Is North Korea really a problem?

[imrunningthismonkeyfarm]

What would be the end game if Trump blew the crap out of North Korea?

Would Iran be next on his list?

[Gromdor]

Technically, we just have a cease-fire with them.  We never managed to "blow the crap" out of them in the beginning.

[and then]

11 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

We never managed to "blow the crap" out of them in the beginning.

Actually, we did.  We just didn't have the resolve to do the same to China also.  Obviously, today is a different situation and if the world is generally behind us in demanding regime change because of the danger the little guy poses, China is more apt to get on board and negotiate a solution with us.  If not, and our choice is to put up with a nuclear armed menace that is capable of launching nukes on us at any time, what other options would you consider effective?  If having a deliverable nuke makes a nut job regime untouchable, eventually the world is going to get nuked, regardless, so why give them that power at all?  Frankly, if a million NORKs or a million Americans have to die and I get to choose, goodbye NORKs.  

[The Caspian Hare]

If it goes down on the peninsula, everyone will be busy dealing with the resulting refugees and reconstruction for the foreseeable future, and with trying to reeducate a population that has basically been living in a prison/cult for its whole existence

[and then]

4 minutes ago, The Russian Hare said:

If it goes down on the peninsula, everyone will be busy dealing with the resulting refugees and reconstruction for the foreseeable future, and with trying to reeducate a population that has basically been living in a prison/cult for its whole existence

That is a very unpredictable variable, isn't it?  Would they actually be willing to fight an insurgency against their neighbors and kin down south?  Maybe... who knows.  

[MWoo7]

16 minutes ago, The Russian Hare said:

everyone will be busy dealing with the resulting refugees and reconstruction for the foreseeable future, and with trying to reeducate a population that has basically been living in a prison/cult for its whole existence

Of course China will be there with open arms to gently cotyle/coddle their children into enlightenment.

 

/sarcasm

[Lilly]

To answer the question: Is North Korea really a problem? first answer this question: Is an utter lunatic with nuclear weapons really a problem?

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

23 minutes ago, MWoo7 said:

Of course China will be there with open arms to gently cotyle/coddle their children into enlightenment.

 

/sarcasm

I honestly don't think China wants anything to do with North Korea beyond using it to annoy America. I suspect Kimmy's he a little visit from the Chinese Ambassador telling him in no uncertain terms that he's replaceable, it's probsbly why the brother was killed, so the Chinese couldn't replace Kimmy with him.

[Tatetopa]

25 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

 

51 minutes ago, MWoo7 said:

Of course China will be there with open arms to gently cotyle/coddle their children into enlightenment.

 

/sarcasm

I honestly don't think China wants anything to do with North Korea beyond using it to annoy America.

 

Annoy us, distract us, and use for bargaining.  While NK is throwing a tantrum, is anybody watching the  South China Sea, or Chinese trade delegations around the world? If China helps with NK, US might back off on currency manipulation accusations and allow China to keep some sweet trade deals.   Almost like rewarding your neighbor for silencing his barking dog.

[Apyr]

Well, North Korea's #1 ally China has just turned against them, so I doubt that a war against NK would be much of a problem. Unless Kim Jong-goon goes apesh*t and attacks Japan / South Korea because of US intervention.

Otherwise, you might as well squash a termite before it builds its nest. A nest of nuclear warheads, that is.

[DarkHunter]

With the recent deployment of about 150,000 soldiers to the North Korea Chinese border I doubt any potential war with North Korea would last more then a week or have significant casualties.

Assuming a war would break out, which is a massive assumption in and of itself, that many troops on the border can ultimately mean one of three things and only one truly makes sense.

The first is that the troops are there to prevent refugees from flooding into China.  Given the length of the border, the amount of troops, and expected number of refugees that amount of troops would make sense.  The problem is that China does not want a united Korea that is friendly to the United States on its border and that is exactly what would happen if China didn't intervene in the conflict.  If China assumes North Korea could fight to a stalemate this would make sense but I don't think anyone believes North Korea could fight South Korea to a stalemate let alone the United States and any nations that might come help out South Korea.

The second possibility is that the troops are there to intervene on North Korea's behalf but the numbers are far to low.  It's only 150,000 troops which is a lot but North Korea's standing army is about 700,000 and South Korea's is about 675,000 while for reserves North Korea has I believe 4.9 million and South Korea has 2.5 million.  150,000 troops wouldn't be able to really prove any significant advantage especially considering the distance they would have to travel to get to the front lines.  Unless China would be able to guarantee a victory over South Korea in a few days I can't see them actively getting involved in any offensive action without a drawn out war happening first.

The last option is that the 150,000 is meant to remove Kim Jong Un and install a more easily controlled North Korean government.  Currently it seems that China may have lost control over Kim Jong Un and taking him out and replacing him with a more easily controlled government would fix the control problem along with keeping a buffer state on China's border, could also be good publicity for China if handled correctly.  But the only problem is the number of troops are too low unless China is expecting large segments of the North Korean military to defect and aid the Chinese troops, which given relatively recent purges done by Kim Jong Un it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Ultimately it seems to me only option three really makes sense but that all assumes that a conflict is about to start which I'm still not sure about.

[docyabut2]

Quote

North Korea will go on testing their nukes bombs,  but they know better to actually drop one out side their country, they would be annihilated  in a minute.  

