Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Allow me an analogy. I have a fish and chip shop and you’re my best customer. One day you decide to leave the neighbor hood. My shop suffers and I lose money. Should I impose a backstop on you until my takings pick back up again? The only real reason I see is the Good Friday agreement and free movement of people that’s the problem. And in the interest of peace an allowance an be made. But that doesn’t help the Irish narrative of One Island One Ireland and the EU is making sure that the Irish get what they want even under the threat of a no deal that would have just as much of an impact on the rest of Europe as would it on Ireland. It’s about control and punishment. But that’s what happens in the real world. You live by the sword and the UK will be punished the same way.

You do not understand the Irish situation. The backstop is not just an insurance agsinst the economic damage associated with the imposition of the border, it is as much, if not more, to do with the peace process and the healing ghat has been going on between border communities and between north and south.

[Unusual Tournament]

48 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

You do not understand the Irish situation. The backstop is not just an insurance agsinst the economic damage associated with the imposition of the border, it is as much, if not more, to do with the peace process and the healing ghat has been going on between border communities and between north and south.

I already said it has more to do with the Good Friday agreement than financial loss. But the reality is that at the moment it’s part of the UK. The UK are being fair and want to honour the GF agreement so threatening to drive a wedge through the UK is t right. I understand all’s fair in love and war but the Northern Irish border is a political football at the moment.

[RAyMO]

ERG / DUP to fold, May wins tonight by 1 or 2.

2 years as rule takers and all the other things ERG said was bad about the WA now deemed acceptable as WTO Brexit blown out of the water.

Just enough tampering with the backstop to allow ERG and DUP to apply plausible deniability to their climb down.

close relationship with the EU to be agreed over the next two years as it becomes clear Commonwealth and rest of the world trade agreements not sufficient to offset loss of free trade market with the EU.  

 

[stevewinn]

Nothing of significance as changed and rightly the Govt will face defeat once again.

[bee]

 

I know it's the Guardian but I can't be bothered to look any further and presume this is more or less true...
 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/08/the-brexit-state-of-play-a-guide-to-next-weeks-crucial-votes

this looks to be the crucial part...

BUT... as many MPs don't want to vote for Brexit to go through in any shape or form... it still looks wobbly
for May / EU deal...and the (alleged) backstop changes might not be good enough for many Brexiteers...
 

Quote

Most of the government’s focus, however, has been on trying to persuade the EU27 to provide “legally binding guarantees” on the Irish backstop.

On Monday night the government said it had secured those changes. Theresa May’s deputy David Lidington added that the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, would be publishing advice ahead of Tuesday’s debate, but needed time to consider whether the new changes meant that he could change his legal advice that the backstop could last indefinitely.

Has there been movement among Brexiters since the last vote?

Not much. Some Brexiters, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, have signalled that a time limit on the backstop would be sufficient to win them over.

Edited March 12, 2019 by bee

[bee]

55 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

ERG / DUP to fold, May wins tonight by 1 or 2.

 

thank you Nostradamus 

 

[RAyMO]

9 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

I already said it has more to do with the Good Friday agreement than financial loss. But the reality is that at the moment it’s part of the UK. The UK are being fair and want to honour the GF agreement so threatening to drive a wedge through the UK is t right. I understand all’s fair in love and war but the Northern Irish border is a political football at the moment.

Their is no wedge - just a very clear desire to see no hard border, and a set of rules in place to avoid a border being defacto ordered by third parties (eg WTO challenge). The ROI doesn't want NI - its a economic nightmare, not to mention the sectarian issues that despite the peace still exit. The ERG and DUP are out of kilter with the people of NI on the backstop, the vast majority of whom are in favour of it which (given the almost 50/50 nationalist unionist split) means that significant numbers of unionists are in favour as are businesses and farming groups and nationalists.

Its not unprecedented for parts of countries to operate under different economic rules. In respect to laws and indeed regulations surrounding livestock importation (even from the other parts of the UK) NI is already different. There is no threat to NI from the backstop in and off itself. It is part of the good Friday agreement that the constitutional position can only be settled by a vote in NI.

