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imrunningthismonkeyfarm

Is North Korea really a problem?

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and then
9 hours ago, bee said:

.

I understand the argument that if it's them or us...you (we) choose us -

but what happened to MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction..that is supposed to have kept the lid on the nuclear
threat for decades..?

You may have noticed I don't think a major detonation of a nuclear weapon in an attack situation is as easy as
we are lead to believe whether from a launch pad or submarine -although that isn't a very popular point of view -- :)

.  

MAD worked because the parties involved were sane.  There is a real concern that this guy may not be.  Sane people don't typically execute people by tying them to a stake and dropping a mortar round on them or feeding them to dogs while they're still breathing.  No one over here wants to blow up millions of North or South Koreans.  They also don't want to be thinking about this little despot sucker punching us back to the 1800's technologically.As to a nuke detonating when and where a regime desires it to do, that is what all the NK testing is about.  There is certainly a learning curve for such technology but any actor with the resources of a nation behind him can achieve a reliable nuke in time.  The question is a simple one, strategically.  Do we wait and watch him and continue to listen to his rhetoric while his scientists perfect a weapon that can be delivered, or do we intervene with force - hopefully with China willing to stand aside - to stop the threat.  Remember the history of this family.  Bill Clinton was faced with the same kind of impasse back in the 90's and chose the carrot approach.  We promised the guy nuclear reactors for power generation and we gave them huge amounts of food.  a few years later, they tested their first nuke.  They are obviously on track to create an intercontinental warhead delivery system.  THOSE have only one use.  This family is a criminal regime - a crime family, period.  They hold millions of their own citizens as well as millions of S. Koreans hostage to the whim of a single thug.  Remember also, that China could stop this in a matter of weeks or months by putting a total stop to all trade with them.  I think the decision to introduce the THAAD anti-missile system to S.Korea may put China into a better mood to negotiate this issue.  At some point now, Xi and his generals have to assume that a U.S. navy Aegis cruiser will be used to shoot down one of Kim's test launches and that will risk an opening of hostilities.  Once the shooting begins, NK is going DOWN.  Millions may die on both sides of the DMZ but that is the price of waiting and watching a regime that has signaled in every way possible that it has no plans of working and playing well with others.  If it happens, I will blame China and I hope the world will, also.  But I doubt that.  After the threat is removed, everyone will take up a hue and cry like our dear friend Manfred.

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Einsteinium
11 minutes ago, Bama13 said:

I heard this same talk when Reagan was elected. Yet we're still here and the world didn't end. 

Trump is no Reagan, but I think Trump has picked an excellent national security team that will prevent him from doing something too stupid. Mattis is a great pick for Sec Def, and McMaster is also a great pick in my opinion for Nat Sec Adv.

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Dark_Grey
5 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

Mattis is a great pick for Sec Def, and McMaster is also a great pick in my opinion for Nat Sec Adv.

Mattis was reportedly the one who ordered the "mother of all bombs". His complaint with the previous administration regarding ISIS: they "wouldn't let us do our job". I think ISIS is getting the message.

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Einsteinium
19 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

Mattis was reportedly the one who ordered the "mother of all bombs". His complaint with the previous administration regarding ISIS: they "wouldn't let us do our job". I think ISIS is getting the message.

Sure, but without political and social solutions war is not going to solve the problem of terrorism, and as is often the case only fuels the propaganda machine terrorists use to recruit more into their ranks.

We cannot solve this problem with our military alone, we can try, but it will just be a never-ending cycle of death and destruction. A never ending war, but perhaps that is what our leaders want.

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Dark_Grey
28 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

Sure, but without political and social solutions war is not going to solve the problem of terrorism, and as is often the case only fuels the propaganda machine terrorists use to recruit more into their ranks.

We cannot solve this problem with our military alone, we can try, but it will just be a never-ending cycle of death and destruction. A never ending war, but perhaps that is what our leaders want.

We also need a de-education/propaganda war

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Merc14
38 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

Sure, but without political and social solutions war is not going to solve the problem of terrorism, and as is often the case only fuels the propaganda machine terrorists use to recruit more into their ranks.

