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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco

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We cant be that bad in European eyes, compared to how Capt Risky and Ozy view us...

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The number of German, Italian and French nationals applying for British citizenship has more than trebled in three years as the impact of the referendum is felt, government data has revealed.

Almost 30,000 EU nationals applied to become British citizens between June 2016 and June 2017, double the previous year.

By volume, Poles topped the list of those seeking British citizenship in the past three years with just under 6,200 applying in the year to June 2017, up 44% on the previous year.

The sharpest rise in applications was among Germans, whose applications jumped from 797 in the year to June 2016 to 2,338 in the year to June 2017. The number of Italians opting for citizenship rose from 1,109 to 2,950 for the same period, while the number of Spanish almost tripled from about 500 to approximately 1,400

 

Source: YES it really IS The Guardian!

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1 hour ago, keithisco said:

We cant be that bad in European eyes, compared to how Capt Risky and Ozy view us...

Source: YES it really IS The Guardian!

No wonder the people in the rest of Europe aren't being give a referendum, I think the powers that be know what the outcome would be.

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15 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

chlorine

I've been swiming in it since i was a kid, good to know i'm not fit for human consumption.

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On 09/08/2018 at 11:13 AM, stevewinn said:

Their stance is firmly behind big Govt, big multinational organisations, goldman sachs Etal, your George soros's of this world. You can't help but notice the two main contributors for the remain side are not even citizens from the UK but @Captain Risky from Oz and the mouth from the south@Ozymandias

Both have a anti-british trait, and that's why their here. The mask slipped on more than one occasion.

Rumbled by an *******. I'm gutted!

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17 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Rumbled by an *******. I'm gutted!

What's up mouth from the south. Potato.

Moving on.

What's happening to Turkey's currency, lira as fell 12%. ECB panic as Spain (€83Bn) France (€35Bn) & Italian (€18Bn) banking exposure. Let's hope it doesn't spread. :D Spain owns 50% of Garanti Bank, UniCredit 40% of Yapi Kredi.

Let's finish on some good news, UK economy growth 0.4% Eurozone 0.3%. Direction of travel UK 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%. Eurozone. 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% eurozone trend going into reverse, seeing the effects of the ECBs decision to stop QE by years end. ECB been buying Eurozone debt at £80Bn a month after September it'll be £15Bn a month. The programe started 2015 was to end 2016, but reality 2018. Total exposure ECB debt £2.5Trillion. Let's hope nothing goes wrong to make matters worse. Greeks get their final bailout payment this month £12Bn. Greek debt 180% of GDP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I have been wondering just why the "younger" electorate are so incensed at having lost (massively) the referendum, and been heaping scorn, threats, and vile abuse on the (mostly) older voters who dared to burst their little bubble of self-possessed entitlement. You would think that they would be gagging to have another referendum so they could turn out in their masses to "correct" the vote... It would appear not:

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This difference of outlook is reflected in attitudes towards holding a second referendum.

Younger people are much keener on the idea of revisiting the Brexit vote.

Asked whether there should be a referendum on whether to accept the terms of Britain's exit from the EU once they have been agreed, about half of 18 to 24 year-olds say they are in favour of another poll.

Only three in 10 of those aged 65 and over hold that view.

However, only half of 18 to 24-year-olds said that they would be certain to vote in a second EU referendum, according to recent polls by Survation. This compares with 84% of those aged 65 and over.

So if there were another ballot, it is far from certain that young people would necessarily take the opportunity to register their distinctive views.

 

  Source:

So...whilst we are led to believe that the younger voters felt they were not suitably represented and are busy stomping their precious feet to get a re-run, the reality is that they just cant be bothered to vote anyway but like to scream and shout for no good reason. Just IMO by the way:whistle:

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Turkish Lira fallen 20%. Alarm bells ringing at the ECB, incase of contagion.

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10 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Turkish Lira fallen 20%. Alarm bells ringing at the ECB, incase of contagion.

BBVA (Spain) is particularly exposed if this continues ($84Bn dollars of potential non-performing debt)... as you would say, interesting times ahead

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3 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Turkish Lira fallen 20%. Alarm bells ringing at the ECB, incase of contagion.

...I think the EU and ECB is more concerned with Turkey not opening the refugee flood gates and Turkey slowing down its purchase of EU exports then any banking contagion. But like you said steve, Spanish banks do have 90 billion exposure that might require the ECB entering into the equation at some point. 

Being outside the EU, Turkey poses little threat...it’s Italy that must be playing on the ECB’s mind. another Greece in the making only this time times 10. Interesting times ahead.

