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keithisco

Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

I`m sorry but I have some understanding of economics. While my degree might not be in economics its in business meaning it puts one leg into economics. All politicians are lying to the people in an attempt to manipulate them. That is except for Jacob Rees-Moggs.

How to you tell the uneducated in economics that the guy is actually right? Hard-Brexit (which funnily enough I think we will get anyway) with no free trade agreements and us choosing not to apply any import tariffs is in the best interests of Britain. If we get it we will go through an economic miracle, the only real rival being a Trump USA. Why? All the EU economies are being held back. Oh and yes the US might stop Trump doing what he has been up to on their economy.

I`m sorry but I would vote Jacob Rees-Moggs as PM all the way.

Well I’m sure you do. You’re knowledgeable and articulate so I pay attention to what you post. But Ive been in business for 27 years and I’ve always been profitable. Building relationships with customers and suppliers and more importantly having a plan and sticking to it is what drives my business. Applying that to Brexit... well the UK has just middle fingered it’s supplier and customers and done so without a plan other than we will be successful because we’re British and we used to have an empire... a bit like closing a perfectly good business to open another without any idea what you’re going to sell. 

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danydandan
8 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Well I’m sure you do. You’re knowledgeable and articulate so I pay attention to what you post. But Ive been in business for 27 years and I’ve always been profitable. Building relationships with customers and suppliers and more importantly having a plan and sticking to it is what drives my business. Applying that to Brexit... well the UK has just middle fingered it’s supplier and customers and done so without a plan other than we will be successful because we’re British and we used to have an empire... a bit like closing a perfectly good business to open another without any idea what you’re going to sell. 

Certainly appears like a rudderless ship. 

What's more interesting is that PM May seems to want a hard brexit and stay in power, so she appears to be trying to appease everyone. All the while alienating the EU, Northern Ireland and others. 

 

Edited by danydandan

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Captain Risky
2 minutes ago, danydandan said:

Certainly appears like a rudderless ship. 

What's more interesting is that PM May seems to want a hard brexit and stay in power, so she appears to be trying to appease everyone. 

 

rudderless or did she purposely relinquished control of Brexit to the EU. let me explain... the second the UK or rather May agreed to the terms of separation  (withdrawal agreement) brexit was always going to be a knee jerk reaction to what the EU was going to dictate. and she wasn't alone. if the UK had any power then they would have just told the EU there are no terms of separation just leaving, good bye. the UK has no power and the brexiteers are only making noise for their own personel benefit. you just can't threaten the EU while accepting their terms to leave. doesn't make sense. so i think May's threats are empty. 

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danydandan
40 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

rudderless or did she purposely relinquished control of Brexit to the EU. let me explain... the second the UK or rather May agreed to the terms of separation  (withdrawal agreement) brexit was always going to be a knee jerk reaction to what the EU was going to dictate. and she wasn't alone. if the UK had any power then they would have just told the EU there are no terms of separation just leaving, good bye. the UK has no power and the brexiteers are only making noise for their own personel benefit. you just can't threaten the EU while accepting their terms to leave. doesn't make sense. so i think May's threats are empty. 

Another interesting development is that the US are telling May that the Belfast Agreement must be upheld if she wants a trade agreement with the US. According to our Irish Times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-uk-told-to-uphold-belfast-agreement-if-it-wants-us-trade-deal-1.3785317

 

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hetrodoxly
27 minutes ago, danydandan said:

Another interesting development is that the US are telling May that the Belfast Agreement must be upheld if she wants a trade agreement with the US. According to our Irish Times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-uk-told-to-uphold-belfast-agreement-if-it-wants-us-trade-deal-1.3785317

 

If we're forced to accept the EU deal we can't make a deal with the US anyway? the UK government have said they'll not build a border is Ireland going to break the Belfast agreement? we can't give in the the threats of violence if a group of terrorists form stating they'll set bombs off in Ireland if the UK dosen't make a clean break what happens then?

