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Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;


keithisco

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25 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

It is with great dismay I have to report on William Hills betting odds today.

If a General Election happens this year the outcome will most likely be a hung Parliament or a narrow Conservative victory putting us right back where we are now.

If Boris goes this year then it is with not only great dismay but great disbelief too that Corbyn is by far odds on favourite to be the next PM after him. Followed by Ken Clarke who is so pro-EU he would totally roll over to it instead of honouring Brexit.

Hung Parliament !!! after what's happened and Corbyn the worst performing opposition leader in History with a poll rating lower than a snakes belly as PM.

Here on the ground im getting a totally different outcome from numerous people.

A good mate of mine who voted remain and votes Labour said to us4 only this week funny enough. that Labour are totally hopeless, and the more he hears and sees of them the more they put him off voting for them, he wont be voting for them. and after talking about Parliament passing the benn bill and asking for an extension. he said if he had to vote in a referendum he'd vote leave this time on the grounds of democracy. as we where in company when this was said it was the general consensus. I said get voting for the Brexit party. feck the tories and labour, to which another mate said look at ste there on the far right, to be fair i was sitting right at the end of the row, on the right.

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, RAyMO said:

This is the case. the point about taking of the table now is so that the UK doesn't exit with a no deal during the election period. The new government can do what it wants anything from no deal to revoke.

At this stage I almost be happy to see no deal - just the see how the Brexit parties fare in an election just after a no deal brexit.

 

If there was a no deal Brexit there would, in theory, be no need for the Brexit Party but perhaps they could stick
around to provide an alternative to the two main parties.... new blood....

  

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10 minutes ago, bee said:

 

If there was a no deal Brexit there would, in theory, be no need for the Brexit Party but perhaps they could stick
around to provide an alternative to the two main parties.... new blood....

  

true Bee but I was including Tories and DUP - though I am not sure about the Brexit party itself - but yes theoretically they should be defunct - what would Mr Farage do?

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16 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

It is with great dismay I have to report on William Hills betting odds today.

If a General Election happens this year the outcome will most likely be a hung Parliament or a narrow Conservative victory putting us right back where we are now.

If Boris goes this year then it is with not only great dismay but great disbelief too that Corbyn is by far odds on favourite to be the next PM after him. Followed by Ken Clarke who is so pro-EU he would totally roll over to it instead of honouring Brexit.

 

the odds about the next GE tell a contradictory story... for example below...
(I suppose if Boris remains PM he can't be in the 'Next PM' betting...

It puts Tories 2/9 to get the most seats.... BUT.... although the Brexit Party is 40/1
could the Tories actually remain in Govt without support from the Brexit Party..?
If Brexit isn't sorted by then... and even if it is with an unsatisfactory outcome to majority of Leave
Voters... 

:wacko:

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1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

true Bee but I was including Tories and DUP - though I am not sure about the Brexit party itself - but yes theoretically they should be defunct - what would Mr Farage do?

 

oh ok....

re what Farage would do....

I think that if we actually left the EU properly he would be more than happy to get out of Front Line Politics..
and has said that... (can't give a link to back that up but it's from memory - he only formed the Brexit Party
when it becaime apparent that Remainers weren't accepting the result of the referendum and weren't going
to give in....)

 

 

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40 minutes ago, bee said:

 

the odds about the next GE tell a contradictory story... for example below...
(I suppose if Boris remains PM he can't be in the 'Next PM' betting...

It puts Tories 2/9 to get the most seats.... BUT.... although the Brexit Party is 40/1
could the Tories actually remain in Govt without support from the Brexit Party..?
If Brexit isn't sorted by then... and even if it is with an unsatisfactory outcome to majority of Leave
Voters... 

:wacko:

Being honest If I was a labour mp I would not want a poll - not until those with the numbers realise that Corbyn is an electoral dead-weight. Tories on the other hand should be as they are pressing for a poll as soon as possible - just in case Labour get  a dose of reality and chuck Corbyn.

I suspect Tories in England will have to win enough additional seats to replace the 12? Tories north of the border and to make up for possibly 4 counting seats (DUP) in NI. DUP could lose 2 seats but be replaced by Alliance for example who would take their seats unlike Sinn Fein. So Tory England would need 16 additional seats just to be in the position we are now.

Latest opinion polls in NI show Boris deal in NI is preferred over no deal, and that since the Boris deal became public that support for remain in NI has grown:

"About 72%, excluding don’t knows, would vote to remain in the EU in a second referendum instead of accepting the latest version of the withdrawal agreement, if they were given that option. Just 28% would back the Johnson deal in that context."

"some 62% of those surveyed by LucidTalk, a Belfast polling company, said they would back the British prime minister’s withdrawal agreement over a no-deal Brexit, while 38% would prefer to crash out without a deal."

I include the second stat just to show that the DUP position on the talks are not representative of NI as a whole.

