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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco
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31 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I'm sorry for your condition. 

Go in peace and sin against common sense no more. 

HELLO.....care to answer my last post.

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No? Ok, well thanks for your 'common sense' input.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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38 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

HELLO.....care to answer my last post.

What's the rush? I'm doing this on by-the-way basis, there's no post quota I have to follow.

So, here's the answer for you:  

Firstly, if you're going to be rude to me first, I certainly will oblige and be rude to you. 

Secondly, your Forage is Russian asset, just like Le Petain. You've got proof all over the news for quite some time now, unless you wish to use the (un)American Fake News patent (stolen from Nazis).  

 

Advocate your country's choice in sane manner and I will respect both you and said choice, even if I think it's wrong.

You can't cry your way out of EU, you have to negotiate it. I can only assume you were aware of it when you voted for it.    

 

Edited by Helen of Annoy
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22 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

What's the rush? I'm doing this on by-the-way basis, there's no post quota I have to follow.

So, here's the answer for you:  

Firstly, if you're going to be rude to me first, I certainly will oblige and be rude to you. 

Secondly, your Forage is Russian asset, just like Le Petain. You've got proof all over the news for quite some time now, unless you wish to use the (un)American Fake News patent (stolen from Nazis).  

 

Advocate your country's choice in sane manner and I will respect both you and said choice, even if I think it's wrong.

You can't cry your way out of EU, you have to negotiate it. I can only assume you were aware of it when you voted for it.    

 

I wasn't rude to you. I was stating fact, I didn't understand what you wrote.

Like Idon't understand what 'your Forage is Russian asset, just like La Petain'

or

'You can't cry your way out of E.U.'

Ok I'll try again. Can you please explain what you mean by :-

"Advocate your country's choice in sane manner"

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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:D

Such a little thread, such a perfect allegory for what's currently going on with that big Brexit. 

 

 

P.S. Will someone with too much time on their hands explain to itsnotoutthere what I just said? 

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26 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

:D

Such a little thread, such a perfect allegory for what's currently going on with that big Brexit. 

 

 

P.S. Will someone with too much time on their hands explain to itsnotoutthere what I just said? 

Yes...please someone.

You get it Flombie, can you translate for me?

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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16 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

:D

Such a little thread, such a perfect allegory for what's currently going on with that big Brexit. 

 

 

P.S. Will someone with too much time on their hands explain to itsnotoutthere what I just said? 

Helen... I started this thread to discuss the opening gambits of the EU / UK negotiations to see what other ideas are out there concerning the initial stances and what are driving them. A little thread it may be but that is due to the fact that had I included it in the "Brexit" thread then it would have been subsumed by fighting the referendum all over again.

To answer another point you raised: I do not want to see the EU27 fail for simple commercial trading reasons with the UK. Fail it will however because the Eurozone will drag it down due to the fact that Germany exerts all of the power over interest rates which benefits Germany enormously whilst at the same time higher interest rates would enormously help the failing states of Greece, Spain, and even Ireland.

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24 minutes ago, keithisco said:

Helen... I started this thread to discuss the opening gambits of the EU / UK negotiations to see what other ideas are out there concerning the initial stances and what are driving them. A little thread it may be but that is due to the fact that had I included it in the "Brexit" thread then it would have been subsumed by fighting the referendum all over again.

To answer another point you raised: I do not want to see the EU27 fail for simple commercial trading reasons with the UK. Fail it will however because the Eurozone will drag it down due to the fact that Germany exerts all of the power over interest rates which benefits Germany enormously whilst at the same time higher interest rates would enormously help the failing states of Greece, Spain, and even Ireland.

With all due respect, I believe the failing states benefit enormously from Germany, in the first place.

It would be wiser to revive the failed economies, yes, but how realistic is it at the moment? There are so many literally mobster structures to dismantle first - this is the real reason why most of these economies failed, in not just my opinion.

I know what destroyed my country. It wasn't interest rates, and there's no interest rate that would benefit us...  we need - oh, look, Russians again - removed from positions from which they're calmly sucking my country dry. Not to digress too far. You won't believe it, but I still might lose my (it seems empty) head for babbling too much.   

