Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[keithisco]

I've been mulling over some of this week-s Brexit news starting with Philip Hammond declaring that there will be at least a 3 year transition period after March 2019-during which time we would still be in the Single-Market to ease our exit from the EU. All well and good Mr Hammond, but that means STILL being under European Court of Justice jurisdiction, being a member of the Customs Union and have to accept Freedom of Movement rules. Former EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said the UK would not be able to strike a trade deal with the US before it has left the EU or during a transitional period.

So, if we are still in the Single Market, Customs Union, and under ECJ rule then we are also going to be liable to pay into the EU Commission; the problem then arises that as the UK will not be holding any Elections to the European Parliament in 2019 then we will have absolutely NO representation or say on how much the EU Monetary demands will be during this period.

For me; this represents a very Bad Deal, and I would most certainly advocate for a "No Deal" scenario.

Has Philip Hammond been talking out of turn? According to Liam Fox (currently negotiating the UK-USA Free Trade Deal in Washington) there have not been any Cabinet meetings that he has attended where this has been agreed. You decide what this is all about.

In other news: Michael Gove has has made a statement that absolutely no Chlorine washed chicken will be allowed into the UK-again, Michael Gove is not in Washington discussing the FTA so he has no right butting-in with his personal preferences, and as has been shown elsewhere on this forum there are no Health and Safety concerns in eating Chlorine-washed chicken anyway - exactly the opposite is true.  

It is good to hear from the newly appointed White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, that he is 100% certain that the USA WILL sign a FTA with the UK the day after we leave the EU.
 

[stevewinn]

Philip Hammond a case of - the cats away the mice will play, Theresa May is away on Holiday. May wants Hammond gone but is stuck with him fearing a rebellion if she replaces him. If she'd had won the landslide predicted he would not be the chancellor today.

Im open to a transition period but not in areas which keep us in EU institutions or paying a fee to trade. March 2019 all payments stop.

As each week passes i get the feeling Brexit is slipping away from us, you can almost feel a undercurrent in the establishment preparing us to stay in the EU, they'll push the transitional date past the next UK general election. giving rise to a political party running on a manifesto to remain, and if they win use that as a legal means to over turn the referendum. Also during this time from 2017 to 2022 the EU demands of a €100Billion "divorce" bill will be reduced to €50Billion and we'll agree to pay it, - in instalments out till 2022. this then allows the government to pass the payments off, saying we were still technically involved in the EU customs Union or whatever, some excuse.

Then we'll look like a compete and utter laughing stock to the World, all those countries lining up to do trade deals with us will have been for absolutely nothing as we are re-absorbed into the EU under worse conditions than we are now, continuing our great decline, our fall from grace and succumbing to the European Federation project, - completing the EU's long held ambition to quell the last troublesome member, as we become as subservient as say Belgium is to the EU. even ending up ditching the pound and using the €uro and for the first time in a thousand years we'll be a conquered people, given up without a fight because we lost the meaning, the definition of Sovereignty and democracy.

and if we Brexiteers accept any of the back sliding above then we deserve what we get, that's why its paramount we keep the pressure on the establishment, remind them that they might class themselves as democrats but we are the guardians of Democracy and since the Referendum and European Act of Parliament we are fighting on the side of Democracy and anyone trying to circumvent Democracy will be cast aside as they have no place in our Parliamentary Democracy. It could very well in the end come down to, cometh the hour cometh the man.

 

 

 

[eugenonegin]

6 hours ago, keithisco said:

I've been mulling over some of this week-s Brexit news starting with Philip Hammond declaring that there will be at least a 3 year transition period after March 2019-during which time we would still be in the Single-Market to ease our exit from the EU. All well and good Mr Hammond, but that means STILL being under European Court of Justice jurisdiction, being a member of the Customs Union and have to accept Freedom of Movement rules. Former EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said the UK would not be able to strike a trade deal with the US before it has left the EU or during a transitional period.

...

I should imagine the Brexiteers are feeling a bit let down and led astray now.

But they should have used their brains instead of listening to Nigel and Boris.

[bee]

6 hours ago, eugeneonegin said:

I should imagine the Brexiteers are feeling a bit let down and led astray now.

