Opening gambits in EU / UK exit negotiations;

[FLOMBIE]

Always a good choice.

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, LV-426 said:

Seeing as Labour today pledged to unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU residents living in Britain, while not demanding the same for their own countrymen abroad, probably best to replace that passport with a German one

Its all rather strange, The Labour Party, the party of the lower working class, but who flooded the country with cheap migrant labour from the EU and beyond and now here we are with Britain's National interest front and centre and the Labour party are more worried about the rights of EU citizens like somehow they are something special to the rest of the worlds citizens who reside in the UK. The Labour party is a complete joke. lets put British citizens and National interest first and then worry about the periphery.

Edited April 25, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

...update from a meeting held on Monday afternoon between the EU27 regarding negotiations:
 

Quote

 

France has insisted that the City remains under EU regulation after Brexit and that banking is excluded from a future trade deal.

The new demand will alarm Brexit hardliners, who hope that the City can be unshackled from European supervisors and legislation after Britain leaves the EU.

France inserted the condition into European negotiating guidelines at the last minute during talks between “sherpas” for the EU27 leaders on Monday afternoon. Paris fears that the City will have competitive advantages after Brexit.

“Any future framework should safeguard financial stability in the Union and respect its regulatory and supervisory standards regime and application,” the new clause says in a draft seen by The Times.

Negotiations had to be stopped on Monday when French diplomats ambushed their EU colleagues with the demand, which had not been circulated in advance in breach of protocol.

 

Source:

Highlighted part: I think the whole EU are now realising that competitiveness comes from not being hidebound by Brussels diktats and that trading globally is preferable to the trade barriers erected around the EU

[stevewinn]

33 minutes ago, keithisco said:

...update from a meeting held on Monday afternoon between the EU27 regarding negotiations:
 

Source:

Highlighted part: I think the whole EU are now realising that competitiveness comes from not being hidebound by Brussels diktats and that trading globally is preferable to the trade barriers erected around the EU

The EU seems to think after Brexit they'll retain some form of authority over the UK; be it EU Laws or EU citizens living under EU rights while resident in the UK. I don't think they fully understand what Brexit actually means.

The EU true to form is entering talks unprepared hence the last minute demands and proposals being threw into the official meetings/talks, remember last time they where all sat around the table the next minute the door comes flying open and it was Spain with Gibraltar, and the same as happened again this time with France, lock the bloody door. amateurs.

 

 

[LV-426]

I honestly can't see the next two years ending in anything other than "no deal."

We're going to see these stories every week with Eurocrats falling over each other to demand this, that and the other.

If, as expected, May wins the general election convincingly, she's already made it absolutely clear that she doesn't intend to get bent over the negotiating table - excuse the vivid imagery.

It's one thing playing hardball to assert yourself in negotiations, but the EU needs to understand and accept the whole ethos behind Brexit, i.e. making our own laws and controlling our own borders.

If they can't move beyond this basic principle, the whole process is a waste of time. They should first be looking at the common ground, where there are mutual benefits, giving them a platform to tackle the tougher questions later.

[stevewinn]

9 minutes ago, LV-426 said:

I honestly can't see the next two years ending in anything other than "no deal."

We're going to see these stories every week with Eurocrats falling over each other to demand this, that and the other.

If, as expected, May wins the general election convincingly, she's already made it absolutely clear that she doesn't intend to get bent over the negotiating table - excuse the vivid imagery.

It's one thing playing hardball to assert yourself in negotiations, but the EU needs to understand and accept the whole ethos behind Brexit, i.e. making our own laws and controlling our own borders.

If they can't move beyond this basic principle, the whole process is a waste of time. They should first be looking at the common ground, where there are mutual benefits, giving them a platform to tackle the tougher questions later.

apparently if the UK doesn't pay or agree the "divorce" bill upfront they wont negotiate trade anyway. We were told these EU negotiators were experts. i'd hate to see the novices. Next to watch for is leaks, deliberate of course but useful to further a position. one in which they've painted themselves into. 

We really need to say **** off. when the drivel comes from the EU.