 

Anyway, I appreciate you made separate thread and it was only little compared to the tectonic changes ahead all of us.

I sincerely hope (no sarcasm!) Brexit will turn out well for everyone. 

Edited by Helen of Annoy
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So...

Donald Tusk has released the draft proposals for the upcoming negotiations between the EU and the UK. In it he has firmly rejected any trade talks until the Divorce Bill is settled. In my opinion (only) I see this as a rather foolhardy stance on behalf of the Council because such a move will severely restrict time for trade negotiations to be completed and will increase the likelihood of the UK to withdraw from discussions and to invoke WTO (World Trade Organisation) trading rules. This would not be a preferred option in my view and certainly not for the 4 million jobs in the EU that are dependent on trade with the UK.

Another point to note (Copied below - with the linked source to the original document) is the clause that Gibraltar will NOT be included without the express approval of Spain - so much for "The Union will act as one". Territories are always included in negotiations unless specifically excluded by both parties. I see this as an overt attempt to scupper any deal before it even gets to the table.

Quote

After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom

. Source: Draft EU Council proposals

Edited by keithisco
Poor grammar
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The EU has just ruled that Spain gets a Veto to block them accepting a UK trading agreement if we try to use Gibraltar as a back door in. I suspect the same will shortly get granted to Ireland.

It stops us turning Gibraltar (and soon North Ireland) into trade entities inside the EU while the rest of Britain and its territories get to remain outside. And I think they will go further t o prevent us doing the same to London City (the district with the banks in which is legally a separate country in England although we tend to see it as a part of).

Edited by RabidMongoose
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2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

The EU has just ruled that Spain gets a Veto to block them accepting a UK trading agreement if we try to use Gibraltar as a back door in. I suspect the same will shortly get granted to Ireland.

It stops us turning Gibraltar (and soon North Ireland) into trade entities inside the EU while the rest of Britain and its territories get to remain outside. And I think they will go further t o prevent us doing the same to London City (the district with the banks in which is legally a separate country in England although we tend to see it as a part of).

The EU wouldn't make good poker players.  It appears they have revealed their hand too early.  

I doubt the UK will part with the 50 billion anytime soon with these tactics ( I think we will when a suitable deal is struck) .  The EU need the 50 billion soon as a political scalp and show of force.

I personally can see the talks breaking down quickly and maybe the deal being rushed through at the last minute when the two years is almost up.

Edited by skookum
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1 hour ago, skookum said:

The EU wouldn't make good poker players.  It appears they have revealed their hand too early.  

I doubt the UK will part with the 50 billion anytime soon with these tactics ( I think we will when a suitable deal is struck) .  The EU need the 50 billion soon as a political scalp and show of force.

I personally can see the talks breaking down quickly and maybe the deal being rushed through at the last minute when the two years is almost up.

Its monthly payments not a yearly sum so we default next month if we arent going to be paying anything.

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On 3/30/2017 at 6:51 PM, Helen of Annoy said:

What's the rush? I'm doing this on by-the-way basis, there's no post quota I have to follow.

So, here's the answer for you:  

Firstly, if you're going to be rude to me first, I certainly will oblige and be rude to you. 

Secondly, your Forage is Russian asset, just like Le Petain. You've got proof all over the news for quite some time now, unless you wish to use the (un)American Fake News patent (stolen from Nazis).  

 

Advocate your country's choice in sane manner and I will respect both you and said choice, even if I think it's wrong.

You can't cry your way out of EU, you have to negotiate it. I can only assume you were aware of it when you voted for it.    

 

Er, no, sorry, lost me there I'm afraid. 

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On 3/30/2017 at 5:46 PM, itsnotoutthere said:

every figure obsessed with destruction of E.U. is somehow financially tied to Moscow"

Everything is a Russkie plot. Brexit is a plot to destroy the EU and lay the way open for the T-90s to be parading down the Unter den Linden and the Champs-Élysées before you could say Москва-Главная-Пассажирская.

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9 hours ago, keithisco said:

So...