A hard border is more than an economic hindrance - people cross back and forth through it frequently. In one journey for example between two specific NI neighbouring towns you would cross the border 6 times (yes the border is very wiggly).  We had a hard border before during the Troubles and many more police than we have now backed up by 10s of thousands of soldiers - but despite that the majority of border crossing were closed due to shortage of resources and security considerations. 5min journey became 1.5 hour journeys due to having to travel to an open crossing point and sitting in queues. 

The removal of the hard border was a direct result of the Good Friday agreement - an agreement that die hard Republican militants didn't want. Its re imposition would be (and threats of it are being)  used by these paramilitary groups as rallying calls ("you can't trust the British - we told you so... etc etc").  A hard border would become a focal point of activity for the terrorists just as it was during the troubles. And no right thinking person wants to see that sort of activity back in Northern Ireland. 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2019 by RAyMO

[RAyMO]

26 minutes ago, bee said:

 

thank you Nostradamus 

 

Well you can't say its a Guardian view

30 minutes ago, bee said:

 

I know it's the Guardian but I can't be bothered to look any further and presume this is more or less true...
 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/08/the-brexit-state-of-play-a-guide-to-next-weeks-crucial-votes

this looks to be the crucial part...

BUT... as many MPs don't want to vote for Brexit to go through in any shape or form... it still looks wobbly
for May / EU deal...and the (alleged) backstop changes might not be good enough for many Brexiteers...
 

 

[stevewinn]

The WA itself cannot be changed, but the effect can be modified by additional instruments. Leave it to the ECJ to decide. The UK cannot unilaterally leave, That decision would go to arbitrators who could take years to decide even decades and the ultimate decision which is final is that of the ECJ. we were assured we would be leaving the jurisdiction of the ECJ.This is simply another shameful and indeed shameless chapter in the May-EU project to deceive and manipulate the people of the United Kingdom.

There is something more sinister going on here, a full inquiry is urgently needed after we Brexit.

[stevewinn]

It looks like May's early hours deal is dead.

Attorney general Cox analysis released, para 19

"The Risk remains unchanged. Including "No internationally lawful means of exiting the protocols arrangement, save by agreement".

Its over for May.

The title of worst PM in History as to go to someone. that someone is one Theresa May.
 

[+Hammerclaw]

Looks like a case of wanting to eat the cake and have it, too. The UK either cuts the ties that bind, or it resigns itself to continue being just another State in the Union. You gave up a lot to getting in and you'll give up a lot getting out. Divorces are often ugly affairs.

[L.A.T.1961]

I think Brussels have clearly used May's pro EU sentiments and the efforts of 'remainers' to try and get something they would have been unlikely to achieve if a more reasonable and typical method of negotiation been used. 

EU calculations probably indicated that a failure to get desired results from this method after two years would only put them back where they started.

If successful it would be something for nothing, except wasting a few years, which is something Brussels do all the time when negotiating trade deals. 

If the UK now leave without a deal then Brussels are back to square one and have to negotiate based on requirements on both sides.

Unfortunately for Brussels the ploy has not been cost free, the UK population is now more wary of Brussels motives and less likely to consider going back any time soon. Brussels decision to remove EU medical agency from London has cost them dear, both in staff losses and $500 million in building lease costs.

Not negotiating a future trade deal with UK alongside an exit deal has worried business on both side of the channel and helped push EU area economy into near recession. This has caused a recent U turn in ECB policy.  

So a No Deal puts them back to square one and they are left with having to negotiate in a more pragmatic fashion.

The UK can offer money for market access and some north sea licences for access for banks and financial services. tariffs can be agreed to suit both parties. 

Brussels problem now is to do this and sell it to the EU as a bad deal and show the UK was penalised by the brexit vote.

 

[itsnotoutthere]

1 hour ago, Hammerclaw said:

Looks like a case of wanting to eat the cake and have it, too. The UK either cuts the ties that bind, or it resigns itself to continue being just another State in the Union. You gave up a lot to getting in and you'll give up a lot getting out. Divorces are often ugly affairs.

This is what happens when you put a remainer in charge of brexit.

