to get the whole process swinging the other way again. 

 

[Unusual Tournament]

...and that stevewinn is democracy.

[keithisco]

I think in all of this Captain Risky, you are assuming that any deal is entirely within the remit of Mrs May. It needs the EU27 Negotiating team to actually have a desire to reach an agreement with the UK. As time goes on, with people like Junker, and various other unelected national mouthpieces sticking their "oar" in it is becoming increasingly evident that this is not the case.

The PM will have no option but to call time on these jokers as they try their damndest to appear "smart" and "in charge" and they are the ones with absolutely nothing to lose. As realism sinks in and the UK population as a whole sees the EU for the domineering, inflexible and corrupt cartel that it represents then its fate will truly be consigned to the annals of historic insignificance.

My only regret is that continental Europe has not yet truly woken up yet and for those nations the future is very bleak, especially within the Eurozone. The working people of continental Europe will be the first sacrificed on the Altar of EU Incompetence with their producers suddenly faced with a much smaller marketplace for their artificially inflated prices that cannot compete in a global world.

I have already given up on the EU Commissars doing anything other than show off like petulant schoolchildren... there is no deal to be made. Prepare for WTO, withdraw  and leave as soon as is humanly possible

[Unusual Tournament]

Keith,

Any deal other than soft or hard Brexit is a dream. You just will not get the best of both worlds. The entire premise of Brexit is outside of the EU. Hoping for a better deal from Europe so you can successfully scorn them is hysterically crazy and self defeating.

When Merkel, Hollande and Juncker say that May is deluded you should all pay attention to what is do able and what is just pure insanity.

Regardless of what the brexit people think of Europe the UK cannot leave Europe as envisaged by the original Brexit argument for to do so would economically harm it. May realises this even if you won't. 

 

Edited May 7, 2017 by Captain Risky

[stevewinn]

15 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Oh I think I have an excellent handle on what democracy is. Not suggesting that EU supporters are locked out of the democratic process are you? It's certainly not falling across the line, especially with something as transformative as Brexit. The result does stand but in no way is it mandate enough to forgo anymore discussion on the topic. Nor does it exclude further political intervention if the opportunity arises. If May and the brexiteers can move Brexit forward without the 48% that voted against then more power to them. But the result is not wide enough for permanent shift. It's not a blank cheque. May has to negotiate a deal, it will be scrutinised and with only the smallest margin of support (mandate) she will need to first sell it and then pass it. Are you gonna get a good deal?

But all that means zero in the end if May can't get a better deal. It would only need a small shift in support to get the whole process swinging the other way again. 

 

you say you have a excellent handle on what democracy is and then go and write the above.

12 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Keith,

Any deal other than soft or hard Brexit is a dream. You just will not get the best of both worlds. The entire premise of Brexit is outside of the EU. Hoping for a better deal from Europe so you can successfully scorn them is hysterically crazy and self defeating.

When Merkel, Hollande and Juncker say that May is deluded you should all pay attention to what is do able and what is just pure insanity.

Regardless of what the brexit people think of Europe the UK cannot leave Europe as envisaged by the original Brexit argument for to do so would economically harm it. May realises this even if you won't. 

 

what is the economic consequences for the EU if the UK leaves without a deal.

 

Edited May 8, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

I think, as has been mentioned many times, that a short term economic hit is preferable to being dragged further into the "Grande Vision" of the unelected Eurocrats and Merkel. As reported in the Telegraph over the weekend the French farmers are ready to dump kilotonnes of cow "manure" in the Champs Elysee if their produce is subjected to WTO tariffs due to the Commission's blundering and offensive remarks aimed at the UK.

It is time for our negotiators to start setting the terms of these talks - it is reprehensible for the EU27 team to say that our PM is not allowed at these talks - just who the heck do they think they are?? Demand that the UK, and the UK ONLY, will decide who is on their team and who can represent the UK during discussions. If "we" want to make changes to the team then we sure as heck don't need to ask permission of the EU27.

87% of World Trade is outside of the EU and we have enough partners wanting to do deals that we should care less about trade into the  EU. Global food prices are considerably lower than the prices we have to pay as a member of the EU 

You cannot negotiate with these jokers so I hope Theresa May will get a large enough mandate to go to the Commons and simply state that no deal is even possible because the will is not there from the Commission.

