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keithisco

Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

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bee
25 minutes ago, Setton said:

Except those 17 million won't all vote together. For the simple reason Brexit is not everyone's top priority. Just like the Lib Dems did not get 16 million votes in the last election from remainers. 

 

I take your point.... but maybe even Remainers balked at giving too much power to the Lib Dems... 
I mean... there are limits ^_^

but anyway... regarding the voting numbers and working with approximations... 

If the two main parties fail to deliver after all this time and disrespect 17.4 million  voters.. 
There are going to be some seriously p***ed off people and even if that only results in half
the Leave voters deserting the 2 main parties....the results could be approximately thus.....
I won't show my working out unless anyone is keen to see it.... :) 

Con - 9,125,000

Lab - 8,125,000

Brex - 8,750,000

The UKIP / Brexit Party split vote could have an effect but this could be balanced out by the new
'Independent Group'.... taking more votes away from Lab and Con....

Basically if only half of Leave Voters desert the 2 main parties... and mostly go with Farage's Brexit Party..
Then a 3rd and equally big Party will suddenly emerge....

In theory...  :) . but it could easily become a reality after this ridiculous fiasco the House of Commons
has put the country through...... 


 

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Setton
1 hour ago, bee said:

 

I take your point.... but maybe even Remainers balked at giving too much power to the Lib Dems... 
I mean... there are limits ^_^

but anyway... regarding the voting numbers and working with approximations... 

If the two main parties fail to deliver after all this time and disrespect 17.4 million  voters.. 
There are going to be some seriously p***ed off people and even if that only results in half
the Leave voters deserting the 2 main parties....the results could be approximately thus.....
I won't show my working out unless anyone is keen to see it.... :) 

Con - 9,125,000

Lab - 8,125,000

Brex - 8,750,000

The UKIP / Brexit Party split vote could have an effect but this could be balanced out by the new
'Independent Group'.... taking more votes away from Lab and Con....

Basically if only half of Leave Voters desert the 2 main parties... and mostly go with Farage's Brexit Party..
Then a 3rd and equally big Party will suddenly emerge....

In theory...  :) . but it could easily become a reality after this ridiculous fiasco the House of Commons
has put the country through...... 


 

But, even if your calculations are right (suspect a bit of simplifying gone on), a Lab/IG or Con/IG coalition would mean the Brexit party would have next to no power in parliament. 

Personally, I think it'd be great to have a couple more viable parties (even a Brexit one!). Can't see it happening though. Soon as Brexit is settled, everyone will vote for their usual parties, I'm sure. 

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bee
13 minutes ago, Setton said:

But, even if your calculations are right (suspect a bit of simplifying gone on), a Lab/IG or Con/IG coalition would mean the Brexit party would have next to no power in parliament. 

Personally, I think it'd be great to have a couple more viable parties (even a Brexit one!). Can't see it happening though. Soon as Brexit is settled, everyone will vote for their usual parties, I'm sure. 

 

oh I don't know... we will have to see how it all pans out.....

 

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RAyMO
2 hours ago, Setton said:

Soon as Brexit is settled, everyone will vote for their usual parties, I'm sure. 

Depends very much how it pans out. Voters will not forgive a party for bringing economic and social hardship even if that was the implicit outcome voted for in the 2016 referendum. Unless the immediate negative impacts expected by the government were eliminated by the next election, I feel the party that delivered Brexit will be punished by the populace.

Hence i believe May will do all she can to avoid a no deal.

Edited by RAyMO
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Captain Risky
14 hours ago, stevewinn said:

We knew politics in this country was broken long before the Referendum vote. trouble is General Elections are never enough of a catalyst alone for change, not even the expenses scandal, But Brexit is. The HoC is being exposed like never before. Change is coming and its been long over due.

Leaving the EU is fast becoming a secondary issue, the fight, people vs Parliament is about to begin. Brexit will naturally follow in the aftermath of the old politics and ushered in under the new politics.when the time comes to go to war we take an army. were 17.4million strong. Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war!

 

LOL... so armed rebellion is it, steve?

 ...was it politics that was broken or brexit being nothing but clear cut? its just impossible for a global economic and military power to isolate itself from its sphere of influence, Europe. and thats what leaving the EU is about. the 17.4 million were i'll informed and sold a dream that has become a nightmare. 