The fox in charge of the chickens so to speak.

[Unusual Tournament]

This is headed for election and possibly another referendum. 

[+Hammerclaw]

1 hour ago, itsnotoutthere said:

This is what happens when you put a remainer in charge of brexit.

The fox in charge of the chickens so to speak.

An ugly affair indeed with todays vote in. Painful, and/or humiliating if they plead for more time from Brussels or nix Brexit altogether. 

[stevewinn]

32 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

This is headed for election and possibly another referendum. 

Why should we accept the result of another referendum or GE after the democratic process of the 17.4miliion has been ignored. Because what you prove by having another vote or GE is democracy is dead. As we can pick and choose what result we like or dont like.

So lets enact the mandate of the first vote shall we. And then we can talk sensibly about referendums and general elections.

I bet you never thought youd find yourself arguing against democracy.

It looks like more than ever its Brexit on the 29th March. The transition aka the WA is dead.

And the eu have been slapped in yhe face tonight. So their never going to agree an extension to Article 50.

Oh and there isnt enough time for a general election or referendum.

17 days till Brexit.

Edited March 12, 2019 by stevewinn

[itsnotoutthere]

28 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Why should we accept the result of another referendum or GE after the democratic process of the 17.4miliion has been ignored. Because what you prove by having another vote or GE is democracy is dead. As we can pick and choose what result we like or dont like.

So lets enact the mandate of the first vote shall we. And then we can talk sensibly about referendums and general elections.

I bet you never thought youd find yourself arguing against democracy.

It looks like more than ever its Brexit on the 29th March. The transition aka the WA is dead.

And the eu have been slapped in yhe face tonight. So their never going to agree an extension to Article 50.

Oh and there isnt enough time for a general election or referendum.

17 days till Brexit.

Indeed Steve, this has been my contention all along. Why should we have another referendum when we can't trust the people calling for it to abide by the outcome?

They've already demonstrated they can't be trusted with the result.

[itsnotoutthere]

If Brexit doesn't happen after all this, it is my sincere wish that an election is called, and all those people who voted leave and feel cheated vote Ukip,

That would send the clearest message possible to the liars in Westminster.

It seems Ukip are the only political party that do exactly what they say they will do.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2019 by itsnotoutthere

[RAyMO]

38 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

It looks like more than ever its Brexit on the 29th March

How do you get that? As they said in parliament today even the dogs in the street know that the govt resolution tomorrow against  no deal will pass

Brexit on the brink

[spud the mackem]

10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

It looks like May's early hours deal is dead.

Attorney general Cox analysis released, para 19

"The Risk remains unchanged. Including "No internationally lawful means of exiting the protocols arrangement, save by agreement".

Its over for May.

The title of worst PM in History as to go to someone. that someone is one Theresa May.
 

Sorry mate I disagree with your statement that May is the worst P.M. , because there is 2 or 3 who could be worse than her , namely the guy who tried making friends with Hitler (I've forgot his name) and our enemy number 1 , T.Blair  , Maggie,  Eden and Wilson , in fact IMO  we haven't had a good one since  Lord Churchill.

[stevewinn]

2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

How do you get that? As they said in parliament today even the dogs in the street know that the govt resolution tomorrow against  no deal will pass

Brexit on the brink

These votes are not legally binding. Plus they've just voted No to the WA which was the transition agreement. Which was to lead to a possible trade deal talks. So that's dead. 

The vote tomorrow. Do you want to leave on a no deal. Obviously they'll vote no to that. But there is no deal as the EU insisted on the WA being agreed and then trade talks can begin. Well you know what's happened to that today. 

Then Thursday, vote to extend article 50. They can vote yes. But its then reliant on the EU agreeing. Why would the EU agree? Their best offer the WA as been defeated twice and this country is not going to where the EU want. 

The only thing which is written in law and legally binding is the (EU) withdrawal agreement. 23:00:00 29th March. This is the one and only ultimate default position. 

We've arrived, It's simple, it's now time to leave. You clinging on to false hope that we remain as EU members is in vain. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Unusual Tournament]

8 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Why should we accept the result of another referendum or GE after the democratic process of the 17.4miliion has been ignored. Because what you prove by having another vote or GE is democracy is dead. As we can pick and choose what result we like or dont like.