Whilst I know that the Referendum was UK wide, post an election it will become even more apparent that Scotland and NI are clearly Anti Brexit, pushing ahead with Brexit in its current form will therefore prove a boost to nationalists in both countries as it will be easy to argue that the UK London based parliament has no interest in the wishes of people in Scotland and NI. If further to a Brexit, jobs were to be lost, livelihoods lost (in NI and Scotland) this would add even more of a boost to those (admittedly like me) who would like to see a break up of the UK in its current format.

I say current format because unlike some I am not against some sort of a formal relationship, but it has to one that recognises the differences in the countries as well as the commonalities. In fact I am not even against some sort of formal relationship between all 5 countries on the British Isles on that basis - but realistically I think the ROI would be very many years away from such an arrangement.

 

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image.png.4e16cd77e80c58b25dd4976aece66faa.png

Remember when May had a big lead in the polls just after the European Elections. where the Brexit party wiped the floor with the rest of them, So, the Tories thought the Brexit votes in a general election would automatically transfer to a Tory victory. (majority) (even i thought this would be the case) then while G.E campaigning May come out with outright stupid policies such as the "dementia tax" and a host of others which were bizarre and as such lost her majority. looking back it was almost like she didn't want to win, or win outright.

Well, the latest poll doing the rounds today in the Observer and Guardian is the one above. interesting.

Anyway.

Withdrawal Treaty 2 versus just leaving

By John Redwood MP.

My long held view is I want to leave the EU as soon as possible without signing a Withdrawal Treaty. We should offer a free trade agreement to avoid the need for tariffs if the EU would agree to talks after we leave.

Opinion polling shows that just leaving is more popular than accepting Withdrawal Treaty 2. That commands just 19% support. It is more popular than Withdrawal Treaty 1. Withdrawal Treaty 2 is clearly an improvement on 1.  Polls also show a majority of those who want to just leave would rather sign Withdrawal Treaty 2 than remain or delay further if they cannot achieve their first preference thanks to this Remain oriented Parliament.

It is difficult to fathom why so few MPs make the public case for just leaving when it is a more popular option than the policies they advocate and when it is so obviously in the national interest. This dithering and delaying Parliament is creating continuing business uncertainty. It is talking us down. It is making us an international joke. Much of the governing establishment tells us by word or deed they think we should be governed by the EU and cannot manage to govern ourselves.

I thought Ministers, Shadow Ministers and MPs were employed to speak up for the UK, to create a realistic confidence in ourselves and our future. Instead many assist the EU in their negotiations, take their side in disputes when the government does speak up for us, and seem to take pleasure in any bad news as proof the public made the wrong decision.

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SNP & Lib Dems seem to be getting a bit worried about the no show of an extension agreement from Brussels and are now sending begging letters. -

SNP and the Liberal Democrats have written to European Council President Donald Tusk to call for a Brexit extension until January 31 – or later. 

 

In the meantime France is taking an increasingly hard line. - 

France wants clarity from UK before considering Brexit deadline extension.

French European Affairs Minister Amelie de Montchalin said on Sunday.

“We cannot give extra time based on political fiction." 

 

Squeaky bum time for remainers . ;) 

 

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1441905-snp-and-lib-dems-write-to-eu-calling-for-brexit-extension/ 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-france/france-wants-clarity-from-uk-before-considering-brexit-deadline-extension-idUSKBN1X60DL?rpc=401& 

 

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20 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Hung Parliament !!! after what's happened and Corbyn the worst performing opposition leader in History with a poll rating lower than a snakes belly as PM.

Here on the ground im getting a totally different outcome from numerous people.

A good mate of mine who voted remain and votes Labour said to us4 only this week funny enough. that Labour are totally hopeless, and the more he hears and sees of them the more they put him off voting for them, he wont be voting for them. and after talking about Parliament passing the benn bill and asking for an extension. he said if he had to vote in a referendum he'd vote leave this time on the grounds of democracy. as we where in company when this was said it was the general consensus. I said get voting for the Brexit party. feck the tories and labour, to which another mate said look at ste there on the far right, to be fair i was sitting right at the end of the row, on the right.

 

 

 

Gosh, well if you're mate says so, clearly the whole country must feel the same way! 

No need to bother with elections in future, we can just ask Steve's mate. 

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58 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

SNP & Lib Dems seem to be getting a bit worried about the no show of an extension agreement from Brussels and are now sending begging letters. -

SNP and the Liberal Democrats have written to European Council President Donald Tusk to call for a Brexit extension until January 31 – or later. 

 

In the meantime France is taking an increasingly hard line. - 

France wants clarity from UK before considering Brexit deadline extension.

French European Affairs Minister Amelie de Montchalin said on Sunday.

“We cannot give extra time based on political fiction." 

 

Squeaky bum time for remainers . ;) 

 

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1441905-snp-and-lib-dems-write-to-eu-calling-for-brexit-extension/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-france/france-wants-clarity-from-uk-before-considering-brexit-deadline-extension-idUSKBN1X60DL?rpc=401&

 

The SNP and Lib Dems are acting without authority.