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stevewinn
2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

LOL... so armed rebellion is it, steve?

 ...was it politics that was broken or brexit being nothing but clear cut? its just impossible for a global economic and military power to isolate itself from its sphere of influence, Europe. and thats what leaving the EU is about. the 17.4 million were i'll informed and sold a dream that has become a nightmare. 

Brexit is about leaving a political project. Nothing more nothing less. And thats the key words a political project.

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stevewinn

 

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RabidMongoose

SNP just had an amendment voted on in Parliament

In a big surprise Parliament has voted with an overwhelming majority 324-288 not to stay in the EU if we dont get a deal (regardless of exit date).

Surprise, surprise, who would have thought that Parliament would vote for a Hard-Brexit if there is no deal. I`m especially surprised that came from the SNP.

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spud the mackem
On ‎26‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 6:40 PM, RabidMongoose said:

I think if 20,000 people go rioting about it that will set it all off like a spark in a tinderbox. It will flare up into mass rioting worse than has been going on in France.

I note the Queen has her `holiday` booked until it all settles down again lmao.

Maybe the Queen should call all leaders into her office and tell them to get on with the job that her subjects voted for , because if it goes on much longer with the spineless cretins we call a Gov't , I guess we just may have a rebellion .

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spud the mackem
19 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Depends very much how it pans out. Voters will not forgive a party for bringing economic and social hardship even if that was the implicit outcome voted for in the 2016 referendum. Unless the immediate negative impacts expected by the government were eliminated by the next election, I feel the party that delivered Brexit will be punished by the populace.

Hence i believe May will do all she can to avoid a no deal.

It won't be the Brexit M.P.'s who will be punished ,it will be the Remainer M.P.'s who went against the wishes of their constituency voters who voted to leave , they will be out of a job at the next election .

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RAyMO

Yvette Cooper's amendment which states that if MPs vote to delay Brexit, the government should seek an extension from the EU and bring forward legislation to change, in law, the date of the UK's departure.

passed by 502 to 20 and supported by the government.

 

Edited by RAyMO

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stevewinn
2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Yvette Cooper's amendment which states that if MPs vote to delay Brexit, the government should seek an extension from the EU and bring forward legislation to change, in law, the date of the UK's departure.

passed by 502 to 20 and supported by the government.

 

it was a strange amendment. it just repeated what Theresa May said yesterday. plus its non-binding. none of these votes are, its a complete waste of time.

it was selected purely to try and judge numbers for the real vote next Wednesday.

Have you noted all three votes next week, not one of them stops Brexit.

the extension to Article 50 would be till June. what do you aim to achieved within those extra 3 months? does just three months mitigate the cliff edge?

 

 

Edited by stevewinn
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Captain Risky
10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Brexit is about leaving a political project. Nothing more nothing less. And thats the key words a political project.

Yes, but it’s not as easy as just setting a date and expecting nothing will change. There is gonna be a vacuum and others will step into it. It’s a process that doesn’t just stop at an agreed date. More importantly there is a price to pay. Enter the ferryman. 

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RAyMO
9 hours ago, stevewinn said:

what do you aim to achieved within those extra 3 months? does just three months mitigate the cliff edge?

well the rhetoric is they have had 2 years and couldn't solve the issues but that is not true - nobody outside of a select few were involved in Mays plan and certainly no effort was made at cross party consensus, a big negative given that May has a minority government. 

so effectively giving parliament 3 mths more is doubling the time Parliament has had to consider the issues and involving those outside of Mays party increases the chance of success. After all she is now guaranteeing alignment of workers rights, and playing pork barrel politics promising more money for largely Labour constituencies - not saying either are right, just demonstrating she can use the time to influence the votes. .

It is quite clear the direction of travel is that there will be a brexit but it will not be a no deal brexit, not on the 29th of March and not in June either.

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Captain Risky
10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

it was a strange amendment. it just repeated what Theresa May said yesterday. plus its non-binding. none of these votes are, its a complete waste of time.

it was selected purely to try and judge numbers for the real vote next Wednesday.

Have you noted all three votes next week, not one of them stops Brexit.

the extension to Article 50 would be till June. what do you aim to achieved within those extra 3 months? does just three months mitigate the cliff edge?

 

 

looks to me that they are delaying leaving. no agreement and then another delay until the only way to break the deadlock will be another referendum. basically kicking the can down the road. 