 

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On 09/08/2018 at 10:36 PM, danydandan said:

The UK, like other European countries should have done, including Ireland, is refused to take immigrants without a vetting program, the whole EU should be protecting it's people. Without a vetting program criminals and would be wrong doers have access to all Countries and it's a big oversight. Crime has risen here in Ireland dramatically since we basically opened our door to EU immigration policies.

We as a European community should take a page from Australian immigration policy.

Illegal immigrants entering Europe is all the making of Erdogan. Take away Turkey’s trade privileges and watch how quickly they stop entering Europe. Same with North Africa. 

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10 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Illegal immigrants entering Europe is all the making of Erdogan. Take away Turkey’s trade privileges and watch how quickly they stop entering Europe. Same with North Africa. 

The EU already paying Turkey €4Bn a year to reduce the migrant flow to a trickle, Also paying Libya €2.5Bn.

10 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

...I think the EU and ECB is more concerned with Turkey not opening the refugee flood gates and Turkey slowing down its purchase of EU exports then any banking contagion. But like you said steve, Spanish banks do have 90 billion exposure that might require the ECB entering into the equation at some point. 

Being outside the EU, Turkey poses little threat...it’s Italy that must be playing on the ECB’s mind. another Greece in the making only this time times 10. Interesting times ahead.

 

The key is Dept to GDP, once it reaches 140% of GDP all bets are off. (its currently at 130% of GDP) for Italy that is. The debt in the euro zone is insurmountable. Greece starts paying their bailout money back in 2032. The ECB as been buying upto 70% of members debts. Amounting to $2.65Trillion. Basically they own a debt the size of the UK economy. And that's reliant on it being plain sailing for the next 50years. A bit of a tall ask if you ask me.

Was looking for the news in the guardian, independent, FT, were figures show the Euro area growth grew at an average of 0.39% 1995 to 2018.

there are problems alright.

 

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Turkish Lira down 45% against the dollar.

 

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Not much happening in EU / Brexit Politics so thought I would just post this from the Department for International Trade:

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Global exporters New Balance UK, Playdale, Tech Buyer and Hitachi join the Northern Powerhouse Partners Programme

Northern Powerhouse exports now account for nearly 20% of the UK’s total goods and services output

Exports have helped propel the value of the Northern Powerhouse economy to £330 billion – greater than the economies of Austria, Belgium or Norway

 

Source:

...and that is just one region of the UK

 

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Brilliant news if you are of a particular political persuasion...

 

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Nigel Farage has said he is going "back on the road" to campaign against the prime minister's Brexit plan.

Writing for the Daily Telegraph, the UKIP MEP said Theresa May's Chequers agreement was a "sell-out" because it included regulatory alignment with the European Union.

He added he would join Eurosceptic group Leave Means Leave at a series of public events across the UK.

The 54-year-old said a "battlebus" had already been hired.

The former UKIP leader's announcement comes after a string of resignations last month over the prime minister's Brexit strategy - including those of David Davis and Boris Johnson

 

Source: BBC

One thing to note is that when I try to access the LeavemeansLeave.eu official sight I get the response that "site cant be reached"-is there a conspiracy afoot??

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50 minutes ago, keithisco said:

Brilliant news if you are of a particular political persuasion...

 

Source: BBC

One thing to note is that when I try to access the LeavemeansLeave.eu official sight I get the response that "site cant be reached"-is there a conspiracy afoot??

Yeah there have been movements at the leave means leave hq, they were found stockpiling non standard watermelons.  

Footage here of EU ninja infiltration.

 

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On 16/08/2018 at 4:42 PM, keithisco said:

Not much happening in EU / Brexit Politics

 

 

Its the calm before the storm.

John Redwood MP.

 

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Reply to a letter from the Prime Minister

By johnredwood | Published: August 11, 2018

Along with the rest of the Conservative party I have received a letter from the Prime Minister about  her Chequers proposal for a  deal between  the UK with the EU.

I agree with much of the content of her letter. In it she assured me “We will take back control of our money, our laws, and  borders, and begin an exciting new chapter in our nation’s history”…”We will leave the EU on 29 March next year”  “I remain clear that no deal is  better than a bad deal – and we are stepping up our no deal preparation” “The two options on offer from the EU (for a future partnership) at the moment are  not acceptable to me, or to the UK”.

So far so good. Unfortunately the letter then seeks to persuade me that those fine principles and aims as stated often by the PM are reflected in the draft Chequers proposal and in the detailed clauses of the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement that the government has said it is happy with if all else is agreed. It appears the PM has been misled by her advisers, as the Withdrawal Agreement as so far drafted, the transitional period and the Chequers ideas for the future relationship do not in any way reflect those aims and principles.