 

let down and led astray by politicians and voters who only support democratic decisions when they go their way -

 

[bee]

12 hours ago, stevewinn said:

 

As each week passes i get the feeling Brexit is slipping away from us, you can almost feel a undercurrent in the establishment preparing us to stay in the EU, 

 

At the moment it looks like it's going to be an uphill struggle to leave and I instinctively do not trust Hammond -

 

 

[bee]

 

In brief this is how I see the big picture ---

there is an underground stream of politicians, individuals / groups and some very wealthy people with a secret agenda -
who are in cahoots and working towards a one world government (that would by necessity be a kind of Orwellian dictatorship)

Brexit and the Trump Presidency has put a spanner in the works and everything is being done to remove the spanner(s) -

hence the problems 

 

 

 

[Unusual Tournament]

7 hours ago, eugeneonegin said:

I should imagine the Brexiteers are feeling a bit let down and led astray now.

But they should have used their brains instead of listening to Nigel and Boris.

well the thing is that brexit is a continuous cluster **** with no respite in site. Convincing the population that the UK is better off on its own is one thing making it work is quite another that will require Britain to stop being the UK and become a mini Europe. the very same Europe that the UK wants to escape from. the same regulations and laws that the UK has voted to remove will need to replicated all over again in another form. and so one ask's... if you cut trade links and investment, one has to ask what the hell is the reason for brexit if you have to start all over again with the same trade agreements and regulations to achieve the same result as you have now. 

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, bee said:

 

At the moment it looks like it's going to be an uphill struggle to leave and I instinctively do not trust Hammond -

 

 

without a coherent plan it was always going to be an uphill battle. and even if the government had a good plan the logic of going backwards in order to go forward is self defeating. in other words the best case scenario... the UK does everything right and gets a wonderful deal, what will the UK have that it didn't already have?  

[bee]

27 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

without a coherent plan it was always going to be an uphill battle. and even if the government had a good plan the logic of going backwards in order to go forward is self defeating. in other words the best case scenario... the UK does everything right and gets a wonderful deal, what will the UK have that it didn't already have?  

 

sovereignty 

self determination

more secure borders 

The British public was more or less conned, over time, into a political union with the EU/Germany/France -
and that's why all the emphasis now is on economic affairs - and the political implications are swept under the carpet -

 

[bee]

35 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

without a coherent plan it was always going to be an uphill battle.

blame that on Cameron and Company - who thought the public could be scared into voting to remain 
(with his fingers crossed behind his back no doubt)

 

[stevewinn]

3 minutes ago, bee said:

 

sovereignty 

self determination

more secure borders 

The British public was more or less conned, over time, into a political union with the EU/Germany/France -
and that's why all the emphasis now is on economic affairs - and the political implications are swept under the carpet -

 

Brexit is easy, its only made complicated by those who don't want to leave. and those who continue to say its hard then move out the way and let some else do it.

Try and get a trade deal with the EU. if they don't agree in principle within the next 6 months. then we go WTO. and press ahead with other trade partners, such as the USA, Australia. 

All payments to the EU stop on March 31st 2019.

All the legal frame work is in place, Referendum result accepted, (UK Leaving) the European Union Act passed, Royal assent etc... Article 50 triggered. Article 50 imposes the time frame of 2 years.

and lets not forget and remind ourselves the EU as given Spain a veto on any possible trade deal. (issue over Gib)

All the talk of a cliff edge, from a distance it looks like a cliff edge, but when you get to, and go over the edge you realise the "cliff" was a two foot drop.

[keithisco]

5 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

without a coherent plan it was always going to be an uphill battle. and even if the government had a good plan the logic of going backwards in order to go forward is self defeating. in other words the best case scenario... the UK does everything right and gets a wonderful deal, what will the UK have that it didn't already have?  

...it will have freed us from the inevitable Political integrationism that the EU really stands for-with Germany leading the new Federal States of Europe. That freedom alone is worth fighting for.

..what makes it even better for the UK is that our Trade shackles will be have been removed and we will no longer be wedded to the sinking ship that is the EU, or the Euro. Somehow the ECB has got to fund the 2 Trillion euros that it has paid out to artificially support the failing Eurozone and we want nothing to do with that.

By the middle of 2019 we also have the prospect of all restrictions that have been in place to prevent Croatians from evacuating their own moribund country, being removed with full Freedom of Movement for their nationals. Of course the UK can only "expect 40,000 maximum" (remember that Tony Blair?) new immigrants from Croatia.

