Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[godnodog]

23 hours ago, stevewinn said:

There is a massive capability gap between NATO and any would be EU army.

As it stands today any EU army cannot defend itself. - Russia would have fun.

A credible EU Army would need a substantial rise in spending. somewhere in the region of 6 to 8% GDP. and that's before we'd have to factor in € contributions to NATO IE: conform to NATO standards. 

If that was all met, eyebrows would certainly be raised when Germany going from a level of being a defensive force to one of offensive/expeditionary.

The secret is no-more, the EU is to become a Federation. EU passport, Single EU currency, EU central bank, all the powers of a united states of Europe, they cannot accomplish that without hard power, hard power in the form of a single EU army, for security and to project power beyond its borders any such Federation would naturally challenge and push up against global powers. including the United States.

now that the UK is leaving, I hope the Europeans go on and achieve it all. good luck to them, they'll need it.

 

 

I agree with everything you have written, specialy with current eu armies not being prepared against current russian military, and that is why I am in favor of an eu army, strictly for defensive reasons, thought eventually it would be used as a projection of force like what is done by the USA n Russia.

My personal opinion is that the Eu army should be created by trying to create a force capable of engaging the US (obviously in a pure hypothetical scenario) as the US military is #1 inpower

[Grey Area]

36 minutes ago, godnodog said:

I agree with everything you have written, specialy with current eu armies not being prepared against current russian military, and that is why I am in favor of an eu army, strictly for defensive reasons, thought eventually it would be used as a projection of force like what is done by the USA n Russia.

My personal opinion is that the Eu army should be created by trying to create a force capable of engaging the US (obviously in a pure hypothetical scenario) as the US military is #1 inpower

An EU army is not necessary.  If it is only a matter of defence surely member states could coordinate their forces, perhaps a defence committee dedicated to the defence of the EU, or a stand-by force for rapid reaction with each member ring fencing a certain amount of troops  and or materiel.

The only thing an EU army will do is take a step closer to a United States of Europe.  

If an EU army happens, I garuantee the next step will be a federal police force which will enshrine EU law within every member state.

[stevewinn]

11 minutes ago, godnodog said:

I agree with everything you have written, specialy with current eu armies not being prepared against current russian military, and that is why I am in favor of an eu army, strictly for defensive reasons, thought eventually it would be used as a projection of force like what is done by the USA n Russia.

My personal opinion is that the Eu army should be created by trying to create a force capable of engaging the US (obviously in a pure hypothetical scenario) as the US military is #1 inpower

on your last statement, EU force capable of engaging the US, even as allies that would pose real problems. - ally or not an EU armed forces that strong would be viewed as a concern, It would be History repeating itself, The same happened between the US and UK, we got around this problem with the "great Rapprochement" As American forces grew so did the potential of war, which actually seen America planning a war with Britain, in a "just in case" scenario; named War Plan Red, and even before the potential for war between two great powers was there, with natural tensions rising due to a rising power the UK agreed to disarm or reduce the numbers of warships, in a bid to avoid a naval arms race with the USA, for the first time in 200 hundred years dominance of the seas was given up without a fight. (Washington Naval Conference/treaty) 

By the time any EU armed forces got to the level of the USA, the USA might no longer be a super power or the worlds sole super power. so the above might not apply.

[keithisco]

Quote

“We will stand firm. We will take the difficult decisions, we will lower the French taxes, we will make our country more attractive.

“We will take the structural reforms and the structural decisions that are needed. For instance, we will simplify the Labour market.

“Many banks, many investors should be aware that France is changing.”

FRENCH finance minister Bruno Le Maire.

 

 

...as reported by Bloomberg today (above): it appears that France, so concerned that the UK would lower taxes to attract inward investment, is planning on doing just that.

Now, Hammond, speaking out of turn, has stated that the UK will NOT lower taxes to assist its future inward investment opportunities, so I am moved to ask "why not?", is he deliberately talking the UK into a corner where the UK loses out to another EU neighbour? Where is the logic or indeed the financial acumen making such a declaration?
 

Edited August 7, 2017 by keithisco

[eugenonegin]

3 hours ago, keithisco said:

 

...as reported by Bloomberg today (above): it appears that France, so concerned that the UK would lower taxes to attract inward investment, is planning on doing just that.

Now, Hammond, speaking out of turn, has stated that the UK will NOT lower taxes to assist its future inward investment opportunities, so I am moved to ask "why not?", is he deliberately talking the UK into a corner where the UK loses out to another EU neighbour? Where is the logic or indeed the financial acumen making such a declaration?
 

Why should he?

The UK has already signalled it is leaving the huge market it has on its doorstep.

It is going to, in some way, hinder the movement of its labour force and make the UK less attractive for employment.

It is paving the way for its international financial, pharmaceutical and other industries to relocate on the continent with no viable trading agreements.

There is no doubt the UK will take a hit on its economy, with living standards falling by up to 20% by 2025.

Why on earth would the UK want to become a tax haven?

Do we want to become like the Seychelles, where there are centres of intensive financial wealth, with wealthy foreigners making vast sums of money while the indigenous population bask on the beach waiting for coconuts to fall on their heads?

No, he wants us to be a viable industrial nation.

For that to work, we need to become worthwhile, not cheap.

We need to persuade the EU to invest in us, not the other way around.

 

Edited August 7, 2017 by eugeneonegin

[RoofGardener]

2 hours ago, keithisco said:

 

...as reported by Bloomberg today (above): it appears that France, so concerned that the UK would lower taxes to attract inward investment, is planning on doing just that.

Now, Hammond, speaking out of turn, has stated that the UK will NOT lower taxes to assist its future inward investment opportunities, so I am moved to ask "why not?", is he deliberately talking the UK into a corner where the UK loses out to another EU neighbour? Where is the logic or indeed the financial acumen making such a declaration?
 

It's all very well for the French finance minister to make a speech about reducing taxes and "simplifying" employment. However, will the French government actually DO any of it ? 

[eugenonegin]

26 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

It's all very well for the French finance minister to make a speech about reducing taxes and "simplifying" employment. However, will the French government actually DO any of it ? 

They won't need to.

The power house states of the EU will become so much more powerful once the UK has withdrawn from First World finance and industry.

They are just waiting for us to shoot ourselves in the head. They only have to wait 18 months.

The clock is ticking...

 

Edited August 7, 2017 by eugeneonegin

[Space Commander Travis]

7 hours ago, eugeneonegin said:

They won't need to.

The power house states of the EU will become so much more powerful once the UK has withdrawn from First World finance and industry.

They are just waiting for us to shoot ourselves in the head. They only have to wait 18 months.

The clock is ticking...

 

Are you sure you're not Alibongo? 

[RoofGardener]

8 hours ago, eugeneonegin said:

They won't need to.

The power house states of the EU will become so much more powerful once the UK has withdrawn from First World finance and industry.

They are just waiting for us to shoot ourselves in the head. They only have to wait 18 months.

The clock is ticking...

 

ROFL.... "withdrawn from First World finance and industry".. ????

Yeah.. right... I keep forgetting... the entire Realm will catch fire, burn down, fall over and sink into the sea the very INSTANT that we formally leave.

Eugeneonegin.... what makes you think that we will withdraw from "First World  finance and industry" ?

As for "The Power House" states; the UK is one of them. It is the second-largest net contributor to the EU budget. The remaining "Power House" states will now have to find a £7-billion-per-year shortfall in EU funding to continue supporting their Grand Expansion Plans (or even to just keep Greece afloat). Have you factored THAT in ?

[eugenonegin]

12 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

ROFL.... "withdrawn from First World finance and industry".. ????

Yeah.. right... I keep forgetting... the entire Realm will catch fire, burn down, fall over and sink into the sea the very INSTANT that we formally leave.

Eugeneonegin.... what makes you think that we will withdraw from "First World  finance and industry" ?

As for "The Power House" states; the UK is one of them. It is the second-largest net contributor to the EU budget. The remaining "Power House" states will now have to find a £7-billion-per-year shortfall in EU funding to continue supporting their Grand Expansion Plans (or even to just keep Greece afloat). Have you factored THAT in ?

We won't, they will.

I'm not doing a Vince Cable, running round in circles saying "We are all doomed, we are all doomed" like that chap from Dad's Army.

We will salvage something.

It is just that it is becoming increasingly obviously we have done ourselves damage, for no good reason.

[eugenonegin]

1 hour ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Are you sure you're not Alibongo? 

Now, he (or she) was a Doom Merchant, from his (or her) first post from what little I have read!

No, I'm not that bad, but I am a tad pessimistic about the outcome of Brexit.

[eugenonegin]

Brexit is a reality.

The whole world knows that.

I'd like someone to list the positives that that news has achieved so far.

One would think the new positive, powerful UK would have masses of investment.

All we can say as a victory, is that the real negatives have not yet happened.

The fact that a company or industry has not yet said it is leaving is hailed as a victory.

Nissan hasn't left, yea!

We've still got BMW!

President Trump has said we are "top of the list!" What a great president he is!

Let's see a staunch Brexiter list our positives so far, then I might change my mind. I'd really like to.

 

[eugenonegin]

Of course, this thread is not about Brexit per se,there is another thread for that.

This is about opening gambits.

In my next post, I'll list David Davis's achievements so far, a quarter of the way into negotiations.