Donald Tusk has released the draft proposals for the upcoming negotiations between the EU and the UK. In it he has firmly rejected any trade talks until the Divorce Bill is settled. In my opinion (only) I see this as a rather foolhardy stance on behalf of the Council because such a move will severely restrict time for trade negotiations to be completed and will increase the likelihood of the UK to withdraw from discussions and to invoke WTO (World Trade Organisation) trading rules. This would not be a preferred option in my view and certainly not for the 4 million jobs in the EU that are dependent on trade with the UK.

Another point to note (Copied below - with the linked source to the original document) is the clause that Gibraltar will NOT be included without the express approval of Spain - so much for "The Union will act as one". Territories are always included in negotiations unless specifically excluded by both parties. I see this as an overt attempt to scupper any deal before it even gets to the table.

. Source: Draft EU Council proposals

Excellent decision to start a new thread Keith, moving on from the Brexit one which ran its course some time ago.

The British Media is terrible in reporting events, who needs enemies eh, you'd think by their reporting the EU is in a position to call the shots. - On the point of the EU demanding €50 to €60 Billion up front is very telling, they'd rather talk money than secure guarantees of EU citizens legal status in the UK and vice-versa for UK citizens.

What i encourage everyone to do, is this, every single position that's put to the UK Government by the EU turn it on its head and ask it of the EU, for instance the EU says the UK will have to pay €50 to €60 Billion. - Well how much will the EU have to pay the UK, after all its a two way street, the EU as commitments to all members and as such we are still a member that includes commitments to the UK. if we take the UK's share of EU assets, in property, rebates and budget receipts. that figure stands at €8.1Billion. but if we re-evaluate that figure to todays market value that figure stands at around €17.7Billion, If we also factor in our 16% share in the European Investment Bank €10.2 Billion that figure quickly rises to €27.9Billion, that's €27.9Billion the EU owes us, people will say that's far short of the €50-€60 Billion the EU is demanding from us, and they'd be right, but what we have to remember the EU's demand as no basis in law  independent of the treaties.

- The House of Lords EU Financial affairs committee report is telling. - it states

"A demand of €60 billion is being currently attributed to the EU Commission, but we find that it is possible to arrive a wide range of figures for any possible EU claim. However, it should be noted that the strictly legal position of the UK on this issue appears to be strong. Article 50 also provides for a 'guillotine' after two years if a withdrawal agreement is not reached. Although there are competing interpretations, legal evidence suggests that if agreement is not reached, all EU law will cease to apply, and the UK would not have an obligation to make any financial contribution at all"

https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12502.htm

in essence, The EU is negotiating with the worlds Fifth largest economy, its single biggest trade market and a member which currently contributes 12% of the EU's budget. the UK in 2017 will be the second largest Net contributor in absolute terms.

of the 27 remaining members just 11 are net contributors and the remaining 16 net recipients, either the 11 contribute more money to fill the black hole or the 16 accept cuts. but its more serious when you consider only 4 are "big net contributors"

 

1 hour ago, skookum said:

The EU wouldn't make good poker players.  It appears they have revealed their hand too early.  

I doubt the UK will part with the 50 billion anytime soon with these tactics ( I think we will when a suitable deal is struck) .  The EU need the 50 billion soon as a political scalp and show of force.

I personally can see the talks breaking down quickly and maybe the deal being rushed through at the last minute when the two years is almost up.

Im all for Brexit without a deal. We'll have had two years nine months to prepare. sure it will hurt us, but we'd be safe in the knowledge it will hurt the EU worse. the Euro cannot survive another financial crisis, faced with that prospect sensible heads on the continent will prevail, and a deal will be done - after all they have a History of capitulation. 

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1 hour ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Er, no, sorry, lost me there I'm afraid. 

Oh, you lost much more than just me.  

No wonder you're not ready to admit it.

 

(By the way, there's this Russian creeping attempt to take over my own ****en country that became public few hours ago. I know it's not important for you, I'm telling you this just to illustrate how horribly wrong you are.) 

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It has previously been suggested that the UK might have to pay around £50bn to the EU after Article 50 was triggered, to plug the deficit in its budget the departure will cause. 