Edited April 26, 2017 by stevewinn

[Space Commander Travis]

meanwhile, in the Telegrapgh, I think it was, David Cameron Says Britain Must Pay Brexit Divorce Bill as Theresa May Meets EU negotiators in Downing Street 

The man truly is a traitor and a quisling. He ought to be put on trial for treason and shot by firing squad outside Buckingham palace alongside Blair. That'd draw the crowds. 

[bee]

Just now, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

 

The man truly is a traitor and a quisling. He ought to be put on trial for treason and shot by firing squad outside Buckingham palace alongside Blair. That'd draw the crowds. 

.

yeah - that could be a popular non~partisan event to bring the country together --

 

.

 

Edited April 27, 2017 by bee

[keithisco]

Todays news is that Merkel and her Bundestag are holding a series of internal meetings to emphasise the German red-lines and demands during the upcoming Brexit negotiations.

Interestingly, Merkel has stated that the UK MUST hold meaningful discussions with the EU PRIOR to the official negotiations beginning ... isn't this exactly what the UK has been pressing for all along and been royally rebuffed by the Commission negotiators who have been demanding NO negotiations until the UK "bends over" and agrees to pay whatever exorbitant divorce bill it is given??

Interesting that France, Germany, and Spain have so far been in the vanguard with their national demands over EU demands.

[keithisco]

In another move by the EU today, reported by the impartial BBC (completely unrelated to the French election of course )

Quote

 

The far-right National Front (FN) of French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen may have defrauded the European Parliament of about €5m (£4m; $5.4m), EU sources say.

It is more than twice the sum initially estimated in an inquiry into FN staff.

The parliament suspects the money went to FN assistants who were not really working for MEPs, but were engaged in FN party work in France.

The allegations - denied by the FN - have now gone to French investigators.

Ms Le Pen is campaigning for the second-round vote in the presidential election on 7 May. Her rival, liberal centrist Emmanuel Macron, is ahead of her in opinion polls.

The alleged fraudulent payments - from 2012 onwards - concern her and several other FN MEPs. The FN is highly critical of the EU, rejecting its liberal, free market agenda.

 

Source

There is, of course, plenty more anti-FN reporting in the linked article above - but I am sure that BBC is not wanting to influence the Expat-French vote here in the UK

Edited April 27, 2017 by keithisco

[stevewinn]

8 hours ago, keithisco said:

Todays news is that Merkel and her Bundestag are holding a series of internal meetings to emphasise the German red-lines and demands during the upcoming Brexit negotiations.

Interestingly, Merkel has stated that the UK MUST hold meaningful discussions with the EU PRIOR to the official negotiations beginning ... isn't this exactly what the UK has been pressing for all along and been royally rebuffed by the Commission negotiators who have been demanding NO negotiations until the UK "bends over" and agrees to pay whatever exorbitant divorce bill it is given??

Interesting that France, Germany, and Spain have so far been in the vanguard with their national demands over EU demands.

We were told the EU had appointed their negotiating team headed by the seasoned master of French and EU diplomacy, namely Michel Barnier (chief negotiator) followed by  Sabine Weyand - one of "the Commission's best and brightest", according to its president, Jean-Claude Juncker - was picked as Mr Barnier's deputy chief negotiator. then messrs, Donald Tusk and Didier Seeuws. Yet, all we keep hearing from is the leaders of Germany, Spain, French, including the EU president. Jean Claude Drunker. Its almost like they have no confidence in the team they have picked or worse still the EU still hasn't got its house in order. its a shambles to date, and that shambles fills me with confidence as the UK heads into the first rounds of negotiating.

As Keith said a few weeks ago, the UK-EU negotiations are going to be a fruitless effort. The UK was ready to start trade talks the EU needed more time, so much time we've decided to hold a general election in the lull period - the only real work that needs doing is for the UK to prepare for no deal and introduce measures over that 2 year period, even if that means withholding further payments to the EU, seeing how the EU accounts have irregularities and are either signed off incomplete or not signed off at all, if a private corporation or company did the same they'd be in court and going to prison. the last thing the EU needs is a court case exposing its books and fraud levels within.

