Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[Setton]

19 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Labour, UKIP and Conservative were standing on a brexit policy using that logic leave got 57%.

UKIP were already included in that 34.9%. But, yes, about 58% backed leave supporting parties. They did not, however, back your idea of leaving, despite the repeated claims that 'the vast majority now want to leave without a deal'. 

11 minutes ago, bee said:

 

well if we are going to play around with the statistics... 23.2% of the vote is unknown as to
their Leave (with or withour a deal) or Remain desires... the combined Labour and Conservative vote
was the 23.2% share and this is the unknown factor.... as they probably voted out of loyalty to the party
but may be Leave or Remain.... ? 

I'm not sure 'adding' counts as playing with statistics but, yes a fair portion is unknown. But, as with everything, we can only work with what we do know. Which is that the order of popularity is:

Remain > no deal > deal

Also, I am now saying remain did better than no deal. I missed the 3.4% for Change UK (probably says something about their impact). So the figures are actually at 39.4% remain, 34.9% no deal, 23.2% deal. 

So Brexit Party win the election but remain has the popularity. 

[hetrodoxly]

2 minutes ago, bee said:

 

@hetrodoxly.... I'm glad you just made that edit in your previous post......(about the Green Party policies)
it did my head in briefly... I was like..... what  !!! 

I was fast.

[bee]

3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

As it stands, a "no-deal" Brexit (e.g. a true Brexit) is the default condition come October. If the Conservatives elect a 'true' Brexit PM, then I don't think that Parliament can do anything to prevent him/her taking us out of the EU ? 

 

I heard something last night when Corbyn made a statement after the results came in and he seems to
think that they can prevent a No Deal Brexit.... so dunno.... doesn't all this come from the Gina Miller*
thing and taking the decision away from the Government and giving it to the MPs.... ?

* and her backers who made sure they themselves weren't made public...

[RAyMO]

6 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

It proves we knew what we were voting for, we haven't changed our minds and the vast majority of leavers are willing to do it on WTO.

True - but this account for only about 35% of those that voted.  So 65% against WTO.

[bee]

7 minutes ago, Setton said:

So the figures are actually at 39.4% remain, 34.9% no deal, 23.2% deal. 

 

'''''''''' and a partridge in a pear treeeeeeee'''''''''''''

yes it's time I stopped and got out into the lovely summer day with the dog.... 

 

[RAyMO]

15 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

I don't think that Parliament can do anything to prevent him/her taking us out of the EU ? 

Off course it can - what is the Tory / DUP working majority?  Its tiny anyway - so only a couple more need to join Change UK as they themselves join the Liberal party. At that stage a vote of no confidence is winnable. How many Tory MPs will walk rather than stay in a party led by Johnson?

Edited May 27, 2019 by RAyMO

[Duke Wellington]

22 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Brexit Party stood on.

WTO.

 

Green Party stood on.

Our policies:

• Cancel Trident replacement, saving at least £110 billion over the next 30 years.
• A humane immigration and asylum system that recognises and takes responsibility for Britain’s ongoing role in causing the flow of migrants worldwide.
• Implement a UK-wide strategy to tackle gender based violence, including domestic violence, rape and sexual abuse, FGM and trafficking.
• An ethical foreign policy that builds capacity for conflict resolution, and end support to aggressive wars of intervention. No more arms sales to oppressive regimes.

• Trade rules that respect human rights, labour standards, environmental standards and climate commitments with mechanisms for individuals, groups and communities to bring grievances.
• Strengthen the global deal on climate change, including by delivering climate justice and promoting ecologically sustainable development so that poorer countries can cope with the impacts of climate change
• Increase the overseas aid budget from 0.7% of GDP to 1.0% of GDP.
•  

I dont think most people are even aware of the Green Party policies.

Instead its a vote for environmental concerns.

[hetrodoxly]

1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

True - but this account for only about 35% of those that voted.  So 65% against WTO.

Conservative and Labour voters could have been brexiteers who wanted WTO but voted 'their' party through loyalty, the Greens have been campaigning that Brexit isn't important either way because of climate change, the fact is the only thing we know is the 5 week old Brexit 'WTO' party won it by a long way.

[Duke Wellington]

I was expecting the Brexit Party to do a little better than that - over 30 seats.

But still, a respectable performance and good kick in delivered to Lib and Con.

[TigerBright19]

Don't forget Northern Ireland.  Votes are being counted today.  Sinn Fein (remain) lost big in the south last night.  If the same happens in the North then there could be a few more Brexit points added here from the TUV, DUP, UUP, and Conservative candidates here.  Although the vote would be split between them, but it might reveal the overall total if a second referendum was held.

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Aaron2016

[Duke Wellington]

Did Lab get punished less than Con simply because they arent in Government so people dont blame them a much for the lack of a Brexit outcome (whatever that outcome is)?

[Setton]

9 minutes ago, bee said:

 

'''''''''' and a partridge in a pear treeeeeeee'''''''''''''

yes it's time I stopped and got out into the lovely summer day with the dog.... 

 

Snap. Enjoy! 

[Setton]

5 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Conservative and Labour voters could have been brexiteers who wanted WTO but voted 'their' party through loyalty, 

Or they could be ardent remainers who voted out of loyalty. We don't know. 

