Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[TigerBright19]

So what happens if nothing has been agreed by the end of January?  Another extension....and another.....and another.....?

Cameron announced back in February 2016 that we would have a referendum.  Who would have imagined that 4 years later nothing had changed.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Aaron2016

[RAyMO]

53 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

So what happens if nothing has been agreed by the end of January?  Another extension....and another.....and another.....?

Well that depends on the electorate. If we have an election then the electorate will decide who gets to govern and what direction Brexit takes. after an election I see 4 possibilities

The Boris deal

Referendum.

Revocation of Article 50

No Deal.

in that order of likelihood.

In NI it will be interesting to see how the Unionist parties line up viz a vie Brexit. Will the UUP be anti Brexit? Will the DUP change their tune?

More interestingly will voters shun traditional parties for ones that more represent their interests on Brexit, rather than voting on traditional sectarian grounds.

Edited October 28, 2019 by RAyMO

[Setton]

2 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

EU have agreed another Brexit extension with a new deadline set for 31st January.  Here we go again.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-has-agreed-brexit-delay-until-january-2020-tusk-11847480

 

 

 

 

[L.A.T.1961]

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

 

I suspect 9 December more likely.  The 12th is a deliberate choice by the Tories to reduce student votes - something the Lib Dems and Labour are aware of.

So that is the reason for a different date  I am not sure why the LIb Dems think it will make a difference to their vote. Students will not get out of bed and vote on a cold, dark, wet, December day even if they have forgotten about the LibDem student fees fiasco. 

[RAyMO]

1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

So that is the reason for a different date  I am not sure why the LIb Dems think it will make a difference to their vote. Students will not get out of bed and vote on a cold, dark, wet, December day even if they have forgotten about the LibDem student fees fiasco. 

Partly yes, the 9th is the earliest date available. The further we go to Christmas the theory is, the fewer students will vote as they will be going home for the holiday period.

Secondly it supposedly also reduces the time for Boris to try and get his bill through parliament before an election.

[RAyMO]

If Boris can give a commitment legally, to no shenanigans re his Bill during the period from now to an election there will be an election mid December.

Its really that simple.

While it is highly unlikely that votes in NI will play as the DUPs did last time on the national outcome, I still would like to see this election.

Much good could come of it outside of the Brexit issue.

For example Corbyn could be ejected as leader of the Labour party if they fail to win - here's hoping

Some in NI may finally bring themselves to vote on issues rather than religion - that would be great.

Edited October 28, 2019 by RAyMO

[skookum]

1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

So that is the reason for a different date  I am not sure why the LIb Dems think it will make a difference to their vote. Students will not get out of bed and vote on a cold, dark, wet, December day even if they have forgotten about the LibDem student fees fiasco. 

I hate to say it but the last election was controversial as it is highly suspected that some students voted twice.  Once at their registered University town and again when they returned home.  Corbyn was playing the Pied Piper at the time offering them free everything and gained a massive youth vote, possibly twice.

Swinson probably thinks the Universities have indocranated the students enough to vote for her, twice lol

Edited October 28, 2019 by skookum

[RAyMO]

10 minutes ago, skookum said:

Once at their registered University town and again when they returned home.  Corbyn was playing the Pied Piper at the time offering them free everything and gained a massive youth vote, possibly twice

Such allegations were reported to the electoral commission and the police - were any students convicted?

[L.A.T.1961]

8 minutes ago, skookum said:

I hate to say it but the last election was controversial as it is highly suspected that some students voted twice.  Once at their registered University town and again when they returned home.  Corbyn was playing the Pied Piper at the time offering them free everything and gained a massive youth vote, possibly twice.

Swinson probably thinks the Universities have indocranated the students enough to vote for her, twice lol

Yes, it was widely thought that the youth vote had boosted the Labour party vote in 2017 but when the numbers were looked at there was no evidence to support the idea. 

 

The myth of the 2017 'youthquake' election. - 

"After the surprise of the Conservatives losing their majority in the June 2017 general election, people started looking for an explanation.

