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keithisco

Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

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Captain Risky
On 3/2/2019 at 6:12 AM, RoofGardener said:

It doesn't matter Stevewinn. We're not going to Brexit. The fix is in, and I'm stocking up on milk bottles and petrol :(

 

no offence buddy but you and steve don't really strike me as anarchists. :)

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stevewinn
7 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

no offence buddy but you and steve don't really strike me as anarchists. :)

Well you don't know us well enough, when things get serious, well lets just say this if Brexit doesn't happen - I'll be on here writing in full CAPITALS.

 

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Well you don't know us well enough, when things get serious, well lets just say this if Brexit doesn't happen - I'll be on here writing in full CAPITALS.

 

Okay. Still the clock is ticking and I think from reading British news outlets the soft brexiteers have it steve. Is that your take? 

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keithisco
16 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

So, of the Bournemouth East electorate:- 

38% voted leave.

32% voted remain.

30% couldn't be bothered.

That was nearly three years ago. The way things have panned out it looks like that was a waste of time.

Do you think people have learned anything worthwhile in the interim?

 

No... you miss the point about democratic voting. Those who do not vote do not get factored into the equation so:

1. 50.48% voted to Leave

2. 45.08% voted to Remain

What people may have learned in the interim is that the Political Project known as the EU is basically a "busted flush" which takes members tax money and consistently fails to account for 3-4 Billion pounds, charges its own Commissioners only a flat 10% tax, and already behaves like it is a State (which it is not).  I am confident that any future referendum (god forbid) would return an identical result or a larger Leave margin.

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keithisco
14 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Okay. Still the clock is ticking and I think from reading British news outlets the soft brexiteers have it steve. Is that your take? 

The majority of UK News media is heavily in the Remain camp and the BBC receives 20Million pounds in EU subsidies. Ill leave it to you to decide whether or not accuracy is first and foremost in any of its reportage

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Aaron2016

The mainstream media survive by spreading propaganda and doomsday theories.

 

This music video really sums up the attitude of the BBC and CNN.

 

 

 

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stevewinn
33 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Okay. Still the clock is ticking and I think from reading British news outlets the soft brexiteers have it steve. Is that your take? 

Unable to say as i have not read what you have.

What i do know, In Law we are leaving on the 29th  @11:00:00GMT this hasn't been altered and no legislation as been proposed, plus Theresa Mays Three options or votes on the 12th 13th 14th March all have us leaving. Two on March 29th or the other option to extend Art 50 till sometime in June. but ultimately all three have us leaving. would you concede that we are leaving the EU? 

It does look like Brexit means Brexit. leaving without a deal. followed by the resignation of May with a General Election following in mid April. I did note the other day a poll . General election who would you vote for,

Tory Party 13%

Labour Party 9%

Lib Dems 4%

Other Parties % 2

None of the Above 72% 

16,000 respondents.

 

 

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Unable to say as i have not read what you have.

What i do know, In Law we are leaving on the 29th  @11:00:00GMT this hasn't been altered and no legislation as been proposed, plus Theresa Mays Three options or votes on the 12th 13th 14th March all have us leaving. Two on March 29th or the other option to extend Art 50 till sometime in June. but ultimately all three have us leaving. would you concede that we are leaving the EU? 

It does look like Brexit means Brexit. leaving without a deal. followed by the resignation of May with a General Election following in mid April. I did note the other day a poll . General election who would you vote for,

Tory Party 13%

Labour Party 9%

Lib Dems 4%

Other Parties % 2

None of the Above 72% 

16,000 respondents.

 

 

I think that if we don't leave after all this, Ukip will be the biggest winners in any future elections.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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stevewinn
1 hour ago, itsnotoutthere said:

I think that if we don't leave after all this, Ukip will be the biggest winners in any future elections.

I've actually voted for UKIP in the European Elections, when they won Nationally. I wont be voting for them again, for me UKIP in its current guise especially with the likes of Tommy Robinson in their ranks.

If we don't leave, i haven't got a clue who id vote for but it wont be Labour Tory  Lib Dems or UKIP

I await a new party. maybe even join Farages new party. Already got 8 MEPs. Brexiteer MP's should join giving it some clout. 

The_Brexit_Party_logo_Feb_2019.png

 

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RAyMO
Posted (edited)

Apparently ERG group and DUP are no longer insisting that the WA backstop text is re-written. They will now accept " legally binding guarantee that the backstop is temporary" from the Attorney General.

 

Edited by RAyMO

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stevewinn
1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

Apparently ERG group and DUP are no longer insisting that the WA backstop text is re-written. They will now accept " legally binding guarantee that the backstop is temporary" from the Attorney General.

 

The document, seen by The Sunday Times, demands:

● A “clearly worded, legally binding, treaty-level clause which unambiguously overrides” the text of the withdrawal agreement

● Language that “must go beyond simply re-emphasising/re-interpreting the temporary nature of the backstop” and a change to Cox’s legal advice that it would “endure indefinitely”

● A “clear and unconditional route out of the backstop if trade talks fail”, which could mean “a time limit or a unilateral exit mechanism”.
 