 

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Parliament, or groups within, communicating directly with EU does open a new can of worms. Does the EU now take national parliaments more seriously than the recognised government and leader/ prime minister? 

Will we see more parliamentary letters arriving In Brussels, not supported by national leaders, being used to shape EU policy.

I don't recall any previous precedent where Brussels knowingly ignored the wishes of a government/PM in favour of random groups of parliamentarians acting together to do something else.

If the EU does agree an extension, against Boris's own letter, they will be making a rod for their own backs, but it will show how desperate Brussels is to stay in control of the situation and the UK.  

 

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24 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Parliament, or groups within, communicating directly with EU does open a new can of worms. Does the EU now take national parliaments more seriously than the recognised government and leader/ prime minister? 

Will we see more parliamentary letters arriving In Brussels, not supported by national leaders, being used to shape EU policy.

I don't recall any previous precedent where Brussels knowingly ignored the wishes of a government/PM in favour of random groups of parliamentarians acting together to do something else.

If the EU does agree an extension, against Boris's own letter, they will be making a rod for their own backs, but it will show how desperate Brussels is to stay in control of the situation and the UK.  

 

Quislings that's what they are.

Acting in their own self interest. very dangerous people. i wonder if Mi5 have been keeping tabs on them. i'd expect them to.

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4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The SNP and Lib Dems are acting without authority.

They are the elected representatives of their constituencies. I'd say that gives them some authority. 

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4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Quislings that's what they are.

Acting in their own self interest. very dangerous people. i wonder if Mi5 have been keeping tabs on them. i'd expect them to.

:lol:

I expect they're a little tied up with your friends who think violence against MPs is justified and are raising money to murder your political opponents. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50202060

But, you know, they're the real defenders of democracy :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, Setton said:

They are the elected representatives of their constituencies. I'd say that gives them some authority. 

Many would disagree and they'd be right. Negotiations are between the UK Govt and EU. The SNP&Lib Dems are not the Govt. And can negotiate zilch. 

1 hour ago, Setton said:

:lol:

I expect they're a little tied up with your friends who think violence against MPs is justified and are raising money to murder your political opponents. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50202060

But, you know, they're the real defenders of democracy :rolleyes:

Age of the internet, and surprise surprise where once we kept stupid people away. Telling to shut up and get back in the house now these people only have to have Internet access, and instead of telling them their stupid and shut up their thick. Now they have a voice and people like yourself take notice of it. And so do the BBC. Hopefully the police move in and lock them up for being stupid. 

And if you think the idiots represent the 17.4million. Then your not to bright yourself. 

 

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27 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Many would disagree and they'd be right. Negotiations are between the UK Govt and EU. The SNP&Lib Dems are not the Govt. And can negotiate zilch. 

Age of the internet, and surprise surprise where once we kept stupid people away. Telling to shut up and get back in the house now these people only have to have Internet access, and instead of telling them their stupid and shut up their thick. Now they have a voice and people like yourself take notice of it. And so do the BBC. Hopefully the police move in and lock them up for being stupid. 

And if you think the idiots represent the 17.4million. Then your not to bright yourself. 

 

They're, they're and you're. Also, punctuation. 

Please... 

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37 minutes ago, Setton said:

They're, they're and you're. Also, punctuation. 

Please... 

Saddo. 

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42 minutes ago, Setton said:

They're, they're and you're. Also, punctuation. 

Please... 

So now you have degenerated into a grammar troll?

Why doesnt it surprise me lol.

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9 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

So now you have degenerated into a grammar troll?

Why doesnt it surprise me lol.

Just highlighting the irony of Steve talking about thick people on the internet. 

No surprise it went straight over his head. 

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There seems to be a lot of name calling and back stabbing on this page of U.M. is it necessary as we are all adults (I think) ,and not a lot of kids trying to bully . 

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Thats another £3 billion in their bank , messing about is costing us money apart from the E.U. laughing like hyena's . Its time we had an election and get this pathetic bunch of idiots out of the door .

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Corbyn said the labour party would only back a General election if the no-deal scenario for 31st October was off the table.  Now that it is, labour should back another General election today.  Otherwise, what are they waiting for?

Are we set for a 12th December election?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Aaron2016 said:

Corbyn said the labour party would only back a General election if the no-deal scenario for 31st October was off the table

They want a no deal of the table during an election period- 31 Oct was never an issue per se for Labour. The UK have to accept the EU offer of an extension. But that should be automatic.

I suspect 9 December more likely.  The 12th is a deliberate choice by the Tories to reduce student votes - something the Lib Dems and Labour are aware of.

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1 hour ago, spud the mackem said:

Thats another £3 billion in their bank , messing about is costing us money

Assuming that they are charging that amount - but since otherwise we would be in transition - if we had accepted Boris deal - and since transition is not being extended by 3 months I suspect the cost is neutral. 

It is not neutral against a no deal though, but apparently that is not government policy.

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