We cannot solve this problem with our military alone, we can try, but it will just be a never-ending cycle of death and destruction. A never ending war, but perhaps that is what our leaders want.

While I agree in principle, in the case of ISIS I don't believe there is anyway to negotiate, they are far too radical and, frankly, insane to do anything with other than wipe from the face of the earth.   Break them financially and kill them whenever possible until they simply disappear from history.

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Einsteinium
7 minutes ago, Merc14 said:

While I agree in principle, in the case of ISIS I don't believe there is anyway to negotiate, they are far too radical and, frankly, insane to do anything with other than wipe from the face of the earth.   Break them financially and kill them whenever possible until they simply disappear from history.

I agree with you, but we need to consider the conditions that allowed ISIS to rise in the first place, if those conditions are not addressed another ISIS like group will simply rise and fill the vacuum. That is the bigger picture problem with terrorism. It is like the mythical hydra, cut off one head and 2 more heads will grow in its place. That is why we need political and social/religious help as well as military force if we are serious about actually solving the problem of Islamic terrorism rather than just using it to maintain our military readiness which is what we seem to be doing currently.

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Merc14
31 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

I agree with you, but we need to consider the conditions that allowed ISIS to rise in the first place, if those conditions are not addressed another ISIS like group will simply rise and fill the vacuum. That is the bigger picture problem with terrorism. It is like the mythical hydra, cut off one head and 2 more heads will grow in its place. That is why we need political and social/religious help as well as military force if we are serious about actually solving the problem of Islamic terrorism rather than just using it to maintain our military readiness which is what we seem to be doing currently.

Well, then we either stay there forever or find another ruthless tyrant to replace the one we killed as nothing else seems to work.

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Dark_Grey
44 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

I agree with you, but we need to consider the conditions that allowed ISIS to rise in the first place, if those conditions are not addressed another ISIS like group will simply rise and fill the vacuum. That is the bigger picture problem with terrorism. It is like the mythical hydra, cut off one head and 2 more heads will grow in its place. That is why we need political and social/religious help as well as military force if we are serious about actually solving the problem of Islamic terrorism rather than just using it to maintain our military readiness which is what we seem to be doing currently.

11 minutes ago, Merc14 said:

Well, then we either stay there forever or find another ruthless tyrant to replace the one we killed as nothing else seems to work.

Install the most secular yet minority leader we can (a majority leader would slaughter the minorities). He must understand Islam and not be willing to take crap from any rebel factions. Unfortunately, democracy and Islam are largely incompatible so trying to instill Western values hasn't worked before and it won't work now. Islamic nations need an iron fist at the helm to squash rebel/radical factions as they appear...we have learned a lot from decades of changing regimes so let's put that practical knowledge to use. Opinions, opinions, my uneducated opinions...

 

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Einsteinium
1 hour ago, Merc14 said:

Well, then we either stay there forever or find another ruthless tyrant to replace the one we killed as nothing else seems to work.

We don't need to stay there forever, just for a few generations. People I know who were over there in places where the US had set up schools and was working with the population said that the kids who interacted with us over there loved us, even started to emulate us in some ways. We pull out and stop working on the social aspects over there and the militants destroy the schools and brainwash the kids. We would need to stay there, for at least one full generation, build schools and educate the kids, fight hard against the extremist brainwashing and indoctrination.

 

I don't think we have the stomach for that, too hard, easier to just bomb the **** out of them forever then to do the humanitarian work to change their mindset.

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susieice

And the mystery deepens. Is the USS Carl Vinson on it's way to the Korean Peninsula or heading to Australia for joint exercises? Chinese co-operation?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/carl-vinson-korea-trump/index.html

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Merc14
54 minutes ago, Einsteinium said:

We don't need to stay there forever, just for a few generations. People I know who were over there in places where the US had set up schools and was working with the population said that the kids who interacted with us over there loved us, even started to emulate us in some ways. We pull out and stop working on the social aspects over there and the militants destroy the schools and brainwash the kids. We would need to stay there, for at least one full generation, build schools and educate the kids, fight hard against the extremist brainwashing and indoctrination.

 

I don't think we have the stomach for that, too hard, easier to just bomb the **** out of them forever then to do the humanitarian work to change their mindset.

But we were staying there until Obama, against all advice, pulled us completely out.  We should never have gone back in after 911, that was a mistake.  I flew a lot of missions enforcing the "No fly zones" and I wondered why we were lighting that fuse back up. I understood the WMD thing and no doubt he had them (he has used them before) and sent them elsewhere but he was not a guy that set up terrorists.  Doesn't matter because afterwards we owned the mess and we shouldn't have left.  Ah well, no moves are good moves over there.

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Einsteinium
14 hours ago, Merc14 said:

But we were staying there until Obama, against all advice, pulled us completely out.  We should never have gone back in after 911, that was a mistake.  I flew a lot of missions enforcing the "No fly zones" and I wondered why we were lighting that fuse back up. I understood the WMD thing and no doubt he had them (he has used them before) and sent them elsewhere but he was not a guy that set up terrorists.  Doesn't matter because afterwards we owned the mess and we shouldn't have left.  Ah well, no moves are good moves over there.

I for once completely agree with you Merc.

The public was growing weary of the war over there though, If Obama had not pulled us out, you can bet Trump would have (or at least said he was going to, to appeal to populist sentiment, and then go back on his word once he was elected like he has done for so many other things).

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Space Commander Travis
16 hours ago, susieice said:

And the mystery deepens. Is the USS Carl Vinson on it's way to the Korean Peninsula or heading to Australia for joint exercises? Chinese co-operation?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/carl-vinson-korea-trump/index.html

i think it's all a hologram and there's really no such thing.

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Space Commander Travis
16 hours ago, Einsteinium said:

We don't need to stay there forever, just for a few generations. People I know who were over there in places where the US had set up schools and was working with the population said that the kids who interacted with us over there loved us, even started to emulate us in some ways. We pull out and stop working on the social aspects over there and the militants destroy the schools and brainwash the kids. We would need to stay there, for at least one full generation, build schools and educate the kids, fight hard against the extremist brainwashing and indoctrination.

 

I don't think we have the stomach for that, too hard, easier to just bomb the **** out of them forever then to do the humanitarian work to change their mindset.

Interesting thing is, it worked in Japan and Germany didn't it, surprisingly quickly. Look how quickly baseball became the national sport of Japan. And that was after firebombing the **** out of them (and attack a couple of nukes on Japan for good measure). Perhaps the difference is that Japan and Germany were cohesive societies without the religious sectarianism you get in any of thee countries that have been given "freedom" since the 1990s. 

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Space Commander Travis
17 hours ago, Dark_Grey said:

Install the most secular yet minority leader we can (a majority leader would slaughter the minorities). He must understand Islam and not be willing to take crap from any rebel factions.

B. Al-Assad would fit that description ... 

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susieice

Breaking news on CNN right now is that China has put it's bomber force on high alert, supposedly regarding N. Korea. A US official has allegedly said China ia prepping for a possible N. Korea event. Russian bombers are again very close to Alaska. CNN hasn't posted a feed for this yet on it's website.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-bombers-fly-near-alaskan-coast-again-n748611

N. Korea appears to be playing volleyball.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/asia/north-korea-nuclear-site-volleyball/

Edited by susieice

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Merc14
15 minutes ago, susieice said:

Breaking news on CNN right now is that China has put it's bomber force on high alert, supposedly regarding N. Korea. A US official has allegedly said China ia prepping for a possible N. Korea event. Russian bombers are again very close to Alaska. CNN hasn't posted a feed for this yet on it's website.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-bombers-fly-near-alaskan-coast-again-n748611

N. Korea appears to be playing volleyball.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/asia/north-korea-nuclear-site-volleyball/

I only see them defending their newly declared maritime zones that Japan and S. Korea have been "violating".  

http://www.theblaze.com/news/2013/11/28/chinas-air-force-on-high-alert-sends-warplanes-into-air-defense-zone/

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susieice

I don't know what to think about what's going on over there anymore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/asia/south-korea-worries-donald-trump-uss-carl-vinson/index.html

I sure hope you're right Merc! I don't see China and Russia teaming up. 

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RoofGardener

Sooo, another "foot in mouth" moment for Donald Trump. He publically announced that a powerful US strike group, based around the Nimitz-class carrier "Carl Vincent", was heading towards North Korea. 

Except.. it wasn't. It was actually sailing in the other direction to complete a training exercise with the Australian Navy. 

Well, it's on it's way NOW, but how embarrassing for Turmp. (the South Koreans wheren't too impressed either). 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39638012

On thing that set me wondering. Hypothetically..... suppose you gave orders to a naval force like this to attack a specific country. Now, I guess a US carrier is always on a high state of readyness. But... if given specific orders to attack a specific enemy, and if time permitted, wouldn't it want to re-organise its offensive and defensive systems to take into account the capabilities and equipment of that specific enemy ?

Perhaps re-organise its ready munitions supplies... re-arm its aircraft to best be able to deal with the specific enemy's air defences... perhaps ship weapons and supplies between itself and its escort ships ? Perhaps make requests to Space Command to reposition surveilance and communication satellites for optimal effect ? After all, a full-blown penetrating attack would be a MUCH more complex affair than just lobbing a few cruise missiles around. 

Is it possible that THIS is the reason that the task force didn't head towards NK straight away ? That Trump has already issued some form of attack order ? 

A bit worrying, really ?

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Merc14
47 minutes ago, susieice said:

I don't know what to think about what's going on over there anymore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/asia/south-korea-worries-donald-trump-uss-carl-vinson/index.html

I sure hope you're right Merc! I don't see China and Russia teaming up. 

This is popping up now and is in-line with what you posted earlier  http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/20/politics/us-north-korea-china/

3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Sooo, another "foot in mouth" moment for Donald Trump. He publically announced that a powerful US strike group, based around the Nimitz-class carrier "Carl Vincent", was heading towards North Korea. 

Except.. it wasn't. It was actually sailing in the other direction to complete a training exercise with the Australian Navy. 

Well, it's on it's way NOW, but how embarrassing for Turmp. (the South Koreans wheren't too impressed either). 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39638012

On thing that set me wondering. Hypothetically..... suppose you gave orders to a naval force like this to attack a specific country. Now, I guess a US carrier is always on a high state of readyness. But... if given specific orders to attack a specific enemy, and if time permitted, wouldn't it want to re-organise its offensive and defensive systems to take into account the capabilities and equipment of that specific enemy ?

Perhaps re-organise its ready munitions supplies... re-arm its aircraft to best be able to deal with the specific enemy's air defences... perhaps ship weapons and supplies between itself and its escort ships ? Perhaps make requests to Space Command to reposition surveilance and communication satellites for optimal effect ? After all, a full-blown penetrating attack would be a MUCH more complex affair than just lobbing a few cruise missiles around. 

Is it possible that THIS is the reason that the task force didn't head towards NK straight away ? That Trump has already issued some form of attack order ? 

A bit worrying, really ?

Actually the battlegroup was scheduled for a port call in Australia and turned around to patrol the south China Sea and thereby react to whatever of the two crises above erupt.  This has happened to me many time and plans change hourly sometimes as the situation changes. 

 

 

 

Edited by Merc14
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RoofGardener

HI there Merc,

I'm afraid I won't read the CNN link; I boycott all web pages that auto-play videos. However, it sounds like you are suggesting that the seeming "pause" may not be anything sinister after all ? 

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susieice

I'm just trying to take stock on what's being reported now.

1. The USS Carl Vinson is in fact in Australia and won't be near the Korean Peninsula until next week. S. Korea is mocking Trump for saying it was heading there.

2. China has it's military on high alert regarding N. Korea, but no one seems to be sure why.

3. N. Korea is playing volleyball at it's nuclear test site and swearing they are going to start shooting.

4. Russia keeps sending bombers very close to Alaska.

5. Trump is now talking about Iran. Iran is expected to speak sometime this afternoon.

I'm a little concerned about all this is going to play out, but I don't see Russia moving in conjunction with China. If anything, it's because of the Middle East. Putin is kind of sticking his own neck out now because I don't think China wants to get involved with him. I think they realize just how much of a threat Kim is to setting off bad things.