So lets enact the mandate of the first vote shall we. And then we can talk sensibly about referendums and general elections.

I bet you never thought youd find yourself arguing against democracy.

It looks like more than ever its Brexit on the 29th March. The transition aka the WA is dead.

And the eu have been slapped in yhe face tonight. So their never going to agree an extension to Article 50.

Oh and there isnt enough time for a general election or referendum.

17 days till Brexit.

Fact is that no one can agree to what type of Brexit they should have. The Brexit referendum was non-binding. And believe it or not remain voters are the largest block in Parliament and with 48% of the referendum vote they shouldn’t be silenced anymore. The parameters have changed. It’s not a case of choosing when the people and parliament can’t decide.

May ran the clock down and failed. Hard Brexit might just happen. But you would need May in government to do that. The million pound question is will May hand Brexit to those that sabotaged it (brexiteers) or will she resign and force an election and a delay in Brexit? 

Prediction: May will call for a government of national unity and the EU will delay Brexit on the provision that a new Brexit referendum is called. and the UK will either stay or soft Brexit and the brexiteers will all go into voluntary exile to France and Spain. 

[stevewinn]

4 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Fact is that no one can agree to what type of Brexit they should have. The Brexit referendum was non-binding. And believe it or not remain voters are the largest block in Parliament and with 48% of the referendum vote they shouldn’t be silenced anymore. The parameters have changed. It’s not a case of choosing when the people and parliament can’t decide.

May ran the clock down and failed. Hard Brexit might just happen. But you would need May in government to do that. The million pound question is will May hand Brexit to those that sabotaged it (brexiteers) or will she resign and force an election and a delay in Brexit? 

Prediction: May will call for a government of national unity and the EU will delay Brexit on the provision that a new Brexit referendum is called. and the UK will either stay or soft Brexit and the brexiteers will all go into voluntary exile to France and Spain. 

please make your mind up, you've flipped more times than a pan cake with your predictions.

(On the bold) sobering thought of the day for your good self. If the referendum was a general election the Leave party would have won by a landslide with 67.6% of the vote. Resulting in the Leave party winning 270 seats and the Remain party winning just 129 seats. 75% of Tory constituencies voted Leave. 61% of Labour constituencies voted leave.

Parliament needs to reflect that fact, they must obey their constituents. i like the way you think 17.4million voters can be ignored, Mao would be proud.

 

[Unusual Tournament]

59 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

please make your mind up, you've flipped more times than a pan cake with your predictions.

(On the bold) sobering thought of the day for your good self. If the referendum was a general election the Leave party would have won by a landslide with 67.6% of the vote. Resulting in the Leave party winning 270 seats and the Remain party winning just 129 seats. 75% of Tory constituencies voted Leave. 61% of Labour constituencies voted leave.

Parliament needs to reflect that fact, they must obey their constituents. i like the way you think 17.4million voters can be ignored, Mao would be proud.

 

i haven't flip flopped in the least. show me where you think i have? on the other hand I'm confused how you can refer to the referendum as endorsement of hard brexit when the brexit camp is divided between hard and soft. you yourself have threatened riot and rebellion if Theresa May's Brexit becomes law. how the bloody hell can you equate the two brexit camps as one? 

[stevewinn]

6 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

i haven't flip flopped in the least. show me where you think i have? on the other hand I'm confused how you can refer to the referendum as endorsement of hard brexit when the brexit camp is divided between hard and soft. you yourself have threatened riot and rebellion if Theresa May's Brexit becomes law. how the bloody hell can you equate the two brexit camps as one? 

Tuesday Prediction. General election.

Wednesdays Prediction. May will call for a government of national unity. & second Referendum

Thursdays Prediction??????????

Leave means Leave, How we've all got caught up in a deal is completely bizarre.

Good news today: finally published.

10% on German Cars. wow.

full list of Tariffs.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/temporary-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-after-eu-exit/mfn-and-tariff-quota-rates-of-customs-duty-on-imports-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal