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keithisco

Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

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stevewinn

33 days till Brexit.

(or will it be 33 days till a betrayal to be unleashed upon the British people)

interesting times either way.

 

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stevewinn

The trouble is and what we need to remember is the govt has never had any intention of leaving. May has been thoroughly dishonest to force our country to remain in the EU by another treaty with a different name with key elements under different badges. Hammond always claimed there would only be modest changes.

It was clear in December 2017 she was using the Irish backstop as a ploy. Sammi Wilson makes that clear this week when speaking about ROI legislation being brought in for no deal. He is spot on.

July 2018 saw her underhand dishonest behaviour at a Chequers. Her behaviour alone should have seen her ousted. Her servitude plan in November withdrawn for legal changes brought back without any changes and lost historic vote.

May’s government found in contempt when trying to hide legal opinion about the backstop that would Lock UK in the EU forever! This was her plan that she was trying to get through.

Single market and customs union had name changes but still apply. May was going to give away N.Ireland when she claimed no PM would ever do it! Even though May lost the vote.

May always slapped down ministers for promoting leaving the EU which was govt policy, such as evidenced by steve baker MP by but never uttered a word for inappropriate remain claims and comments,against govts policy. Including Hammond calling seventeen and half million people extremist. Not a coincidence after nearly three years.

Why has Rudd, Greg Clarke and Gauke not been sacked? All have appalling records. Rudd the worst. She only has a majority of a few hundred. Their associations need to oust them and other fanatic EU remainers who will not accept representative democracy.

No right minded person would delay leaving or take no deal off the table because there would be no incentive for the EU to make a deal. It would show categorically there is not a will to leave the EU.

As the piece i read online today in the Sunday Telegraph:

“Because if we say we will never, ever leave without a deal, the EU would know, for certain, that they can stop Brexit in its tracks simply by refusing to agree a deal with us. Or, if they’re feeling subtle, by offering a bad deal they know Parliament will turn down. Either way, they’d know we’d blink. Faced with those options, we couldn’t take either of them. We would have no choice. We’d have to go cap in hand and beg the EU to delay the day we leave.”

Which is, of course, precisely what a majority of MPs really want, they want to give the EU the power to hold us prisoner forever.

this is what Brexit as turned into. a fight for Democracy and fight the people will.

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L.A.T.1961
21 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

 

Which is, of course, precisely what a majority of MPs really want, they want to give the EU the power to hold us prisoner forever.

this is what Brexit as turned into. a fight for Democracy and fight the people will.

This has been my opinion for a while, May engineered a trap for the UK but it was unfortunately discovered.

If we sign an unmodified brexit deal then the inevitable outcome will be a very close final arrangement, so close it will be easy for Brussels to suggest special considerations can be made for UK, and usual rules waived, to become a fast- tracked EU member again.  ;) this would be the ideal long game for May and like minded 'remainers'. 

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stevewinn

 

Quote

 

Why the Withdrawal Agreement is bad for the UK

by John Redwood MP.

I have been asked to spell out more details on the features of the WA other than the Irish backstop which make it a bad deal.

The first point is it contradicts the Conservative Manifesto and 2017 government policy of negotiating the Withdrawal issues and the future partnership together. You must stick to this to get leverage from concessions made on Withdrawal to benefits in the future partnership. Nothing should be agreed until everything is agreed. It is why we have got a bad Withdrawal Agreement, and are being set up to get a bad future partnership as well.

The second is the provision to pay them very large sums of money, stretching for many years into the future. No sensible person would sign an agreement which allows one side to send bill after bill for years after we have left, claiming we owe them money under many general heads set out in the Withdrawal Agreement. The Treasury estimate of £39bn is likely to be far too low. Some of the future liabilities stretch forward a hundred years, relating to payments to people not yet born who might come here before the end of the transition period. Paying to belong until 2020 opens up more future commitments under the 2019-20 budget, with liabilities until 2028. The settlement on the European Investment Bank is mean to the UK. Every conceivable future liability for the EU is recorded with as much liability as possible attaching to the UK under various clauses.