 

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Space Commander Travis
14 minutes ago, susieice said:

4. Russia keeps sending bombers very close to Alaska.

Well, Russia is very close to Alaska, as a former Vice-Presidential hopeful would tell you ... 

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Merc14
10 minutes ago, susieice said:

I'm just trying to take stock on what's being reported now.

1. The USS Carl Vinson is in fact in Australia and won't be near the Korean Peninsula until next week. S. Korea is mocking Trump for saying it was heading there.

this is from NBC news:

Pentagon Quietly Corrects Mattis Statement About the USS Vinson

Last week the White House said sending the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson into the waters around Korea would let the North Korean regime know the U.S. was serious. "We are sending an armada," said President Trump.

Then reporters noticed the Vinson's strike force was sailing away from Korea instead, toward a preplanned joint exercise with the Royal Australian Navy, apparently garbling the intended message to the Kim Jong Un regime.

The confusion started with a minor slip by Defense Secretary James Mattis during an April 11 press briefing. Mattis was asked if the U.S. was sending a signal to North Korea by very publicly redirecting the ship north. Mattis said the ship's change in itinerary had been made public because "she was originally headed in one direction for an exercise, and we canceled our role in that exercise ... We had to explain why she wasn't in that exercise."

In fact, the planned exercise was never canceled, and went forward as scheduled. It was a trip down to Fremantle, Australia, where crew families would've met their loved ones onshore, that was cancelled.

On Wednesday, the Navy quietly slipped a correction into the eight-day-old briefing transcript, inserting a note right after the Secretary's statement about the exercise: "Sic: The ship's port visit to Fremantle, Australia, was cancelled; the exercise with the Royal Australian navy is proceeding as planned."

This is just how it goes with carrier battlegroups.  I remember my wife traveling to Palma to meet the ship only for us to get turned around the night before and sent back to the eastern Med for something or other.  We pulled in a week after the families left.  Another time we left the Med and headed for Puerto Rico and a port call but got turned around because Libya and sent back t\o the straits only to have that order reversed and back south to the Island where our families had flown to meet us for a vacation. 

happened a few other times but I didn't have family waiting in the port so don't recall.  We were emergency recalled while in port as well in reaction to some crisis somewhere and frequently left guys in port who couldn't get back to the ship in time (we'd fly them out later).  First thing the president asks in a crisis is where are the carriers and how fast can they get there?

10 minutes ago, susieice said:

2. China has it's military on high alert regarding N. Korea, but no one seems to be sure why.

China's bombers are on high alert as a contingency for any action in N. Korea and their fighetrs and AWACS are actively patrolling their claimed Maritime Engagement Zone that tehg US, Japan and S' Korea refuse to honor (this is the air space they claim over the man-made islands they placed in the SC Sea.  This is an old issue between the two sides and nothing new.

10 minutes ago, susieice said:

3. N. Korea is playing volleyball at it's nuclear test site and swearing they are going to start shooting.

N. Korea's nuclear test site is in a cave far below ground, doesn't matter what is on the surface (no one air tests nuclear missiles today)

10 minutes ago, susieice said:

4. Russia keeps sending bombers very close to Alaska.

They have been doing this for the last couple of years and is actually not new.  Back during the cold war the Soviets continually flew surveillance and long range bombers down the west coast, well out of our air space,  as a freedom of navigation exercise (and to intimidate) and we do the same.  While aboard the carrier we would launch regularly to escort their aircraft as they overflew the ship so as to make sure any photo they sent back to the Kremlin had a Navy fighter in it. 

They stopped doing this after the USSR collapsed and just started back a few years ago.  As tensions rise and fall the quantity of flighst will rise and fall.

10 minutes ago, susieice said:

5. Trump is now talking about Iran. Iran is expected to speak sometime this afternoon.

I'm a little concerned about all this is going to play out, but I don't see Russia moving in conjunction with China. If anything, it's because of the Middle East. Putin is kind of sticking his own neck out now because I don't think China wants to get involved with him. I think they realize just how much of a threat Kim is to setting off bad things.

 

Hadn't heard this, thanks.

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