Edited by hetrodoxly
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danydandan
20 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

If we're forced to accept the EU deal we can't make a deal with the US anyway? the UK government have said they'll not build a border is Ireland going to break the Belfast agreement? we can't give in the the threats of violence if a group of terrorists form stating they'll set bombs off in Ireland if the UK dosen't make a clean break what happens then?

Are offthe opinion that only Republican terrorists are making threats? 

Edited by danydandan

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hetrodoxly
1 hour ago, danydandan said:

Are offthe opinion that only Republican terrorists are making threats? 

I've only heard Irish and EU politicians make these threats, i'm saying if BRA unit DD (Brexit Royal Army) threaten to bomb Ireland if we don't make a clean break should we give into these threats.

Edited by hetrodoxly

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danydandan
4 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

I've only heard Irish and EU politicians make these threats, i'm saying if BRA unit DD (Brexit Royal Army) threaten to bomb Ireland if we don't make a clean break should we give into these threats.

Obviously not, but there is a reason why the DUP are holding their stance too, it's to stop violence. The UVF have stated there will be violence if there is anything like a break with London. That includes checks in the Irish Sea and at Ferry Crossings. 

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RabidMongoose
12 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Well I’m sure you do. You’re knowledgeable and articulate so I pay attention to what you post. But Ive been in business for 27 years and I’ve always been profitable. Building relationships with customers and suppliers and more importantly having a plan and sticking to it is what drives my business. Applying that to Brexit... well the UK has just middle fingered it’s supplier and customers and done so without a plan other than we will be successful because we’re British and we used to have an empire... a bit like closing a perfectly good business to open another without any idea what you’re going to sell. 

When we leave the EU then we are in unknown territory when it comes to knowing how the external environment will change. It is simply too complex for any business to accurately predict. After we have left and things settle down then they can ascertain how they need to adjust. For now their scenario planning needs to buffer them against realistically possible levels of disruption.

I would say that customers are unlikely to hold a grudge against any delays because they realise its not the fault of the business. They will later on against those firms which are slow to adapt. At the end of the day organisations have had 2 years to prepare and get their affairs in order to handle any disruption while the dust settles. And I dont see it as being unreasonable to expect them to have disruption scenarios planned out.

Environments constantly change, businesses need to change with them. Some firms wont be able too because they lack the resources, some firms will need to reinvent themselves as it no longer become tenable to offer their existing products and services. Thats the nature of business and new organisations will replace those ones we lose which are suited to trading in the new environment.

Some will also refuse to change. The UK high-street is full of organisations which refuse to change - HMV, Debenhams, Game, M&S, are some. Some that already went bust because of it are BHS, Comet, and Woolworths. With them they either refused to move most of their business online or failed to adapt to changing consumer trends. With most of them its a leadership failure caused by having directors which think they are always right so they dont listen to other views. As a result flexibility and adaptability is non-existent in them.

Brexit will catch some out too. There will be naïve business owners who even right now have set their firms up in such a way that they assume we will remain in the EU. No scenario planning will have occurred. Firms need to plan for remain, Soft leave, Hard leave, and extension of Article 50, so they are covered whatever happens.

After things settle down we will do better than what we have been doing in the EU as policy will more closely match the needs of just our businesses not the ones across the whole of the EU. And the lifting of austerity will prevent any recessions and in my opinion will cause a boom.

Edited by RabidMongoose
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L.A.T.1961
4 hours ago, danydandan said:

Another interesting development is that the US are telling May that the Belfast Agreement must be upheld if she wants a trade agreement with the US. According to our Irish Times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-uk-told-to-uphold-belfast-agreement-if-it-wants-us-trade-deal-1.3785317

 

Not unexpected that pro Irish groups or individuals in the US will try and push UK towards a softer (customs union) brexit.

But more widely the US see the break between EU and UK as a once in a generation chance to pivot UK towards the US regards trade and regulations. Many in the US will be hoping that the UK has maximum room to negotiate freely and make significant changes and allow US more access to UK markets.

