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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco

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1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

35 days till Brexit.

Reality hitting home. as the Guardians headline reads today "Ireland steps up effort to shelter economy from no-deal Brexit" amid growing alarm that parts of the Irish economy could face severe disruption and even collapse.

Worried about???? Dublin will begin amid increasingly fraught warnings of a hammer blow to agriculture, food processing, transport and other industries. They fear Brazil could wipe out Irish beef exports to the UK altogether.

Oh dear, How Sad, Never Mind.

when Brexit happens, I wont be buying Irish no more. well played Leo.

 

I will be celebrating Brexit Day with some nice tasty New Zealand lamb

Yum Yum

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38 minutes ago, keithisco said:

And?...

exactly, whatever we do going forward will be in our interest, we can choose to increase decrease or scrap any tariffs. the opportunities and options are ours to take.

Its going to take the remoaners awhile to catch on.

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Why are 100 M.P.'s backing out of a no deal ,the E.U. haven't yet said it but they are increasingly more nervous if a no deal is going to happen because their exports to us are going to crash, and the fishing rights in British waters will cease , creating havoc in the North Sea fishing limits , we don't need their exports as we can get our needs from countries outside the E.U. from cars to dairy produce and meat .No worries ,less than a month to go .yippee...I guess the E.U. are about to have a case of severe diarrhoea.LOL

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25 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

Why are 100 M.P.'s backing out of a no deal ,the E.U. haven't yet said it but they are increasingly more nervous if a no deal is going to happen because their exports to us are going to crash, and the fishing rights in British waters will cease , creating havoc in the North Sea fishing limits , we don't need their exports as we can get our needs from countries outside the E.U. from cars to dairy produce and meat .No worries ,less than a month to go .yippee...I guess the E.U. are about to have a case of severe diarrhoea.LOL

Because they haven't got a spine between them.

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1 hour ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Because they haven't got a spine between them.

And also they like to lead us by the nose.

Brexit as exposed and confirmed in all its glory what we've always suspected that they dont give a damn about what the people want. See its one thing breaking the manifesto pledges something they've all gotten away with over the years. But Brexit is something else.

Hide no longer can they, thats why we have breakaway MPs from labour and tories they know the game is up their days in parliament are numbered. None of them were surviving the next general election. Many of them were facing deselection anyway.

Ive said all along 2 yrs after brexit 550 MPs will have gone/Changed.

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55 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

And also they like to lead us by the nose.

Brexit as exposed and confirmed in all its glory what we've always suspected that they dont give a damn about what the people want. See its one thing breaking the manifesto pledges something they've all gotten away with over the years. But Brexit is something else.

Hide no longer can they, thats why we have breakaway MPs from labour and tories they know the game is up their days in parliament are numbered. None of them were surviving the next general election. Many of them were facing deselection anyway.

Ive said all along 2 yrs after brexit 550 MPs will have gone/Changed.

With Labour I dont like that party.

But lets not forget their MPs are preventing Corbyn (who is pro-leave) from opening adopting a leave policy. That lot of politicians need cleaning out. We have remain MPs elected from leave areas trying to subvert Democracy.

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10 hours ago, keithisco said:

And?...

well contrary to you buddy's hallucinations there will not be any cheap beef from Brazil. 

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9 hours ago, stevewinn said:

exactly, whatever we do going forward will be in our interest, we can choose to increase decrease or scrap any tariffs. the opportunities and options are ours to take.

Its going to take the remoaners awhile to catch on.

no steve that's not what Gove is postulating. what he's saying is that Brexit and in particular Hard Brexit will decimate UK agriculture and the UK will have to wean itself of this free trade fallacy that has powered brexit. free trade is just not something that the UK can do. it just has too many weak and exposed industries and high income workers to be able to do. 

just face the reality of Brexit... it was all about flag waving and immigration. and its going to cost the UK dearly! 

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4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

And also they like to lead us by the nose.

Brexit as exposed and confirmed in all its glory what we've always suspected that they dont give a damn about what the people want. See its one thing breaking the manifesto pledges something they've all gotten away with over the years. But Brexit is something else.

Hide no longer can they, thats why we have breakaway MPs from labour and tories they know the game is up their days in parliament are numbered. None of them were surviving the next general election. Many of them were facing deselection anyway.