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bee
10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

it was a strange amendment. it just repeated what Theresa May said yesterday. plus its non-binding. none of these votes are, its a complete waste of time.

it was selected purely to try and judge numbers for the real vote next Wednesday.

Have you noted all three votes next week, not one of them stops Brexit.

the extension to Article 50 would be till June. what do you aim to achieved within those extra 3 months? does just three months mitigate the cliff edge?

 

 

 

it must be that It's the best those trying to stop Brexit have at the moment.... (as you know.. I'm just stating the obvious)
to delay and keep working to deny the democratic decision that was made to leave....
the two main parties are so hopeless it's not funny...

The ridiculous Media are doing their very best to con the public into perceiving it all as the Brexit Crisis...!
The only crisis we have is that the MPs seem incapable of carrying out the democratic process because they
don't respect the people who they are SUPPOSED to serve.... (and who pay their wages)

One thing about a delay.....  we have the French riots and protests threatening to bring EU puppet Macron
down.... other economies in the EU in trouble... Populist politics on the rise....

if the treacherous MPs in the House of Commons leave it too long instead of leaving the sinking ship we might go
down with it... 

that's a bit of a dramatic statement, I know..... but things can happen very quickly in politics when the dominoes
start to fall....

 

 

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bee
1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

well the rhetoric is they have had 2 years and couldn't solve the issues but that is not true - nobody outside of a select few were involved in Mays plan and certainly no effort was made at cross party consensus, a big negative given that May has a minority government. 

so effectively giving parliament 3 mths more is doubling the time Parliament has had to consider the issues and involving those outside of Mays party increases the chance of success. After all she is now guaranteeing alignment of workers rights, and playing pork barrel politics promising more money for largely Labour constituencies - not saying either are right, just demonstrating she can use the time to influence the votes. .

It is quite clear the direction of travel is that there will be a brexit but it will not be a no deal brexit, not on the 29th of March and not in June either.

 

I take your point(s)

But no matter how long it takes..... Parliament* is failing to understand that Leave Means Leave...

If May's ( EU's) deal hadn't been so sneaky to try and keep the UK locked into the single market and
customs union indefinitely.... the deal would have gone through and most people would have accepted
the delay of the 'transition period'..... but they had to try and pull that dirty trick because it looks like they
need the UK's money to keep the whole political project afloat....

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... it appears that the EU need us more than we need them.... 

* edit to add.... not ALL the MPs... but enough of them to create a shambles...

 

Edited by bee
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stevewinn
10 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Yes, but it’s not as easy as just setting a date and expecting nothing will change. There is gonna be a vacuum and others will step into it. It’s a process that doesn’t just stop at an agreed date. More importantly there is a price to pay. Enter the ferryman. 

You have to set a time and date. How else can you leave, officially.

7 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

looks to me that they are delaying leaving. no agreement and then another delay until the only way to break the deadlock will be another referendum. basically kicking the can down the road. 

We cannot keep delaying, equally we cannot have another referendum when the first one hasnt been implemented.

And also, if we had another referendum and the outcome was the same then what would the politicians be saying, oh, you do really want to leave then, okay then we'll leave. Yet these are the same politicans that couldnt dont the job first time around.

Nah, its not going to wash. People can see whats happening, big govt backed by big business.  and when ad big govt and big business ever been for the people.

The man/woman on the street spends most of their lives fighting big govt and business. And yet now with brexit the same people are fighting big business and big govts cause.

 

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Captain Risky
1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

You have to set a time and date. How else can you leave, officially.

well you already set a date and time. how's that working for you?

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

We cannot keep delaying, equally we cannot have another referendum when the first one hasnt been implemented.

And also, if we had another referendum and the outcome was the same then what would the politicians be saying, oh, you do really want to leave then, okay then we'll leave. Yet these are the same politicans that couldnt dont the job first time around.

Nah, its not going to wash. People can see whats happening, big govt backed by big business.  and when ad big govt and big business ever been for the people.

The man/woman on the street spends most of their lives fighting big govt and business. And yet now with brexit the same people are fighting big business and big govts cause.

well there is the possibility that May is delaying to frighten the chit outta the ERG into voting for her plan. and its working, especially with Rees Moggs already publicly stating that he's prepared to accept a compromise on the NI backstop. but the biggest concession the ERG make is that they acknowledge that another referendum kills brexit. they can see the writing on the wall even if you don't. 