There is also the question of if the backstop is legal and it's effects on a future NI/UK relationship. So it may require the backstop to be changed or dropped altogether to uphold the Belfast Agreement. 

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stevewinn

what's the rumblings about the Backstop the EU is insisting upon is in fact illegal under the EU's own rules. surely not!

50 Days to go.

Brexit needs to be delivered on the 29th March at 23:00:00.

No deal and no handing over £39Bn to the EU.

Look at what's happening in the land of unicorns & rainbows.

Brussels Commission downgrades 2019 Eurozone growth from 1.8% (Nov forecast) to 1.3%. Quite a revision in two months.

2019 growth in major economies also downgraded: Germany to 1.1% (from 1.8%), France 1.3% (was 1.6%), Italy only 0.8% (was 1.3%).

Theresa May should return home and on doing so, call a National press conference at 8pm. telling a few home truths about the EU. Then Offer the EU a take it or leave it FTA (as the remainers think its all about trade) and put that notion to bed. the EU doesn't want a deal all they want is the UK to remain under the thumb of the EU.

Just as Europe and especially France never forgive themselves for giving up in WW2 and equally never forgive us for NOT giving up. If we don't leave the EU we'll never forgive ourselves in the future.

Zero Hour is approaching. Post Brexit no plan survives first contact with the enemy and this is where the UK will come into its own. a nimble economy reaching a consensus of one, compared to trying to reach a consensus of 27.

How quick can the EU impose a a border, how quick can the Irish build a border? whose going to police it Ireland have never been able to. will we see the first deployment of the first EU brigades? will Irish troops / police protect the EU caps from attack?

Post Brexit, a "hard Brexit" at least the UK will be a fully independent democracy while the EU trudges on with increased centralised power for non-elected people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Grey Area
9 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

rudderless or did she purposely relinquished control of Brexit to the EU. let me explain... the second the UK or rather May agreed to the terms of separation  (withdrawal agreement) brexit was always going to be a knee jerk reaction to what the EU was going to dictate. and she wasn't alone. if the UK had any power then they would have just told the EU there are no terms of separation just leaving, good bye. the UK has no power and the brexiteers are only making noise for their own personel benefit. you just can't threaten the EU while accepting their terms to leave. doesn't make sense. so i think May's threats are empty. 

May is trying to keep the Conservative party in power by trying to deliver some form of Brexit that everyone identifies with, which is like trying to climb a greased pole.

It is a clear example of how broken party politics is.  The Party comes first.

 

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danydandan
4 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

May is trying to keep the Conservative party in power by trying to deliver some form of Brexit that everyone identifies with, which is like trying to climb a greased pole.

It is a clear example of how broken party politics is.  The Party comes first.

 

That's pretty obvious I think.

I wonder if we are seeing the tail end of democracy? 

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Grey Area
23 minutes ago, danydandan said:

That's pretty obvious I think.

I wonder if we are seeing the tail end of democracy? 

We are seeing system in desperate need of reform, but so deeply embedded in law and certain aspects of society that nothing short of revolution would bring about the change needed.

And given that most other western democracies use similar systems such change would likely be resisted at an international level.

Im absolutely sick of our politicians and their petty games of ‘one-up man ship’ that is displayed from the top and seeps right down to the local levels.

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danydandan
12 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

We are seeing system in desperate need of reform, but so deeply embedded in law and certain aspects of society that nothing short of revolution would bring about the change needed.

And given that most other western democracies use similar systems such change would likely be resisted at an international level.

Im absolutely sick of our politicians and their petty games of ‘one-up man ship’ that is displayed from the top and seeps right down to the local levels.

Maybe we all need to put on a Guy Fawkes mark and force change. 

Our Irish government is a bloody joke. 

Just this week a bill was passed to prevent Banks from selling your mortgage on your house to a vulture fund without your permission. Thankfully it passed, so the banks can no longer do this. However, a number of politicians voted against it including our fecking Taoiseach and a number of his party. 