[eugenonegin]

Umm,aah..

Er...

Did someone mention cake?

[bee]

 

On 06/08/2017 at 8:11 PM, Grey Area said:

Unsure what part of 'German tool' and 'internal police force' you are unclear about?

One thing is abundantly clear within the EU, Merkal does what she wants and the EU bosses roll over for her.  Any EU army would be at her beckon call, and it would be used to keep members in check, no doubt under the guise of peacekeeping and security.

It's who could come after Merkel that is of more concern, imo - she is helping to create the EU superstate  but once it is fully established
and backed by military force anyone or any group could come out of the woodwork and rise to power - 

the checks and balances of politically separate democratic sovereign nations would be gone -
 
 

Edited August 8, 2017 by bee
was going to add something then decided not to :)

[stevewinn]

15 hours ago, keithisco said:

 

...as reported by Bloomberg today (above): it appears that France, so concerned that the UK would lower taxes to attract inward investment, is planning on doing just that.

Now, Hammond, speaking out of turn, has stated that the UK will NOT lower taxes to assist its future inward investment opportunities, so I am moved to ask "why not?", is he deliberately talking the UK into a corner where the UK loses out to another EU neighbour? Where is the logic or indeed the financial acumen making such a declaration?
 

The UK Government will do whatever it takes to succeed, regardless of what any government minister currently says. We'll use all means once Brexit happens. Hammond even though he's opening his mouth, how much of it is actually planned.

On another issue, Theresa May as reiterated the Governments position. Free movement of people will end: - The talk of a transitional Agreement, The Government have not asked for one. We still have 19 months left to negotiate a proper Agreement:

The word was the UK was not prepared for negotiating, yet it is the EU who is using delaying tactics, The EU seems to think if it delays and creates difficulties the UK may think again or come creeping back.The EU has invented, totally invented the idea that the UK owes the EU a lot of money after we have left when there is no Treaty basis for this. They have proposed that the UK has to continue to accept rulings of the European Court of Justice in the way no other independent country that is an EU trading partner has to accept. They have suggested that EU citizens currently legally settled in the UK would continue to have EU rights policed by the EU instead of enjoying UK rights policed by the UK after exit. These are presumably provocative proposals designed to foment argument within the UK with a view to delaying Brexit.  

They are the delaying tactics, and its only coming from one side.

The UK for its part: have come forward with Citizens rights, IE: EU citizens will have the same legal rights as UK citizens. cannot not be any more fairer than that - On Trade the UK wanted to talk about a Free Trade agreement, the EU refused. So, its about time British citizens actually viewed what is actually happening from a legal basis in regards to the actual treaty.

 

 

Edited August 8, 2017 by stevewinn

[Space Commander Travis]

4 hours ago, eugeneonegin said:

Brexit is a reality.

The whole world knows that.

I'd like someone to list the positives that that news has achieved so far.

One would think the new positive, powerful UK would have masses of investment.

All we can say as a victory, is that the real negatives have not yet happened.

The fact that a company or industry has not yet said it is leaving is hailed as a victory.

Nissan hasn't left, yea!

We've still got BMW!

President Trump has said we are "top of the list!" What a great president he is!

Let's see a staunch Brexiter list our positives so far, then I might change my mind. I'd really like to.

 

You are beginning to write

very much like him

In haiku-like sentences

With spaces in between 

[RoofGardener]

On 07/08/2017 at 10:48 AM, Grey Area said:

Yes but all British armour comes with a kettle as standard (the only MBT's and AFV's in the world).  That makes each Tank worth 3 of any other nations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_vessel

That is - without doubt - the most fascinating and uplifting bit of information I have heard all year and - short of aliens landing in Birmingham or Chocolate being discovered on the Moon - is unlikely it be  displaced from its podium for the REST of the year !

[godnodog]

19 hours ago, Grey Area said:

An EU army is not necessary.  If it is only a matter of defence surely member states could coordinate their forces, perhaps a defence committee dedicated to the defence of the EU, or a stand-by force for rapid reaction with each member ring fencing a certain amount of troops  and or materiel.

The only thing an EU army will do is take a step closer to a United States of Europe.  

If an EU army happens, I garuantee the next step will be a federal police force which will enshrine EU law within every member state.

Disagree, I do think an EU army is necessary.

As for the federal police, the EU has the Europol, though it´s nothing like a federal police, and even if it does becomes like a federal police I don´t see that as a problem, and I give you an example: German executives have been arrested and convicted on corruption on Portuguese state officials regarding the purchase of 3 Trident Submarines, guess how many Portuguese were arrested and or face trial? Zero, even the files regarding the purchases have been "lost". I´m sure that you can provide an effective counter argument.