 

[MWoo7]

2 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

China to keep some sweet trade deals.   Almost like rewarding your neighbor for silencing his barking dog.

premium

14 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

 

 

14 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

 

k it

"""""   North Korea will go on testing their nukes bombs,  but they know better to actually drop one out side their country, they would be annihilated  in a minute. 

"""""" quote   BYdocyabut2

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by MWoo7

[MWoo7]

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

assumption

the best !

oh no ...good grief, a boatload of kids(raising kids) but running out of pinot noir? now that's crazy.

 

HOLY CRAPPOLA !

what's with these old likes hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhahahaahhhahahaaa!

Edited April 15, 2017 by MWoo7

[+susieice]

N. Korea's Day of the Sun celebration.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/14/asia/north-korea-day-of-the-sun/index.html?sr=fbcnni041517north-korea-day-of-the-sun0130AMVODtopLink&linkId=36535461

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/04/15/north-korea-parade-will-ripley-lklv.cnn/video/playlists/intl-latest-world-videos/

Edited April 15, 2017 by susieice

[Kurzweil]

the suspense is killing me

[Likely Guy]

1 minute ago, Kurzweil said:

the suspense is killing me

Hopefully not.

[Space Commander Travis]

Only vile (and possibly foul) dictatorships that were a menace to the stability of the world would do anything so crass as to blatantly flaunt testing of nuclear weapons in defiance of the world. 

 

Introducing the new, Improved, now Even More Accurate B61-12 Gravity Nuclear Bomb!  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-14/us-conducts-successful-field-test-new-nuclear-gravity-bomb 

 

Noe even better than ever before! I can't wait to try it out! Now where's a few beautiful babies that Ivanka can cry about? 

 

[bee]

.

what I can say at the moment is that I don't want large numbers of North Korean citizens slaughtered 
in a military attack -  

apart from the nuclear weapons and the crazy talk they seem to keep themselves pretty much to themselves -

and if the problem is just the nuclear weapons then can't they be disabled with an Electro Magnetic Pulse
thingy -- or something similar -- ?

After what the NK leadership has said / threatened... I doubt a nuclear missile would get very far if one was launched -
the bases must have been under the microscope for years and contingency plans made for such an event - ?

I'm not sure how easy or possible it would be for them to even get a massive nuclear detonation to work in an
attack situation - let alone actually successfully target the US and this is probably why nothing has been 'done' 
about them up till now...?

Re the OP question -- not sure what the end game could be but it must all be tied up with China somehow --

.

[DieChecker]

12 hours ago, Gromdor said:

Technically, we just have a cease-fire with them.  We never managed to "blow the crap" out of them in the beginning.

I think if the Koreans had the "crap" blown out of them is up to debate. Because the UN forces did push the North Koreans basically back into China, and it wasn't until the Chinese got involved with backing the NK that they pushed back to the armistice line.

 

[DieChecker]

To the OP question, if the NK are a real threat... I'd say yes. They continue to develop longer range delivery systems, and increased warhead yields. If we assume they aren't idiots, then even a fishing boat could be a delivery system, and could show up in San Francisco Bay and go off. Perhaps even by remote control.

Much like checking everyone for metal weapons at the airport, US Customs searching all cargo containers at US ports is just for show. A real terrorist nuke could just sail up in a yacht, or big fishing boat. Seattle, Portland, Vancouver (I know that's Canada, but does Kim know that?), San Francisco, Los Angles, San Diego... All major west coast cities that could be severely hit by a sea (or river in Portland's case) borne nuke.

[South Alabam]

North Korea's leader has threatened to launch a nuclear weapon at the U.S. They do have a nuclear weapons program, and have been testing missiles. If he was to launch a nuclear missile, we failed to down it,  and somehow it had the range, and did detonate over a U.S city and kill millions, North Korea would get owned by the world. You cannot have a bully running around the neighborhood threatening everybody, with weapons to back up the threat. North Korea is a deadly threat.

[White Unicorn]

15 hours ago, Lilly said:

To answer the question: Is North Korea really a problem? first answer this question: Is an utter lunatic with nuclear weapons really a problem?

Any country is a problem that has nukes.

Too many accidents have happened. False detection of first strike was not acted upon in time. Then we have accidental meltdowns. 

A crazy dictator is worse so of course he's been a bigger problem. 

Personally when I heard that US finally tried out the MOAB in Afghanistan, I thought to myself it would be a good weapon to use on NK. They might have tested that for more than one reason.

 Last I heard we knew about  the area where their nuclear arsenal is stored and a lot of it is underground. If we used that it would be more contained in one area. Just speculation on my part but  if Kim keeps provoking everyone that might be a possibility. 

 

 

[Merc14]

9 hours ago, Manfred von Dreidecker said:

Only vile (and possibly foul) dictatorships that were a menace to the stability of the world would do anything so crass as to blatantly flaunt testing of nuclear weapons in defiance of the world. 

 

Introducing the new, Improved, now Even More Accurate B61-12 Gravity Nuclear Bomb!  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-14/us-conducts-successful-field-test-new-nuclear-gravity-bomb 

 

Noe even better than ever before! I can't wait to try it out! Now where's a few beautiful babies that Ivanka can cry about? 

 

You're getting boring, why don't you give it a break.

[Kurzweil]

3 minutes ago, Merc14 said:

You're getting boring, why don't you give it a break.

But he's making me look good.