Edited April 27, 2017 by stevewinn

[keithisco]

29 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

We were told the EU had appointed their negotiating team headed by the seasoned master of French and EU diplomacy, namely Michel Barnier (chief negotiator) followed by  Sabine Weyand - one of "the Commission's best and brightest", according to its president, Jean-Claude Juncker - was picked as Mr Barnier's deputy chief negotiator. then messrs, Donald Tusk and Didier Seeuws. Yet, all we keep hearing from is the leaders of Germany, Spain, French, including the EU president. Jean Claude Drunker. Its almost like they have no confidence in the team they have picked or worse still the EU still hasn't got its house in order. its a shambles to date, and that shambles fills me with confidence as the UK heads into the first rounds of negotiating.

As Keith said a few weeks ago, the UK-EU negotiations are going to be a fruitless effort. The UK was ready to start trade talks the EU needed more time, so much time we've decided to hold a general election in the lull period - the only real work that needs doing is for the UK to prepare for no deal and introduce measures over that 2 year period, even if that means withholding further payments to the EU, seeing how the EU accounts have irregularities and are either signed off incomplete or not signed off at all, if a private corporation or company did the same they'd be in court and going to prison. the last thing the EU needs is a court case exposing its books and fraud levels within.

Well stated Steve, particularly the 2nd paragraph, which I think exposes the real reasons for not pushing forward with the negotiations. As soon as it was mentioned that the UK would expect to see a fully audited account for the bill that they want to present the UK with, I am sure there was a collective sharp intake of breath!

The EU27 knows that it cannot present a false or incomplete audited bill to the world's foremost banking and accounting centre (certainly on a level with New York) without it being ripped to shreds for ANY irregularities.

A message for Frau Merkel: The UK is not under any "illusion" that it will keep the over-rated benefits of full membership after it leaves because it would mean accepting the 4 Pillars of the EU. Is that clear enough for you Frau Merkel? 

[LV-426]

Merkel's Brexit stance shows need for Tory poll win - May

"Angela Merkel's comments about the UK's Brexit stance show how "tough" negotiations will be, Theresa May says.

The German chancellor said some Britons had "illusions" that trade talks could take place at the same time as negotiating the terms UK's exit.

The UK PM claimed this proved she needed "the strongest possible hand" in the talks."

She's absolutely right.

Can you imagine the alternatives?

Farron still thinks he can stop Brexit with a second vote, and it would inevitably be a choice of "Remain in the EU" or "Accept this pathetic deal we've negotiated, to effectively give you no choice but to choose to remain in the EU."

Corbyn, using my previous analogy - I'm sure there's an additional pun in there - would be handing Merkel and Co. the lube before he even arrived at the table. His plan for unilateral rights for EU residents in Britain has already shown just how weak his negotiating position would be, even if he honors the referendum result.

[keithisco]

What if Brexit is too successful?

Quote

Brexit is embarrassingly successful so far. Since the vote, Britain’s stockmarkets have surged. Its politics is unifying for the coming election, according to polls. And now new figures are in on the all-important foreign direct investment (FDI).

FDI measures real physical investments made by foreign companies into Britain. Not just the financial side. It means jobs, productivity growth and often trade for British people. So what did the numbers tell us?

British FDI surged in 2016 according to the OECD. We haven’t hit the heights seen before the financial crisis of 2008, but those were the days of the bubble. These days we’re leaving the EU, which is supposed to be a disaster. But the UK accounted for the bulk of the FDI increase for the EU and we’re second only to the US.

A few major deals represented much of the increase, but even without them we did well. AB InBev bought SABMiller, Shell bought BG Group, and Softbank bought ARM Holdings. The deals went ahead despite Brexit. And the big deals are set to continue with Google and Amazon expanding here.

This is an enormous vote of confidence in Britain from people willing to put their money where their mouth is. Our economic future is boosted.

The political implications of these results are more difficult to figure out. It’s hard to untangle whether the bumper FDI means Brexit is a good move, or whether companies just don’t care about it. But either way, it shows another prediction of Brexit doom is evaporating.