Now, I do not expect an Aussie to have the same feelings as a Brit towards this nation, nor to understand that every single cemetery here has has at least one  fallen from the 2 major wars, and all for the concept of a freedom that is in danger of being subsumed into a European superstate. 

One size does NOT fit all

Edited July 31, 2017 by keithisco

[Space Commander Travis]

Helo everyone. Just popping in to let you know that I couldn't care less about brexit any more. 

Thank you and have a nice day. 

[eugenonegin]

7 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Brexit is easy, its only made complicated by those who don't want to leave. and those who continue to say its hard then move out the way and let some else do it.

Try and get a trade deal with the EU. if they don't agree in principle within the next 6 months. then we go WTO. and press ahead with other trade partners, such as the USA, Australia. 

All payments to the EU stop on March 31st 2019.

All the legal frame work is in place, Referendum result accepted, (UK Leaving) the European Union Act passed, Royal assent etc... Article 50 triggered. Article 50 imposes the time frame of 2 years.

and lets not forget and remind ourselves the EU as given Spain a veto on any possible trade deal. (issue over Gib)

All the talk of a cliff edge, from a distance it looks like a cliff edge, but when you get to, and go over the edge you realise the "cliff" was a two foot drop.

Well, of course we are committed to Brexit,and it will happen, so why does it appear we have no strategy, with less than two years to go?

How can senior ministers keep giving so radically different messages whenever they speak? Every month or so Mrs May spells out "the plan", then she is promptly contradicted by one of her senior ministers. I get that it is the work of those who are uncommitted, but seeing as we are committed, it seems a bit like us shooting ourselves in the foot all the time.

It  appears there  is no plan on the form of the border between Eire and NI, and no plan on the major issues of immigration, rights and the "Brexit Bill "just to name a few issues needing to be dealt with.

To extend the time will need the agreement of all the EU countries.

Everything seems disjointed, even her plan to strengthen her hand with a snap election ended t---up.

It's bit frightening really.

Edited July 31, 2017 by eugeneonegin

[stevewinn]

2 minutes ago, eugeneonegin said:

Well, of course we are committed to Brexit,and it will happen, so why does it appear we have no strategy, with less than two years to go?

How can senior ministers keep giving so radically different messages whenever they speak? Every month or so Mrs May spells out the plan, then she is promptly contradicted by one of her ministers.

There is no plan on the form of the border between Eire and NI, apart from the major issues of immigration, rights and the "Brexit Bill".

Everything seems disjointed, even her plan to strengthen her hand with a snap election ended t---up.

It's bit frightening really.

Well it depends who you listen to, Maybe it's the great deception. who knows, all the stories we hear are 99% anti-Brexit.

I was listening to a recording of David Davis on the Parliament channel only last night. EU select committee. watch it and tell me does it sound like we don't have a plan.

(from July 11th)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08z1gqd/select-committees-lords-eu-committee-with-david-davis-on-brexit

[keithisco]

19 minutes ago, eugeneonegin said:

Well, of course we are committed to Brexit,and it will happen, so why does it appear we have no strategy, with less than two years to go?

How can senior ministers keep giving so radically different messages whenever they speak? Every month or so Mrs May spells out the plan, then she is promptly contradicted by one of her ministers.

There is no plan on the form of the border between Eire and NI, apart from the major issues of immigration, rights and the "Brexit Bill".

Everything seems disjointed, even her plan to strengthen her hand with a snap election ended t---up.

It's bit frightening really.

I think the real problem here is that the EU negotiating team does not have a plan. They have a few nebulous ideas which very quickly become demands on their part and rather than actually negotiate they morph into their new "Red Lines". The EU have not put ANY figures against their monetary demands, instead they ask how much WE are prepared to pay - now, this is no way to run negotiations.

The other problem of course is that the arch-Remainer Philip Hammond, keeps making statements such as Freedom of Movement will be part of the "Transitional Arrangements" (today No10 was forced to issue a statement correcting him). He then retaliates against No 10 by saying that the UK will not do anything in relation to lowering Corporation Tax after we have left the EU, this is totally tying our own negotiators hands because the EU is scared to death of the UK grabbing huge inward investment from lowering of this tax.