We do know that remain parties were more popular than no deal ones. 

I presume, as the brave defenders of direct democracy, you will now be campaigning for a second referendum? 

[hetrodoxly]

1 minute ago, Setton said:

We don't know. 

Yes, you've got something right.

[Duke Wellington]

10 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Haha... pro-remain parties have the numbers.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-eu-elections-exit-polls-show-tie-between-the-brexit-party-and-pro-remain-parties-gbp-usd-may-rise-201905261815

Funny, I thought the leavers voted for the Brexit Party and those who want to remain voted for Liberal Democrats.

The shear arrogance of claiming the Green Party vote, Conservative vote, and Labour vote, are remainers. Tut tut.

[RAyMO]

10 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

Don't forget Northern Ireland.  Votes are being counted today.  Sinn Fein (remain) lost big in the south last night.  If the same happens in the North then there could be a few more Brexit points added here from the TUV, DUP, UUP, and Conservative candidates here.  Although the vote would be split between them, but it might reveal the overall total if a second referendum was held.

 

.If SF lose share it will not go to any of the parties you list it will go to sdlp or alliance. Following the local elections here I would expect the alliance to do better share ways than previously. In fact commentators are debating whether unionist / Brexit parties will hold their second seat. Could be the first time ever NI does not return 2 unionists.

However unlike other places the turnout in NI is down - so not sure how that will play. However NI has been a clear remain area and think it will stay that way if not very slightly become more remain. so no help to net Brexit figure from NI, I believe.

Edited May 27, 2019 by RAyMO

[Setton]

3 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Yes, you've got something right.

Same question to you as to bee - what do you think I've got wrong in the figures? 

[hetrodoxly]

3 minutes ago, Setton said:

Same question to you as to bee - what do you think I've got wrong in the figures? 

You claimed votes from other parties as remain votes, when i claimed votes from other parties 'could' be for leave WTO you post we don't know.

[TigerBright19]

Did Nigel get his numbers right this morning?  Was he referring to individual votes, and they were referring to seats won?

 

Skip to 4:00

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Aaron2016

[Unusual Tournament]

I read that Farage’s vote is only 5% points above the 2014 results. Can anyone confirm ?

edit.

They switched en masse towards Mr Farage's new organisation, the Brexit Party. With 32% of the vote, its level of support was as much as five points higher than that of UKIP in the last European elections, in 2014.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48402593

Edited May 27, 2019 by Captain Risky

[stevewinn]

2 hours ago, bee said:

and so it begins....

The Remain Camp trying to claim victory....

but this is in line with the Topsy Turvy world of modern politics where everything is turned on it's head..

 

 

Bee, and so it does begin. last night was great, but its even better today, what we once called remainers should now be called democracy deniers, its like they dont know how democracy works, in order to "win" they now add up any and all parties in order to fit their position and then claim victory. Facts such as Brexit won Nationally, Brexit Party is the single biggest party in the EU Parliament. Brexit party wins 9 out of 12 regions and comes second in two and not contesting seats in the other.

The irony, they add up all the parties to try and get a percentage greater than the single Brexit party so they can achieve a clear percentage difference to claim victory, Yet these democracy deniers could not accept a 52% 48%. 

that's how desperate they've become and they are simply not learning and these are the supposedly educated ones.

Just look at the Map. and see how foolish it is to add up all the parties. and Brexit party come second in Scotland. its only London where the Brexit party finished third but still got two MEP's its clear London our capital has fallen to the foreigners.

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by stevewinn

[Unusual Tournament]

...actually little has really change for Farage and leave. It’s remain that has exploded outta the gate.

[stevewinn]

2 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

...actually little has really change for Farage and leave. It’s remain that has exploded outta the gate.

Actually you haven't got a clue as you continually prove.

the democracy denier melt down this morning is something to behold. i love it. please continue.

 

 

 

 

[TigerBright19]

My colleagues at work are Labour supporters (family held tradition) and they voted for Leave in 2016.  They voted Labour last week because (again tradition) but also because they saw the Brexit Party as a break-away version of the Conservative party owing to their association with its members and that is why (despite being Leave supporters) they would not vote for the Brexit party, and put Labour first, and yes, they would vote for Leave in a second referendum.  So there could be a large percentage of the Labour vote that want to leave, but they just don't want to associate their vote with members who are/were Tories.

What the Brexit party needs to do, is not tie themselves too closely with the Conservative view point, and they could rake in many more Labour votes.

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Aaron2016

[itsnotoutthere]

2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

If those figures are correct It is a good weekend -

Brexit Party get nowhere near 40% some expected, though Farage's 2019 party did well to gain 4.1% points more than Farage's 2014 party.

Ukip collapse

SNP surge in Scotland

Labour likely to tack to remain / referendum

Some conservative MPs hint they'll bring down the government rather than allow no Deal

Out and out WTO leavers only get 34.9% of the vote

Remain / referendum out poll WTOers 

I heard on the TV last night but  don't have the figures that Wales tilted remain.

Tommy whatshisname comes bottom of the pile

NI still to to be counted.

all in all a good weekend.

'None so blind as those that will not see'