Thanks to Nick Hubble from Capital & Conflict

[keithisco]

What's the EU without the UK?

Quote

The EU is struggling with a long list of problems. It’s dramatically weaker without the UK. If Brexit unshackles Britain and we make decent policy with decent results, the future of Europe is something you should worry about.

Europeans face a stark choice between dismantling much of the EU dream and becoming more like the UK, or it could face a series of exits from other EU members.

The EU failing might seem like a vindication of Brexit. But the typical continental political leader who would lead that charge is no Daniel Hannan, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Nigel Farage. The EU would devolve into a nationalism that is protectionist and dangerous to economic and political stability. Including ours.

Britain might seek to be pro-trade upon leaving the EU. But there’s no guarantee that the EU and its member states will respond in kind. They certainly haven’t so far. Angela Merkel’s recent speech to the EU is cause for concern. But she has her own issues to be concerned about now the UK is leaving. Will the EU cope?

Britain could be better off outside the EU. But how will the EU fare without Britain, and how will this affect us?

Without our influence, the EU would have looked very different. As a 2013 research paper put it, “On the one hand, a withdrawal could tip the EU towards protectionism, exacerbate existing division, or unleash centrifugal forces leading to the EU’s unravelling. Alternatively, the EU could free itself of its most awkward member, making the EU easier to lead and more effective.”

Last year, in the wake of Brexit, Carnegie Europe asked a series of experts how the EU would look without Britain. They all said the EU would continue. But it has lost a key influence on matters of diplomacy, security and trade.

Many EU nations hid behind the British veto on proposed policies in the past, argued Fraser Cameron from the EU-Russia Centre. They will have to come forward now and voice their anti-EU views, or be swept up in the creeping federalism. The UK is no longer holding back the tide. John Peet from The Economist explained how the EU has lost its most pro-trade member. Remember, the EU is a protectionist bloc to begin with. Losing the UK’s pro-trade influence on policy doesn’t bode well for future trade.

If the EU sets a course for expansion when its members are leaving and considering leaving, it looks delusional. Hopefully it will see Brexit as a wake-up call to reform

Thanks again to Nick Hubble Capital & Conflict

[keithisco]

This is the Donald Tusk letter delivered to the EU27 today regarding the negotiations. This is the pre-amble to tomorrows meeting with the EU 27:
 

Quote

 

Invitation letter by President Donald Tusk to the members of the European Council (Art. 50)

Following the United Kingdom's notification of withdrawal from the European Union, we will meet on Saturday for the first time as the formal European Council of 27 to adopt guidelines for the upcoming Brexit negotiations. 

Let me highlight one element of our proposed guidelines, which I believe is key for the success of these negotiations, and therefore needs to be precisely understood and fully accepted. I am referring to the idea of a phased approach, which means that we will not discuss our future relations with the UK until we have achieved sufficient progress on the main issues relating to the UK's withdrawal from the EU. This is not only a matter of tactics, but - given the limited time frame we have to conclude the talks - it is the only possible approach. 

In other words, before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past. We need to secure the best guarantees for our citizens and their families. Guarantees that are effective, enforceable, non-discriminatory and comprehensive, and which should be accompanied by simple and smooth administrative procedures. We should also agree with the UK that all financial obligations undertaken by the EU of 28 will be honoured also by the UK. Finally, in order to protect the peace and reconciliation process described by the Good Friday Agreement, we should aim to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. 

Only once we collectively determine in the European Council that sufficient progress has been made on all these issues, will we be in a position to hold preparatory talks on the future relationship with the UK. I would like us to unite around this key principle during the upcoming summit, so that it is clear that progress on people, money and Ireland must come first. And we have to be ready to defend this logic during the upcoming negotiations.

Our meeting will start at 12.30 with an exchange of views with the President of the European Parliament. Following this exchange, we will gather for a working lunch, where we will adopt the guidelines and have a broader debate on Brexit to help inform the future negotiations. Given the constructive attitude that you have shown during our preparations, I expect that we will be able to conclude by 16.00

 

Source:

Live streaming available here: 

Edited April 28, 2017 by keithisco

[Unusual Tournament]

On 27 April 2017 at 7:40 PM, keithisco said:

Todays news is that Merkel and her Bundestag are holding a series of internal meetings to emphasise the German red-lines and demands during the upcoming Brexit negotiations.