The whole system is broke. Maybe we go back to our Celtic routes and only allow someone in power for only a year, but a council of elder to run everything. Instead of running the Country like a business, we run it for the people? 

Edited by danydandan
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Grey Area
13 minutes ago, danydandan said:

Maybe we all need to put on a Guy Fawkes mark and force change. 

Our Irish government is a bloody joke. 

Just this week a bill was passed to prevent Banks from selling your mortgage on your house to a vulture fund without your permission. Thankfully it passed, so the banks can no longer do this. However, a number of politicians voted against it including our fecking Taoiseach and a number of his party. 

The whole system is broke. Maybe we go back to our Celtic routes and only allow someone in power for only a year, but a council of elder to run everything. Instead of running the Country like a business, we run it for the people? 

Trial by combat, Id love to see May fight Tusk, that would be hilarious, almost as hilarious as seeing Boris fight Junker, be like monkey vs drunken master.

But seriously I think political parties should be outlawed and cabinet positions should be individually voted in based on policy and acumen.

The problem I have, with party rivalry aside is that my views don’t fit a specific party, I favour some socialist aspects while other more conservative views, particularly when it comes to defence.

I made the decision to actively abstain at the last general election.  It was when I got to work the day after the election and I spoke to my boss.  She is heavily involved in the unions and the Labour Party.  I have a lot of respect for her, she works hard for both the organisation and the staff.  But on that day, Conservatives had won the majority, but Labour had done better than expected (I’m sure you remember) and so Labour had claimed it as a victory.  

I commented to my boss, ‘well that was a bit of **** storm wasn’t it’.  To which my boss replied. ‘No it was brilliant, we really stuck two fingers up at May!’

That sealed it for me.  Politics is no longer about the country and the people who live and die within it, it’s about beating the opposition, however you can.

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Ozymandias

First past the post is too divisive and alienating. Better to have proportional representation, it is more inclusive and facilitates dialogue and consensus by promoting coalition government. Political faction fighting is detrimental to democracy.

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danydandan
15 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

I commented to my boss, ‘well that was a bit of **** storm wasn’t it’.  To which my boss replied. ‘No it was brilliant, we really stuck two fingers up at May!’

That sealed it for me.  Politics is no longer about the country and the people who live and die within it, it’s about beating the opposition, however you can.

 

5 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

First past the post is too divisive and alienating. Better to have proportional representation, it is more inclusive and facilitates dialogue and consensus by promoting coalition government. Political faction fighting is detrimental to democracy.

Makes me wonder if Cyrus the Great had the right idea. 

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Captain Risky
4 hours ago, Grey Area said:

May is trying to keep the Conservative party in power by trying to deliver some form of Brexit that everyone identifies with, which is like trying to climb a greased pole.

It is a clear example of how broken party politics is.  The Party comes first.

 

Yeah you’re right Brexit is about pleasing everyone but a certain realism needs to enter the fray at some point. I understand everyone is pushing May for the best possible deal but expectations need to be sensible. Example: the EU isn’t going to push Ireland and it’s backstop concerns off a cliff to please an ungrateful outgoing member. Just won’t happen. The EU will not change its trade and movement rules to facilitate Brexit. The room to move is minimal. Kudos to May for trying everything but if the roles had been reversed I’m sure the UK would have no hesitation telling the French or Germans to go whistle for a better deal. 

Edited by Captain Risky

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Aaron2016

What if Sinn Fein become the lead party in Northern Ireland and call for a referendum on Irish unity and reintegration into the European Union?  If the UK leaves will the EU keep the door open just in case they want to rejoin?  If Northern Ireland goes, then Scotland would surely follow, and England and Wales might find their future unsustainable, so in order to keep the United Kingdom together it might be better to just call quits on the whole idea of Brexit.  Going through with it is certainly a big gamble.  I think many MPs are asking themselves "why take the risk?  If one of us were in parliament would we take that risk, especially if our constituency voted to remain.