Ive said all along 2 yrs after brexit 550 MPs will have gone/Changed.

if the Brexit referendum has shown the UK and the world anything its that the rabble by and large are morons. voting shouldn't be a right but a privilege. in fact having babies should be by invitation only. people just don't know whats good for them. but you're not alone in this crazy world. The Greeks moronically voted to make them selves rich and free of debt during the euro zone crises. the Americans with Trump and his MAGA campaign,  the Turks when they decided to democratically elect a dictator and the list goes on and on... 

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33 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

no steve that's not what Gove is postulating. what he's saying is that Brexit and in particular Hard Brexit will decimate UK agriculture and the UK will have to wean itself of this free trade fallacy that has powered brexit. free trade is just not something that the UK can do. it just has too many weak and exposed industries and high income workers to be able to do. 

just face the reality of Brexit... it was all about flag waving and immigration. and its going to cost the UK dearly! 

No doubt certain sectors will have to adjust over time. One effective measure we can take is apply tariffs but equally why should the uk apply a tariff rate for citrus and tropical fruits which we cant grow here.

The uk can apply tariffs in sectors we need to and reduce or eliminate in others.

Continued........

 

 

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1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

No doubt certain sectors will have to adjust over time. One effective measure we can take is apply tariffs but equally why should the uk apply a tariff rate for citrus and tropical fruits which we cant grow here.

The uk can apply tariffs in sectors we need to and reduce or eliminate in others.

Continued........

Tariffs? like what the EU does?

the entire concept of a trade deal is that both parties walk away with something more than what they started with. example. when you sign a free trade deal with Australia the UK has to develop and keep its best industries at the top. defence and banking is what you'll be looking to Australia to open its doors to and Australia will be looking at agriculture, gas and coal to enter the UK. the UK cannot expect something and not give anything up. you can add Brazil, USA, Mexico and Canada to that list. 

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4 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

With Labour I dont like that party.

But lets not forget their MPs are preventing Corbyn (who is pro-leave) from opening adopting a leave policy. That lot of politicians need cleaning out. We have remain MPs elected from leave areas trying to subvert Democracy.

Corbyn may have said 3 years ago that he was pro-leave, but now he is still clamouring for a 2nd referendum ,why do you think that is . 

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44 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

No doubt certain sectors will have to adjust over time. One effective measure we can take is apply tariffs but equally why should the uk apply a tariff rate for citrus and tropical fruits which we cant grow here.

The uk can apply tariffs in sectors we need to and reduce or eliminate in others.

Continued........

 

 

We have been importing Tomato's,  Oranges, Pineapple, Potato's and other farm produce from South Africa for a long time now , and Beef products from Brazil ,Uruguay,  for the past 50 years that I know of , that's fact. because I was on ships that carried this cargo , so why do we need the E.U. at all . 

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1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

Tariffs? like what the EU does?

the entire concept of a trade deal is that both parties walk away with something more than what they started with. example. when you sign a free trade deal with Australia the UK has to develop and keep its best industries at the top. defence and banking is what you'll be looking to Australia to open its doors to and Australia will be looking at agriculture, gas and coal to enter the UK. the UK cannot expect something and not give anything up. you can add Brazil, USA, Mexico and Canada to that list. 

Continued...... 

This is how the world works. The UK can set its own tariff rates. They could be higher lower or the same rate as the current EU the beauty of it is, its our choice. Not someone in Brussels but here in the UK. And any monies raised on it. 100% of it will go to the UK Treasury. And not what happens now 80% for the EU 20% for the UK. 

The EU should in no way benefit from the UK's purchasing power. Like the real life example I give on here a few months back. Ordered from the USA. Items arrived I paid just over £100 import duties of which the EU got £80 UK Treasury got £20. No matter which way you spin it its just wrong. And with brexit all this is going to stop. 

 

38 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

We have been importing Tomato's,  Oranges, Pineapple, Potato's and other farm produce from South Africa for a long time now , and Beef products from Brazil ,Uruguay,  for the past 50 years that I know of , that's fact. because I was on ships that carried this cargo , so why do we need the E.U. at all . 

Exactly. I was eating runner beans with my Sunday dinner from Egypt. Leg of lamb from New Zealand. We went around my mums later on had bananas and custard, bananas from Costa Rica. My dad prunes from Israel. 

It's crazy, but what we can get from the EU we can either grow ourselves temperate foods or we can buy from the world. I'm sure South Africa, hell even the USA would like to sell us more fruit and veg, oranges from Florida, wheat from kansas etc... 

These cult followers of the EU believe only the EU can provide, believe free trade should only exist behind the protectionist walls of the EU. Believe world prices can't be lower than the EU's.