The document was drawn up by Martin Howe QC, a founding member of  Lawyers for Britain, a group of lawyers who campaigned for Britain to leave the EU in last year’s referendum.

...proceeding on...

Jolyon Maugham QC, a barrister who launched a legal challenge last year arguing that Article 50 should be revocable once it is activated, so that the UK would not be forced to accept any Brexit deal, told The Independent he questioned the credibility of Mr Howe’s advice.

Martin Howe is an odd choice for the Government to be taking advice from, given that he doesn’t specialise in any relevant field. 

“To seek out proper advice, you shouldn’t simply go to a lawyer who tells you what you want to hear. 

“It’s not clear that the Government are going to act on this advice, but if it did, it would be a fantastically stupid thing to do.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-european-union-brexit-martin-howe-david-davis-boris-johnson-article-50-a7625261.html

Edited by Captain Risky
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Of course Martin Howe is the same man that poked fun at the Miller case saying its without merit and will never come up. Look at what happened there. 

I seriously doubt that the EU would be gambling their negotiating strategy away by making financial settlement a prerequisite a financial negative for their position. If i had to make a bet at this stage as to who is closer to the truth as to who owes who money i would say that Britain will pay up and handsomely.

But assuming for a moment that what Martin Howe says is true is no real celebration in any event, since Britain will be losing an asset to pay an outstanding bill with no return. 

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The E.U. are annoyed that we have finally started the leaving process , they must realise that we aren't bluffing like they are,when it comes down to trade deals, the German car industry must be really worried and so will Spain, Italy, and France and Portugal for their wine trade and other fruit exports to us, so I reckon that Herr Juncker and the Angel(a) of Death will have some serious problems to sort out with their own internal trade before they consider what the U.K. is doing, As for the 50/60 Bn that is an angry reaction and bluff because as Steve Winn said earlier that can be halved immediately by what they owe us, I can't see the big donators to the poorer countries paying out more so the poorer countries will have to see cuts in donations, Other Countries like Sweden Holland Denmark are waiting to see which way the wind blows with us before deciding to stay or drop out as well.and that maybe will seal the fate of the E.U. and Germany's plan to dominate Europe as they tried twice before, especially when the ordinary German people are getting very restless with their immigrant crisis.  Roll on the next round of negotiations

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5 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

The E.U. are annoyed that we have finally started the leaving process , they must realise that we aren't bluffing like they are,when it comes down to trade deals, the German car industry must be really worried and so will Spain, Italy, and France and Portugal for their wine trade and other fruit exports to us, so I reckon that Herr Juncker and the Angel(a) of Death will have some serious problems to sort out with their own internal trade before they consider what the U.K. is doing, As for the 50/60 Bn that is an angry reaction and bluff because as Steve Winn said earlier that can be halved immediately by what they owe us, I can't see the big donators to the poorer countries paying out more so the poorer countries will have to see cuts in donations, Other Countries like Sweden Holland Denmark are waiting to see which way the wind blows with us before deciding to stay or drop out as well.and that maybe will seal the fate of the E.U. and Germany's plan to dominate Europe as they tried twice before, especially when the ordinary German people are getting very restless with their immigrant crisis.  Roll on the next round of negotiations

I haven't read anywhere that the EU is annoyed. Sadness expressed by Donald Tusk was reserved and diplomatic. The EU had multiple chances to placate the Euro-sceptic's in the UK and didn't. Britain has used the EU to great effect to grow its economy and influence in the EU and simply can't go the the extra mile to assimilate. It has withdrawn and see's a better future. Now whether brexit will be a success and the start of a new golden age of British economic and political might or equal to bungee jumping off a cliff with no rope is yet to be seen. So the celebrations will have to wait. An interesting statistic is that even though the EU will lose one of its biggest donors, it will still have to pay the same to the less wealthy. This will be a big problem for the EU in years to come and possibly herald a new wave of reform and austerity for those less developed. Of course the payoff for those stuck with the brexit short fall will also have the extra market share that the departing UK will unwilling have to relinquish.   