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stevewinn
2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

well you already set a date and time. how's that working for you?

well there is the possibility that May is delaying to frighten the chit outta the ERG into voting for her plan. and its working, especially with Rees Moggs already publicly stating that he's prepared to accept a compromise on the NI backstop. but the biggest concession the ERG make is that they acknowledge that another referendum kills brexit. they can see the writing on the wall even if you don't. 

Its working out well. As businesses  adapt daily to an ever changing world. And currency fluctuations. majority of British businesses export under wto terms. Its nothing new. remainers go on like its just arrived from outta space. The firm i work for 80% exported to the world. 12% Europe. The rest domestic market.

This week they have filed there last EU VAT. We are ready for brexit. European suppliers are ready. The lorries are going via cherbourg, Calais and zebrugge. The tickets are booked. And the paper work for goods to be transported have already been electronic declaration sent for clearance at HMRCs centre in the midlands.

The only companies that will struggle are the ones who have administrators in charge but call themselves managers.

93%of the uk economy uneffected by brexit.

 

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Eldorado

Conservative MP George Eustice has quit the government over Theresa May's promise to allow MPs a vote on delaying Brexit, if her deal is rejected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47405261

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stevewinn
1 hour ago, Eldorado said:

Conservative MP George Eustice has quit the government over Theresa May's promise to allow MPs a vote on delaying Brexit, if her deal is rejected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47405261

15 brexiteer ministers have resigned since the vote. 21 govt ministers in total. - shows how disastrous Mays approach as been completely moving away from the manifesto.

Brexit is going to happen. the question is will it be March or June, -  and the outcome of Brexit will be exactly the same in March as it would be in June. So its clear, leave in March. Mp's are running out of delaying tactics. the sooner they accept the UK's membership of the EU is coming to an end the better for all.

 

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stevewinn

the voting options from March 12th summarised as follows:

1. Theresa May announced that on the 12th of March Parliament would be having a meaningful vote on her deal. If this passes the UK will leave the EU with the Prime Ministers deal.
2. If it is voted down, the following day, MPs will vote on whether to leave on a no deal Brexit.
3. If this fails, the UK will have a vote on delaying Brexit by extending Article 50 on March 14th. Will leave in June.
4. If this is voted down by MPs, the UK will be leaving on a no deal Brexit, if it passes the UK will need to request an extension to Article 50. Leave in June

WTO exit is still the default position,

 

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RoofGardener
10 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

the voting options from March 12th summarised as follows:

1. Theresa May announced that on the 12th of March Parliament would be having a meaningful vote on her deal. If this passes the UK will leave the EU with the Prime Ministers deal.
2. If it is voted down, the following day, MPs will vote on whether to leave on a no deal Brexit.
3. If this fails, the UK will have a vote on delaying Brexit by extending Article 50 on March 14th. Will leave in June.
4. If this is voted down by MPs, the UK will be leaving on a no deal Brexit, if it passes the UK will need to request an extension to Article 50. Leave in June

WTO exit is still the default position,

 

We will leave i June, huh ? Well.. that's not SO bad. 

But here's MY question: what exactly will change in the interim 2 months between March and June ? We're not talking about "fine tuning" here; the UK Parliament rejected the Withdrawal Agreement out of hand. The European Union have refused to re-open the negotiations, effectively stating that the WD is "take it or leave it". So what difference will 2 months make ? 

Or is the point just to accustom the British people to further delays ? 2 months here. 3 months there.... and so it goes.

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stevewinn
3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

We will leave i June, huh ? Well.. that's not SO bad. 

But here's MY question: what exactly will change in the interim 2 months between March and June ? We're not talking about "fine tuning" here; the UK Parliament rejected the Withdrawal Agreement out of hand. The European Union have refused to re-open the negotiations, effectively stating that the WD is "take it or leave it". So what difference will 2 months make ? 

Or is the point just to accustom the British people to further delays ? 2 months here. 3 months there.... and so it goes.

Its a question i'd like answered by the Govt.. But anyone who thinks getting an Article 50 extension from the EU27 will be a simple matter needs to read yesterday's statements from the French and Spanish. They will seek their price, turning the UK into the Oliver Twist of international negotiations.

 

 

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