The third is the institutional architecture for the Agreement. Until we do leave the UK faces the full panoply of existing and additional EU law enforced by the EU’s own court. The UK in transition will have no veto over big new advances in EU controls, and no ability to form qualified minority blocking groups to stop an unfavourable law passing under qualified majority provisions. The EU would be at liberty to legislate in ways that harmed our economic interests and helped theirs and we would have to comply. We would even not be able to prevent the imposition of new taxes on us.

Disputes over the money or over the laws fall to be resolved by a joint committee. In the event of there being no resolution, an independent Arbitration panel decides the matter. However, if at issue is the interpretation of EU law – which is likely in most cases – that is settled by the European Court of Justice who instruct the Arbitration Panel what to say! Who ever thought the UK should accept such a one sided arrangement?

The fourth is the State Aids provisions and applicability of Competition law. This will give the EU the right to authorise state aids to attract business away from the UK, with the right to block us doing the same back.

The fifth is the continuing influence the EU will have over our welfare and benefits system.

There are many other features of this Agreement which are one sided, as it is a thorough piece of work by the EU determined to take as much of our money as possible for as long as possible, and keen to keep as much legal control over us as possible.

The Agreement does not even live up to its name and billing. It is meant to just be about the past and so called withdrawal costs and issues, yet a big chunk of it including the Irish backstop, protected trade names and other issues is about the future trading arrangements and partnership. The UK negotiators should have pointed this out and insisted on dealing with all the future issues at the same time, as the government promised to do in 2016-17.


 

 

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godnodog

Just go for a no deal exit, I am tired of this.

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stevewinn
8 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Just go for a no deal exit, I am tired of this.

imagine how we feel. We where given the choice to Leave the EU and we by a majority voted to leave the EU. (the message as been clear just get on with it and leave) 

all this messing about is the political class who've never agreed with the result.

These last 2 years 9 months as all been about a catch 22, how do the politicians keep the illusion of democracy alive. they accepted the result on one hand but never agreed with it on the other. now we are entering the final countdown and they want to string it out further till possible 2021. a whole five years after the vote. absolute disgrace. its been one massive kick the can down the road exercise until the people changed their minds. hence project fear & project fear 2.0, 3.0 etc... none of its worked so now we reach the crux of the matter, do the politicians uphold democracy or circumvent it in a shameless bare face demonstrating of self superiority over the people who elected them.

There will be hell to pay and i fear those in the Westminster bubble just cant sense or see it coming, being heckled in the street will be the last of their worries)

 

 

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Captain Risky

Labour prepared to back new Brexit referendum

The European Union has opened the door to Britain postponing its exit from the bloc beyond the March 29 deadline, as the Labour Party said it could eventually support a second referendum.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/british-pm-theresa-may-rejects-eus-idea-of-delaying-brexit/news-story/b6e99733419b3f956900b2c7fe14f6d1

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stevewinn

Of course it has. This is how it works in the EU. Vote against vote again. Who never seen that coming.

Somewhat desperate the eu by its actions, eu rules article 50 can be revoked even though its not covered in the treaty. And now open door to second vote. Its almost as if they know. If the British leave its the end for the eu.

31 days till brexit. Squeaky bum time for the eu. & remainers.

 

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Emma_Acid
On 24/02/2019 at 8:24 PM, stevewinn said:

33 days till Brexit.

(or will it be 33 days till a betrayal to be unleashed upon the British people)

interesting times either way.

 

In your opinion. Don't speak for all British people though. According to this one, the betrayal's already happened.

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Emma_Acid
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Squeaky bum time for the eu. & remainers.

If it's going to be as rosy as you guys say it is, why should remainers be worried? You make it out like there's going to be some almighty reckoning.