Truth be told, I am in favor of the EU moving forward to a  Federation of States, but I hope this process to be slow, really slow to allow discussions/negotiations in order to prevent another Greek situation (no offense to the good folks of Greece). 
 

 

[RoofGardener]

20 minutes ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

You are beginning to write

very much like him

In haiku-like sentences

With spaces in between 

The word fascism

Now has no meaning except...

Not desirable !

---------

The spaces we see

Are put in by Saruman.

Without asking us

[stevewinn]

29 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Disagree, I do think an EU army is necessary.

As for the federal police, the EU has the Europol, though it´s nothing like a federal police, and even if it does becomes like a federal police I don´t see that as a problem, and I give you an example: German executives have been arrested and convicted on corruption on Portuguese state officials regarding the purchase of 3 Trident Submarines, guess how many Portuguese were arrested and or face trial? Zero, even the files regarding the purchases have been "lost". I´m sure that you can provide an effective counter argument.

Truth be told, I am in favor of the EU moving forward to a  Federation of States, but I hope this process to be slow, really slow to allow discussions/negotiations in order to prevent another Greek situation (no offense to the good folks of Greece). 
 

 

If your in favour of a EU Federation are you also in favour of the people of Europe being asked that question in EU wide Referendums? or should like what's happened to date, the people denied that right and dragooned into a Federation?

[RoofGardener]

It seems like fracture lines are already widening in the EU, Stevewinn. 

Quite apart with the ongoing financial difficulties in Italy and Greece, it appears that Hungary, Czech and Poland are on the verge of being massively fined by the EU for refusing to abide by Brussels-imposed refugee quotas. 

Yup... you heard right. They are being COMPELLED by the EU to accept a quota of refugees (who - in practice - will never leave). The EU is over-riding their domestic immigration policy, and they are refusing to comply.

And it is not a "one-off" fine... it is rolling weekly or daily until they submit. Or until they leave !

Edited August 8, 2017 by RoofGardener

[keithisco]

1 minute ago, RoofGardener said:

It seems like fracture lines are already widening in the EU, Stevewinn. 

Quite apart with the ongoing financial difficulties in Italy and Greece, it appears that Hungary, Czech and Poland are on the verge of being massively fined by the EU for refusing to abide by Brussels-imposed refugee quotas. 

Yup... you heard right. They are being COMPELLED by the EU to accept a quota of refugees (who - in practice - will never leave). The EU is over-riding their domestic immigration policy, and they are refusing to comply.

And it is not a "one-off" fine... it is rolling weekly or daily until they submit. Or until they leave !

The incredible thing about this development is that these nations voted AGAINST the quota system, but do not have an opt-out clause written into their Treaties..

The EU will tear itself apart unless it accepts greater democratic involvement by nation-states...it is trying to move forward way too fast and has no clue about how it will organise itself in the future. It will have to reduce its membership, that is for certain to achieve Federalism.

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

It seems like fracture lines are already widening in the EU, Stevewinn. 

Quite apart with the ongoing financial difficulties in Italy and Greece, it appears that Hungary, Czech and Poland are on the verge of being massively fined by the EU for refusing to abide by Brussels-imposed refugee quotas. 

Yup... you heard right. They are being COMPELLED by the EU to accept a quota of refugees (who - in practice - will never leave). The EU is over-riding their domestic immigration policy, and they are refusing to comply.

And it is not a "one-off" fine... it is rolling weekly or daily until they submit. Or until they leave !

If a neutral was to take a step back and look at the EU, they'd see a political system collapsing. The Euro was the catalyst. quickly followed by a monumental foreign policy disaster in failed expansion in Ukraine bring conflict to the borders of Europe with a regional power in the form of Russia, - then another policy disaster in #allwelcome where one country (Germany) decided to unilaterally throw open the border gates of Europe, which as spread ill feeling, - A member country representing 16% of the budget leaving. Then we have future expansion, - Four countries, official candidates to join the EU, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania, all of whom will be net beneficiaries, so more strain on the already diminished EU budget. The EU is finished. you only have to look at all the gold being repatriated to European Nations from Canada and USA, Netherlands Germany for two, both of whom mulled over plans to reintroduce their original currencies, jumping in the lifeboats leaving the rest behind. Its a fragile state.

Edited August 8, 2017 by stevewinn

[godnodog]

8 hours ago, stevewinn said:

If your in favour of a EU Federation are you also in favour of the people of Europe being asked that question in EU wide Referendums? or should like what's happened to date, the people denied that right and dragooned into a Federation?

Using refer3ndum of course, but then again I dont want to see crap like I've seen in Britains refrerendum that lead to Brexit, and I dont mean the decision toleave the EU, I mean the crap said by stay and leave propaganda.

This is why I said the process should be slow.

Edited August 8, 2017 by godnodog