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RabidMongoose
6 hours ago, keithisco said:

No... you miss the point about democratic voting. Those who do not vote do not get factored into the equation so:

1. 50.48% voted to Leave

2. 45.08% voted to Remain

What people may have learned in the interim is that the Political Project known as the EU is basically a "busted flush" which takes members tax money and consistently fails to account for 3-4 Billion pounds, charges its own Commissioners only a flat 10% tax, and already behaves like it is a State (which it is not).  I am confident that any future referendum (god forbid) would return an identical result or a larger Leave margin.

Someone cannot add.

Its 52% remain and 48% leave.

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Ozymandias
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Someone cannot add.

Its 52% remain and 48% leave.

Neither of you are wholly correct!

Firstly, Rabidmongoose, if you had read the sequence of posts properly you would have realised that Keithisco's figures do not relate to the nation-wide referendum result, but to the Bournemouth East returns.

Secondly, Keithisco, your calculations relating to the electoral returns from Bournemouth East in the 2016 referendum have somehow managed to lose 4.44% of that constituency's electors.

Thirdly, with reference to my original question as to whether people had learned anything about Brexit since the referendum, well, I should have known better than to ask in the first place. :)

 

Edited by Ozymandias

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stevewinn
8 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

Neither of you are wholly correct!

Firstly, Rabidmongoose, if you had read the sequence of posts properly you would have realised that Keithisco's figures do not relate to the nation-wide referendum result, but to the Bournemouth East returns.

Secondly, Keithisco, your calculations relating to the electoral returns from Bournemouth East in the 2016 referendum have somehow managed to lose 4.44% of that constituency's electors.

Thirdly, with reference to my original question as to whether people had learned anything about Brexit since the referendum, well, I should have known better than to ask in the first place. :)

 

Im surprised your still fighting the 2016 results, with that in mind. - Has anyone learned anything about Brexit since the referendum. Well, yes, we learnt there was no immediate recession following the vote there wasn't 800,000 jobs losses, no emergency budget. in fact we learnt all the forecasts which foretold our demise by the Remain side to be without a doubt to be utterly false.

We've also learnt since the referendum that Ireland's economy will be disproportionally hit harder than anyone else in the EU under a no deal Brexit.

25 days till Brexit.

 

 

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stevewinn
19 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Apparently ERG group and DUP are no longer insisting that the WA backstop text is re-written. They will now accept " legally binding guarantee that the backstop is temporary" from the Attorney General.

 

It seems the one clause which would have helped Mays WA is slipping away.

Quote

 

U.K. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has abandoned attempts to secure a hard time-limit or unilateral exit mechanism for the Irish backstop, the Telegraph reported on Sunday.

Demands for an “independent” arbitration panel by the negotiators are being resisted by the EU, outside the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice,

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-backstop/cox-scraps-bid-for-irish-backstop-time-limit-exit-clause-telegraph-idUSKCN1QK0QQ

 

 

The EU, with weeks to go are still sh!t scared of the UK being free of the ECJ, That in itself, should be enough to ensure that the UK leaves in 25 days. It is clear that the EU have no interest in negotiating, the sole aim is to keep the UK under the control of Brussels and under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

I did allude to it last week.

 

 

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Ozymandias
5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The EU, with weeks to go are still sh!t scared of the UK being free of the ECJ,

No they're not. Otherwise why would they adopt such a hardline negotiating position - one that has the greatest chance of seeing the UK go with no deal on the 29th March. If they were scared they would be disposed to being more conciliatory.

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

That in itself, should be enough to ensure that the UK leaves in 25 days.

But you are going in 25 days, or as soon thereafter as can be agreed in order to minimise the adverse effects of Brexit - a minimisation that is in the interest of all concerned parties.

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

It is clear that the EU have no interest in negotiating,

Not true. The EU has been negotiating for as long as the UK has. What you mean is that the EU has not been willing to give the UK the terms of agreement it desires. In other words, the UK wants a deal to the material and existential detriment of the EU and, not unnaturally, the EU will not agree.

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

the sole aim is to keep the UK under the control of Brussels and under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

You are deluded. Everybody acknowledges and accepts that the UK is going. That is a fact. The UK is going.

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I did allude to it last week.

Yes. You did!

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stevewinn
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

No they're not. Otherwise why would they adopt such a hardline negotiating position - one that has the greatest chance of seeing the UK go with no deal on the 29th March. If they were scared they would be disposed to being more conciliatory.

But you are going in 25 days, or as soon thereafter as can be agreed in order to minimise the adverse effects of Brexit - a minimisation that is in the interest of all concerned parties.

Not true. The EU has been negotiating for as long as the UK has. What you mean is that the EU has not been willing to give the UK the terms of agreement it desires. In other words, the UK wants a deal to the material and existential detriment of the EU and, not unnaturally, the EU will not agree.

You are deluded. Everybody acknowledges and accepts that the UK is going. That is a fact. The UK is going.