The transitional period so called means we do not leave the EU on 29 March 2019 as promised. Instead she will ask Parliament to amend the Withdrawal Act we have just passed to give many powers back to the EU.

The proposed settlement on people means we live with a new version of freedom of movement.

It delays taking back control of our fishing grounds and agriculture.

It leaves us accepting large swathes of EU law in perpetuity, in return for the privilege of being able to import their goods and food!

It enslaves us to making  payments to the EU for many years distant, not just for the final two years of our departure, when there is no legal requirement for us to pay anything after March 29 next year when we leave.

The draft Agreement and the proposed future relationship does not achieve the PM’s aims as stated in the second paragraph of the  letter, aims I agree with wholeheartedly. She needs to press on with the WTO option so we can get all our money back from March 2019 onwards,

The reasons the PM gives to surrender our powers of self government again over the supply of goods

By johnredwood | Published: August 15, 2018

In her letter the PM says “the rules of goods are long established – the last substantial change was in 1987”. This is untrue. The EU is regularly updating and extending its rules over business. Once we have left we lose the little influence we did have whilst still a member with a vote to prevent or delay the most damaging proposals.

“Many of the rules are based on international standards set by bodies that we will have a seat on”. Fine, then there is no need to  bind us into the EU version anyway

“British businesses which export to the EU have been clear they will continue to follow the rules in order to continue selling into the European market”. Of  course if a customer wants a given specification the supplier will meet it. That does not mean we have to adopt those same standards for everything we do at home, or be bound by them if selling to third countries with their own different requirements. Exports to the EU are only 12% of our economic output. The ability to improve and change our own rules is important in a democracy, and important to be able where we wish to do trade deals.

“any changes to our rules will be subject to a Parliamentary lock” – but each time Parliament objects to EU rules or changes to EU rules we will be told we are not allowed to alter them as it would disrupt our relationship and trade with the EU.

She argues we could still do trade deals with non EU countries, though the EU control over our goods market would make this much more difficult.

 

 

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10 hours ago, keithisco said:

Brilliant news if you are of a particular political persuasion...

 

Source: BBC

One thing to note is that when I try to access the LeavemeansLeave.eu official sight I get the response that "site cant be reached"-is there a conspiracy afoot??

 

looks like it.... dirty tricks....?.... although from the moment the referendum result was in I suspect those wanting
to remain began conspiring to thwart the decision - and are beavering behind the scenes 24/7..

those who own and control the MSM now own and control swathes of the internet -
and we know that the MSM are anti Brexit... 

when I read your post I has a look and went to the Leave means Leave Twitter account 

https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave?lang=en

and the sites put on the left hand side... the one you mention.... wouldn't work....

hmmmmm

 

 

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1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

It enslaves us to making  payments to the EU for many years distant, not just for the final two years of our departure, when there is no legal requirement for us to pay anything after March 29 next year when we leave.

the above from the John Redwood letter....

it's like they (the conspiring EU and Remainers)... want Britain to continue to help prop up the EU financially while they
figure out a way to get us completely back in.... and want to keep a Fake Brexit going (courtesy of Theresa May?)
until that can be '''arranged''''...

  

Edited by bee
removed one word :)
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Brexit: 84 preparation documents being released this week. (most probably come with a handy build your own anderson shelter instruction manual)

 

 

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On 10/08/2018 at 8:59 PM, keithisco said:

Asked whether there should be a referendum on whether to accept the terms of Britain's exit from the EU once they have been agreed, about half of 18 to 24 year-olds say they are in favour of another poll.

Possibly they too are beginning to get fed up with the endless ludicrous scaremongering (today: NHS Chiefs Spread Panic that they Won't Be Able to Buy Medicines or Life Saving Equipment).

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On 21/08/2018 at 7:31 AM, Vlad the Mighty said:

 

Possibly they too are beginning to get fed up with the endless ludicrous scaremongering (today: NHS Chiefs Spread Panic that they Won't Be Able to Buy Medicines or Life Saving Equipment).

U mean not getting a pay rise

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On 3/30/2017 at 3:03 AM, keithisco said:

The "Brexit" thread has become too unwieldy and is little more than a sounding board for re-hashing the Leave / Remain arguments. This I believe is a diversion from actually focussing on the reality of the various aspects of the negotiations that have now begun and I would like this thread to focus on the details - in so far as we can discern them - and to comment on the "Divorce" bill. .

The opening gambits have been played with triggering Article 50 (it is irrelevant whether you were pro or con this event because it is now the reality) and I would like to hear comments on where the Michel Barnier "formula" for coming to a 60Bn Euro figure comes from?