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RAyMO
18 hours ago, stevewinn said:

by John Redwood MP.

well all the signs are that no deal will be off the table very very soon. Mays deal is the best you can get and if the ERG play hardball you may even need a referendum for that. .

But at least Redwood is being honest about what he originally thought of the WA. If thats what the UK gets  - its not what Bexiteers like him wanted - (despite others conveniently changing tune and claiming it was only about the backstop)

Squeaky bum time for the hard / wto / no deal brexiteers more like.

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stevewinn
1 hour ago, Emma_Acid said:

In your opinion. Don't speak for all British people though. According to this one, the betrayal's already happened.

How can you be betrayed. There was a vote and your opinion was in the minority.

Whenever a party wins an election they dont then pander to the losing minority.

Why should the referendum be any different.

The country has spoken in the single biggest vote on a single issue. Who'd have thought you'd argue against democracy.

 

 

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RabidMongoose

May has just betrayed us.

If no deal is agreed by the end of March, if Parliament then rejects no deal, we will be extending article 50. She claims the maximum would be a one off 3 month extension.

Thats the ERP picked off. Labour will now call a confidence motion and we are heading for a General Election. Yet more instability for the pound coming.

Edited by RabidMongoose
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RoofGardener
13 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

May has just betrayed us.

If no deal is agreed by the end of March, if Parliament then rejects no deal, we will be extending article 50. She claims the maximum would be a one off 3 month extension.

Thats the ERP picked off. Labour will now call a confidence motion and we are heading for a General Election. Yet more instability for the pound coming.

Umm.... parliament has no power to "reject no deal". They can accept the Withdrawal Agreement when they next vote on it. Or they can reject it. That is all - under current rules - that they can do. 

If they reject it (again), then we automatically go into a no-deal or "true" brexit on the 29th. March.

The only way that could change is if Theresa May volunteers to ask the EU for a delay. But would she do that ? If she does, then she is sticking her head out. But I must re-iterate; it is down to Theresa May, and NOT parliament.

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RabidMongoose
14 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Umm.... parliament has no power to "reject no deal". They can accept the Withdrawal Agreement when they next vote on it. Or they can reject it. That is all - under current rules - that they can do. 

If they reject it (again), then we automatically go into a no-deal or "true" brexit on the 29th. March.

The only way that could change is if Theresa May volunteers to ask the EU for a delay. But would she do that ? If she does, then she is sticking her head out. But I must re-iterate; it is down to Theresa May, and NOT parliament.

Nope, about an hour back in Parliament May said MPs will get to vote on the No Deal too at the end of March of the proposed deal is reject. If they vote that down too it will be an extension of article 50.

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RoofGardener
1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

Nope, about an hour back in Parliament May said MPs will get to vote on the No Deal too at the end of March of the proposed deal is reject. If they vote that down too it will be an extension of article 50.

May has actually stated that she will seek an extension ? Really ? 

Oh b*****... I've just read it. Yes she has :( 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/26/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-amid-reports-she-is-about-to-announce-u-turn-on-giving-mps-potential-vote-to-extend-article-50-politics-live?page=with:block-5c75340fe4b0405a56b4760c#block-5c75340fe4b0405a56b4760c

Well, that's it then. Brexit will be foiled by an endless and eternal series of "temporary delays". 

I'm off to collect petrol and milk bottles :( 

Edited by RoofGardener
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RabidMongoose
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

May has actually stated that she will seek an extension ? Really ? 

Oh b*****... I've just read it. Yes she has :( 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/26/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-amid-reports-she-is-about-to-announce-u-turn-on-giving-mps-potential-vote-to-extend-article-50-politics-live?page=with:block-5c75340fe4b0405a56b4760c#block-5c75340fe4b0405a56b4760c

Well, that's it then. Brexit will be foiled by an endless and eternal series of "temporary delays". 

I'm off to collect petrol and milk bottles :( 

Right now we are in the calm before the storm.