Look at rice it's gone up £47p in the shops (500gram) all because the EU wants to protect the small rice growers in Italy. Why should the UK who grows no rice pay extra to protect a small industry in Italy. 

Its clear whatever fruit and veg the EU provides we can get elsewhere fact. 

If we can grow it at home and the industry or sector needs protecting we can apply tariffs if we can't grow it at home the EU will have to compete on the global market for our custom. 

It doesn't matter to me if my freshly squeezed orange was from Greece or South Africa, I'm not bothered if my Lemon is from Sicily or Israel. 

All can be sourced from around the world. And i can't wait. Its going to be an education for some. 

 

 

Edited by stevewinn
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1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Continued...... 

This is how the world works. The UK can set its own tariff rates. They could be higher lower or the same rate as the current EU the beauty of it is, its our choice. Not someone in Brussels but here in the UK. And any monies raised on it. 100% of it will go to the UK Treasury. And not what happens now 80% for the EU 20% for the UK. 

 

well can the UK really force someone to the negotiating table with the tariff rates it would like? the EU can get good rates because they have some serious buying and consumer power. they only sign trade deals that are to their advantage. if you can ride off the back of these deals (which you have much maligned during this brexit discussion, mind you), then you really don't miss out. BUT if lets say Australia or New Zealand say open your agricultural markets to our cheaper products instead of the EU then why would the EU allow the UK a trade deal if the UK has not only decimated its farm sector but closed it to the EU for good? why should the EU then accept Australia and New Zealand as competitors and still allow them a quota? now the EU market is bigger than the UK one. so if push came to shove then who is gonna win?

as for tariffs... I'm assuming those tariffs you're talking about are those you wish to see levied on EU products. well the EU will also apply tariffs and the cost of protecting your inefficient industries alone will add extra costs to your consumers and exporters and since the UK will be the junior partner in any trade deal i.e. the one that will pay more to access EU markets. currently the UK and the EU have no tariffs and the tariffs the EU has with the outside world won't necessarily translate into the UK treasury. as the UK will not be able to strike a stronger enough trade deal. in fact the reverse is true. if the U.S. signs a deal with the UK it will more than likely allow U.S. tech industries (that pay no UK tax) to export products like the one you received and the EU collected tariff on, tariff free. so the net gain to the UK treasury will be zero. so will you get a cheaper product? yes but at the cost of UK jobs and taxes. 

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

 

Look at rice it's gone up £47p in the shops (500gram) all because the EU wants to protect the small rice growers in Italy. Why should the UK who grows no rice pay extra to protect a small industry in Italy. 

Its clear whatever fruit and veg the EU provides we can get elsewhere fact. 

If we can grow it at home and the industry or sector needs protecting we can apply tariffs if we can't grow it at home the EU will have to compete on the global market for our custom. 

It doesn't matter to me if my freshly squeezed orange was from Greece or South Africa, I'm not bothered if my Lemon is from Sicily or Israel. 

All can be sourced from around the world. And i can't wait. Its going to be an education for some. 

 

well i bet Italians are probably looking at the price of beef and wondering the same about protecting UK farmers. but like always you're only quantifying imports but refuse to talk of the exports. it seems brexit to you is only about imports. why don't you mention exports? why don't you talk about exports to the EU? why don't you talk about health and safety standards? quality control and so forth. workers rights and consumer protection? steve your arguments are simplistic and not inclusive of overall trade. cherry picking. 

Edited by Captain Risky
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I like the interviews with Alexander Mercouris on the Duran YT channel...

this is one discussing the split in the Labour Party and how it's all about Brexit
and how the MPs who have taken themselves out of the Labour Party are doomed
to failure and have made Brexit even more likely than it was and have strengthened Corbyn..

the largely unknown's who made a great fanfare of leaving courtesy of the anti Brexit Media
are Blairites and I expect Blair charmed them into doing it.... he (Blair) thinks he is the master
of persuasion and it must be tough for him and his ego to learn that he isn't the powerful
political figure that he was..... and never will be again (now he can't be President of the EU,
a job he surely had on his 'to do' list..... )

An amusing point Mercouris brought up near the end of the interview, was that it is noted that
they are all strong supporters of a 2nd referendum - but they won't take part in a 2nd vote on themselves
and call by~ elections to put their new position to the voters and to the test... 