One theory quickly came to prominence: Jeremy Corbyn had enthused previously disengaged young voters, who turned out in droves to vote Labour.

But we now know there was no surge in youth turnout."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342 

 

[skookum]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Such allegations were reported to the electoral commission and the police - were any students convicted?

Really

Quote

The Electoral Commission has not, itself, investigated claims people voted twice, and has not ruled on whether people did not not.

Instead, its report pointed out that "in the days following the election, a number of people on social media claimed that they had voted twice."

 

[RAyMO]

7 minutes ago, skookum said:

Really

 

"Although we received a significant amount of correspondence about claims – largely emanating from social media - that people voted twice at the general election, and we take these reports very seriously, there is so far a lack of evidence of widespread abuse."  - Electoral Commission 2017

Claims made on social media that people had voted twice prompted more than 1,000 emails to the Electoral Commission and 60 letters from 47 MPs. But only one person was convicted after pleading guilty to multiple voting. He was fined. Two cases resulted in no further action and one was deemed not in the public interest to prosecute.

A fifth case remains under investigation, according to the Electoral Commission figures - 2018

The suspicion might have been there, the allegations may have been there, but no prosecutions to support those views. Even the one prosecution was for an individual voting twice from the same constituency.

Edited October 28, 2019 by RAyMO

[skookum]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

"Although we received a significant amount of correspondence about claims – largely emanating from social media - that people voted twice at the general election, and we take these reports very seriously, there is so far a lack of evidence of widespread abuse."  - Electoral Commission 2017

Claims made on social media that people had voted twice prompted more than 1,000 emails to the Electoral Commission and 60 letters from 47 MPs. But only one person was convicted after pleading guilty to multiple voting. He was fined. Two cases resulted in no further action and one was deemed not in the public interest to prosecute.

A fifth case remains under investigation, according to the Electoral Commission figures - 2018

Quote

The Commission's report noted "notable increases" in the number of registered electors, of more than 10%, in student-heavy seats.

It singled out Canterbury, Cambridge, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol West and Leeds Central as examples. Labour won Canterbury for the first time in its history by just 187 votes.

More than two thirds (69%) of 2.9million applications after Theresa May called the snap poll were by people under 35.

And tactical voting tools allowed students to check where there vote would count the most out of the two seats where they were registered.

Rotten to the last.  If this had been the referendum there would have been investigation after investigation.  Except it helped upset Brexit so was brushed under the carpet.

[RAyMO]

8 minutes ago, skookum said:

And tactical voting tools allowed students to check where there vote would count the most out of the two seats where they were registered.

While you might not like it it is not against the law for students to register at both home and student addresses and to vote in whichever they choose. once of course!

But as @L.A.T.1961 has shown there was no surge of young voters in the 2017 election.

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by RAyMO

[Unusual Tournament]

5 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

So what happens if nothing has been agreed by the end of January?  Another extension....and another.....and another.....?

Cameron announced back in February 2016 that we would have a referendum.  Who would have imagined that 4 years later nothing had changed.

Nothing has changed because there are several different interpretations of brexit and no clear majority for either one. Ive said it many times, you need another referendum more than you need an election. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Captain Risky

[Space Commander Travis]

I read a theory that suggested that the ruler of France, M. Macaroon, might actually be willing to help Sir Boris accomplish Brexit as he sees the UK as the only thing standing between he and his ambition to be Emperor of Europe. So the sooner that the UK no longer has the capacity to interfere in the Greater European Empire, therefore, the better it will be for him. Perhaps, however, a free and independent Britain might once again take up its time-honoured position of being the thorn in the side of the dictator who wants to control Europe.  

Edited October 28, 2019 by Dumbledore the Awesome

[Unusual Tournament]

On 10/25/2019 at 5:29 AM, stevewinn said:

No, because he could have called a vote of no confidence in his own govt. Which would have forced a G.E.

He could have filibustered the Benn bill in the house of lords but chose not to.