I predict it will kick off as the date looms.

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spud the mackem

May speak with forked tongue , Corbyn also speak with forked tongue , Now that the crunch is coming they are both trying to hang on to power and to 'Ell with what the British public want , At the start of this fiasco May was a Remainer , Corbyn was a Leaver and both have changed their minds several times , May is now talking about an extension to the leave date , Corbyn now wants another referendum, WE CAN NEVER TRUST EITHER ,EVER AGAIN. The British public voted to Leave , whether a deal is struck or a no deal happens ,but parliament doesn't want a no deal so we can't trust that shower either . Lets get them out A.S.A.P.  

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RoofGardener
31 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

May speak with forked tongue , Corbyn also speak with forked tongue , Now that the crunch is coming they are both trying to hang on to power and to 'Ell with what the British public want , At the start of this fiasco May was a Remainer , Corbyn was a Leaver and both have changed their minds several times , May is now talking about an extension to the leave date , Corbyn now wants another referendum, WE CAN NEVER TRUST EITHER ,EVER AGAIN. The British public voted to Leave , whether a deal is struck or a no deal happens ,but parliament doesn't want a no deal so we can't trust that shower either . Lets get them out A.S.A.P.  

Get them out ASAP ? Well.. yeah.. that's the problem, isn't it ? Who do we vote for ? ALL of the main parties in parliament wanted to remain. 

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Setton
38 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

 , Corbyn now wants another referendum, 

I don't think anyone thinks he actually wants a referendum. He wants to have at least a couple of MPs left... 

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bee
3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Get them out ASAP ? Well.. yeah.. that's the problem, isn't it ? Who do we vote for ? ALL of the main parties in parliament wanted to remain. 

 

that's why Farage has set up the Brexit Party...

if it comes to a General Election we will all have to vote for that.... all 17.4 million of us  

even though UKIP is another option... at this point in history I think we would all need to rally round Nige
and the Brexit Party... to get this job done... 

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bee

 

result of the last General Election 2017...

link

Conservatives Votes –  13,667,213  Seats – 318 Vote Share – 42.4

Labour Votes – 12,874,985 Seats – 262 Vote Share – 40.0

other results on link but these are for the two main parties...
I know it would matter how the numbers spread around constituencies but 17.4 million is a very
decent number - if everyone stuck together for a crucial General Election.... if it comes to that
and if both the main parties fail to deliver...

 

 

 

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RabidMongoose
33 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Get them out ASAP ? Well.. yeah.. that's the problem, isn't it ? Who do we vote for ? ALL of the main parties in parliament wanted to remain. 

I think if 20,000 people go rioting about it that will set it all off like a spark in a tinderbox. It will flare up into mass rioting worse than has been going on in France.

I note the Queen has her `holiday` booked until it all settles down again lmao.

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stevewinn

We knew politics in this country was broken long before the Referendum vote. trouble is General Elections are never enough of a catalyst alone for change, not even the expenses scandal, But Brexit is. The HoC is being exposed like never before. Change is coming and its been long over due.

Leaving the EU is fast becoming a secondary issue, the fight, people vs Parliament is about to begin. Brexit will naturally follow in the aftermath of the old politics and ushered in under the new politics.when the time comes to go to war we take an army. were 17.4million strong. Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war!

 

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Setton
52 minutes ago, bee said:

 

result of the last General Election 2017...

link

Conservatives Votes –  13,667,213  Seats – 318 Vote Share – 42.4

Labour Votes – 12,874,985 Seats – 262 Vote Share – 40.0

other results on link but these are for the two main parties...
I know it would matter how the numbers spread around constituencies but 17.4 million is a very
decent number - if everyone stuck together for a crucial General Election.... if it comes to that
and if both the main parties fail to deliver...

 

 

 

Except those 17 million won't all vote together. For the simple reason Brexit is not everyone's top priority. Just like the Lib Dems did not get 16 million votes in the last election from remainers. 

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