Various vague insights quote planning strategies agreed previously - some several years ago - others from the EU wish list of spending on developing poorer members of the EU27,

Today Francois Hollande (echoing Frau Merkel's comments) tells us that until the EU is guaranteed this sum up-front then they will not even begin to negotiate trading terms and relationships... from my reading of Article 50 then parallel talks are invoked, with the EU27 not being able to demand otherwise.

I also hear time and again that in the view of the EU 5 Presidents, the UK is not even allowed to START trade negotiations with 3rd countries until we have actually left! This is a nonsense, not based on any treaty obligations, so would it not be beneficial to the UK to announce which countries we ARE negotiating with from a business perspective.

1. Do we immediately agree to pay up - based on the EU infamous accounting principles?

2. As a soon to be ex-member do our commitments to funding poorer EU27 nations end on Exit day?

3. Will the EU27 negotiators simply throw a "hissy fit" if we don't agree, and refuse to start trade negotiations?

4. Is the whole exercise doomed from the start due to posturing?

5. Should we simply say "enough is enough - you don't want to seriously negotiate - so we will wash our hands of all aspects of the EU"?

 

That was all asked in March of 2017 and 2,250 posts ago.

 

Any progress, on any of it?

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Raab the puppet standing behind liar May's version of Brexit. Anyone noticed how this as been accepted without question by the media. 

The same media is on project fear version 6.0. After today's announcement. 

Brexit as got so bad, not only is the sky falling in we are informed the warning pictures on cigarettes will have to change because the EU own the copy right. 

If that's not bad enough the NHS is going to collapse, Govt recommends stockpilling six weeks worth of medicines. I texted a mate who's wife works in the local NHS as a administrator. She informed me they hold 3 months worth of stock at all times. That's why they mention pharma companies and not the NHS directly but this hasn't stopped the media inferring it's the NHS. 

We need to stop with the repeated tag line " deep and special relationship" when referring to the EU. 

Just leave on WTO. But it's clear the Govt leadership doesn't want to leave. 

These are the bullet points by the BBC. 

  • The cost of card payments between the UK and EU will "likely increase" and won't be covered by a ban on surcharges
  • Businesses trading with the EU should start planning for new customs checks, and might have to pay for new software or logistical help
  • Britons living elsewhere in Europe could lose access to UK banking and pension services without EU action
  • UK organic food producers could face new hurdles to exporting to the EU
  • Pharmaceutical companies have been told to stockpile an extra six weeks' worth of medicine to ensure a "seamless" supply
  • The UK would continue to accept new medicines that have been tested in the EU
  • Low-value parcels from the EU would no longer be eligible for VAT relief
  • New picture warnings will be needed for cigarette packets as the EU owns the copyright to the current ones

This Brexit malarkey is proving easier than we thought. These remainer hurdles are easily overcome. In fact I'm sure readers here would quickly find a solution for each scenario above. 

The poor Govt have lost their influence, they look increasingly stupid if they carry on in this vein. 

A point I want to highlight is the fact why hasn't the EU released its own impact and preparedness assessment today, is brexit not going to impact the EU. Or is it a simple case of promise disaster for the UK while portraying the EU as a safe harbour. Somewhere for the frightened to turn or run to. If the EU was to release its own impact assessment, people would say if its going to be a disaster for the UK and also the EU those same people would push both sides for a deal. But that's not the plan. Project fear 6.0 needs time to work. 

The way events are conspiring I'd be very surprised if we actually leave the EU. Liar May's actions raise serious doubts and haven't been challenged. 

I think the British establishment as seriously underestimated the feeling on the street. A Brexit fudge resulting in a political revolution in the UK. Its been a long time coming and institutions are going to receive a right shoeing. 

Edited by stevewinn
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Quite frankly I am also sick to death of hearing about this "deep and special relationship"...just a normal relationship will suffice as with the rest of the World and I could care less if the EU suffers huge unemployment and years of 0 economic growth as a result of the UK leaving because they simply engineered the situation themselves. The "super smug" Commission are really a bunch of small-minded failed politicians who have been given a second opportunity to s%%%w up peoples lives again having done so once already in their own non-countries.

The fight-back against these idealogues has begun today with JRM and a hundred MP sending a letter to Traitor May telling her to "chuck Chequers", and next week LeavemeansLeave begin their campaign to ensure that the Democratic vote is upheld, and joining them will be Nigel Farrage. Who would have thought that in the UK we would have to fight to enforce this referendum, the result of which has passed into Common Law?

I have rejoined the Conservative Party (2.04p a month) to ensure that my vote counts when Traitor May is forced to resign, and to ensure that my Brexit voting MP is not deselected at any time. 

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