Hammond is acting as a 5th Columnist for the EU and needs to go. I would add Michael Gove as well for undermining the UK negotiations with the USA by saying the ban on US chicken would remain.  

When it comes to Northern Ireland's border with Eire the UK has already said they would implement technology to recognise vehicles and passengers that have been pre-cleared to travel across a virtual border. The EU and Eire have rejected this eminently sensible plan and have not come up with ANY ideas themselves.

Edited July 31, 2017 by keithisco

[stevewinn]

The very nature of negotiating means you don't show your hand. The fact people are not fully aware of the detail and as a result don't think we have a plan means all is well, i'd be more concerned if @eugeneonegin knew the plan, because if he knows the EU knows.

[Unusual Tournament]

7 hours ago, bee said:

 

sovereignty 

self determination

more secure borders 

The British public was more or less conned, over time, into a political union with the EU/Germany/France -
and that's why all the emphasis now is on economic affairs - and the political implications are swept under the carpet -

 

Well this 'con' you speak about made the UK very rich and prosperous. I think it's fair and only right that we don't lose sight of this fact.

[stevewinn]

5 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Well this 'con' you speak about made the UK very rich and prosperous. I think it's fair and only right that we don't lose sight of this fact.

Now prove over the 43 years the UK wouldn't have done BETTER outside of the EU.

[Unusual Tournament]

7 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Now prove over the 43 years the UK wouldn't have done BETTER outside of the EU.

Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

 

as you can see the UK had its chance to prosper outside the EU and failed. I think the onus is on you to prove otherwise.

 

[stevewinn]

Just now, Captain Risky said:

Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

 

as you can see the UK had its chance to prosper outside the EU and failed. I think the onus is on you to prove otherwise.

 

I asked you to prove the UK wouldn't have done better over the 43 outside of the EU. it was unfair of me as you couldn't answer. but made the point perfectly that your argument to Bee was pointless.

[Unusual Tournament]

Just now, stevewinn said:

I asked you to prove the UK wouldn't have done better over the 43 outside of the EU. it was unfair of me as you couldn't answer. but made the point perfectly that your argument to Bee was pointless.

Your question is a hypothetical one. The closest I or anyone can answer factually is to show what actually did happen. And what happened is that the UK was a economic basket case until it joined the EU. 

[stevewinn]

Just now, Captain Risky said:

Your question is a hypothetical one. The closest I or anyone can answer factually is to show what actually did happen. And what happened is that the UK was a economic basket case until it joined the EU. 

whoosh.............

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, keithisco said:

...it will have freed us from the inevitable Political integrationism that the EU really stands for-with Germany leading the new Federal States of Europe. That freedom alone is worth fighting for.

..what makes it even better for the UK is that our Trade shackles will be have been removed and we will no longer be wedded to the sinking ship that is the EU, or the Euro. Somehow the ECB has got to fund the 2 Trillion euros that it has paid out to artificially support the failing Eurozone and we want nothing to do with that.

One size does NOT fit all

...I'm referring to your statement about removing trade shackles:

so, the post Brexit landscape will more than likely look like trade with country's that have infinitely lower wages. China, India and the Americas. What advantage will the U.K. have? What investment will come if the UK is no longer an EU springboard?

[keithisco]

4 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

...I'm referring to your statement about removing trade shackles:

so, the post Brexit landscape will more than likely look like trade with country's that have infinitely lower wages. China, India and the Americas. What advantage will the U.K. have? What investment will come if the UK is no longer an EU springboard?

I wasnt aware that the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway etc (you get my drift) have infinitely lower wages than the UK. You have fallen into the obvious Remoaner trap of believing that there will be absolutely NO trade with the EU27 after Brexit-this is a basic error and the income from tariffs we would place on BMW(for example) are worth hundreds of millions of pounds to the exchequer. As the Pacific nations expand their economic muscles then yes, they will want to put some of their new wealth into the UK, and even more so will want access to the City of London unique trading facilities and capabilities.

Moving on: we will be able to buy on the world commodities markets which will reduce prices for the UK consumer and at the same time support those 3rd world nations that are currently "locked-out" of selling into the EU because of protectionist tariffs, which we would not be obliged to levy. Instead of paying inflated French, German, Spanish, Italian prices for produce because of CAP subsidies, we would buy on the free market.