  

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It is of course, important for the UK not to lose its nerve during these EU posturing's...The EU really does have a weak hand in these negotiations because they are well aware that Canada has had its negotiators consulting and supporting the UK for the last few months. Who better to know how the EU plays its little games. The other aspect to remember is that the UK has also had its own negotiators in place working within the EU teams for every FTA that has been struck.

Who do the "5 Presidents" summon when discussing the EU position? Germany and France - with Spain tagging on as "Tail-End Charlies". By-passing the other EU24 nations does not go down too well in these states and Poland in particular will have something to say about this soon enough (I think).

I strongly suspect however that the EU will deliberately keep the UK in the EU as long as possible - what with the suggested transitional proposals with the UK still subject to the European courts (as mentioned in todays draft proposals) - simply to extract more money from us to support their bloated financial schemes. To this I would say "lets just leave on WTO terms" and leave as soon as possible. Then, when the penny drops in Brussels let them come to us and ask nicely for a trade deal to ensure that the 4 million EU27 jobs reliant on the UK market are not compromised. Also make it loud and clear that the UK is already negotiating FTA's with 3rd countries in preparation for signing as soon as we have left. Another point to note is that today the USA has repeated that it is going to stand by us if the negotiations fail and is ready to fast-track an FTA which also feeds our exports into NAFTA.

We are not behoven to 2 years - at any point in time we can repeal the 1972 Treaty of Accession - which has the immediate effect of taking us out of the EU. 

 

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1 minute ago, keithisco said:

It is of course, important for the UK not to lose its nerve during these EU posturing's...The EU really does have a weak hand in these negotiations because they are well aware that Canada has had its negotiators consulting and supporting the UK for the last few months. Who better to know how the EU plays its little games. The other aspect to remember is that the UK has also had its own negotiators in place working within the EU teams for every FTA that has been struck.

Who do the "5 Presidents" summon when discussing the EU position? Germany and France - with Spain tagging on as "Tail-End Charlies". By-passing the other EU24 nations does not go down too well in these states and Poland in particular will have something to say about this soon enough (I think).

I strongly suspect however that the EU will deliberately keep the UK in the EU as long as possible - what with the suggested transitional proposals with the UK still subject to the European courts (as mentioned in todays draft proposals) - simply to extract more money from us to support their bloated financial schemes. To this I would say "lets just leave on WTO terms" and leave as soon as possible. Then, when the penny drops in Brussels let them come to us and ask nicely for a trade deal to ensure that the 4 million EU27 jobs reliant on the UK market are not compromised. Also make it loud and clear that the UK is already negotiating FTA's with 3rd countries in preparation for signing as soon as we have left. Another point to note is that today the USA has repeated that it is going to stand by us if the negotiations fail and is ready to fast-track an FTA which also feeds our exports into NAFTA.

We are not behoven to 2 years - at any point in time we can repeal the 1972 Treaty of Accession - which has the immediate effect of taking us out of the EU. 

 

It might well be better for us to leave immediately then let them approach us to negotiate.

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Simply put, negotiate behind the EU's back.Article 50 has been invoked.

All these conditions from the EU just tell me that their hand is weaker than they would like people to know.Let's return all the Hostility and rhetoric oozing out of Brussels.

As much as it pains me to say this, but a victory for  Le Pen would be a means to an end as far as I'm concerned.

Edited by A rather obscure Bassoon
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8 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

I haven't read anywhere that the EU is annoyed.

I suppose it depends what you mean by the EU. Donald Trusk may be a more suave politician than to say it publicly, but he and his colleague M. Juncker have said many times that they want to make it as difficult as possible for the UK to leave pour décourager les autres*. Just like M. Hollande and Frau Merkel have said as well haven't they. If that doesn't sound like the product of bitterness I don't know what it is. I suppose it could just be because they know that if other countries or parts of countries (like Catalonia or the Basque region) are encouraged to do it themselves, then it could lead to not only the breakup of their empire but their own countries, but either way what it is essentially is trying to discourage them by coercion rather than by emphasising all the great benefits of staying in the European Empire, isn't it, which doesn't suggest very much confidence in the Empire at the end of the day really. :unsure: 

* French 

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