Labour MP split is a cheap and final ploy to derail BREXIT

Feb 20 2019
 

 

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6 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

why don't you talk about health and safety standards? quality control and so forth. workers rights and consumer protection? steve your arguments are simplistic and not inclusive of overall trade. cherry picking. 

 

you talk as if we in Britain are all knuckle dragging simpletons who need the civilizing influence
of the EU...... ^_^

 

 

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9 minutes ago, bee said:

you talk as if we in Britain are all knuckle dragging simpletons who need the civilizing influence
of the EU...... ^_^

no i don't. you're just dramatising.  

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9 hours ago, spud the mackem said:

Corbyn may have said 3 years ago that he was pro-leave, but now he is still clamouring for a 2nd referendum ,why do you think that is . 

 

He isn't 'clamouring' for a 2nd referendum... Remainers in his Party are pushing for him to call for it
but as of yet he hasn't -

he's walking a tightrope on the issue because he knows that Labour will probably lose millions of Working Class
voters if he betrays the Referendum Result... 

we are lucky really that Corbyn is at heart a Leave Supporter... because that is curtailing the Remainers in
his Party who would like to go the Full Monty... 

 

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Its highly likely imo that we will get May's deal - no deal is a non starter and will be circumvented - the ERG know this so expect movement towards May's deal otherwise known as Brino.

Personally I think Mays deal is the best of a bad hand but it has good points as per the political declaration:

"The future relationship should incorporate the United Kingdom's continued commitment to respect the framework of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)"

"with a view to facilitating the movement of goods across borders, the Parties envisage comprehensive arrangements that will create a free trade area, combining deep regulatory and customs cooperation, underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open and fair competition."

"The economic partnership should ensure no tariffs, fees, charges or quantitative restrictions across all sectors, with ambitious customs arrangements that, in line with the Parties' objectives and principles above, build and improve on the single customs territory provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement which obviates the need for checks on rules of origin."

Will there be a second referendum on this - doubt it - the ERG will move to support it to avoid a second referendum.

So on the 30th of March we will be:

  1. Out of the EU but in it.  and 2 years down the line we will be out of the EU but with a Customs Union albeit under a different name,  Regulatory Alignment or something; (70% chance) or
  2. In a period of delay while we wait on the ERG to come round to 1; (20% chance) or
  3. In a period of delay while we wait on a referendum on Mays deal or stay in (ouch that would hurt - hence why 2 above more likely than 3); (10% chance) or
  4. In a No Deal scenario on WTO rules - which although the default position is not one that even the government expects to be delivered; (0% chance). 

34 days and counting...

obviously the percentages are my take on things.

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45 minutes ago, bee said:

we are lucky really that Corbyn is at heart a Leave Supporter.

Yes Corbyn is a leaver - which is why is has been so pathetic at leading an opposition to Mays pathetic government. Ironic that at one of the most crucial times in the UK's modern history with have a Tory Party and Labour party full of light weights.

Whatever happens with Brexit - there will be a political realignment in the next few years (I think I might have just agreed with Farage - I will have to re-think this) which will go beyond just the creation of new parties - the political institutions here, like those in the USA and France have shown themselves as being no longer fit for purpose.

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8 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Yes Corbyn is a leaver - which is why is has been so pathetic at leading an opposition to Mays pathetic government. Ironic that at one of the most crucial times in the UK's modern history with have a Tory Party and Labour party full of light weights.

Whatever happens with Brexit - there will be a political realignment in the next few years (I think I might have just agreed with Farage - I will have to re-think this) which will go beyond just the creation of new parties - the political institutions here, like those in the USA and France have shown themselves as being no longer fit for purpose.

ta for your take on it all... (this and previous post)

Perhaps it's fitting that the two main parties are 'light weights'.... one... because this is what happens when
they have vastly reduced power because the bulk of real power lies with the EU.. so it doesn't matter much
who they are or how good they are... it's all tinkering around on the edges...

and two... because these 'light weights' mean that the People's Vote is stronger than it would have been
re the actual Referendum... the result can't be railroaded so easily without a power hungry character like
Blair at the fore front... 

Lol.... perhaps you and Nige are closer than what you thought.... 

If as you yourself are predicting we will be Out but still In... the EU..... then the battle to actually Leave the EU
will continue .... and we could see Farage sitting in the House of Commons in the not too distant future...

there again... a ''''No Deal'''' exit is said to be looking more and more likely......

so we'll see.........