Interestingly, Merkel has stated that the UK MUST hold meaningful discussions with the EU PRIOR to the official negotiations beginning ... isn't this exactly what the UK has been pressing for all along and been royally rebuffed by the Commission negotiators who have been demanding NO negotiations until the UK "bends over" and agrees to pay whatever exorbitant divorce bill it is given??

Interesting that France, Germany, and Spain have so far been in the vanguard with their national demands over EU demands.

The problem for everyone is that the UK is leaving but they want to keep their privileges in free trade. The EU doesn't want to give that much arguing that it would be unfair on existing members that follow all the rules. I don't believe that Merkel want's any thing meaningful other than to punish the UK and maybe May should just accept that and leave. The EU will also suffer and probably more so. Of course the EU will also be free to commit to closer federal ties which would make the economic pain of of the UK leaving bearable.  

[Unusual Tournament]

On 27 April 2017 at 6:25 PM, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

meanwhile, in the Telegrapgh, I think it was, David Cameron Says Britain Must Pay Brexit Divorce Bill as Theresa May Meets EU negotiators in Downing Street 

The man truly is a traitor and a quisling. He ought to be put on trial for treason and shot by firing squad outside Buckingham palace alongside Blair. That'd draw the crowds. 

I agree, one should wonder who's side David Cameron is really on. This really has become a spiteful episode. 

[hetrodoxly]

Wee Jimmy.

[keithisco]

So, the Special European Council (Art 50) meeting of the EU 27 has finished, and all we have learned is that the cost of assembling them all together comes out of the EU28 budget.  Will these meetings to which we are not invited form part of the UK Divorce Bill, along with the EU 27 insisting that we pay the cost of their relocation of the European Medical Agency, and European Banking Authority from London?

 

[Black Monk]

What if you want to vote Conservatives in this election in order to help Brexit but the Conservative candidate in your constituency is pro-Remoan?

Edited April 30, 2017 by Black Monk

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, Black Monk said:

What if you want to vote Conservatives in this election in order to help Brexit but the Conservative candidate in your constituency is pro-Remoan?

The Tory Candidate can be three line whipped into line.

[stevewinn]

17 hours ago, keithisco said:

So, the Special European Council (Art 50) meeting of the EU 27 has finished, and all we have learned is that the cost of assembling them all together comes out of the EU28 budget.  Will these meetings to which we are not invited form part of the UK Divorce Bill, along with the EU 27 insisting that we pay the cost of their relocation of the European Medical Agency, and European Banking Authority from London?

 

A lot is being made of this 'divorce' bill, the Pro-EU, UK Media are all over it like a rash. But what they don't say is how much is coming the UK's way. Like you've mentioned if we are being excluded from meetings etc... then money is owed.

The EU is obsessed about money, that's been the language so far, but then again its what they are running out of, the UK represents 12% of their budget.

Has anyone else noticed how the EU is the one whose placing demands, the UK must do this, the UK must ensure that. I don't think they understand how negotiations work. they are under the false presumption they can still dictate to us like we'll always be a member.

I seen a headline on Sky News stating Jean Claude Druncker after he met with Theresa May, apparently we have underestimated how hard Brexit is going to be. it did make me laugh.

Also Donald Tusk saying the UK must first ensure the rights of EU citizens in the UK, having the right to live, work and study. - Well, we can agree to that in return for the EU to open trade talks at the same time after all it makes sense - apparently if we hard brexit it will cost thousands of jobs, well if that's true why would we need the continuation of supply, of cheap eastern European labour for jobs that will no longer exist.

 

Edited April 30, 2017 by stevewinn

[Black Monk]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The Tory Candidate can be three line whipped into line.

That's a good point. I never thought of that.

 

[Space Commander Travis]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The Tory Candidate can be three line whipped into line.