 

Edited by Aaron2016
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Grey Area
11 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Yeah you’re right Brexit is about pleasing everyone but a certain realism needs to enter the fray at some point. I understand everyone is pushing May for the best possible deal but expectations need to be sensible. Example: the EU isn’t going to push Ireland and it’s backstop concerns off a cliff to please an ungrateful outgoing member. Just won’t happen. The EU will not change its trade and movement rules to facilitate Brexit. The room to move is minimal. Kudos to May for trying everything but if the roles had been reversed I’m sure the UK would have no hesitation telling the French or Germans to go whistle for a better deal. 

No one has come out of this without poo on their faces.  The Commission have actively made things as difficult as possible for the U.K. exploiting weaknesses in the U.K. leadership as well as shamelessly using things like the good Friday agreement as bargaining chips, couple that with the attitude of Tusk highlighted by his ridiculous comments, the EU should be ashamed of their role in Brexit.

And clearly the issue has widened the division between parties, but also created rifts within parties.  What should have happened is, upon receiving the outcome of the referendum formal views should have been made and then everyone should worked together to make Brexit as successful as possible.

Instead, what ensued was an almighty tug of war no one was winning.  Madness.

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spud the mackem
16 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

,she is in th shadow cabinet What if Sinn Fein become the lead party in Northern Ireland and call for a referendum on Irish unity and reintegration into the European Union?  If the UK leaves will the EU keep the door open just in case they want to rejoin?  If Northern Ireland goes, then Scotland would surely follow, and England and Wales might find their future unsustainable, so in order to keep the United Kingdom together it might be better to just call quits on the whole idea of Brexit.  Going through with it is certainly a big gamble.  I think many MPs are asking themselves "why take the risk?  If one of us were in parliament would we take that risk, especially if our constituency voted to remain.

 

In one labour constituancy the M.P. decided to vote remain while it was proven  that 71% of her ward voted to leave, so she deliberately went against her voters wishes ,and democracy .There are going to be a lot of changes in the way people vote on both sides when they realise what their M.P.'s have done against the peoples wishes. And we are Not going to quit leaving at this late stage so get used to the idea of being ruled by the English and not the Euro's.  

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spud the mackem
20 hours ago, danydandan said:

Maybe we all need to put on a Guy Fawkes mark and force change. 

Our Irish government is a bloody joke. 

Just this week a bill was passed to prevent Banks from selling your mortgage on your house to a vulture fund without your permission. Thankfully it passed, so the banks can no longer do this. However, a number of politicians voted against it including our fecking Taoiseach and a number of his party. 

The whole system is broke. Maybe we go back to our Celtic routes and only allow someone in power for only a year, but a council of elder to run everything. Instead of running the Country like a business, we run it for the people? 

N.I. has 2 choices , stay with Britain or stay with the E.U. if they decide to stay with the E.U. they will have 1/27 th say in their future . As far as saying that your gov't is a joke , well so is ours , but I still don't want to be ruled by E.U. semi Nazis who are worse than both our gov'ts.

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stevewinn

49 days to go, As a free independent nation from the EU, we shall proceed to act in our best interests. What the EU does is a matter for them. If they want our business, they can attempt to satisfy our needs by competing for it against the best in the world. We choose what we buy & reject what does not meet our preferences. Life is made immediately easier as we regain control.

As we do regain control matters then turn to our own domestic agenda. its clear that the vast majority in this current parliament are not the calibre required or to be entrusted to run a 2.5trillion pound economy. their is not a statesman amongst them - that's why they are struck by fear, these are the legacy of 47 years of EU membership, your Neal Kinnocks of this world who were anti-EU and led their party with that stance only to be offered thirty pieces of silver by the EU they now proclaim a unquestionable devotion to that same EU - but rest assured there are good and capable people ready to step into the breach.

Brexit is about change in our domestic policy makers, In Britain only good effective political leadership can only be found in the History books. Brexit is the start to remedy that fact. 23:00:00. 29th March 2019 will be the recorded time and date. Dreadnought. "fear nothing"

 

 

 

 

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stevewinn

 

 

 

 

 

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