Yes. You did!

do you think. I'd say their relying on MP's bottling it, lets be honest the EU commission as been getting different signals with their off the record briefings with opposition MP's and parties, Labour, Lib Dems, and your Tony Blairs. - who've constantly said throughout the 2yr 9mths that the UK wont Leave. first it was a change of government that was on the cards, change of leader, votes of no confidence, then a second referendum then amendments in Parliament.

The clear message from MP's is we wont leave without a Deal hence the EU's intransigent approach, and let us remember this 2yr 9mths has not even been about trade, only about an agreement on how to go forward to THEN talk about trade, but ultimately to trap the UK in the EU/ECJ. unable to leave without the EU's permission. Make no mistake about it the EU is gambling, banking on the UK parliament panicking and signing up to Theresa May's surrender document.

Even with all this we can be proud as a country we've got this far usually in the EU when a referendum goes against them its ignored or in Ireland's case re-run. Brexit as pushed the EU to the deadline.

what we can say is just look at the amount of foreign investment into the UK from the likes of German companies etc.... or from around the world, the worlds largest sovereign investment fund (Norway) as bet the UK flourishes after Brexit. they, companies know the UK leaving the EU will be like lighting the touch paper on a rocket ship. if only one country could flourish outside the EU its the UK.

 

 

 

Edited by stevewinn
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RabidMongoose
19 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

Neither of you are wholly correct!

Firstly, Rabidmongoose, if you had read the sequence of posts properly you would have realised that Keithisco's figures do not relate to the nation-wide referendum result, but to the Bournemouth East returns.

Secondly, Keithisco, your calculations relating to the electoral returns from Bournemouth East in the 2016 referendum have somehow managed to lose 4.44% of that constituency's electors.

Thirdly, with reference to my original question as to whether people had learned anything about Brexit since the referendum, well, I should have known better than to ask in the first place. :)

 

Excuses excuses

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RabidMongoose
10 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Im surprised your still fighting the 2016 results, with that in mind. - Has anyone learned anything about Brexit since the referendum. Well, yes, we learnt there was no immediate recession following the vote there wasn't 800,000 jobs losses, no emergency budget. in fact we learnt all the forecasts which foretold our demise by the Remain side to be without a doubt to be utterly false.

We've also learnt since the referendum that Ireland's economy will be disproportionally hit harder than anyone else in the EU under a no deal Brexit.

25 days till Brexit.

 

 

We hold the power not the EU (including the Irish) because we import far more than we export to them.

It is not them who should be dictating terms to us but us to them. Why are we being told we need to pay £39 billion per year for a customs union when they gain more from it that us?

We should be charging them for it and by my calculations something in the region of £10 billion to offset how we import more from them than we export. If we are in the customs union for a few years then when that trade balance moves to our favour we can redress it reducing the £10 billion, and, if we do super well then start paying them.

Cheeky gits.

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RAyMO
11 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

We hold the power not the EU (including the Irish) because we import far more than we export to them.

Yeah I've heard that quite a lot over the last 3 years.

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Ozymandias

The former UK ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, explains the UK's inability to understand how the EU works!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-understand-eu-works-brexit-ivan-rogers-a8806931.html

If you don't like or distrust second-hand reportage the full video of Sir Ivan Rogers' interview can be viewed at the following link:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/Sir-Ivan-Rogers

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RabidMongoose
34 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

The former UK ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, explains the UK's inability to understand how the EU works!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-understand-eu-works-brexit-ivan-rogers-a8806931.html

If you don't like or distrust second-hand reportage the full video of Sir Ivan Rogers' interview can be viewed at the following link:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/Sir-Ivan-Rogers

Yawn, we dont care, we want to leave.

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L.A.T.1961
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

The former UK ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, explains the UK's inability to understand how the EU works!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-understand-eu-works-brexit-ivan-rogers-a8806931.html

If you don't like or distrust second-hand reportage the full video of Sir Ivan Rogers' interview can be viewed at the following link:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/Sir-Ivan-Rogers

Sir Ivan will have to pop over to Brussels and brief them as well as they seem to make it up as they go along. 

Not difficult to see why UK cannot make heads or tails of it.  ;)

Edited by L.A.T.1961
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stevewinn
4 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

The former UK ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, explains the UK's inability to understand how the EU works!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-understand-eu-works-brexit-ivan-rogers-a8806931.html

If you don't like or distrust second-hand reportage the full video of Sir Ivan Rogers' interview can be viewed at the following link:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/Sir-Ivan-Rogers

The same ivan Rogers who was the UKs top civil servant in Brussels. Until he had to resign. Its quite clear all that time spent in Brussels as meant he's went native. He was an irrelevance in 2016. And even more so now.

Next you'll be wheeling tony blair out. Oh, you have already.

These very same people lost you the referendum. No-one cares. Project fear has failed. The battle for a second referendum as failed. A bid to stop brexit as failed.

24 days Brexit. Excellent

 

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stevewinn

Oh no, bad news today, massive delays at Calais, all food and medicines are not going to get through where all going to die. oh hang on, its a French workers strike. that's okay then its only Brexit delays that will kill us. (the strike is in its second day)

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190305/french-customs-brexit-causes-major-disruption-at-calais

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/47454150

 

 

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