 

   

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7 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

well can the UK really force someone to the negotiating table with the tariff rates it would like? the EU can get good rates because they have some serious buying and consumer power. they only sign trade deals that are to their advantage. if you can ride off the back of these deals (which you have much maligned during this brexit discussion, mind you), then you really don't miss out. BUT if lets say Australia or New Zealand say open your agricultural markets to our cheaper products instead of the EU then why would the EU allow the UK a trade deal if the UK has not only decimated its farm sector but closed it to the EU for good? why should the EU then accept Australia and New Zealand as competitors and still allow them a quota? now the EU market is bigger than the UK one. so if push came to shove then who is gonna win?

as for tariffs... I'm assuming those tariffs you're talking about are those you wish to see levied on EU products. well the EU will also apply tariffs and the cost of protecting your inefficient industries alone will add extra costs to your consumers and exporters and since the UK will be the junior partner in any trade deal i.e. the one that will pay more to access EU markets. currently the UK and the EU have no tariffs and the tariffs the EU has with the outside world won't necessarily translate into the UK treasury. as the UK will not be able to strike a stronger enough trade deal. in fact the reverse is true. if the U.S. signs a deal with the UK it will more than likely allow U.S. tech industries (that pay no UK tax) to export products like the one you received and the EU collected tariff on, tariff free. so the net gain to the UK treasury will be zero. so will you get a cheaper product? yes but at the cost of UK jobs and taxes. 

well i bet Italians are probably looking at the price of beef and wondering the same about protecting UK farmers. but like always you're only quantifying imports but refuse to talk of the exports. it seems brexit to you is only about imports. why don't you mention exports? why don't you talk about exports to the EU? why don't you talk about health and safety standards? quality control and so forth. workers rights and consumer protection? steve your arguments are simplistic and not inclusive of overall trade. cherry picking. 

Who said the UK could or would force anyone to the negotiating table?? thats not how it works and its just bizarre to even think that. 

The UK will gladly sit at the table with like minded countries who seek trade deals for mutual benefit.

you have this very strange notion that the EU is almighty and powerful. that's why its FTA's with the USA, China, are non-existent, and yet Iceland 350,000 population has a FTA with China, as does Chile, Costa Rica, New Zealand,  Singapore, even tiny Australia 24million population so its clear size doesn't mean anything when it comes to trade agreements.

Our Exports to the world have grown three times faster than they have to the EU, for the last decade our trade with the EU as been declining and continues to do so, and more importantly this is while we've been full EU member's, inside this glorious club, I've continually pointed out to people who like to boast about the EU market of 400million how many of the 400m can afford UK products? how many of that 400m today buy British products, its clearly not a lot because the 65million of us are buying more from the 400m than the 400m buy from us. get your head around that.

do you know how much a 20ft container from Europe to the UK costs? £450, do you know how much its costs from the UK to Europe £12. all because space is a premium coming into the UK market but going back there is extra space for the empty containers and they want them back so they can refill them again. 3 out of every 4 lorries leaving the UK for Europe are returning home empty.

and if that isn't a eye opener then our annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU certainly is. this glorious single market according to the EU's own study found it benefited the EU by just 2% a German study found it was just 1% for the UK. (rounded up from 0.9%) so the last 24 years as members as added just 1% to our GDP. absolutely crazy, if you dont believe me look at the EU's FTA with Canada, set to benefit Canada by 0.3% and the EU by 0.2%. wow.

our countries don't rise and fall on such numbers, want further proof look at Russia its had sanctions placed on it, its economy is still growing and i might add faster than that of the Eurozone.

like i've said many times we trade with the USA on WTO, that hasnt stopped it becoming our single biggest trade and investment partner, yet someone how if we trade with the EU on the same terms its a cliff edge, maybe if we trade with the EU on WTO the EU will replace the USA as our single biggest market. lets take the argument that WTO terms is a cliff edge, well imagine how much better our trading would be with the USA if we were allowed to conduct our own trade deal. So the EU is clearly holding us back? no?

on safety and quality standards the UK leads the way, and are you really saying our parliment couldn't legislate and pass its own safety standards. the EU's standards are a minimum and the UK in most areas surpasses them compared to other EU countries. just take the humble UK plug the safest in the world. shall we reduce our high standards to meet that of the EU. (you get the point)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bee said:

so we'll see.........

yip we will - not too long now - as it inches, menacingly or gloriously closer.

But While I could very possibly be totally wrong - in my analysis (I know, I know - but it has been known to happen :D )

I pretty certain that even post Brexit we will find things to totally disagree on, so life will go on.

Edited by RAyMO
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