Just for the record Captain Risky: I neither want a "soft" Brexit or a "hard" Brexit - I want a clean Brexit, it's what was offered at the referendum and it is the option that I chose. I do not want to remain a member of the EU, I do not want to be a member of any of its regulatory institutions just a member of the research and development initiatives that are open to any nation anyway. 

 

Edited May 8, 2017 by keithisco

[stevewinn]

17 minutes ago, keithisco said:

I think, as has been mentioned many times, that a short term economic hit is preferable to being dragged further into the "Grande Vision" of the unelected Eurocrats and Merkel. As reported in the Telegraph over the weekend the French farmers are ready to dump kilotonnes of cow "manure" in the Champs Elysee if their produce is subjected to WTO tariffs due to the Commission's blundering and offensive remarks aimed at the UK.

It is time for our negotiators to start setting the terms of these talks - it is reprehensible for the EU27 team to say that our PM is not allowed at these talks - just who the heck do they think they are?? Demand that the UK, and the UK ONLY, will decide who is on their team and who can represent the UK during discussions. If "we" want to make changes to the team then we sure as heck don't need to ask permission of the EU27.

87% of World Trade is outside of the EU and we have enough partners wanting to do deals that we should care less about trade into the  EU. Global food prices are considerably lower than the prices we have to pay as a member of the EU 

You cannot negotiate with these jokers so I hope Theresa May will get a large enough mandate to go to the Commons and simply state that no deal is even possible because the will is not there from the Commission.

 

The British Government will be planning for WTO, If the EU wants to put tariffs up against us, it can only do so to a limited extent under WTO rules and It would be a lot cheaper than the bills we are hearing about from Druncker etc.... In return we can impose more tariffs on them given the nature and volume of their exports to us, that'll be a costly option for them, of course its always possible they wish to self harm, However, it seems it is more the EU Commission that favours a tough approach as the harm is to the member states, not to the Commission itself. The member states are more likely to wake up to the harm it could do their export companies and especially their farmers and want a more sensible approach and that's what i alluded to in a previous post, on how and why the EU will end up divided.

you only have to look at the €100billion figure, when Theresa May hit back outside downing street, Donald Tusk started saying lets calm down, because even he knew the figure was a joke and could not be enforced, and Tusk knows if there was any good will by the UK to pay a smaller figure as part of a deal it was rabidly going out the window thanks to the Juncker.

Edited May 8, 2017 by stevewinn

[quillius]

personally I would rather have stayed in the EU at the time of voting, albeit I never voted myself.

 

However, since we voted, the stance taken by the EU has changed my view somewhat and I am glad we opted out. I just hope we have strong enough leaders who will stand our ground and hit back hard at the bullying tactics that seem to be being employed.

I think its about time we called some of these bluffs....

 

edit to add: my reason for wishing to staying was simply a case of 'rather not rock the boat'...nothing more nothing less.

 

Edited May 8, 2017 by quillius

[spud the mackem]

2 hours ago, quillius said:

personally I would rather have stayed in the EU at the time of voting, albeit I never voted myself.

 

However, since we voted, the stance taken by the EU has changed my view somewhat and I am glad we opted out. I just hope we have strong enough leaders who will stand our ground and hit back hard at the bullying tactics that seem to be being employed.

I think its about time we called some of these bluffs....

 

edit to add: my reason for wishing to staying was simply a case of 'rather not rock the boat'...nothing more nothing less.

 

At least you are honest ref your non vote but its time to stand up and be counted, we are Out no turning back, so your vote will be counted in June. Start rocking the boat ,cheers. 

[stevewinn]

21 hours ago, quillius said:

personally I would rather have stayed in the EU at the time of voting, albeit I never voted myself.

 

However, since we voted, the stance taken by the EU has changed my view somewhat and I am glad we opted out. I just hope we have strong enough leaders who will stand our ground and hit back hard at the bullying tactics that seem to be being employed.

I think its about time we called some of these bluffs....

 

edit to add: my reason for wishing to staying was simply a case of 'rather not rock the boat'...nothing more nothing less.

 

And believe me your not alone in changing your mind somewhat, its only anecdotal but there are a few people i know who voted Remain and have since changed their mind, as the EU is exposed, and this is before we get into the nitty gritty and the true cost of our membership is highlighted and here im not just talking about monetary terms.

[quillius]

22 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

And believe me your not alone in changing your mind somewhat, its only anecdotal but there are a few people i know who voted Remain and have since changed their mind, as the EU is exposed, and this is before we get into the nitty gritty and the true cost of our membership is highlighted and here im not just talking about monetary terms.

Agreed. I would also add that irrespective of your vote, or indeed if for example you voted remain but the country voted to leave....I think you need to stand by the decision and stand firm together. I think its the same for everyday life. both personal and work, if a decision is made, whether you agree with it or not you need to go with it and support it...stay together and standing firm is vital and will in itself give the country the best chance of a favourable outcome. If we allow ourselves to be manipulated, influenced  into a split country then we simply are setting ourselves up for a rough ride.

as the Godfather said 'never take sides with anyone against the family'.

[keithisco]

Tomorrows hearing (UK/EU27 nationals in other countries) in Brussels is outlined below. I note that the scope covers nationals either actually living in, or having lived in, the UK/UK27... does this mean that having lived in the UK at some point in time then EU27 nationals may be given an automatic right to return??
 

Quote

 

11-05-2017 - The situation and rights of EU citizens in the UK

LIBE EMPL PETI 10-05-2017 - 15:26

In its Resolution of 5 April 2017 on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its notification that it intends to withdraw from the European Union, the European Parliament advocated for the fair treatment of EU-27 citizens living or having lived in the United Kingdom and of United Kingdom citizens living or having lived in the EU-27.

The EP also demanded that the status and rights of EU-27 citizens residing in the United Kingdom and of United Kingdom citizens residing in the EU-27 be subject to the principles of reciprocity, equity, symmetry and non-discrimination. There are many aspects to be taken into account when analysing the situation of those citizens:

the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs,

the Committee on Civil Liberties,

Justice and Home Affairs and the

Committee on Petitions will hold a joint hearing on the situation of EU citizens in the UK on 11 May 2017 from 15.00 to 18.30 in room Paul-Henri Spaak (PHS) 3C050.

 

Source:

Below is the Executive Summary extracted from "The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens  living in the EU-27" which will be the main study on which this hearing will be informed:

 

Quote

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union will have undeniable consequences for the legal status, rights and duties of UK nationals living in the remaining 27 EU Member States and of EU citizens living in the United Kingdom from the moment such withdrawal takes effect. In a bid to minimise these consequences, it has been suggested that what doctrine and case law called, a century ago, the acquired rights of individuals might still apply today and be of use in the case of Brexit.

  
This study examines the possibilities of using the concept of acquired rights to safeguard and maintain the rights of these individuals following the UK’s withdrawal. The study therefore looks into the judicial precedents, some international documents and doctrine and concludes that there are no acquired rights with regard to the rights contained in the status of European citizenship and in relation to the four fundamental freedoms of the single market. However, in international law there is nothing to prevent the withdrawal agreement itself from providing protection for the rights and freedoms of nationals of the States parties – granted to date by EU law – for a transitional period or beyond, as if EU law extended its applicability for the people covered by it thus far. Therefore, in view of the two possible scenarios (withdrawal with or without agreement), it would always be better for the citizens on both sides if the negotiators reached an agreement.

  
Articles 9 TEU and 20.1 TFEU stipulate that Union citizenship is additional to and does not replace national citizenship. Thus, every person holding the nationality of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. The European Union’s obligation to respect the rights covered by the status of European citizenship and the four freedoms of the single market is limited, as a result, to those persons who hold the nationality of a Member State. The subjective rights conferred by EU law on nationals of a Member State derive from their condition as citizens of that Member State. Consequently, UK nationals will lose those rights from the moment the United Kingdom withdraws.  

Meanwhile, the EU Treaties and secondary legislation will remain in full effect until the United Kingdom’s negotiations with the European Union are completed or for two years after the country’s notification of its intention to withdraw if, in the latter case, the agreement referred to in Article 50 TEU has not been reached.

  
Irrespective of whether there is an agreement or not, the European Convention on Human Rights will continue to offer a means of defending the right to residence and other related rights, such as the right to private and family life and the right to private property, for as long as the ECHR remains part of UK law

 

 

[stevewinn]

On 5/10/2017 at 10:43 PM, keithisco said:

Tomorrows hearing (UK/EU27 nationals in other countries) in Brussels is outlined below. I note that the scope covers nationals either actually living in, or having lived in, the UK/UK27... does this mean that having lived in the UK at some point in time then EU27 nationals may be given an automatic right to return??
 

Source:

Below is the Executive Summary extracted from "The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens  living in the EU-27" which will be the main study on which this hearing will be informed:

 

 

Linked to your post on ctizens rights; I seen a interview with David Davis our Brexit negotiator, he was asked the question what was Jean Claude Juncker referring to when after his meeting with Theresa May Juncker called Theresa May "deluded". It turns out a month earlier the UK Government had a meeting with the EU (Donald Tusk) where the UK said to the EU, lets sort out the rights of our citizens and we'll discuss and put in place a policy when we next meet, and both sides agreed - fast forward to the next meeting the Theresa May, EU President Jean Claude Juncker "dinner" and when the UK said right as we agreed last month what policy do you have concerning citizens rights, the EU had nothing, they turned up empty handed, and that's why Jean Claude Juncker called May deluded because she expected them to stick to what they agreed to, apparently the EU was unable to agree amongst themselves any sort of policy during that 4 week period. and according to the EU its a priority to sort out citizens rights.

It highlights just how ineffective the EU is, and just how little time they have set aside or invested for Brexit.

moving on, YouGov poll. 69% of people want the Government to carry out the duty off the Referendum.

Edited May 14, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

I note today that Macron (the French bloke-oh yes the new French President)is going to the seat of EU power (Berlin) to meet with the Obermeister (Frau Merkel) to discuss his plans for reforming and renewing the EU. Good luck with that because at the moment it is heavily, if not exclusively, biased towards supporting and aggrandising the German economy.

He also says that he is going to "liberalise" employment law to support Industry leaders in France to make sacking people easier - cue demonstrations and riots

[Black Monk]

34 minutes ago, keithisco said:

I note today that Macron (the French bloke-oh yes the new French President)is going to the seat of EU power (Berlin) to meet with the Obermeister (Frau Merkel) to discuss his plans for reforming and renewing the EU

Cameron tried that - and then look what happened.

[LV-426]

I see Merkel just had something of a domestic victory too, so she'll no doubt be feeling boisterous with her EU ambitions:

Angela Merkel's CDU 'seizes key state from rivals'

[keithisco]

From the Merkel-Macron "summit" today:

Quote

Mrs Merkel said she was open to Mr Macron's proposal for a "buy European act" that would stop non-EU companies bidding for public contracts inside the EU

Source:

Yet another protectionist plan from the EU, stifling competition. How stuffed will the EU be if every external EU nation adopted a policy of not allowing EU companies to bid for public contracts. Just think of SNECMA, Safran, Acciona, SBS, telefonica, XXL  with their multi-billion pound contracts outside of the EU. Where is the incentive for EU companies to operate on the global stage?

[Space Commander Travis]

8 hours ago, keithisco said:

From the Merkel-Macron "summit" today:

Source:

Yet another protectionist plan from the EU, stifling competition. How stuffed will the EU be if every external EU nation adopted a policy of not allowing EU companies to bid for public contracts. Just think of SNECMA, Safran, Acciona, SBS, telefonica, XXL  with their multi-billion pound contracts outside of the EU. Where is the incentive for EU companies to operate on the global stage?

That would mean that, for instance, Boeing or Lockheed Martin would be prohibited from bidding to supply European governments. Do you think that they, and their government, would be pleased about this? It might save the Danish, Netherlands, Italian and Norwegian Air Forces from having to fulfill their contracts to buy the F-35 Turkey II, mind... 

[Space Commander Travis]

Look at them! Don't they look like the presenters of a daytime game show. 

[LV-426]

3 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Look at them! Don't they look like the presenters of a daytime game show. 

Which one?

Are we talking The Price is Right or Deal or No Deal?

[Space Commander Travis]

perhaps Pointless.