And now talk of a December election. Where you'd expect a low turn out. And potentially bleak weather.

Replacing one inept government with another is not going to solve anything, steve. Both Boris and Corbyn are peanuts. 

[Unusual Tournament]

8 minutes ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

I read a theory that suggested that the ruler of France, M. Macaroon, might actually be willing to help Sir Boris accomplish Brexit as he sees the UK as the only thing standing between he and his ambition to be Emperor of Europe. So the sooner that the UK no longer has the capacity to interfere in the Greater European Empire, therefore, the better it will be for him. Perhaps, however, a free and independent Britain might once again take up its time-honoured position of being the thorn in the side of the dictator who wants to control Europe.  

I doubt Macron can help you leave the EU anymore than the UK can stop the infighting and agree on an exit strategy. 

[Unusual Tournament]

7 hours ago, spud the mackem said:

Thats another £3 billion in their bank , messing about is costing us money apart from the E.U. laughing like hyena's . Its time we had an election and get this pathetic bunch of idiots out of the door .

Chewing up the exit bill isn't some random event. Its been planned by both the EU and UK governments just in case of a no deal. The EU holds all the cards. 

[Unusual Tournament]

2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

If Boris can give a commitment legally, to no shenanigans re his Bill during the period from now to an election there will be an election mid December.

Its really that simple.

While it is highly unlikely that votes in NI will play as the DUPs did last time on the national outcome, I still would like to see this election.

Much good could come of it outside of the Brexit issue.

For example Corbyn could be ejected as leader of the Labour party if they fail to win - here's hoping

Some in NI may finally bring themselves to vote on issues rather than religion - that would be great.

Corbin was never a problem for the UK. Blame the brexiters for not delivering brexit. 

Its laughable that a buffoon like Boris and the silly ERG would give a commitment for anything other than ballsing up again.

Just imagine if they didn't even mention Hard Brexit and agreed to supporting May negotiating a sensible exit agreement. Imagine if May didn't call an election. No DUP and no delays. Where would the UK be today. It would have left in May like promised. What if Boris had kept his promise to leave no matter what. Well You would have left in a couple of days.

Instead UK democracy has taken a back seat to the lies and political aspirations of the moronic 'afternoons are for high tea' ERG club, the DUP and the clownish Trump impersonator. 

 

[Setton]

2 hours ago, skookum said:

Rotten to the last.  If this had been the referendum there would have been investigation after investigation.  Except it helped upset Brexit so was brushed under the carpet.

All that shows is that people wanted to vote. 

If you're going to peddle unfounded conspiracy theories to explain your failures, can you at least put a little effort into it? It keeps things interesting. 

[RAyMO]

7 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Corbin was never a problem for the UK.

Corbyn is not a problem for the UK - he IS a problem for the electability of Labour. whatever you think of his policies he was the wrong man to deliver them.

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

Corbyn is not a problem for the UK - he IS a problem for the electability of Labour. whatever you think of his policies he was the wrong man to deliver them.

Labour was never in control it was all the Tories. They called brexit they won brexit and they ballsed it up. In short they own it ! Its their mess. Labour could have put up a card board cut out of Corbyn in parliament and it wouldn't have made an difference to Brexit one bit.  

[stevewinn]

• 29th March 2019.
• 12th April.
• 31st October.
• 31st January 2020.

Its clear we need to sack this Parliament. Tories included. is Boris in a ditch?

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

• 29th March 2019.
• 12th April.
• 31st October.
• 31st January 2020.

Its clear we need to sack this Parliament. Tories included. is Boris in a ditch?

Well one thing is for sure, you won't get anything done with that lot !

[TigerBright19]

1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

Nothing has changed because there are several different interpretations of brexit and no clear majority for either one. Ive said it many times, you need another referendum more than you need an election. 

But we can't assume the public did not know what they were voting for.  We should just respect and accept their first vote.  There must be millions of reasons why each individual voted the way they did.  e.g.  They tossed a coin and it landed heads etc.  Having another referendum is no guarantee that the opposite result can be achieved.